Larry Ness

My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 4 is on the SF Giants at 9:07 ET.

The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants are going head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR last Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.

I guess it should come as no surprise that this series has 'gone the distance' and that Thursday baseball fans will be treated to a Game 5 "winner-take-all" contest with the victorious team moving on to the NLCS where the Atlanta Braves are waiting. Tonight's starting pitchers are NOT household names but they are two of MLB 2021's most OUTSTANDING starters. The Dodgers' Julio Urias was MLB's only 20-game winner in 2021, finishing the season with a 20-8 record and a 2.96 ERA. He also ended with an elite 1.02 WHIP plus a 195/38 KW ratio over 185.2 innings of work. The Giants Logan Webb finished the regular season at 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a 158-35 KW ratio. Webb's record is good but not OUTSTANDING. To see that, one has to look 'deeper.'

Webb's last loss came way back on May 5, as over his last 21 starts (including a 4-0 win in Game 1 of this series), he's 11-0 with the Giants going 19-2. The Giants went 21-5 in Webb's regular season starts in 2021, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (+$1,283) among starters. Now that's OUTSTANDING! However, getting back to Urias, he ain't far behind. The left-hander's last loss came back on June 21. He entered Game 2 of this series having gone 8-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 11 starts, with the Dodgers winning all 11. After LA lost Game 1, a Game 2 victory was a must and Urias delivered a five-inning, three-hit, one-run effort. LA led 2-1 when he exited and the Dodgers would score four runs in the 6th to pull away for a 9-2 win, Including that contest, Urias is 12-0 over his last 18 starts with LA going 16-2. Take that Mr Webb! Let me also note that pitching away from home was not a concern all season for Urias, as he went 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 18 road starts (Dodgers were 15-3). Throw in Game 2 and make it 14-2 with LA going 16-3.

Which starting pitcher and which team will 'BLINK' in Game 5. The Dodgers do own all the recent playoff experience, playing in their NINTH straight postseason and hold the title of defending champs. Yes, the Giants won ONE more game than the Dodgers during the regular season but LA owned MLB's best run-differential at plus-269 (a GREAT indicator of a team's strength), 59 runs better than the Giants mark of plus-210. However, the Giants went 54-27 at home, MLB's second-best home record. Naturally, the Dodgers own MLB's best home record at 58-23 but it's the Giants who are at home for this Game 5 decider! Zeroing in on the Urias/Webb matchup, the two have squared off THREE times in 2021 with the Giants winning all THREE, as Webb allowed four ERs over 16 innings for a 2.25 ERA. I noted Urias' excellent road record but Webb made 13 home appearances (12 starts), going 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA, allowing just 55 hits in 73.1 innings (.213 BAA) with 86 Ks. He then threw 7.2 scoreless innings at home vs the Dodgers in Game 1 of this series.

Bottom line is, I don't believe San Francisco's 'magical' season is ready to end. With Willie Mays watching (note: Joe Posnanski's new book, The Baseball 100, just rated "the Say Hey Kid" as MLB's No. 1 player of all time), this game ends with the Giants on top. Paraphrasing Russ Hodges' classic call after "The Shot Heard 'Round the World,"..."The Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant and they're going crazy!" OK, it's not the pennant but rather the NLDS but you get the point!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina.

Brady leads the NFL with 1,767 passing yards, completing 66.2% with 15 TDs and just two INTs for a QB rating of 108.5. Speaking of interceptions, he also has an ongoing franchise record of 203 consecutive passes without one. "What he does is crazy, especially at his age and with the level of play that he has been able to sustain for such a long time," Buccaneers WR Mike Evans told reporters. "It's unreal and I don't think we will ever see it again." Evans has 29 receptions (4 TDs), tying him with Godwin for most catches. Antonio Brown has 20 catches and three TDs, while TE Gronk has 16 catches and four TDs. However, Gronk has missed the last two games and along with Godwin, is questionable for this game. Brady, who has a thumb injury (but he's Superman, right?), is having a great season despite getting little help from a running game that is averaging only 82.0 YPG (26th). The Tampa Bay defense was great during last season's Super Bowl run but this year's unit ranks 1st in allowing 45.8 YPG rushing but 32nd in yards allowed passing (314.4).

The Eagles have decided that Jalen Hurts is their No. 1 QB and he' showing promise. He's completing 64.8%, averaging 324.2 YPG plus has seven TDs and three INTs. He's also a dangerous runner, gaining 256 yards on 6.0 YPC with three TDs. RB Sanders is solid, with 214 yards on 4.5 YPC. Heisman-winner Smith has 325 catches but is averaging a less-than-impressive 12.5 YPC. Watkins has 13 catches and an excellent 20.5 YPC. Philly has two good TEs in Goedert (15 catches) and Ertz (14), which is good news with Goedert currently sidelined. The defense is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) but matches up well here vs Brady, allowing just 194.8 YPG through the air, third-best in the NFL.

Brady expressed concern about the short preparation time to dissect a Philadelphia defense that features three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay and two stellar defensive linemen in six-time Pro Bowler Fletcher Cox and breakout star Javon Hargrave. Slay intercepted two passes and CB Steven Nelson picked off one as Philadelphia recovered from a 15-3 deficit late in the second quarter to win 21-18.

Philadelphia's 21-18 road victory over Carolina essentially saved its season last weekend. Philadelphia's defense looked great in that one, holding Sam Darnold's offense to just 177 passing yards, to go along with three interceptions (Eagles also posted three sacks). Tampa Bay may be a little tired and note that the Bucs are 0-2 ATS on the road this season, losing by 10-points at the Rams and 'escaping' with a two-point win in New England, when the Pats' potential game-winning FG hit the left goal post.  Note that since Brady's come on board, the Bucs are also just 4-6 ATS as a road favorite with a plus-4.3 spread differential. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry