Sean Murphy

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The White Sox delivered a 3-0 series sweep at Fenway Park earlier this month. Since then, Boston has turned it around, winning nine of its last 12 games. The same goes for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta as he checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last 22 innings of work, with the Sox winning his last two outings by a combined 12-2 score. Pivetta's only previous start here in Chicago came last September as he gave up just one unearned run over 5 1/3 innings. Dylan Cease will counter for the White Sox. He pitched well in that aforementioned series in Boston earlier this month but still owns an ugly 7.29 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in three career starts against the Red Sox. Chicago finds itself in a clearly obvious letdown spot here following an off day yesterday as it swept Sunday's double-header against the Yankees in the Bronx. Note that Chicago is just 9-10 here at U.S. Cellular Field this season where it has been outscored by 1.3 runs per game on average. Take Boston.

Sean WON AGAIN in NBA action last night and makes it 13 out of his last 15 NBA big ticket winners with his 10* Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year on Tuesday night; don't miss out!

My selection is on Kansas City over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The D'Backs shook off the jet-lag following an eight-game road trip to deliver a 9-6 win over the Royals last night. I look for Kansas City to answer back on Tuesday. Yes, the Snakes have their best starter on the hill in Zac Gallen on Tuesday. He'll be making his second consecutive start on just four days' rest, however, and it might be tough to be completely focused here against a lowly interleague opponent in the Royals. Note that Arizona continues to give up a lot of runs. It has allowed 5+ runs in eight of its last nine games. The D'Backs are still just 11-11 at home this season, averaging only 3.5 runs per game while being outscored by 0.3 runs on average. The Royals check in off five straight losses and certainly want to salvage something from this two-game stop in Arizona before an off day followed by a four-game set in Minnesota. Rookie starter Jon Heasley has run into a couple of tough lineups in his first two starts this season, the Rangers and White Sox. In two career road starts he has given up just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. Finally, we'll note that even after last night's win, the D'Backs are still just 2-11 in their last 13 interleague home games. Take Kansas City (8*).

My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Dodgers blew the doors off the Nationals last night which likely provides their backers on Tuesday with a false sense of security as they check in as a big favorite again here. The Nationals are catching Walker Buehler at the right time though, as he's been tagged for seven earned runs on 15 hits over his last two starts, spanning just 10 innings of work. He's failed to last beyond the fifth inning in three of his last four trips to the hill. The Dodgers are just 2-3 in Buehler's five career starts against Washington. He's pitched just once here in Washington, allowing seven runs, four of them earned, in 5 1/3 innings in an 11-4 loss back in 2019. The Nationals will counter with Josiah Gray. His numbers aren't great - in fact, at first glance they're pretty awful. However, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six consecutive starts and the Nats have come away victorious in five of his eight outings this season. Here, we'll note that the Dodgers are just 1-2 after scoring 10+ runs in their previous game this season while the Nationals are 3-1 this season when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 10+ runs. Both situations are of course in play here after the Dodgers prevailed by a 10-1 score in last night's series-opener. Take Washington (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in Chicago's most recent game as it won by an 82-73 score in Washington on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in the Sky's last two games and has gone 3-0-1 in their last four overall. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Despite the 'under' streak, the Sky are 'filling it up' offensively and should only get stronger now that Kahleah Copper has returned and shook off the rust with a 5-of-11 shooting performance on Sunday. Chicago has knocked down 36, 31, 28, 30 and 34 field goals in five games this season. Indiana doesn't figure to offer much resistance. The Fever have allowed 31+ made field goals in six of their eight games this season. They were locked down in a rematch with Connecticut on Sunday, scoring only 70 points but I'm confident we'll see them improve on that number here. Note that Chicago is in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after holding two terrific offensive teams in Seattle and Washington to 74 and 73 points. Note that it did allow 70+ field goal attempts in those two contests. Indiana may be without NaLyssa Smith again on Tuesday but that's been factored into this total. Take the over (8*).

Tuesday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Sunday night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' in Game 4 on Tuesday. The Oilers have Flames goaltender Jakob Markstrom's number, there's no question about that. After he stood on his head at times in the opening period on Sunday, the floodgates opened in the second and I expect to see some carry-over from that Oilers offensive explosion on Tuesday. With that being said, Calgary is a much better offensive team than it showed in Game 3 and Oilers goaltender Mike Smith isn't likely to turn in a second straight solid performance based on his track record this season. The Flames hardly tested Smith on Sunday but will here, noting that they've seen the 'over' go 8-1 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals in that spot. This season, the 'over' has gone 9-2 with Calgary seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored one goal or less, which is also the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals in that situation. Take the over.

Sean WON AGAIN in NBA action last night and makes it 13 out of his last 15 NBA big ticket winners with his 10* Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year on Tuesday night; don't miss out!

Tuesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mavericks have essentially played only one truly good half of basketball in this series - that coming in the first half of Game 2 as they exploded for 72 points and built a 14-point lead (that would evaporate in the second half). While they're not going to come back and win this series, I do expect them to at least extend the series for one more game with an inspired performance on Tuesday. Note that Dallas checks in 19-5 ATS after being held to 100 points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that situation. Using a large 121-game sample size, the Warriors have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS victories, which is also the situation here. While I've pointed it out more often in the NHL rather than the NBA, long winning streaks in the postseason aren't all that common and I look for the Warriors playoff-high four-game streak to grind to a halt in Big D on Tuesday. Take Dallas.

Sean WON AGAIN in NBA action last night and makes it 13 out of his last 15 NBA big ticket winners with his 10* Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year on Tuesday night; don't miss out!

My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

This series has been incredibly low-scoring - precisely what we expected after both teams got involved in far higher-scoring series' than anticipated in the opening round of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday as we watch a pivotal Game 4 unfold. Note that the 'under' is 17-6 with the Canes coming off a loss by 2+ goals against a divisional opponent over the last three seasons and 22-11 when playing on the road off a loss of any margin against a divisional foe over the last two campaigns. Both situations are in play here after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Game 3 (we won with the Rangers in that contest). The Rangers, meanwhile, have been a streaky 'under' team all season, with the 'under' going 31-18 when coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 when the Blueshirts play at home off a home victory, resulting in just 4.9 total goals on average in that situation. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The home team has won all three games so far in this series. In fact, the home team has now won all 10 of Carolina's playoff games to date. I believe that works in our favor here as we're able to grab the insurance goal with the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, noting that the home team hasn't won more than three consecutive games in this particular matchup since the 2016-17 season. While the Rangers took Game 3 of this series on Sunday (we won with New York in that game), you could certainly argue that the Hurricanes were the better team for much of the game, outshooting New York by a 44-33 margin. Carolina has already won twice at Madison Square Garden this season and checks in 25-20 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. When playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, we've seen the Canes outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average, allowing just 2.5 goals per contest in that situation (33-game sample size). We're obviously being asked to play a steep price to grab the insurance goal with Carolina here, but I believe it's warranted. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (6*).

Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*).