Larry Ness

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals visited the Bengals in Week 5 sitting 0-3-1 on the season and hadn't won in Cincinnati in 12 years. What's more, Arizona had won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone. The good news was, the 0-4 Bengals were in worse shape than the Cards. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance last Sunday, throwing for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (he had a TD run). Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23, giving the Cardinals their first win of the season. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards to join Steve Young (1998), Kurt Warner (2000), Peyton Manning (2009 and 2013) and Patrick Mahomes (2019) as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team's first five games of a season. However, the Falcons lost 53-32 at Houston, falling to 1-4 on the season (0-3 on the road).

Atlanta has spent a week in the desert after getting beaten at Houston, as the Falcons chose not to fly home after the loss. Instead, Atlanta flew directly from Houston to Phoenix and practiced this past week on Arizona State's campus.Sure, Ryan can put up huge numbers but in a few short seasons, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 28th in rushing at 67.6 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). Atlanta's defense is a mess (30.4 PPG allowed ranks 31st) and enters this contest having lost two safeties to injury while the team's non-existent pass rush could not sack Deshaun Watson even ONCE last Sunday (Watson had been sacked 18 times through his first four games).

Murray was the first overall pick of the 2019 Draft but so far, he's led an offense that looks great in the middle of the field but has bogged down in the red zone. Arizona ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 scoring drives this season but the problem is that 14 of those drives ended with FGs instead of TDs. However, Murray was superb during the Cardinals' game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last Sunday, igniting it with a 24-yard pass and running for another 24 yards a few plays later, after his intended receiver slipped. Murray became the first rookie QB since Tennessee's Marcus Mariota in 2015 to throw for 250 yards and run for 90 in a game. He currently leads all first-year QBs in passing yards with 1,324. Arizona's had its issues on defense this season (27.6 PPG ranks 28th) but the Cardinals are tied for the NFL lead with 11 forced fumbles.

The Cardinals got their first taste of winning last Sunday (on the road, no less) and winning is contagious. However, so is losing. The record book tells us that is was just three years ago (the 2016 season), when the Falcons were playing in the Super Bowl and led the Pats 28-3 in the third quarter. However, that seems like 'light years' ago right now. Atlanta has gone 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season (allowing 36.0 PPG). Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Falcons have gone 4-15 ATS on the road, which is a 79% ATS "go-against!"

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.”

The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th).

However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick).

Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times!

Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game.

I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My free play is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

he Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards.

Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th).

Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks.

My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!).

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd).

Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2).

Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season.

Good luck...Larry