Ricky Tran

My 9* DELIGHT is on the LA Rams.

I have been surprised by the 49ers, but I'm still not convinced by Jimmy Garopolo and company. Yes the Rams have suffered a Super Bowl letdown this year and yes they'll be without RB Todd Gurley, but LA's offense still ranks in the top 10 right now. With Jared Goff leading the show at home, I believe a beatdown is in the cards here. San Francisco comes in complacent and flat in my opinion after its great start and on the short week after the MNF victory over the Browns. 

Key Trends:

- San Francisco is still only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division.

- LA is 3-1 ATS vs. the conference this year.

- The Rams are 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

The verdict: Look for San Fran to finally have a letdown here; lay the short points!

My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Saints/Jags.

This is a big contest and I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job filling in for Drew Brees, winning three straight, but I think he'll have his hands full here in this difficult road venue. Garnder Minshew has also filled in admirably in a backups role for the Jags, winning two of his first four starts. 

Key Trends:

- The Saints average and concede 23 PPG.

- The Jags average 22 points and they allow 23.

The verdict: I can't see the home side wanting to turn this one into a "shootout" with the high-flying Saints. Instead, I look for the home side to try and control this one and limit mistakes while on offense. This one has low-scoring "under" written all over it!

My 9* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Houston Texans.

Houston is 3-2 and KC is 4-1. The Chiefs are a "Joe Public" team with Patrick Mahomes under center, but I think that Houston and DeShaun Watson can keep pace down the stretch. The outright isn't out of the question, but this is a contest which I envision being decided late. Don't think Houston can keep pace with the Chiefs high-flying offense? Better think again after the Texans posted the resounding 53-32 win over the Falcons last weekend. The Chiefs on the other hand come in off their first loss of the season, inexplicably falling to the Colts at home. 

Key Trends:

- Houston is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog (including 2-0 this year.)

- Kansas City is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite.

The verdict: I think the stage is set for another outright upset. That said, let's grab up all these points!

My 8* CROWD PLEASER is on the Bengals.

The Bengals are 0-5 and their season is over. But the team will still try to win games and build momentum as it looks to re-build and look-ahead to next year. They'll want to play spoiler here for a Ravens team which is 3-2, but which has also shown great inconsistency from week to week so far this year as well. 

Key Trends:

- Cincinnati is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range (including 1-0 ATS this season.) 

- The Bengals are still 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division.

- The Ravens are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road.

The verdict: I like this under the radar underdog to push its host to the limit; grab the points!

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns.

For this pick I'm looking at it from an overall situational stand point and in my opinion, this one simply means "more" to the home side. The Browns are off a terrible showing on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers and they'll be looking to move back to .500 with a small upset at home here. The Hawks on the other hand have to travel across country for an early afternoon non-conference contest, after their thrilling win at home over division rival LA. I'm not convinced that Seattle really does have the "better" team on paper. The Browns issues mostly revolve around themselves shooting themselves in the foot. I expect a much better effort at home from Cleveland and I do indeed feel this also sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors.

Key Trends:

- Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two more consecutive victories.

- Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game.

The verdict: I expect Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to deliver the goods on their home field; grab the point/s!

My 1* FREE PLAY is on the LA Chargers. 

I don't think there's any reason to "over-think" this one. Pittsburgh's season is over at 1-4, while LA is desperate to get back into the winners circle at 2-3. Pittsburgh QB' Mason Rudolph is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about whether or not he's truly at 100% health after last week's concussion? Philip Rivers and company have two straight tough road contests after this (Tennessee and Chicago), which essentially makes this a "must win" contest for the home side. 

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 vs. the conference.

- LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

The verdict: Pittsburgh isn't in the frame of mind to even use the "spoiler factor" as motivation right now. This one has "blowout" written all over it in my opinion; consider the Chargers this weekend!