Sean Murphy

CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Florida State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

This game sets up well for Miami against an unsuspecting Florida State squad that's coming off three straight wins and already defeated the Hurricanes by 20+ points earlier this season. Miami hasn't been able to recapture that lightning in a bottle it found in a home win over Duke back on February 1st. The Canes followed up that win with relatively close losses against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame before getting their doors blown off by Georgia Tech last time out. I expect them to bounce back in a sense here, noting that they've gone 16-6 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by around two points per game. Miami is also a long-term ATS winner at 29-15 ATS when coming off three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Florida State is 35-54 ATS in road games following three straight wins and has been outscored in those games by 0.6 points on average. Take Miami (10*).

NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

Despite the most recent meeting between these two teams in Detroit less than two weeks ago reaching 235 points (we won with the Pistons in that game) we aren't seeing much of an adjustment to the total here. The Pelicans were flat in Detroit in that recent Sunday night contest yet still managed to score 112 points. Here, I'm expecting a much better offensive performance, but the Pistons should be dragged along for the ride as well. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times the Pelicans have followed up an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 242.8 total points. The 'over' is also an incredible 15-3 when New Orleans plays at home off a win of any sort over the last two seasons with those games reaching an average of 241.8 total points. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, however we saw a similar situation earlier this month where the 'under' had gone 3-1 in their last four games as they went to L.A. to wrap up a road trip and that game totals 264 points. Here, the Pistons will be finishing up a five-game road trip before heading home to host the Kings on Friday. Take the over (10*).

Wednesday NHL Free play. My selection is on Toronto over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Leafs have become accustomed to rebounding off a loss in this unique 2021 NHL season. They check in 4-1 off a loss this season and should bounce back here as well. Note that Toronto owns a staggering 11-2 record when coming off a loss where it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. For their part, the Flames are 5-12 on the moneyline when coming off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. The Flames have a bit of adversity to deal with as standout goaltender Jakob Markstrom is dealing with an upper body injury and listed as day-to-day. Take Toronto (8*).

Sean is putting his 17-11 NHL big ticket run to the test with his 10* Division Game of the Month for February on Wednesday night! Grab a weekly or monthly subscription package now and get access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

NHL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Avs as they look to bounce back from a 3-0 loss suffered at the hands of the Golden Knights on Monday (we won with Vegas as our Underdog Game of the Month in that game). The Avs were certainly ripe for a letdown on Monday as they were fresh off their marathon victory over Vegas outdoors at Lake Tahoe two nights earlier. Minnesota is rolling along right now but that actually works against it in this particular spot. Note that the Wild are a miserable 9-24 on the moneyline the last 33 times they've followed consecutive wins by three goals or more. They've also struggled in similar revenge roles such as this, having gone 10-25 on the moneyline when revenging a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that situation. This has been a tightly-contested series over the years but the Avs have started to turn the tide, taking three of the last four meetings. While we are dealing with a fairly high price here, I believe it could be even higher. Take Colorado (10*).