Larry Ness

My free play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:37 ET.

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a postseason berth with a victory over the visiting New York Yankees Thursday night in the finale of a four-game series in Buffalo (Toronto's home away from home in this COVID-shortened season). The teams split the first two games but the Jays won 14-1 last night, as the Yankees played a sloppy game in making four errors on the night and failing to score a run after loading the bases with none out in the fifth with the Blue Jays leading 5-1. The Tampa Bay Rays clinched first in the AL East on Wednesday by defeating the Mets 8-5 while the Yankees are second in the division, three games ahead of the third-place Blue Jays. However, the Yankees still have motivation, as they still have a chance at the No. 4 seed, which gets them home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

It's a matchup of left-handers on Thursday, as Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 5.12 ERA) takes on Hyun Jin Ryu (4-2, 3.00 ERA). Montgomery made 29 appearances (17 starts) in 2017, going 9-7 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. However, Tommy John surgery limited him to just eight appearances (seven starts) in 2018 and 2019. He's been healthy enough this season to make nine starts and the Yanks are 5-4 in his starts. A closer look reveals that while he's been decent at Yankee Stadium, in his three road starts, he's lasted just 12 innings while posting an 8.25 ERA and opponents have batted .315 against him! 

The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Hyun Jin Ryu, who went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but since Aug 1, the Jays are 7-2 in his eight starts (Toronto is 8-3 in his 11 starts, overall). He allowed five ERs in a Sep 7 start vs the Yankees but Toronto came back to win that game, 12-5. In his other EIGHT starts since Aug 1, he's allowed only SEVEN earned runs in 46 innings for a 1.37 ERA and a 54-9 KW ratio. Yes, his FA signing was a "good one!" Take the Jays!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

The Dodgers have won the NL West for the EIGHTH consecutive season and also have clinched the NL's No. 1 seed. LA hosts the Oakland A's Thursday night in the "rubber" game of this series, before welcoming the Angels to Dodger Stadium over the weekend for a three-game, season-ending series. The 34-21 A's have clinched the AL West title (first time since 2013) but still have an outside shot at catching the TB Rays for the AL's top record (sit two games back with four left / Rays have just 3 remaining games). Clinching the AL's second-best record.

Thursday's pitching matchup will feature Oakland's Mike Fiers (6-2, 4.67) and LA's Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.86 ERA). I've regularly played on Fiers this season and why not? It's true that his overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.39 WHIP and .278 BAA to go along with his 4.67 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 8-2 in his 10 starts in 2020.Surprised? You shouldn't be if you've been paying attention. Since Fiers joined Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 53 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-14 (.736) in those contests! 

Here's the rub with Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. However, he's had a difficult 2020, making only SEVEN starts in which he's been able to earn just ONE win. That said, he has yet to lose and the Dodgers are 6-1 in his starts, as he's posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and outstanding BAA of .187. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says he intends to use Clayton Kershaw and Buehler as his starters in next week's opening round of the playoffs but has not named a third starter. The key being, can Buehler prove he is up for the task? Otherwise, the Dodgers will have two playoff rotation vacancies. Buehler last pitched Sep 8 at Arizona, lasting just 2.2 innings and leaving with continued finger issues. 

Buehler comes off the injured list to make this start, testing the blister on his right index finger that has placed him on the disabled list twice in the last 4 1.2 weeks. It will be his first career outing against Oakland. Meanwhile, getting back to Fiers, he's made six appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA. What a great price on Fiers. Take it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The Houston Astros' sign-stealing allegations were expected to be front and center in MLB 2020 but COVID-19, forcing an abbreviated 60-game schedule, pushed that narrative to the 'back-burner.' Houston came into the current season off THREE straight 100-win years from 2017-2019 in which it appeared in two World Series (won in 2017 and lost in seven games in 2019), Houston stumbled at the start of 2020 by beginning 7-10 but an eight-game winning streak got them to 15-10. However, the team has gone 13-18 since it was 15-10 and enters Thursday 28-28. The good news for Houston is that the second-place finisher in each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. Houston' currently owns a 2 1/2-game lead over the Angels for second in the AL West with just FOUR games The Astros squandered an opportunity to clinch a postseason berth on Wednesday and put themselves in a position to face a stressful four-game weekend series in Arlington. That said, the Texas Rangers are just 19-37 on the season and if the Astros can't seal down a playoff spot against them, Houston doesn't deserve a playoff appearance. Remember, the Astros can also clinch a spot with some 'help' (losses) by the Angels. The Angels don't play tonight but then cap their season with three games at Dodger Stadium (Dodgers own MLB's best record but have also clinched the NL's No 1 seed, so have little motivation).

The Rangers have a brand-new beautiful stadium in Globe Life Field but have gone just 13-13 at home this season (no fans surely didn't help). However, Texas does own a MAJOR pitching advantage in this first game of the series, as Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53 ERA) takes the mound against Houston rookie Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.33 ERA).Javier has made 11 appearances in 2020, including nine starts. His ERA is 3.55 and his WHIP is 1.01 in those nine starts (team is 6-3) with 42 Ks over 45.2 innings. Javier has shown promise but I don't believe he's up to the task of besting Lance Lynn, especially considering that Houston has scored more than three runs just FOUR times over its last 16 games (over five series)!

Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400-plus innings over 258 appearances (234 starts) with a 104-70 record (3.53 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lynn has logged seven innings in each of his previous three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 21 strikeouts while limiting opposing batters to a .189 average during that stretch.

Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.53 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.53), his WHIP is 0.96 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .184, 59 points better than his LT mark (.243). Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 5-1 (1.88 ERA) at home here in 2020, holding opponents to .161 BAA. This small home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one.

Good luck...Larry