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FREE CBB Over-Under Thursday 11-26-15
OVER 157 Arkansas/Georgia Tech (CBB)
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Weather can always be a factor this time of year in Wisconsin. That's going to be the case tonight when Green Bay hosts Chicago.
The weather forecast is for 100 percent chance of rain. That's going to make the surface at Lambeau Field very choppy and slow. The temperature could reach under 32 degrees, too, being a night game. That would turn the rain into sleet making anything but short passes difficult to throw while affecting place-kicking.
Key injuries, Jay Cutler's poor history against Dom Capers and Green Bay's problems on offense also contribute to why I like this game to go under the total.
Out for Chicago are tight end Martellus Bennett and No. 2 wide receiver Eddie Royal. This will be the first game Cutler doesn't have Bennett this season. Top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery may not play either. He's more on the doubtful side due to a shoulder injury. The short week and weather conditions could factor in the Bears deciding to sit out Jeffery.
Jay Cutler is having his finest season. Much credit goes to new Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase for this. But Cutler has a horrible history against the Packers. Capers, the Packers defensive coordinator, has successfully attacked Cutler's weakness of getting skittish in the pocket when seeing new looks and facing pressure by blitzing from different areas using a multitude of fronts and looks. The Packers have the defensive line and secondary depth to do this.
The Bears have averaged just 15.7 points in 12 games against the Packers with Cutler under center. That number goes down to 10.5 points per game when the teams have played in Green Bay. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 20 times during the last eight meetings.
Green Bay's offense is down averaging fewer than 25 points per game while ranking 21st in total yards and 22nd in passing. The Packers led the NFL in scoring last year at 30.4 points per game. Only twice have the Packers scored more than 30 points this season.
Chicago's defense has shown steady improvement under defensive guru John Fox. The Packers are thin at wide receiver. Already without top threat Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers also will be missing his No. 4 wide receiver, Ty Montgomery, and No. 5 wideout Jared Abbrederis.
The Packers also could be without their excellent second-year center Corey Linsley, who injured an ankle last week. Again, playing on short week is not a plus to those injured while also heavily reducing the time coaches have for specific game planning and putting in offensive innovations. These two division rivals certainly know each other well so don't expect any surprises.
In Italy, take Livorno and Novaro to draw at +198.
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Thanksgiving Day Feast. The menu: 2 Big Sides, 2 Sweet totals and a Top Rated Dessert as we have you covered from Soup to nuts in NFL and College football. Free College hoops play below.
On Thanksgiving Day the College hoops play is on the Dayton Flyers +2 points at 9:00 eastern. The flyers are taking on Iowa tonight in a battle of 3-0 teams in a neutral court game. Dayton has played solid defense allowing just 55 per game so far and they are 30-7 vs non conference teams, 8-3 vs teams who average 77 or more points and 15-5 vs teams who allow 65 or less points. Iowa is just 2-9 to the spread in neutral court games and 17-38 with 5 or 6 days rest. We will back the better defensive team here tonight with Dayton. On Turkey day we have a tantalizing card up with a 6* Triple perfect NFL Totals and 3 more plays all are from Multiple perfect systems that are Thursday specific and are derived from the fines data available. In College Football its a Quad system Rivalry Game of the year. Dont miss this power packed feast all day and night. Jump on now and cash out big. For the free play in NCAAB action take the 2-3 points with Dayton. RV
Haimo's Sunday Afternoon NFL Thanksgiving Free Play Feast
***3 Star Total Play***
Play on the UNDER 46 points.
After a hot start to the season, the Falcons have fallen away badly. Most of their issues though have been on offense, as their secondary has been solid all season. The Falcons own the 12th ranked defense in the league, allowing 21.4 ppg, however they also own the league’s 2nd best home ground defense, allowing just 71.8 ypg – this will come in handy against the run heavy Vikings, who run the ball a lot through Peterson (understandably). The Vikings also own the league’s 2nd ranked defense, allowing a miserly 18.4 ppg. The Vikings will be keen to make amends after dropping a key game last week to the Packers, while the Falcons haven’t put up more than 21 points in their last 5 games straight (averaging just 17.6 ppg in those 5 games). This one doesn’t look like a shoot out and should fall UNDER.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Minnesota. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
For our free pick, take the UNDER 46 points BIG here.
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We want NO PART of a home Dog Auburn team that's lost 3 of their last 4 SEC games (1-3 SU & ATS) by a TD or more. Not impressed with their victory last Saturday as they were -33 point favorites in a non-conference battle against an over-matched Idaho squad. This Saturday they return to the SEC to host Alabama, who's won 8 STRAIGHT games since their only loss back on September 19th. That loss woke 'Bama up and they've been playing better football during the last 2 months while posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. With recent losses by Ohio State, Baylor and TCU, #2-ranked Alabama will secure their NCAA Playoff spot with a solid victory against SEC rival Auburn. This line has move up since opening at -13 points as the public continues to back Alabama, so be careful as this is an in-state rivalry game that have ended closer than expected in several previous meetings, such as last year's 55-44 home victory from Alabama, barely covering the -10 point spread. That rivalry factor moves this play to a 10* rating and bettors should consider Teasers, or wager before this line moves any higher. 10* Play On ALABAMA
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are on the bubble as far as the playoffs are concerned, and they need a win here at Stanford, and possibly some help from teams like Nebraska, Penn State or TCU. The Cardinal's playoff hopes are a little slimmer, but they've already punched a ticket to the PAC12 Championship Game, and a win over the Irish could keep them in the discussion. My money is on a Stanford team that has a far more impressive body of work.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Christian McCaffrey - The Heisman hopeful ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also rank back a 98 yard kick for a TD. He should find plenty of room to run against a Notre Dame team that surrendered 214 rushing yards to Boston College last week.
2. Injuries - The Irish are really banged up, and last week they lost leading rusher C.J. Prosise to a high ankle sprain. He's not likely to play on Saturday versus Stanford.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinal are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, and they've covered in seven of their last nine versus a team with a winning record.
Selection: This is a play on the Stanford Cardinal (Free)
Oregon State +35 1.1* Free Play
This is not one you'd run to play, but it is one of college football's oldest rivalry games. You have the tendency to throw things out at the end of the day. Oregon is getting so much credit for how they have played of late, but just a few weeks ago we were having a very different discussion. Oregon's defense is still not above average, and I could see Oregon State taking big chances down field that will pay off in this game as Oregon's secondary is a major weakness, and a big reason why they haven't held any opponent under 20 points in a game. Oregon State's players are treating this like a bowl game which means we will get max effort. If you are looking to play this like I am I would wait for the last possible second as I see this climbing to 37 or higher by game time. I also don't see how Oregon gets up for this game, they don't have anything to play for, they also just got done playing USC and Stanford so even though it's a rivalry game I don't see this team having great intensity. I would predict Oregon 49, Oregon State 27.
1* Free Play Patriots.
Tom Brady. Brock Osweiler. We could leave it at that and just say "enough said" and that would be ample reason enough to take the Patriots in this matchup. Osweiler looked alright vs. a struggling Bears team last week but now faces a much stiffer test obviously in defending champion New England. It's true that the Pats haven't completely dominated their last two opponents, winning 27-26 over the Giants and then holding on for a victory over the revenge minded Bills last Monday. Remember, Brady and New England beat both of these teams with significant injuries on both sides of the ball, a clear testament to how deep and well coached the Patriots really are. And how awesome Brady really is. Both the Giants and the Bills gave New England their best shots and the injured Pats STILL won. Is there any question in your mind that if New York and Buffalo played as well as they did in those contests, that they'd both have beaten the Broncos easily? Beating Jay Cutler and the Bears is one thing, but beating Brady and an albeit injured Patriots team is quite another. This is what Brady and head coach Tom Belichick live for. These are the moments that these two almost always dominate in. The fact that the team is injured is not going to matter. Brady or Osweiler? We'll highly recommend a second look at NEW ENGLAND in this one.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #116 Take Over in Marshall Thunder @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Friday 12 pm FS1) First place in the Eastern Division of Conference USA is on the line when 7-0 WKU takes on 6-1 in Marshall. Both teams can light up the scoreboard and thus we will not worry if WKU can cover the double digit spread and instead just focus on the over. When these two teams met last year 133 total points were scored. WKU is averaging 43 points per game and they should have no problem reaching that total again on Friday. WKU has gone over the posted total in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card highlighted by a top play on Saturday you do not want to miss. Doc’s Sports has shown a profit for four straight weeks in football and now is the time to jump on board with a handicapper that has 44 years of experience
Free Pick on Packers -
I think last week’s big win over the Vikings was just the beginning of a late season surge for the Packers, as I expect this team to get back to the form that saw them open the season 7-0. The thing about Green Bay’s 30-13 win over the Vikings is that it could have been an even bigger blowout. The Packers had to settle for 5 field goals in that contest.
The win over Minnesota also put Green Bay back in the drivers seat in the NFC North. However, there’s no time to relax, as they still have to play the Vikings again in Week 17 and both are currently sitting at 7-3. The last thing this team wants to do is follow up that big victory with a loss at home to the Bears.
Chicago is certainly going to be up for this game against their division rivals, but it’s also a tough spot for the Bears. Chicago had won 2 straight before last week’s loss to the Broncos, where they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime. Close losses like that can be difficult to bounce back from, especially on the road with a short week of rest.
The other factor here that can’t be overlooked is the fact that this is a prime time home game for Green Bay. It’s no secret that Rodgers and the Packers are at their best at home and rarely does Rodgers disappointment in the national spotlight at Lambeau. Green Bay is also going to be motivated here due to losing their last home game against Detroit, which brings up an interesting stat, as the Packers haven’t lost consecutive home games with Rodgers at quarterback since his first year as the starter.
Chicago is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total set at 45.5 to 49 points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road win. Take Green Bay!
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FREE CBB play Thursday 11-26-15
Mercer -5 (CBB)
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FREE CFB play Thursday 11-26-15
Texas +2 (CFB)
Pure Lock has a TOP NFL play for Thursday! Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and cashed a perfect 100% in College Football (bowls included) back in 2006! Pure Lock normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! Quality not quantity is how to make the big bucks! Pure Lock has had only one losing CFB season EVER! Time to smoke the man this year. Only two years below 60% in the history of Pure Lock! Highly regarded as the best Football handicapper in the world!
Pure Lock has a TOP CBB play for Thursday! Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and cashed a perfect 100% in College Football (bowls included) back in 2006! Pure Lock normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! Quality not quantity is how to make the big bucks! Pure Lock has had only one losing CFB season EVER! Time to smoke the man this year. Only two years below 60% in the history of Pure Lock! Highly regarded as the best Football handicapper in the world! 10-3 77% all sports run!
11/26 06:00 PM CB (509) DAYTON VS (510) IOWA (11/25 04:34 PM)
Take: (510) IOWA
Reason: Your free play for Thursday, November 26, 2015 is in college hoops between Dayton and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa looks to continue its impressive early season run when it takes on unbeaten Dayton in the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational on Thursday night in Orlando. The Hawkeyes come into the tournament after a week of rest following an 89-61 rout of Marquette with an experienced group that has high expectations after winning 22 games last season. Iowa has shot 50.8 percent from the field and drained 31 shots from 3-point range in the first three games with balanced scoring, led by 6-9 forward Jarrod Uthoff. Uthoff is averaging 16.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and two blocks while shooting 54.5 percent. The Hawkeyes are on a 7-2-1 ATS run, 5-2-1 ATS following a win. The Hawkeyes have won both meetings in the series, including an 84-75 triumph in the 2012 NIT. Play Iowa!
I'm recommending a play on USC plus the couple of points on Thursday afternoon. Wichita State at full strength will be a Final Four contender. But they aren't completely healthy and will likely miss star guard Fred VanVleet (hamstring). Backcourt depth is a little shallow right now with VanVleet's backup also out due to injury and lacking top flight guards is not a good situation when matched up against the USC Trojans. Andy Enfield said this would be the year at SC and so far he's right. The Trojans are off to a 4-0 start, Enfield has the players he wants, and they're playing the tempo he desires, averaging 92.5 ppg with no less than half-a-dozen players averaging in double figures in scoring. USC is a handful right now, even for a team as talented and as well-coached as the Shockers. USC is holding their opponents to less than 36% shooting and they're clobbering teams on the glass. We backed USC in one of their four covers and we'll recommend them here. USC plus the points on Thursday afternoon. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
This game has the 4-6 Bears at the 7-3 Packers. While the Bears have been playing Football I'm not sold on them. I think Rodgers will play tonight with a chip on his shoulders. Packers have won 10 of the last 11 with the Bears. Packers are retiring Bret Favre's Number at Halftime giving the Packers even more motivation. I think we are getting great value on the line due to how the Bears and Packers have been playing lately. We are taking a public side with the Packers I just feel that is the best side for the money. Take the Packers minus the points for a 15* winner. ***BE SURE TO CHECK OUT MY NFL PLATINUM CLUB PLAY TODAY BETWEEN THE PANTHERS AND COWBOYS 79-41 66% in 2015 on PLATINUM CLUB PLAYS)
Arizona is off a big time prime time 34-31 win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, That was a bruising event and an emotional win which will have the Cardinals entering this game vs lowly SF banged up and in a fragie emotional let down state. On paper this seems like a mismatch, but in their current condition the Cardinals could very much be susceptible to an upset or at least a difficult game. It must be noted that the last 11 double digit road favorites are just 3-8 ATS . With that said, folks, just plug your noses, and pull the trigger on the 49ers to bring shock and awe to many Sunday NFL viewers, as they cover the number.
Take the points -1/2 unit comp selection
The aspirations of Notre Dame winning a National Title ends here. Stanford has their number and they should be able to cover this line by a TD. You also have the option of grabbing the hook and bringing this down to -3 but a TD cover is very likely.
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NCAAF: THANKSGIVING DAY DINNER ($19), NCAAF: 2 for 1 FRIDAY ($29)
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OHIO STATE vs. MICHIGAN (The Big Game in the Big House) ($19)
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Ben Burns CFB *1 Free Pick on MARSHALL (vs Western Kentucky) @ Noon ET Friday - Marshall is off of their bye week and they have gone 5-1 ATS the last three seasons combined when they are off of a bye week. Western Kentucky is having a great season but the Thundering Herd have been at their best against good teams. Marshall has gone 7-3 ATS the last three seasons in their games against teams with a winning record. Western Kentucky is playing on short rest here after their big win over Florida International Saturday. The Hilltoppers are 4-8 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a win in conference action. Western Kentucky has padded their record this season by facing weaker foes at the right time. The Hilltoppers now must step up in class on Friday and face a rested Marshall team that is 9-2 on the season. Western Kentucky is 2-7 ATS the last three seasons combined in games against teams with a winning record. The Thundering Herd will definitely be fully focused here as they lost a home game by a single point to the Hilltoppers in their match-up last season. That defeat ended Marshall's perfect season and they certainly haven't forgotten that. It's time for revenge. Consider a small play on MARSHALL as it is my *1 Free Pick Friday.
Thanksgiving Day NFL Winner
Courtesy of Tony George
Carolina @ Dallas
Stop the presses, Tony Romo is back! Dallas is a contender. Jerry Jones is smiling ear to ear. Christmas came early to America's team and now off a win against lowly Miami it is calling all cars for any team in the NFL facing the mighty Cowboys led by QB Romo and loud mouth Dez Bryant. WRONG! Is it a square play to side with everyone on the right side here, which is clearly Carolina. Oh no the 10-0 streak is over, and Dallas looks so good off the Dolphins win a 3-7 team is favored over a 10-0 team. Poor Carolina having to play in Jerry World against Romo with travel on short week, you have no chance. This line is so undeserving it is unreal.
Dallas is unbeaten when Tony Romo starts, big freaking deal. Those wins were against the NY Giants who gave them the game, the Eagles who stink, and Miami, ALL teams with losing records. Pretty impressive Cowboy fan, I am back on my heels! At 3-7 delusional Cowboy fans think they can make the playoffs and the division crown is within sight. Has anyone actually seen Dallas play this season, and Jason Garrett coach in a big game? Garrett is one of the worst game day coaches and in game coaches in the NFL!
Carolina is an elite team with a MVP Quarterback in Cam Newton, a killer running game, a great head coach who has these guys playing a brand of football which is destroying people left and right and a defense that may put Romo back on the sideline before this game is over. The eye test is simple here, the public loves to bet Dallas but Dallas sucks, and Carolina is for real.
Free Pro Pick on Carolina +1
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Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Green Bay Packers -8
It’s hard to say this because the Packers are 8-point favorites, but I believe this line is lower than it should be, and there’s some value with the Packers in this game as a result. The Bears are getting a lot of public love right now because they have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The public has backed off the Packers quite a bit because they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
One of the biggest indications that the Packers are undervalued here is when you compare the line from when these teams met in Week 1. Green Bay was a 6-point road favorite in its 31-23 win at Chicago. Now it is only an 8-point home favorite in the rematch. If you adjust for home-field advantage, the Packers should be around 12-point home favorites based off of the Week 1 line.
Eddy Lacy finally got going last week with 100 rushing yards on 22 carries against the Vikings. It was nice to see that he’s not broken. Now Lacy should be primed for another big game in the cold weather against a Bears defense that ranks 25th against the run, giving up 123.7 yards per game. The Bears gave up a season-high 170 yards to the Broncos last week.
Aaron Rodgers is 3rd in the NFL with 23 touchdowns passes, and his three interceptions are tied for the fewest among quarterbacks who have started every game. The Packers are 10-1 in their last 11 meetings with the Bears. Their only loss came when Rodgers was injured in the first quarter and did not return in a 20-27 home loss to the Bears in 2013. Not only have the Packers won, they have dominated this series with the Bears in recent meetings. They have outscored the Bears 124-54 in their last three meetings, or by an average of 23.3 points per game.
Chicago should get a decent boost with Matt Forte expected to return to the lineup. But the Bears also could be without three of their top receiving targets in this one. Receivers Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are questionable to play, while tight end Martellus Bennett has been ruled out with a rib injury. That is potentially going to leave this already shaky Bears’ offense short-handed.
The Packers should have plenty of reason to be motivated in this game. The first big part THursday night will be the retirement of Brett Favre’s jersey, so the place is going to be rocking because of that. But secondly, the Packers have a chance to even the all-time series in the NFL’s oldest rivalry with a win.
Green Bay is 22-2 in its last 24 regular season home games. The Packers are 6-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons, coming back to win by 15.4 points per game in this spot. The Packers are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 vs. NFC North. Green Bay is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 home games. The Bears are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. NFC North. The Packers are 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Packers Thursday.
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Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NCF Free Pick *1* on UNDER in Central Florida vs South Florida @ 7:30 PM Saturday - In their last six games Central Florida had one 30 point outburst against the awful defense of Tulsa and in the other five games the Golden Knights averaged just 10.6 points per game. They'll have trouble putting up points against a Bulls team that is very solid defensively. South Florida is allowing an average of less than 23 points per game on the season. I look for USF to be a little disinterested in this game so I don't see them trying to run up the score here. At the same time, I fully expect the struggles for the UCF offense to continue and that means a rather a low-scoring snooze-fest should be on tap between a winless Golden Knights team and a Bulls team that has already clinched their bowl eligibility as they now have 7 wins on the season. 17 of South Florida's last 23 conference games have stayed under the total. Also, 8 of the Bulls last 9 games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. The under is 5-2 in Golden Knights home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points the last three seasons combined. *1* Free Pick on UNDER the total in Central Florida Thanksgiving Night.
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Florida +3)
Everyone is ripping on the Gators for their poor performance in their last 3 games, but the most important thing is they found a way to win. You have to keep in mind this team has had the SEC East locked up for quite some time and have struggled to find motivation against inferior opponents. Florida won't have any trouble getting up against in-state rival Florida State, who won 4 of the last 5 in the series. This is a huge revenge game for the Gators and when the opponent has been legit, they have stepped up and played their best football. If you listen to the SC podcast, you know I'm not a big fan of the ACC, as I feel it's drastically overrated. Just look at Florida State's schedule and find me an impressive win against an elite opponent. You won't. The Seminoles 9 wins have come against Texas St, USF, BC, WF, MIA, LOU, SYR, NCST, and Chattanooga. I just feel Florida's defense is to fast and too athletic for the Seminoles and have a huge advantage playing at home in the swamp. Wrong team is favored in my opinion. Give me the Gators +3!
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