Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Atlanta at 8 pm et on Monday.

I can understand why backing the 'under' is a scary proposition for most bettors in this contest. After all, their last meeting produced a whopping 203 total points with Atlanta pacing the game with 111. I think this matchup sets up a little differently. Toronto is not in good offensive form right now. It has connected on fewer than 30 field goals in four straight and six of its last eight contests. Marina Mabrey being in and out of the lineup hasn't helped matters and she's probable for Monday's game with a neck injury. Even if she plays, I'm not sure it will be enough to help the Tempo, noting that Atlanta is sure to be in a foul mood off a 79-74 loss in Washington on Friday. The Dream have generally clamped down defensively off a loss and keep their opponents' pace down most of the time regardless, yielding fewer than 70 field goal attempts in an incredible 26 of their last 27 games. In fact, they limited the Tempo to just 56 field goal attempts in their most recent meeting on July 17th. Toronto just happened to shoot the lights out on that day, connecting on 30 of those 56 attempts. It was a perfect storm of sorts for 'over' bettors as Atlanta shot just shy of 55% from the field in that game. I don't think the Dream will need that type of performance to secure a bounce-back victory here. Look for this one to cruise 'under' the posted total. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco over Houston at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

I think bettors are going to be chasing the Astros on Monday as they enter off consecutive losses over the weekend in San Diego. I simply feel Houston is laying too high of a price given the starting pitching matchup here as it sends Hayden Wesneski to the hill against Blade Tidwell of the Giants. There's little reason for either starter to instill a great deal of confidence, certainly not enough to warrant the lopsided price. San Francisco figures to be in a foul mood after dropping both games against Detroit on the weekend. It's been a frustrating stretch and season as a whole for San Francisco. It has actually won the series opener in each of its last two series' before dropping the rest. That's a trend I can see continuing in this series. With the Astros travelling (albeit not very far) off the Sunday nighter, we'll fade them here. Take San Francisco (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on the Athletics over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

Fairly easy selection for us here. That's not to say the game will be easy, but the value is absolutely there with the Athletics as they return home off back-to-back wins over the previously streaking Red Sox. The Rays check in off a series sweep of the Mariners in Seattle. They'll hand the ball to a struggling Freddy Peralta on Monday. His first start with Tampa Bay was not a good one and that continues a trend for the right-hander this season. He missed out on a favorable matchup against the Mariners to face an A's lineup that has a healthy .282 batting average in 39 career at-bats against him. Of note, all eight A's that have faced Peralta have collected at least a hit and only one has seen him more than six times. Jacob Lopez will counter for the A's. The left-hander has had a tumultuous season but has settled down lately, allowing just three earned runs in 15 1/3 innings over his last three outings. It's not as if the Rays were tearing the cover off the baseball in Seattle. I think they'll have a tough time keeping pace with the A's offensively on Monday and we're being offered a generous price to back the home side. Take the Athletics (10*).