Ricky Tran

Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers run-line.

I think LA bounces back big after yesterday’s upset loss. Tyler Beede looked good for San Francisco, but I don’t think that Shaun Anderson (2-1, 3.97 ERA) will fair as well today. Anderson has been decent no doubt, most recently holding the Friars to two runs over six innings on June 12th. Anderson’s been good, but Dodgers’ veteran Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 3.13) has been great this year; note that he’s gone at least six innings in every start this year and at least seven in five of 11 (note as well that Kershaw is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA in 3330 1/3’s innings vs. San Fran lifetime.) 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is just 8-13 vs. southpaws this season.

- LA is 24-6 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season.

- The Dodgers are 9-2 this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite.

The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick em price!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Rockies/D-Backs.

It’s interesting to note that Arizona is the only team in the majors with an above .500 record, but with a losing record at home (14-16.) The D-Backs kick-off a nine-game home stand tonight. Colorado is 5-2 so far in the season series, but this is the first time the teams will have met in Phoenix. The Rockies just combined for 92 runs in a four-game series with the Padres and I think that the shift in venue will lead to a letdown in production at the plate. The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (7-6, 3.73 ERA) on the mound tonight and he enters on fire, having allowed two runs over his past three starts spanning 22 1/3’s innings of work. The visitors go with Antonio Senzatela (5-5, 5.48), who faced the D-Backs on May 28th and would give up two runs over six innings. 

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

- Arizona has seen the total dip under in seven of ten at home already this season when the total is either 9 or 9.5. 

The verdict: After their historic run production over the weekend, I think Colorado’s bats “cool off” in this difficult matchup. This number is high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the over Marlins/Cards.

Marlins rookie Jordan Yamamoto (1-0, 0.00 ERA) made his MLB debut at home vs. the Cards last week and he’d strike out five and go seven scoreless. I think there’s only one way Yamamoto’s performance can go in his second start though and I believe the rookie will indeed struggle in this difficult road venue. The home side sees Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.28) toe the slab; he most recently was shelled for four runs over five innings vs. the Mets on Thursday. 

Key Trends:

- Miami has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as an underdog in the +175 to +250 range.

- St. Louis has seen the total soar over in eight of 13 this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight.

The verdict: The book is still out on Yamamoto and I have a hard time seeing the rookie duplicating his debut performance. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over!

Ricky’s 8* play on the under Red Sox/Twins.

Two veteran hurlers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one on Tuesday and everything points to a classic “duel” in my opinion. The visitors go with their best pitcher in David Price (4-2, 3.52 ERA), while the home side goes with Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.04). Minnesota was actually shut out for the first time this season in last night’s 2-0 loss (snapping a 14-game home win streak.) Note as well that Price is 10-4 with a minuscule 2.62 ERA in 18 career games vs. the Twins. Pineda owns a 4.13 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston. Pineda has been much better of late and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer over six straight starts. 

Key Trends:

- Boston has seen the total go under in six of seven as a road dog this season already.

- Minnesota has seen the total dip under in five of six already this season at home when the total is set at either 10 or 10.5.

The verdict: The writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. This number is a little high, play the under!

Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Mets.

Two pitchers who won’t be lacking for motivation collide in this one Tuesday night. Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.38 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets and he’ll be opposed by the Braves’ Julio Teheran (5-4, 2.92). deGrom has a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts and over 116 career innings vs. the Braves he has a minuscule 1.86 ERA. Teheran has had success vs. the Mets in the past and he’s in fine form currently, but the numbers point to a letdown here for the surging home side. 

Key Trends:

- The Mets are 11-4 (+6.6 units) already this year after having lost five or six of their last seven games.

- The Braves are 5-8 in their last 13 off a win by eight runs or more vs. a division rival.

The verdict: I think the “hungrier” team rallies behind its ace. Great value on deGrom and the Mets on Tuesday night!