Mike Lundin

Guardians vs. Tigers Free Pick

The Angle(s): Guardians left-hander Foster Griffin (12-4, 3.31 ERA) was a monster with Washington before arriving in Cleveland, and he enters this outing eager to rebound after a bump in his Cleveland debut. Prior to that hiccup, Griffin was on an absolute tear, boasting a sub-2.00 ERA over a seven-start stretch in June and July.

Detroit southpaw Framber Valdez (7-7, 4.17 ERA) is coming off a dominant performance where he tossed seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts against Seattle. Valdez has pitched seven full frames in back-to-back starts and allowed just four earned runs total over his last 19 innings. Combined with a Tigers pitching staff that has held opponents scoreless in four of their last six contests, runs should be at an absolute premium.

The Bet: Under (3%)

Brewers(Padres Total

The Angle(s): The Padres send southpaw Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.24 ERA) to the mound at Petco Park as San Diego looks to continue its strong summer push. Ray has been in excellent form, boasting a 2.42 ERA over his past five starts, and he gets a favorable spot in San Diego, where marine layer conditions and pitcher-friendly outfield dimensions naturally keep fly balls inside the park.

The Brewers counter with righty Dustin May (6-7, 4.30 ERA), who possesses elite stuff and heavy ground-ball production. While May’s season ERA sits at 4.30, his underlying metrics demonstrate high ground-ball rates that fit ideal matchup dynamics at Petco Park.

With two starting pitchers equipped with tools to minimize early danger, runs will be extremely difficult to come by.

The Bet: Under (3%). 

EARLY 4% MLB TOTAL TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Despite a few post-All-Star bumpiness outings, Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (10-3, 2.69 ERA), remains one of the premier front-line arm suppressors in baseball, holding elite strikeout metrics and commanding an ERA that reliably keeps opponent rally opportunities to a minimum. The Cardinals counter with right-hander Kyle Leahy (8-4, 3.45 ERA), who continues his breakthrough campaign as a steady, ground-ball-inducing starter. Coming off Tuesday’s low-scoring 2-0 battle, both lineups are operating on a quick turnaround for this day contest.

The Bet: Under (4%). 

Mets/Braves Total

The Angle(s): The Mets send southpaw Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA) to the mound, who quietly has been putting together a very solid rookie season. Braves righty Tyler Mahle (3-9, 4.83 ERA) has a poor win-loss record, but his peripheral metrics suggest he's capable of keeping a depleted New York order in check. The Mets' lineup is currently compromised with key run-producers like Juan Soto and Mark Vientos on the injured list.  With one lineup missing its primary power sources and a sharp young starter in Thornton commanding the strike zone, runs should be at a premium.

The Bet: Under (3%). 

4% MLB Moneyline TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): This looks like a good spot back the Chicago White Sox to bounce back from a 5-4 loss. Despite the loss in the series-opener, they're still 13-7, +26% ROI as home favorites and 6-3, +20% ROI as home favorites off a loss. White Sox righty Luis Castillo (3-9, 5.30 ERA) (was rocked by Boston in his White Sox debut, but I expect him to bounce back against a team he spent 2017-2022 with.  

The Bet: White Sox (4%).