Cowboys @ Jets 4:25 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Jets +8.0 (5*)

This pick may seem like a stretch to most but not to me. The Jets defense remains a formidable unit despite their current 0-4 record. They’re particularly strong up front and will be facing a very banged up Cowboys offensive line. Sam Darnold will return from his recent bout with mononucleosis and will be making his first appearance since a season opening 17-16 loss to Buffalo. That should provide the Jets with an additional emotional boost.

New York is coming off a 31-6 loss at Philadelphia. However, they held the Eagles to just 265 yards of total offense in that game. Conversely, Dallas is coming off a disappointing 34-24 home loss to Green Bay. It’s also worth noting, Dallas has a turnover differential of -6 throughout their previous 4 games, and New York is +2 in 2019.

Any NFL non-division underdog of 4.5 to 10.0 that has a losing record (Jets), coming off 2 or more straight up losses in a row, and their previous defeat was by 21 points or more, versus an opponent (Cowboys) coming off a straight up loss by 10 or greater, and they possess a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going an extremely profitable 26-1 ATS since 1980. The underdogs also won 15 of those 27 games straight up. Bet on the Jets plus the points for a 5* wager.

Saints @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Jaguars -2.5 (5*)

This looks to be a vulnerable spot for the New Orleans Saints. Since Drew Brees went down with an injury in Week 2 which has kept him sidelined, the saints have reeled off 3 straight wins over the Rams, Cowboys, and Bucs. Now they travel to play on AFC team on the road with a losing 2-3 record, and up next is one of the NFC preseason favorites in the Chicago Bears. Teddy Bridgewater has been more than an adequate backup option in replace of Drew Brees, but this will be just his second road start since taking over.

If Jacksonville hopes to remain viable in the AFC South race, winning on Sunday would go a long way in doing so. Afterall, their next 2 games will come against the Bengals and Chiefs are currently a combined 0-9 and following that they’ll be hosting present AFC South leader Houston. I think it’s safe to say at this point that rookie quarterback Gardener Minshew is no fluke. Al Minshew has done since jumping in for injured starter Nick Foles is throw for 1279 yards in addition to tossing 9 touchdowns versus 1 interception. Minshew should get plenty of help from running back Leonard Fournette who’s rushed for 333 yards and averaged 6.4 yards per carry over his last 2 games.

Jacksonville is coming off a 34-27 loss at Carolina last week and failed to cover as a 3.0-point underdog. New Orleans is coming off a 31-24 home win over division rival Tampa Bay and covered as a 3.0-point favorite. Since 1986, NFL home teams that are a pick or favorite of 6.5 or less (Jaguars), coming off a non-division away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 6.0 or less, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division home favorite ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 7-0 SU&ATS.

Seahawks @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 255-256

Play On: Browns +1.5 (5*)

Cleveland is coming off an embarrassing 31-3 Monday night loss at San Francisco while failing to cover as a 5.0-point underdog. Seattle has won their last 2 to improve their season record to 4-1.

This will be the first time this season that Cleveland will be a home underdog of 6.0 or less following a straight up loss. The Browns were 3-0 SU&ATS a season ago as a home underdog of 6.0 or fewer following a straight up loss. They won those 3 contests by an average of 7.0 points per game. The public will certainly be all over Seattle on Sunday just from a perception standpoint alone. Sometimes you need to think outside the box when handicapping NFL games and I deem this to be one of those situations.

Any non-division home underdog of 3.0 or less that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent which has won 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those small home underdogs going a perfect 8-0 SU&ATS since 1992. This isn’t a huge sample size but proves when pertaining to NFL handicapping, bettors can sometimes be blinded by what appears to be an obvious choice, and they fail to delve in any further. Bet on Cleveland plus the points for a 5* wager.

Eagles @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Vikings -3.0 (10*)

The Eagles are coming off a convincing 31-6 home win over the Jets and easily covered as a large 13.0-point favorite. However, they were held to an alarmingly low 265 yards of total offense in that contest. That’s worrisome considering they will be facing a Vikings defense that’s #4 in the NFL in yards allowed at 292.4 per game. As a matter of fact, during their last 3 contests Minnesota has allowed just 13.3 points and 260.7 yards per game.

Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach of the Vikings in 2014, they’ve been a stellar 30-12 SU&ATS during regular season home games. Furthermore, they’ve gone a terrific 19-1 SU&ATS as a non-division home favorite of 11.0 or less under Zimmer, and that includes 10-0 ATS if they were facing an opponent with a winning record. Bet on the Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager.