Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Calgary at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The Kraken have had a couple of days off to regroup after back-to-back losses in Minnesota and Edmonton. That extra rest should help them reset defensively as they look to slow down a Calgary team that could be vulnerable to a letdown. The Flames return home following a successful four-game road trip that ended with three straight wins, including a 4-3 victory on Long Island on Saturday. While the ‘over’ has hit in each of Calgary’s last two games, its season-long home trends suggest a different outcome on Tuesday, as the ‘under’ has cashed 19 times in 34 games at the Saddledome, with those contests averaging just 5.5 total goals.

Additionally, all three prior meetings between these teams this season have stayed ‘under’ the total. Seattle’s defensive structure has been sound for much of the season, and with extra preparation time, it should be well-equipped to keep this game tight. The Kraken have struggled to generate consistent offense on the road, which plays into the likelihood of a lower-scoring affair. Meanwhile, Calgary has shown a tendency to tighten things up in these types of spots, especially coming off a road-heavy stretch. Expect a hard-fought, low-event game with quality chances at a premium.

Take the under. Projected score: Flames 3, Kraken 2.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado -1.5 goals over Detroit at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the extra goal with the Avalanche as they return home well-rested following consecutive off days after a solid 2-1 road trip in the East. Colorado has been dominant on home ice this season, posting a 23-10-2 record while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals per game. This sets up as a favorable situation for the Avs, as they catch a Red Wings team playing on the second night of a back-to-back following last night's 5-1 victory in Utah. The travel factor, combined with a goaltending situation suddenly in flux, puts Detroit in a tough spot against one of the league’s most explosive home teams.

The loss of goaltender Petr Mrazek due to injury in Monday’s contest is particularly concerning for the Red Wings, as he had been one of their steadiest performers in net. Cam Talbot will get the start on Tuesday, and his recent struggles are hard to ignore, with Detroit losing each of his last five starts while being outscored by a combined margin of 23-11. While the Red Wings found offensive success against Utah, they will have a much tougher time keeping pace with a high-flying Avalanche squad that has been firing on all cylinders at home. Expect Colorado to take control early and cruise to a multi-goal victory.

Take Colorado -1.5 goals. Projected score: Avalanche 5, Red Wings 2.

My selection is on Detroit minus the points over San Antonio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Pistons as they look to snap their three-game ATS losing streak against the Spurs. Detroit claimed the lone previous meeting between these teams this season, winning 125-110 back in February. That game could have been even more lopsided if not for an unusually strong shooting performance from San Antonio, which went 43-of-84 from the field. The Spurs enter this matchup riding a three-game straight-up and ATS winning streak, most recently dominating Toronto 123-89 on Sunday. However, the Raptors shot just 35-for-92 in that contest, a level of inefficiency the Pistons are unlikely to replicate.

Notably, San Antonio has struggled to maintain defensive momentum, as the last four times it has held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, it has subsequently allowed 46, 49, 47, and 51 made field goals in the following contest, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offense has been clicking, recording 46 or more made field goals in four straight contests. While its defense hasn’t been dominant, the Pistons have done a good job limiting their opponents’ shot volume, allowing 86 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. Expect Detroit to dictate the tempo and pull away for a convincing double-digit win.

Take Detroit. Projected score: Pistons 122, Spurs 106.

Tuesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Warriors as they look to rebound following a loss in Atlanta on Saturday. Golden State has struggled against the number recently, dropping the cash in consecutive games and posting a 2-7 ATS mark over its last nine contests. However, this sets up as a strong bounce-back opportunity against a Miami squad coming off a blowout win over Charlotte on Sunday and riding a three-game ATS winning streak. The Heat may be feeling comfortable after their recent success, but they now face a motivated Warriors team seeking revenge after Miami pulled off a 114-98 upset victory in San Francisco back in early January.

Golden State has been an inconsistent team this season, but it still possesses the firepower to break out at any time. The Warriors' offense should find success against a Miami squad that has struggled to contain high-tempo teams. Meanwhile, the Heat may not be able to replicate their recent offensive efficiency against a Warriors defense that, despite its flaws, has shown the ability to tighten up when needed. Look for Golden State to come out focused, dictate the pace, and pull away to a comfortable double-digit victory.

Take Golden State. Projected score: Warriors 118, Heat 105.

My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Houston at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'over' streak, while the Rockets saw their most recent contest go 'over' the total as well. However, I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Houston, much like we saw in the first meeting between these teams this season, which totaled just 196 points in Atlanta back in late January. While the Hawks have been impressive offensively during their current three-game winning streak, their defense has quietly been just as effective. They've held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and have done a solid job of disrupting opposing offenses, allowing 90 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have struggled mightily on the offensive end, making just 38, 39, and 39 field goals over their last three games. The silver lining for Houston has been its defensive consistency, as it has held six of its last eight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. With their offense in a slump, the Rockets have made a clear effort to slow the pace, allowing just 73 and 87 field goal attempts in their last two games. That slower tempo, combined with both teams’ recent defensive trends, points toward a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers anticipate.

Take the under. Projected score: Rockets 114, Hawks 109.

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York minus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the Knicks as this spot sets up well for them, having been idle since Saturday and looking for revenge after suffering a double-digit 'upset' loss in Dallas earlier this season. The Mavericks have won back-to-back games straight-up and three in a row against the spread. They've been shooting exceptionally well but have also benefited from a relatively soft schedule in terms of recent defensive opponents. That won’t be the case on Tuesday, as they face a Knicks squad that has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and six of those foes to fewer than 40.

Dallas has essentially thrown defense out the window in recent weeks, and the Knicks appear primed to take advantage. New York has been playing at a slightly faster pace recently, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests. That increase in tempo, combined with the Mavericks' defensive shortcomings, should pave the way for a strong offensive performance from the Knicks. Look for them to control this game from start to finish and roll to a convincing double-digit victory.

Take New York. Projected score: Knicks 119, Mavericks 104.