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Free Pick - Tulane +7
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FREE CFB Over-Under Thursday 9-3-15
OVER 58 1/2 Central Michigan/Oklahoma State (CFB)
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Our Free Play is on the draw when Germany under 20 and Italy under 20 meet on Thursday. I think we see a 0-0 or 1-1 score. Nice value at +215.
Be sure to check out our daily FREE SOCCER PICKS as well as PREMIUM PLAYS this week in college football and our NFL Preseason Game Of The Year.
Thursday card has NFLX 100% Total of the Year, a 25-0 NFL Side, a College Blowout and a Double system side in the Michigan at Utah game. There is also a Powerful MLB System. Football combined finished 54 games over .500 and #1 ranked on several leader boards. Free College Play below
The Free College football play is on the over in the Colorado at Hawaii in late action. Game 149/ 150 at 1:00 am eastern. COMBINED FOOTBALL RANKED #1 OVERALL IN 2014. We like The over in what looks to be a high scoring offensive game and expect Hawaii to cover as Hawaii has covered 9 straight as a non conference home dog of less than 8 points. They fits nice opening week system that plays on home dogs of more than 3 that won 3 or more games last season and are taking on an opponent that was 6-5 or worse last season like Colorado. These home dogs are covering over 65% long term. Colorado has failed to cover seven straight as non conference road favorites and have been a terrible road team. the last 10 seasons. The Rainbow Warriors have covered 5 of the last 6 home openers that were lined. Look for them to get the cover here tonight.in a high scoring game. On Thursday 5 big Plays take center stage with the 100% NFLX Total, a Super system that has cashed 25 straight times and the MLB Game of the Week. In College Football its the Double perfect system side in the Michigan at Utah game and a Big opening week blowout system. Football was ranked#1 combined on several high end leader boards last season at 54 games .over 500. Jump on now and put the power of this industry leading data on your side. For the free play Go over the total. RV
XANDER LOCKE'S BIG $ NFL TOTAL
I have come up with my own strategic method of picking NFL TOTALS. I am not going to divulge my methods. I have had great success with these methods. Very rarely will I lose more than I win of these games.
TAKE THE UNDER
Play on Game #148 Arizona Wildcats (9/03/2015)
This is a huge mismatch for Texas- San Antonio in their first game of the season. UTSA only returns 6 starters this season. I will also note that this offense only threw for 5 TD's last season. They lose ALL of their starting wide receivers and now the leading receivers on the team are their tight end and running back. The new quarterback will not have much time in the pocket in this game as the Arizona pass rush will be fierce (Scooby Wright for Arizona was PAC 12 DPOY last season with 14 sacks and 15 TFL). The UTSA offensive line lost 179 career starts after last year and now they have only have 2 offensive linemen that have started more than one game. Arizona has a HUGE advantage at the line of scrimmage in this game. On defense, UTSA returns ZERO defensive linemen and also lose 110 starts in the secondary. Arizona returns 85% of their offense from last season and have 2 transfers ready to step in on the offensive line.
UTSA played @ Arizona in 2013 and were listed as a 24.5 road dog and Arizona won 38-13, barely covering the spread. The spread for this game is about 7 points more but the difference is that UTSA had 18 returning starters in 2013 and now have only 6. The other difference is this is Rich-Rod's 4th year as the Arizona head coach and now his recruits are fitting into the spread offense and they are even more high-powered.
Arizona is led by QB Anu Solomon who shined last season as a freshmen. Arizona scored 42 or more points in 5 games so obviously they have the offensive firepower. I will also note they opened the season last year with a big 58-13 win vs. UNLV as a 23.5 point home favorite. They then traveled on the road to play UTSA where they only won 26-23. Playing on the road, they still outgained UTSA by 105 yards in Solomons 1st career start on the road. Solomon is back at home for this game and in his 2nd year with the offense, look for a lot of points to be put on the board from the Wildcats.
Arizona will remember the close game from last season and will be highly motivated to step on the gas early and often in this one. This game has 'Blowout' written all over it. I know this spread is big, but I think we will see a final score in the 52-13 range. I will say that Arizona will have this spread covered by at least a touchdown and even a late score by UTSA will not make a difference. Arizona -31.5 is definitely worth a closer look on Thursday Night.
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The Bears of 2014 were a rabble and they're now significantly worse with key players such as Brandon Marshall and (the oft injured but talented) Charles Tillman, as well as a host of role players now gone. They have a new head coach and a QB in Jay Cutler who throws picks regularly. If you are a Bears supporter and thought last season was bad, strap yourself in because you aint seen nothing yet!
The Packers high octane offense will be ready to roll again this season and we don't need to say a lot about them - they should chalk up 12-13 wins and win the NFC North again. Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the game and the fact that the Packers should have made the Superbowl last season should see them very motivated. Games against the weaker sides like Chicago will be important and this one should be pretty one sided.
Take the Packers -6 points here.
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Western Kentucky has nine starters back on defense– a defense that ranked 111th against the run, 121st against the pass and 120th in total yards per game allowed (128 teams ). So having those 9 starters back, from that type of unit may not necessarily be a good thing. HC Derek Mason has placed the Commodores dead last in the conference according to alot of pundits. But Im not sold on the fact that the Commodores are that bad of a team. I know their opponents in game 1 of their non conference schedule Western Kentucky is one one of the most explosive College Football teams in the nation behind Brandon Doughty, but Im betting the Commodores 2nd year 3-4 defense will improve enough under Masons tutelage to slow down this monster attack. Remember Vandy has a defensive front seven that returns five starters and they all play tenacious smash mouth football that is contagious to the rest of D . Yes, I know Vandy has alot of question marks on offense, but even the most pedestrian attack has been able to slice and dice the Toppers D in the past, and until they show improvement Im betting against them.
Play on Vanderbilt to cover 1/2 unit comp selection
Last season I finsihed my College Football Camapign 4th overall in the nation, and on a 86-56 61% run and Im expecting another viable season in 2015-16.
Play on: Oklahoma State (137) -22 over Central Michigan
With issues at quarterback last season no one in Stillwater thought frosh QB Mason Rudolph would lead the Cowboys to two huge wins at the end of the season vs. hated OU and Washington in the Cactus Bowl, but he did. Oklahoma State shows with 16 starters, but they did lose Roland and Hill their top running tandem. The rest of the skill set is loaded, so once the newcomers carrying the pigskin become acclimated the offensive attack should once again become a dangerous product every week. On defense the Cowboys finished ranked #91 in total defense, and clearly need to improve that side of the ball to become a major player in conference. Six units on last year’s schedule scored 35 or more points. But, this time around they are more experienced, and don’t open with Florida State (31-37) as they did in 2014. Again, critical will be a defense that allowed 5.8 yards per play last season, and their projected improvement.
Central Michigan brings back just 10 starters from a 7-6 season, have QB Cooper Rush (3,157) returning with great experience under his belt. However, the Chips have a new HEAD COACH John Bonamego. He brings two decades of experience from the coaching ranks. In the NFL he was an assistant with the Jaguars, Packers and Saints. In CFB he tendered at Maine, Lehigh and Army, while playing for Central Michigan in college. Because of the coaching move there were changes in some of the assistants. As far as the schedule, the Chips have done very well inside their home openers, but as a sampling the last four were Chattanooga (20-16), New Hampshire (24-21), SE Missouri State (38-27) and South Carolina State (21-6). Obviously, Oklahoma State is a major step up in class. What will be tested is the CMU defense that finished #29 nationally allowing just 355.5 yards per game last season. In addition, they have lost 6 starters and a projected player is lingering with a leg injury. Pending weather conditions in Michigan the Cowboys should be able to strike often against the depleted opposition.
In the last seven games of 2014 the Cowboys were booked as an underdog at the Westgate Super Book on the Las Vegas Strip. OSU laid double-digits four times last season splitting 2-2 ATS. Central Michigan shows 1-5 ATS L6 at home and 3-13 ATS in September, while the Cowboys roll 3-0 ATS in game #1 of the season.
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1* Free Play UNDER WKU/Vandy.
WKU owned one of the countries top offensive units last year and it will once again be a strength of for the 'Tops this season. If Western Kentucky wants to take its play to the next level though, clearly it needs to improve on the defensive side of the ball this season and the team draws a great opponent in its opener to test its new unit. The Hilltoppers got some good news in the offseason when UAB decided to shutdown its football program at the end of last year, making its players available for transfer and immediate eligibility. WKU would quickly grab senior Jontavious Morris, who upgrades the defensive line and the defensive unit as a whole. On the other side of the field, Derek Mason's start as Head Coach got off to a rocky start in 2014/15 as Vanderbilt would win just three games overall, while going a miserable 0-8 in the SEC. Vandy had no consistency at the QB position and it's going to be an issue again this year as new Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig is still trying to decide who will start as neither Wade Freebeck or Johnny McCrary have played well enough to stake a claim as the No. 1 guy. The offensive line was atrocious last season, the team averaged a league-worst 3.4 YPC, while also struggling to protect the QB. The Commodores though will benefit from more experience on both sides of the ball in 2014/15, but all signs once again point to a long and frustrating season. While there's sure to be some spectacular offensive plays in this one, we feel that the combination of WKU's improved defensive unit and Vanderbilt's issues at QB will result in this one falling UNDER the posted number.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #160 Take Boise State Broncos over Washington Huskies (Friday 10:15 pm ESPN) Chris Petersen returns to Boise, ID to lead his Huskies into battle with the Broncos. Boise State really put it together last year late and expect that momentum to carry over into this season when some feel they have a chance to run the table and make the four team playoff. Despite having two high draft picks on defense, Washington was not a very good team in 2014 and I do not see things getting any better this year in a loaded PAC-12. There is also revenge for the Broncos as Washington beat them in their last meeting, 38-6, in the game I believe drove Chris Petersen out of Boise. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Opening Weekend Card of College Football. Doc’s Sports went a perfect 7-0 in 2013 picking up $3,000 in profits for $100 bettors. Jump on board the victory train now and let 44 years of handicapping experience work for you.
This selection isn't so much due to liking Western Kentucky, but "playing against" Vanderbilt. Western Kentucky's been a solid team for 2 straight years, going 8-4 SU in 2014 & 8-5 SU last season while beating Central Michigan in their Bowl game. On the other hand, Vandy ended the 2014 season at 3-9 SU, with their only 3 wins coming against outgunned football programs like U. Mass, Charlestown South & Old Dominion- All are more known for their Basketball teams than their Football programs. Vandy averaged just 17 points per game last year and was held to 17 points or less in 8 of their 12 games. They ended at 0-8 SU in the Dog role and that's exactly where they find themselves to open this season- As home Dogs hosting Western Kentucky. On Thursday Western Kentucky starts their 2nd season behind HC Jeff Brohm, who finally got everything together near the end of last season while finishing on a 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS winning run. Combine last season's late improvement with that confidence building Bowl victory and you MUST back Western Kentucky to beat up on a rebuilding Vandy team.
10* Play On Western Kentucky
Tulane +7.5 1.1* Complimentary Action
Duke is an interesting story. From 1995 to 2012 they went 18-126 in the ACC, but the last 2 years they went 11-6 despite a -40, and -70 yards per game defecit. They lose a ton of talent in 2015, but most notably are their QB Anthony Boone, WR Crowder, but the 95 career starts between their two key hogs up on the offensive line in Laken Tomlinson and Takoby Cofield. That could be a huge issue on Thursday night on the road against Tulane, whose strength is a defensive line that has been a top 40 group in adjusted line yards the last two years.
What I really like about this play is Tulane has 16 returning starters and can only get better. Their 34 point loss to Duke last year on the road was not as bad as the scoreboard indicated and Curtis Johnson has done a fine job of recruiting and building depth. The offense will still struggle, but their defense should keep them in games especially against a rebuilding team like Duke who themselves have a ton of question marks on offense. I expect a low scoring one possession score game.
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10 STAR GAME VEGAS TIPSHEET
CHARLOTTE/GEORGIA ST 74 UNDER
Charlotte is coming into this game with last minute changes to their QB position. Their team is built of inexperienced sophomores and Juniors. Georgia St. defensive line is stronger, and their backfield is loaded with depth. I expect Charlotte to keep the ball on the ground, while Georgia St. tries to figure out their passing game. Georgia St. wins 28-17.
Thursday NCAA – Battle of the Carolina’s
Courtesy of Tony George Sports
So. Carolina vs No. Carolina
The College Football Season opens up Thursday Night with an ACC / SEC Tilt in Charlotte, NC on a neutral field as North Carolina takes on the Gamecocks in what lines out to be a pretty even matchup. Now many will think an SEC team pitted up against an ACC team is a mismatch in 80% of the cases that might be true, but UNC returns 10 players on offense including dual threat QB Marquis Williams who threw for over 3000 yards last year and ran for 788, and he has a full complement of weapons returning as well. It was the North Carolina defense that was their demise last year, ranked near the bottom of the NCAA. They brought in Gene Chizik to overhaul one of the worst stop units in 2014 in the NCAA, and I think it will pay some dividends.
Steve Spurrier’s team in 2014 just flat out found ways to lose ballgames and they start an unproven QB whose offense returns just 4 starters overall from last year’s disappointing team, and the Gamecocks will be lucky to get to 7 wins again this year based on speculation of a weak offense, turnover issues with a new QB, and their schedule, and this opener is no cakewalk.
At days end playing in the state of North Carolina is a small advantage, and the offense should be in favor of the Tarheels here with a veteran unit. North Carolina is a 2.5 to 3 point underdog and I feel they have the better chance in this game to put up points versus a South Carolina team trying to get a new offense up to speed. This line is based on public perception in my opinion and Larry Feldora, North Carolina’s head coach is no slouch in big games, as evidenced by his success at Southern Miss previously.
FREE Pro Pick on North Carolina +2.5 to 3 points
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09/03 10:10 PM EST MLB (907) LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS (908) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take: over the total.
Reason: Your free play Thursday, September 3rd, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the LA Dodgers and the Padres from Petco Park in San Diego. LA heads to San Diego with an offense ranked third in baseball in on base percentage. LA is 40-18-4 over the total during game 1 of a series. Starter Mat Latos was shifted to the bullpen last week, enabling the Dodgers to employ a four-man rotation for a few turns. Latos struggled prior to the move, allowing 10 earned runs on 14 hits over his last 8.2 innings. He holds a 4.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the year. Padres starter Colin Rea (5.95 ERA) has struggled, allowing 29 base runners in 19+ innings. His last two starts the team is 0-2 allowing 9 runs in 9 innings. San Diego is on a 23-7-2 run over the total, including 21-6-2 over at home against a team with a winning record. San Diego is also 20-4-2 over the total against a right-handed starter, so look for an offensive show. Play the LA Dodgers/Padres over the total.
Free Pick on Vanderbilt +
This may seem like an easy play on Western Kentucky for some, but I think there's tremendous value here with the Commodores as a home dog. I know their not an elite SEC team, but no SEC team should be a dog on their home field against a C-USA opponent.
The Hilltoppers are getting a lot of hype, largely do their high-powered offense that put up 44.4 ppg and 535 ypg. WKU will get back senior quarterback Brandon Doughty, but I'm not sold on this team being as good as people think. Sure they ended the year strong and had that big win over an undefeated Marshall team on the road, but they also lost by Illinois in non-conference play.
Vanderbilt went just 3-9 a year ago, but that was largely due to the transition under first year head coach Derek Mason. The Commodores played 31 freshman, most of any FBS team. Mason is a good coach (was defensive coordinator at Stanford prior to coming here) and has had more than enough time to get his stop unit prepared for this matchup.
The big key here is that Western Kentucky is awful on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up 39.9 ppg, 510 ypg and 6.7 yard/play. Vanderbilt's offense may struggle in the majority of their games, but not this one. I actually think the Commodores will have the easier time moving the ball and will focus on running the ball behind an experienced offensive line to keep WKU's offense out of sync and off the field. Take Vanderbilt!
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FREE MLB play Thursday 9-3-15
Pittsburgh -144 (MLB)
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Play - Minnesota Gophers (Game 142).
Edges - Gophers: 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge; and 6-0 ATS last six as double-digit home dogs. Horned Frogs: 3-9 ATS weekday games; and 1-4 ATS as road favorites of 13 or more points. With the Gophers 17-3 SU and 10-3 ATS in home openers since 1995 - with the three losses by a combined total of 11 points - we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.
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FREE NFL play Thursday 9-3-15
Arizona +7 (NFL)
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Chris Petersen returns to Boise, ID to lead his Huskies into battle with the Broncos. Boise State really put it together late last season and expect that momentum to carry over into this season. Washington was not a very good team in 2014 and I do not see things getting any better this year in a loaded PAC-12. There is also revenge for the Broncos as Washington beat them in their last meeting, 38-6. Washington underachieved last season and doesn't have nearly the talent it had in 2014. The Huskies are young and in rebuilding mode. So the timing of this opener at Boise State is not good for the Huskies and former Broncos coach Chris Petersen. Because of Petersen's return, this matchup takes on added importance and intensity for the Broncos and coach Bryan Harsin, a protegee of Petersen. Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Broncos have the more experience and talent. Boise State returns 19 starters, including its entire offensive line and three defensive line starters that has back Mountain West Conference sack leader Kamale i Correa. The Broncos are on a 9-game winning streak, including a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win against Pac-12 South champion Arizona. Blow out here. Boise St -12
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: USC Trojans -27
The turmoil surrounding Steve Sarkisian this offseason will only bring the USC Trojans closer together. I think the Trojans are primed to have their best season since going 12-1 back in 2008. The Trojans won nine games last year and even lost two games on the final play. This easily could have been an 11-2 team and Pac-12 South champions.
Now the Trojans return 14 starters in 2015 and their sanctions are gone. Depth really hurt them last season late in games because they didn’t have enough scholarship players. They will now have their best depth since Pete Carroll left. Sarkisian has been raving this offseason about how there is great competition at every position, which wasn’t the case last year.
The offense played at a much faster tempo last year, and they handled it well, putting up 35.8 points and 458 yards pr game. This unit now returns seven starters, including senior QB Cody Kessler. He is clearly a Heisman Trophy candidate after completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns against five interceptions a year ago. This offense is only going to be more explosive in 2015 in Year 2 of the system.
The defense failed to get stops late in games last year because of the depth problems. That will now be a non-issue in 2015, and this is going to be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 25.2 points and 408 yards per game last season. Seven starters return on defense, and now there’s depth at all three levels. The biggest improvement will come against the pass with three starters back from a secondary that allowed 275 passing yards per game last season, which is simply too much, even in the pass-happy Pac-12.
Arkansas State has had some great head coaches through the years in Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn and Brian Harsin. All three are off to greener pastures doing bigger and better things at Ole Miss, Auburn and Boise State, respectively. The Red Wolves downgraded the position in signing Blake Anderson, but at least he should stick around as long as they’ll have him.
It wasn’t a very impressive season last year for the Red Wolves, who went 7-6 after winning the Sun Belt title each of the previous three seasons. They were beaten pretty soundly at Tennessee (by 15) and at Miami (by 21) in non-conference play, and this USC team is vastly superior to both of those squads. The Red Wolves also lost by 19 to Toledo in the bowl game.
Arkansas State does have a capable offense that will be good again with nine starters back. I think QB Freddi Knighton may be the best in the Sun Belt even as he enters his senior season. He has all of his top skill players back. But this is a team from the Sun Belt, and this offense put up big numbers last year against bad competition. Tennessee held Arkansas State to 19 points, and Miami held it to 20 points for comparisons sake.
The Red Wolves' defense is going to give up a big number to the Trojans, likely 50-plus points. They allowed 30.5 points and 421 yards per game last year, and now they have just six starters back while losing six of its top 10 tacklers. The Red Wolves allowed 55 points to UL Lafayette, 37 to Appalachian State, 45 to Texas State and 63 to Toledo last year in four of their worst performances. That gives you an indication of what this elite USC offense is going to be able to do in the opener.
Plays on home favorites (USC) that put up 450 or more total yards of offense per game last season, with an experienced QB returning as the starter, in the first month of the season are 82-40 (67.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. USC beat Fresno State 52-13 at home in its opener last year. I believe this Arkansas State is similar to that Fresno State team with a solid offense but an atrocious defense. Another victory in the 39-point range can be expected in the 2015 opener for the Trojans. Bet USC Saturday.
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I'm recommending a play on the Pirates on Thursday. Rough sledding for the Bucs of late and their deficit in the NL Central has grown to six games to the St. Louis Cardinals. A loss here and the Pirates will end on the wrong side of a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. That's not the way to head to St. Louis for a weekend series and I believe they will bounce back tonight with Francisco Liriano on the mound. The left-hander has allowed just 34 earned runs and 126 base runners in his last 17 starts, spanning 106 innings of work. That's a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's allowed more than three earned runs in just three of those outings and the Pirates have won each of his last 11 starts. Liriano has been at his best on the road this season and owns a strong start in his lone outing against the Brewers. Taylor Jungmann will counter for Milwaukee and the 25-year old owns nice overall numbers, but he will walk a few batters. Jungmann has awarded 11 free passes in his last 19 innings of work, covering four starts. As you can see, he's averaged less than five innings per start in those outings and he'll face a Pirates' lineup that will be seeing Jungmann for the third time this season. Pittsburgh enters on a 40-15 run as road chalk in a line range that includes tonight's number (at the time of this post). The Brewers, meanwhile, have won just five of their last 21 as an underdog. I'm recommending a play on the Pirates on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.