Sean Murphy

My selection is on the Athletics over Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Guardians took the opener of this series last night thanks to a rare offensive breakout, scoring eight runs in a three-run victory. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season, however, and I look for it to fail to deliver a third straight win on Saturday, noting that its current two-game winning streak matches its longest of the season. The Athletics have actually lost two or more games in a row only twice previously this season and just once going back to March 31st. Cleveland wants Slade Cecconi to be a key part of its starting rotation but so far, not so good as he's just 7-11 since joining the club in the Josh Naylor trade prior to last season. Here in 2026, Cecconi has gone 0-4 with a 5.64 FIP and 1.52 WHIP with the Guardians losing all six of his starts. Now he faces an A's lineup that has gone a healthy 15-for-53 (.283) with a .787 OPS against him. Those numbers would be even better were it not for the duo of Jacob Wilson and Austin Wynns going a combined 0-for-9 against the right-hander. The A's continue to hit, ranking top-10 in the majors in wOBA against rigiht-handed pitching this season and 12th in xwOBA over the last week. In stark contrast, the Guardians sit 30th (last place) in xwOBA over the same stretch. The A's will hand the ball to left-hander Jacob Lopez, who has gotten off to a shaky start this season but has shown signs of turning things around lately. Of note, his most recent start was a good one as he allowed just two earned runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-2 victory in Seattle on April 21st before making a relief appearance against the Rangers on the 26th. Only one Guardian hitter has faced Lopez before so he has a built-in advantage facing them essentially for the first time on Saturday. While Cleveland does figure to have the bullpen advantage, its relief corps has actually struggled on the road this season, posting a collective 4.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Of course, the A's 'pen has had a tough time regardless of the setting but the good news is, it has posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown over the last week. Lopez's arm should be fresh having not started in a week-and-a-half and despite his command issues, I do think he's capable of eating some innings here. Take the Athletics (8*).

My selection is on Miami over Philadelphia at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Phillies took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Marlins to answer back on Saturday. Andrew Painter will take the ball for Philadelphia. He got off to a solid start this season but has shown considerable regression over his last two outings, allowing eight earned runs on 14 hits over just 9 2/3 innings of work. The Phillies have lost his last three starts. I'm not sure he's long for the Philadelphia rotation at this point, noting that he has allowed 37-of-108 batters he has faced to reach base, sporting a 1.50 WHIP through 24 big league innings. Max Meyer will counter for Miami. He owns a solid 3.30 FIP and 1.20 WHIP through six starts this season. While he's not really a candidate to work deep into a ball game, the Marlins bullpen has held up well - at least at home - this season, logging a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with seven saves converted and only two blown in Miami. While the Marlins bats have been relatively quiet over the last week, so have the Phillies. In what projects as a lower-scoring affair, we'll get behind the Marlins as they look to bounce back. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday.

Despite the weather favoring the pitchers, we ended up seeing a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon as the Cubs hung on for a 6-5 victory. I think we'll see plenty of offense again on Saturday as the Diamondbacks send a struggling Ryne Nelson to the hill against Shota Imanaga of the Cubs. Nelson can probably be given a mulligan for his most recent start as it came against the Padres in a bandbox of a park, not to mention extremely high elevation, in Mexico City. He was tagged for six earned runs including two home runs over five innings in that wild 12-7 victory. On the season, Nelson owns a 5.59 FIP and 1.52 WHIP so his issues aren't limited to that start alone. He's just one start removed from giving up eight earned runs while recording just a single out against the Blue Jays. Of note, current Cubs hitters have worn Nelson out, going 23-for-68 (.338) with a .988 OPS. Every Chicago hitter that has seen Nelson more than once has recorded at least one hit. Imanaga has pitched reasonably well for the Cubs this season but he does face a D'Backs team that ranks third in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Cubs bullpen is depth-shy with only six relievers on the current roster including Ben Brown, who is used primarily as a long reliever. Jacob Webb and Ryan Rolison threw 36 and 25 pitches, respectively, in yesterday's game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs 'pen has struggled to the tune of a 5.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last week which is not far off their season numbers. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Most are considering this series a cinch for the experienced Hurricanes as they take on the upstart Flyers, who looked a little shaky over the final few games of their first round series against the Penguins. I think we're being offered a fair price to back Philadelphia with an insurance goal in Game 1 on Saturday, however. Note that the Canes have now won five straight games and that has them entering uncharted territory as for as good as they've been this season, they've yet to notch more than five wins in a row this season. Philadelphia has proven to be a 'tough out' on the road this season, going 25-19 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals. It's certainly worth noting that all four regular season matchups between these two teams went to either overtime or a shootout. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Points have come at a premium in this series, at least by today's NBA standards. The last two games both stayed 'under' the total and while we'll look to go against streaks like that at times, that's not the case here. Note that Philadelphia has posted five different 'under' streaks lasting more than two games since February 3rd alone. Meanwhile, the Celtics have recorded three or more consecutive 'under' results six times going back to January 10th. Neither team has managed to surpass 90 field goal attempts in this series and in the last two contests, neither team was able to knock down 40+ field goals. In keeping with tradition, we'll anticipate a low-scoring Game 7 affair on Saturday night in Boston. Take the under (8*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've wisely laid off the side in the last two games in this series but will go back to the well with the Celtics as they return home for Game 7 on Saturday. Boston has now dropped the cash in consecutive games - losing outright in both - and that's notable as it has lost more than two games in a row ATS only twice going all the way back to November 5th and not since January. Meanwhile, the 76ers have seen each of their last seven two-game ATS winning streaks stop there and have won more than two games in a row ATS just twice since January 5th. The shots simply haven't been falling for Boston over the last couple of games as it was held to exactly 36 field goals in both Games 5 and 6. I'm confident we'll see the C's bounce back and close out this series in convincing fashion on Saturday. Take Boston (10*).