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The MLB Comp play for Friday is on the NY.Mets at 7:05 eastern. The Mets fit a power system that is cashing over 85% long term and plays on road favorites off a road dog win vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs with no errors. The Mets are averaging over 9 runs the past week and are surging toward a wild card berth. They have won 18 of the last 26 here in Philly and have R. Gsellman and his superb 2.53 Era on the mound. He has been solid vs the Phillies with a 2.77 era. The Phillies counter with Asher who has a dismal 7.97 Era vs the Mets and they are 12-27 vs winning teams. Look for the Mets to take the opener. On Friday the PAC 12 Perfect system play of the month is up and has several big Angles. There is also early College Football releases and another MLB diamond cutter system on the card. Jump on now and put this industry leading data on your side. For the MLB Free pick. Play on the NY. Mets. RV
I like what I'm getting with the 'dog in this matchup: A Wildcats defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards per game in the nation and an offense that is No. 1 in red zone percentage going 16-for-16 in scoring from inside the 20-yard line. That 100 percent red zone scoring extends to the final seven games of last season, too.
The Wildcats had a lot of youth last season. That youth is maturing this year. This is the game that shows Kansas State is a real Big 12 contender.
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats have the right ingredients to score an upset here - good coaching, the ability to keep the ball away from West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard, not make mistakes and take full advantage of red zone opportunities to go with a strong defense that is particularly talented at linebacker.
Kansas State suffered a 26-13 opening-week road loss to seventh-ranked Stanford. There's no shame in that, but for some it warped the perception of Kansas State. The Wildcats give up 179 yards per game, best in the country, while surrendering just 33 points in three games. They pounded Florida Atlantic and Missouri State following the loss to Stanford.
West Virginia had issues with its special teams last week. The Mountaineers were life-and-death with BYU before winning, 35-32, last week nearly blowing a 35-19 lead. That game was played in Landover, Md. Kansas State had a much easier time rolling past Missouri State, 35-0, in a game that was called at halftime because of lightning.
So not only are the Wildcats the fresher team, but they have a proven track record under Snyder of being great in these types of games going 20-8-1 (71 percent) ATS versus above .500 opponents. By contrast, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the past six times they've faced a foe with a winning record.
Big 10 Underdog Pointspread Winner Saturday
Courtesy of Tony George
Minnesota @ Penn State (-3)
Penn State is still licking their wounds after an absolute throttling at Michigan last week where Jim Harbaugh never called off the dogs against an injury riddled Lions defense. I exposed this mis-match with a premium play laying 18.5 points and Michigan which was a no sweat winner for anyone who was willing to lay the points and realize Penn State is not at 100% on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball for Penn State is an offensive line that is not in sync, and they yielded 6 sacks last week and the offense was woeful to say the least. This is not good news as a veteran and well coached Golden Gopher teams heads to Happy valley this week with a very formidable run game where they are out rushing opponents by 109 years per game, and a capable QB in Leidner who is a dual threat through the air on the ground. It is troubling that Penn State is without all 3 starting LB's and allowed 365 yards rushing last week that plays right into Minnesota's strength.
Minnesota is undefeated to date and head into this game as statement game for them with a signature win on the road against a conference opponent, and Penn State is 0-6 against the Las Vegas Line their last 6 conference games. I cannot count on Penn State to rally here with a depleted defense in search of some bodies to stop a solid run unit and a Gopher team who also has a capable QB who can utilize play action passing with success as Penn State loads up to stop the run.
I have no issues with taking points on the road with Minnesota here who should clearly take advantage of Penn States issues on defense and the fact they are a cover machine on the road at 9-3 against the line their last 12 road games.
Minnesota 24 Penn State 20 - Take Minnesota +3
Tony George and his wares this weekend - a 4-Pack of Winners plus my weekly Hidden gem. CFB at 66% YTD! Also tune in the Tony George Show on SB Nation Radio and Sirius 93 on Sunday mornings 9-11 AM EST for the breakdown and Las Vegas Twist on this Sunday's NFL Games.
Ben Burns delivered a PERFECT 3-0 SWEEP at the ballpark on Tuesday. That brings him to a WHITE HOT 16-5 his L21. Long known for his excellence with O/U plays, Ben has currently NAILED EIGHT STRAIGHT TOTALS. In addition to having cashed five of last week's six college plays, Burns is now 9-4 the L2 weeks in the "pros," a SUPERB 65-38 ATS his L103!
The LSU offense has under-achieved thus far. Thats led to an 0-4 ATS record and was among the reasons that Les Miles (and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron) just got fired. The struggling offense has also led to an 4-0 "under" mark through four games. With Ed Orgeron taking over on an interim basis and Missouri coming to town, that "under" streak should have an excellent shot at coming to an end on Saturday.
Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it."
While the competition wasn't admittedly pretty weak, Missouri just scored 79 points last week. It was the second time in three games that Missouri topped the 60-point mark. Missouri is averaging 569.5 yard per game on the season. While the number has climbed a little from its opener, I still believe its a little too low. Take a look at the Over.
Burns was 12-3 Fri/Sat/Sun, 9-2 on the gridrion, a PERFECT 4-0 w/ Saturday's TOP plays. He's now an EPIC 55-35 ATS w/ his 2016 football. Going back further finds him at an 113-76 ATS, a SICK 60% with his L189 on the gridiron, all against totally unbiased lines. If this "ain't your first rodeo," you know how AWESOME those numbers are. Jump pn board and ride the wave!
I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday. We had the Mountaineers last week and watched them fail to put away a BYU team that was ready to fold the tent. WVU made late-game mistakes, including a major unforced miscue inside the Cougar 10-yard line in a spot that would have likely wrapped-up the cover. But the Mountaineers have been known to make their share of mistakes, while Bill Snyder-coached teams rarely beat themselves. K-State is 16-for-16 in the redzone this season and brings the better stop-unit to the battle, ranked 7th against the run, and #1 in pass defense and total yards allowed per game. The Wildcats have already traveled to Stanford where they were within six points at 19-13 with less than three minutes to go in the game until a late, Christian McCaffrey 41-yard TD run. Until then, K-State had held Stanford to 231 yards of total offense in 57+ minutes of action. The Wildcats enter on a 20-8-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record, while the Mountaineers have dropped six in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We'll back Kansas State as they aim for their 5th straight win & cover over West Virginia. Kansas State plus the points on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
This match takes place on Friday in France. The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score. I think it ends 1-1.
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Play - Virginia.
Edges - Cavaliers: Bronco Mendenhall 16-4 ATS in games in which his team sports a losing record, including 8-1 ATS as a dog in those games. Blue Devils: David Cutcliffe 9-18-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 0-5 ATS versus .250 or less opponents. With the Devils off a monster upset win over Notre Dame as 24-point dogs last week, and teams who upset the Fighting Irish just 10-23-3 ATS as favorites in their next game, we recommend a 1* play on Virginia. Thank you and good luck as always.
> If you enjoyed Marc’s red-hot Top Rated 5* College Football Game Of The Month winner last Saturday with Auburn over LSU, you’ll love his Top Rated 10* College Football False Favorite Game Of the Month this Saturday night. He’s documented 37-11 on this huge play since 1990 and best of all this game is backed with a NEVER LOST winning angle inside the game. Get it right here, right now!
1* Free Play Carolina Panthers.
Setting the scene: Carolina went to the Super Bowl last season, but has gotten out to a poor start so far in 2016/17, coming into Week 3 sitting at 1-2. Atlanta returns home after two straight road victories, most recently pulling away for the 45-32 win at New Orleans on Monday night. We think the “hungry” visitors are the correct call in this matchup.
The Panthers: It’s been a tough start to the year for Carolina. But with three straight divisional contests, starting with Atlanta, then Tampa Bay at home next week, followed by a game at New Orleans before their “bye,” we’re expecting the Panthers and to risk life and limb today. Also note that Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October.
The Falcons: They look primed for a letdown here after their big win over the Saints on national television. And with two tough road games on deck, including at Denver and Seattle, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” to that difficult part of its schedule.
The bottom line: Also note that Atlanta is a poor 2-9 ATS in its last 11 following a divsional contest and 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival. Consider a second look at the PANTHERS in Week 4.
The Yankees start their final home series of the season as they host the Orioles. Michael Pineda has pitched well as of late giving up three runs and 10 hits in his last 15 innings of work striking out 23 while walking just six. Pineda has faced the Orioles twice in 2016 allowing just two runs and 10 hits in 10 innings. This once fierce Baltimore lineup has scored just 31 runs in their last 12 games so they limp down the stretch to a potential playoff berth. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA under three at home this season. Yovani Gallardo is 3-5 with a 6.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.700 in 12 road starts for the O's. He has lost both his starts at Yankees Stadium allowing 12 runs and 11 hits in just over eight innings. The Yankees have scored 23 runs over their four game win streak and have played some awesome baseball to close out the season. They have won five of the seven meetings between the two at home in this series. I think that trend continues on Friday.
My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Washington at 9 pm et on Friday.
Both of these teams enter this Pac-12 showdown sporting flawless records. However, Stanford has also managed to go a perfect 3-0 ATS while Washington checks in just 2-2 ATS.
I do feel that the Cardinal are the superior team in this matchup, even if they have shown some chinks in their armor through their first three contests.
It's not as if Washington has been on cruise control. Note that the Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona last week (we cashed with the Wildcats in that one). Washington has been favored by at least 16 points in all four games so far, laying at least 25 points in three of those.
Stanford is the more battle-tested team having faced Kansas State, USC and UCLA so far this season. The Cardinal have been stout defensively and opportunistic offensively, and here I look for them to put forth a more efficient performance than we've seen here in 2016.
The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, with only Stanford covering as a favorite over that stretch - a 31-14 win over Washington last year. Take Stanford (8*).
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #200 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 8 pm BTN) Most experts believed that this would be a rebuilding year for Michigan State and in two months that will be evident to all. They had fool’s gold beating Notre Dame two weeks ago but came crashing down in a big way last Saturday at home against Wisconsin. As we also observed that win over Notre Dame is not that impressive since the Irish have already lost three times this season. Indiana is coming off a disappointing loss to Wake Forest last week but expect them to bounce back in a big way this Saturday since this is the opening of Big 10 Conference play. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by our Mountain West Game of the Year. Doc’s Sports is a perfect 4-0 on Top Plays this season in College Football. Sign-up now and let 45 years of handicapping experience work for you.
This is a Free 2-Team (7.5-point) Teaser W/USC+OVER.
The Trojans are 1-3, hosting the undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils, and to the untrained eye it might seem odd that USC is a double-digit favorite here. This game actually reminds me of last season, when a 3-3 USC squad was a home favorite to the then #3 ranked Utah Utes who were 6-0 at the time.
The Trojans went on to win that game by a score of 42-24, and went on to win four of their next five games, punching a ticket to the PAC12 Championship game versus Stanford. You can bet that Trojans coach Clay Helton will remind his team of that heading into this weekend's game.
Arizona State has looked terrible on defense, especially last week allowing Cal to gain a total of 637 yards. They managed to come back from a double-digit deficit by scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to remain undefeated.
The Trojans can take a lot of positives from last Friday's loss at Utah. Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 253 yards on 18-of-26 passing, and ran for 41 yards and a TD. He looked pretty solid in his first start on the road against one of the top defenses in the conference.
Arizona State has failed to cover in seven of it's last nine road games, and the over is 6-1 in it's last seven overall.
Take Central Florida (#151)
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UCF went 0-12 last year. 10 of their losses came by two touchdowns or more, as they should have – George O’Leary’s final season was a complete disaster. That included a late November 44-7 home loss at the hands of East Carolina. That was then, this is now.
New UCF Coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants Central Florida to become “The Oregon of the East”. Frost found his starting QB two weeks ago when previous starter Justin Holman got hurt. In two games behind center, frosh McKenzie Milton; a dual threat dynamo against both Maryland and FIU.
Here’s Frost’s quote:
“One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.”
When a formerly dismal team starts to play competitive football, then starts to win, it becomes contagious – these are ‘bet-on’ teams week after week, until the markets show that they’ve caught up. Considering that UCF has covered the spread (in regulation) by double digit margins in each of the last two weeks, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the markets have caught up with their improvement.
East Carolina has faced two solid offensive teams; NC State and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack gained more than 200 yards on the ground AND through the air against East Carolina, and could have scored far more than the 30 points that they did. Last week, Virginia Tech hung 54 on this stop unit, another balanced attack, and the defense didn’t create a turnover. Expect East Carolina to have a tough time getting stops here; bad news for any favorite.
The Pirates are coming off back-2-back physical, demoralizing losses, and they’ve yet to beat a FBS team by more than a field goal this year. A program in transition following the shocking firing of Ruffin McNeill last December has no business laying more than a field goal to a ‘bet-on’ UCF squad on Saturday. Take Central Florida.
Wisconsin +10.5 1.1% Free Play
I looked back I am 15-2-1 ATS backing Wisconsin over my 8 year career!
I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I don’t think Michigan’s rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsin’s run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan can’t run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I can’t rely on Wilton Speight to score TD’s in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TD’s and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and I’m getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
**ON TAP THIS WEEKEND**
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