Sean Murphy

My selection is on Toronto over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

After getting drummed in the opener of this series last night I look for the Blue Jays to respond with a victory of their own on Saturday. Steven Matz has been solid for the Jays in the early going this season, checking in with a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a .238 opponents batting average. He'll be up against Astros starter Cristian Javier, who owns an eye-popping 1.75 ERA and 0.90 WHIP but has also posted a 42.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 37.3% fly ball percentage. After recording a lofty 5.1% home run percentage during his rookie campaign last year he's brought that number down to 1.0% so far this season but I'm expecting some regression to the mean in that department. Note that the Jays check in 16-8 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 10 runs or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.2 runs in that situation. Take Toronto (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday.

We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Wild skated to a 4-3 overtime victory. The Ducks set the tone for that one with an early goal in the game's first eight minutes but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Ducks coming off an 'over' result this season. They average just 1.7 goals per game in that spot with an average total of only 4.9 goals. On a positive note, Anaheim does check in allowing just 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up nine times with those games averaging only 3.8 total goals. The Wild have performed well offensively in recent weeks but off six consecutive one-goal games - with the last two decided in overtime - I certainly feel a letdown could be in order here. Minnesota would like nothing more than to jump ahead early and manage the game the rest of the way, noting that it has allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Despite last night's result, the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series here in Minnesota and eight of the last 13 matchups overall over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*).

Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the Jets in Ottawa earlier this week but then did cash with Winnipeg as it finally snapped its long losing streak with a win in Calgary on Wednesday. Here, I'll go back to the well with the Jets as they return home and look to build some positive momentum in the opener of a regular season-ending four-game homestand. The Senators are in an awful spot here having gone 1-15 following a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons. They've been outscored by an average margin of 1.9 goals in that situation. They also check in 2-16 the last 18 times they've come off consecutive games where they allowed two goals or less, outscored by 1.9 goals on average in that spot as well. The Jets have gone 10-4 after losing two of their last three games this season, averaging 3.4 goals per game in that situation. They've also gone a solid 19-11 when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Winnipeg has taken four of the last six meetings between these two teams on home ice and should improve on that mark here. Take Winnipeg (8*).

Sean went 6-3 including free plays last night and extends his 182-152 (+$432) run with a FIVE-GAME card of NBA, MLB and NHL winners on Saturday! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*).