Ricky Tran

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Brewers/Cardinals.

These teams are embroiled in a wild card hunt and while each has plenty of firepower to put runs at the board at any given moment, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers of tonight’s game who become the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. The visitors see Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) toe the slab, while Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82) gets the nod for the home side. Davies faltered in the second half, but he now returns refreshed after a stint on the DL (note that Davies has been at his best on the road this season as well, going 4-2 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA.) Hudson comes in off a gem, holding the Royals scoreless over six innings, allowing only five hits, two walks, while also striking out five (note that Hudson has been at his best at home this year as well with a 4-2, 3.60 ERA record to this point.) 

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between -135 and +135.

- St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven National League night home contests in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

The verdict: I’m expecting these staters to throw deep and for this total to stay well below the number once it’s all said and done; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cincinnati Reds.

I have no problem laying this price considering the talent discrepancy between the starting pitchers tonight. The visitors see Eric Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) toe the slab and he most recently gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays (note that Lauer’s been at his worst on the road this year as well, going 3-5 with a ballooned 6.20 ERA.) Trevor Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Nationals on Wednesday, allowing nine runs off eight hits over four innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for the veteran though, so there’s clearly no reason to hit the panic button. 

Key Trends:

- San Diego is just 2-6 in its last eight National League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range.

- Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -135 to -185 range.

The verdict: I like Bauer to bounce back in friendly confines and I expect Lauer’s road issues to once again rear their ugly head; lay the price!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under.

Both teams looked shaky in their respective openers. Denver returns home after a 22-14 setback in Seattle. It’s interesting to note that the Broncos are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 preseason games at Mile High. 49ers’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw five INT’s in practice this week and suddenly San Francisco has more questions than answers on the offensive side of things (note that there 49ers scored a total of just 30 points in two preseason games a year ago.) 

Key Trends:

- Denver has seen the total go under in three straight preseason games.

- San Francisco has seen the total go under in four of its last six preseason contests.

The verdict: I don’t think that a shift in venue to the thin air of Denver is going to help either of these scuffling offensive units; play the under!