Sean Murphy

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Pirates took two of three games in San Francisco last weekend but haven't been able to keep the positive momentum building back at home, dropping the first two games in this series. I do expect to see them give the Brewers a good run on Thursday night and will grab the insurance run at what I consider to be a generous price.

Freddy Peralta has been terrific for the Brewers this season. There's no denying that. It's interesting to note, however, that the Pirates have made him work, drawing eight walks and scoring five earned runs in 11 innings against him this season. Peralta's last win against the Pirates came in 2018 and that victory was by a narrow 3-2 margin.

Behind Peralta is a Brewers bullpen that hasn't been all that reliable on the road this season, converting just 10 saves while blowing nine.

Chad Kuhl got off to a rough start for the Buccos this season but has since turned things around. In fact, he's allowed only nine earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 32 2/3 innings of work. Kuhl got roughed up the last time he faced the Brewers but that was in Milwaukee. He's been a different pitcher at home this season, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in five starts.

The Pirates bullpen has quietly converted 10 saves while blowing only one in night games this season. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs.

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N.L. First Five Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Padres are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs against the A's but I look for a different story to unfold against the Rockies on Thursday - at least in the early stages of this one.

Kyle Freeland will take the ball for the Rockies. The Padres will be seeing him for the third time this season and while they've had some previous success against him, he does come into this start pitching well, noting that he's allowed three earned runs or less in six straight starts. The 'under' has actually cashed in five of his six road outings this season. I'll also point out that the Padres offense has been slightly weaker both at home and against left-handed pitching this season.

By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid factoring in an awful Rockies bullpen that has struggled all season, particularly away from home.

Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He's been outstanding at home this season but did struggle in his most recent outing against the Rockies, which did come here in San Diego. Keep in mind, he was pitching on just four days' rest in that one. Here, he starts on a full five days' rest and should improve on his stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. Better still, Musgrove owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. The Rockies have of course been a weaker offensive club both on the road and against right-handed pitching this season. Take the first five innings under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Canada and Mexico at 10 pm et on Thursday.

While Mexico should certainly prevail in this match to advance to the Gold Cup Final, victories have rarely come easy for El Tri at this stage of the tournament and Canada serves as the very definition of a 'tough out'. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday.

I actually think this one could play out similarly to Canada's narrow loss to the USA earlier in this tournament. Without the likes of Cyle Larin and of course Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, the Canadians don't have the firepower to welcome a high-scoring affair here. Mexico has shown a desire to go on the attack throughout this tournament, while also keeping a clean sheet from wire-to-wire so far.

After scoring three goals against Honduras I suspect Mexico will be hard-pressed to find the back of the net more than once in this one. On the flip side, Canada simply doesn't have its 'A' squad right now due to injuries and will find the Mexican back end extremely difficult to break down. Take the under (6*).