Sean Murphy

Sunday NHL Free play. My selection is on Minnesota over Tampa Bay at 2:05 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Wild on Friday as they blasted the Jets and I like them to notch a third straight win on Sunday as they host the Lightning in a quick revenge spot off last week's 5-4 loss in Tampa. Minnesota is a streaky team and right now it checks in playing well. The Lighting are also racking up wins right now but they're missing a number of key cogs including Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. While the Bolts do check in 5-2 on the road this season, they've allowed a less than impressive 3.0 goals per game in those seven contests. Here, they'll be up against a Wild squad that averages a whopping 4.6 goals per game on home ice, winning six of eight games to date here in the 'State of Hockey'. Note that Tampa is just 13-16 the last 29 times it has come off six or seven wins in its last eight games, as is the case here. Take Minnesota.

My selection is on Carolina over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.

With the Capitals 'fat and happy' off a perfect 2-0 homestand, we'll back the Hurricanes to prevail on Sunday afternoon in Raleigh. The Canes wrapped up a successful 4-2 road trip with a 6-3 win in Philadelphia on Friday. That snapped a two-game skid. Note that the Canes have given up an average of just 1.3 goals the last nine times they've played at home after losing two of their last three games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. Carolina is allowing only 1.7 goals per game on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive 1.9 goals on average. Take Carolina (6*).

AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*).

NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*).