Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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Stephen Nover is one of the most respected NFL handicappers in North American with the record to back it up: 371-302 for 55 percent during the last eight years. All of Stephen's plays come with his trademark deep and unique analysis. Stephen is a multiple Rotisserie league football champion and was an award-winning sportswriter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years. He also worked for the legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxbury, who was the top oddsmaker in North America before retiring. Don't miss out. Lock in now and get all of Stephen's plays at a top value price.

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Game Details

Jan 16 '21, 7:05 PM in 8h

NHL | Maple Leafs vs Senators

Play on: Maple Leafs -1½ +121 at pinnacle

Game Analysis

The Senators finished 30th out of 31 teams last season. The Maple Leafs have the talent to seriously contend for the Stanley Cup.

Maturity, not talent, is the question regarding Toronto. The Maple Leafs opened with a narrow home victory against Montreal in overtime, overcoming a two goal deficit lead. Toronto then took an early lead against the supposedly hapless Senators last night. The Maple Leafs, apparently overconfident and full of themselves, proceeded to get thoroughly outplayed giving up three goals during the final 10:30 of the second period in a 5-3 loss. Fredrik Andersen didn't play well in net. Neither did defenseman Morgan Reilly, nor Auston Matthews who was minus three during his time of the ice. Now the specter of getting swept by the Senators during the opening weekend of the season lurks for the Maple Leafs. So expect a much more determined effort by the Maple Leafs - both physically and mentally. Andersen is likely to be replaced by Jack Campbell in net for this game. Reilly is primed for a big season and Matthews is in the argument for best player in the NHL. Ottawa looks improved with nine new faces making their Senators debut last night, including former Penguins goalie Matt Murray. It's going to take the Senators a while to jell without a preseason for their many new teammates, though. They pulled their upset surprise Friday. I don't see it happening again today. Neither does the oddsmaker making the Maple Leafs such a heavy favorite. So I'm going with the puck line, laying 1 1/2 goals, to turn this line into a plus profit in the belief this is a kill spot for Toronto. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 48-28-1 o his last 77 NBA premium plays, 160-108-5 on his college basketball plays the past three seasons and is on a 19-11-2 NFL run going for his 24th winning NFL season in 27 years. But Stephen also is a highly respected hockey handicapper. Stephen is going for his fifth straight winning NHL season. He is out of the gate fast this year going 4-1 the past two days, including cashing a plus $1.72 winner on the Avalanche on the puck line last night. There is tremendous value right now during the first week of the season - and Stephen is fully on top of it.)

Pick Released on Jan 16 at 09:33 am

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Hawks vs Jazz	Hawks +6 -105	Premium	92-116	Loss	-105	Show
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers	Rutgers +3½ -110	Premium	60-54	Loss	-110	Show
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets.
Niagara vs Manhattan	Manhattan +2½ -107	Premium	49-58	Win	100	Show
Neither team has much offense. But Manhattan is the better offensive rebounding team, forces more turnovers and has the best player on the court with Ant Nelson. The Jaspers also have dominated Niagara at home winning eight of the past nine times hosting the Purple Eagles, including the last five. Manhattan's average victory margin during these five home wins against Niagara is nine points.
Bowling Green vs Buffalo	Bowling Green +4½ -102	Top Premium	76-69	Win	100	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
Blues vs Avalanche	Avalanche -1½ +172	Premium	0-8	Win	172	Show
I hold a lot of respect for the Blues. But I want the Avalanche going for me in this short home revenge spot after St. Louis defeated Colorado, 4-1, two days ago. The Avalanche didn't play well. They seemed to be caught off-guard by the Blues' heavy checking and physical ways failing to counter that. I believe the Avalanche will be better prepared and proper adjustments made. They should have some urgency at the thought of going down 0-2 in this shortened season with a pair of home losses especially with their next four games on the road. Colorado has a history of responding well to this type of loss going 7-0 the past seven times following a loss of three or more goals. It's going to be difficult for the Blues to keep the Avalanche's restored No. 1 line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen off the scoreboard. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues faded in the third period with this being their second game in three days playing in high altitude.
Blackhawks vs Lightning	Lightning -1½ -108	Premium	2-5	Win	100	Show
The defending Stanley Cup Lightning are an elite tier team, while the Blackhawks rank among the worst teams. This was evident in Wednesday's opener won by the Lightning, 5-1. The score could have been even more lopsided but Blackhawks goalie Malcolm Subban made a couple of great saves. Tampa Bay dominated that game. I don't see anything changing. The Blackhawks are inexperienced, weak in net and really missing the presence of sidelined team captain Jonathan Toews. The Lightning have beaten the Blackhawks in nine of their past 10 regular-season meetings. The chances of the Lightning letting down are lessened by the heavy reduction of games this season, making each matchup important. Tampa Bay doesn't have to play an "A" game to defeat the Blackhawks by multiple goals.
Maple Leafs vs Senators	Maple Leafs -1½ +130	Premium	3-5	Loss	-100	Show
I think the highly-talented Maple Leafs have a shot to win the Stanley Cup this season. Toronto wasn't that sharp in its opener against Montreal, but came back from a two-goal deficit to nip the Canadiens in overtime. I expect the Maple Leafs to play better against the Senators. Toronto has the edge of already having played a game - not to mention a huge advantage in talent - while Ottawa is making its season debut. The Senators were the second-worst team in the league last season. The Senators are breaking in many new faces and without preseason they likely will start slow.

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