Larry Ness

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays entered the current season off three straight postseason appearances (the team has won the AL East in both 2020 and 2021), The Red Sox have won four World Series titles since 2004 but Boston struggled to a 24-36 record in the 2020 season, before surprising most by going 92-70 in 2021. The Red Sox made it to the ALCS but lost 4-2 to the Astros. The AL East is loaded in 2022 but it looks as if no one will catch the Yankees, who own MLB's best record at 58-23. The Rays and Red Sox opened a three-game series July 4th at Fenway, with Boston earning a 4-0 win, but the Rays rebounded with an 8-4 win last night. The Red Sox are currently 45-36 (13 games behind the Yankees), just ahead of 44-37 Tampa Bay and 44-38 Toronto. The Rays ripped Pivetta last night (7 ERs in 5.2 innings), who entered the game having allowed two ERs or less in EIGHT of his last 10 starts, going 8-1 (Boston was 9-1) with a 2.12 ERA.

Highly touted pitching prospect Brayan Bello will make his major league debut for the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, with starter Rich Hill on the 15-day injured list with a knee sprain. The call went to the 23-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, who has piled up 114 strikeouts over 85 innings in the minors this season. He has gone 6-2 with a 2.81 ERA in nine games for Triple-A Worcester, the last of which was on Friday. He's been in the Boston system since 2018 and was the 2021 Red Sox Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year.

Bello will make his MLB debut against Corey Kluber (3-5, 3.91 ERA). Kluber is a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner, but he has dealt with a variety of injuries over the past few years that have limited his availability. The Rays took a chance on him by signing him to a one-year, $8 million deal, hoping he could provide leadership as well as some productive innings on the mound. His W-L record is unimpressive but let me note the following. Kluber allowed eight ERs (in just three innings) at the LA Angels back on May 10. However, over his next EIGHT starts, he allowed only 13 ERs over 43.1 innings (2.70 ERA) with a 39-5 KW ratio. The fact that the Rays were just 4-4 in those starts was hardly Kluber's fault.

However, Kluber's strong eight-start run ended in his last outings, as he allowed five ERs in just three innings of a 9-2 loss to the Blue Jays last Friday. That said, I'm taking the two-time Cy Young winner (as an underdog) against the rookie making his first career start in legendary Fenway Park.

Good luck...Larry

My free play is on the LA Angels at 6:40 ET.

The LA Angels are coming off a 77-85 season in 2021 and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). The Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The Angels visit South Beach for a brief two-game set with Miami at Marlins Park. Los Angeles came out strong to open the current season and through May 24th, was 27-17. That left them just ONE game behind the Astros in the AL West, who owned a 28-16 record on the same date. However, the Angels began a 14-game losing streak on May 25 that lasted through June 8. Los Angeles 'limped' into Miami 37-44, 16 games behind Houston on Tuesday and well on its way to missing the postseason for the 12th time in 13 years. Miami welcomed the Angels to town on a FIVE-game winning (just swept the Nats in a four-games series) and with a 38-40 record. 

Miami made it SIX straight wins last night, beating LA 2-1 behind Sandy Alcantara, who is having a 'Cy Young-like' season (9-3 / 1.82 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / .190 BAA). This brief two-game IL series wraps up Wednesday with Shohei Ohtani (7-4, 2.68 ERA) getting the start for LA against Miami's Trevor Rogers (4-6, 5.56 ERA). The Angels are a mess (37-45, 17 games behind the Astros) but Ohtani is an imposing presence on the mound. He has 101 strikeouts and 17 walks in 74 innings, a nine-inning average of 12.28 strikeouts and 2.07 walks. Opponents are batting just .209 against him and this marks his first appearance in Miami. Marlins manager Don Mattingly opined about Ohtani saying this, "Not only just (to pitch and hit), but to do it really well. You can look at him as a Cy Young-type guy, and you can also look at him as an MVP. That's both sides of this thing. That's pretty amazing."

The Marlins won't have Alcantara on the mound but rather Trevor Rogers, who is trying to get his season on track. Rogers was Miami's first-round draft pick in 2017 and went 7-8 in 25 starts in 2021. However, he posted a 2.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (157-65 KW ratio) and opponents batted only .218 against him. Those numbers were good enough for him to finish second in the voting for National League Rookie of the Year. As for 2022, it's been a struggle for Rogers, who has just ONE quality start in 15 tries. His ERA is up to 5.56, his WHIP to 1.59 and opponents are hitting .274 against him.

I'll give last year's MVP a shot here, although the price is high. Small play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 2:10 ET.

The Minnesota Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games over Cleveland. The two AL Central rivals opened an important three-game series July 4th in Chicago and the Twins have won both contests, 6-3 (10 inn.) and 8-2. The 47-37 Twins have gained two games in the division on the 37-41 White Sox and now go for the three-game road sweep, leading the defending division champions by 6 1/2-games (Minnesota leads Cleveland by 4 1/2-games).

Taking the mound for the series finale will be Minnesota's Joe Ryan (6-3, 3.00 ERA) and Chicago's Lance Lynn (1-1, 4.50 ERA). Ryan made just five starts in 2021, going 2-1, posting a 4.05 ERA but an impressive 0.79 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .168 BAA. He's pitched well this season, even though he spent about three weeks on the COVID-19 injured list from late-May to mid-June. The Twins are 8-4 in his 12 starts and his WHIP is again low (1.05) and opponents are still struggling at the plate against him (.208 BAA). Ryan hasn't faced the White Sox in any of his 17 career starts.

Lynn was 11-6, 2.69 ERA in 2021, finishing third in the AL's Cy Young voting. Lynn has been a 'workhorse' these last few seasons and has had top-6 finishes in the Cy Young voting for THREE consecutive years! Lynn was sidelined all with a right knee injury and didn't make his 2022 debut until June 13. Lynn is coming off his best start among his four this season, when he took a no-decision last Friday after pitching three-hit ball over six shutout innings in San Francisco. "It's coming back," said Lynn. "The first couple of starts, I threw the ball well at times and then had some bad luck, and that's going to happen. But I think once you get in the flow of what you're doing and your pitches and things like that, then everything starts rolling a little bit differently."

The White Sox haven't been .500 since they were 22-22 back on May 26 and BADLY need to salvage the final game of a series they needed to win. Lynn is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five career starts against Minnesota, with 24 strikeouts in 29 innings. I'm backing the veteran Lynn in this near must-win game.

Good luck...Larry