Larry Ness

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:15 ET.

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 4:10 ET.

'Sevens were wild" for the Miami Marlins as they not only entered Friday with the worst record in MLB but they had lost SEVEN straight games overall and SEVEN in a row to the New York Mets. However, after being shut out in back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday by in-state rival Tampa Bay, the Marlins pounded reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom for seven runs (in just five innings) in Friday's 8-6 victory. It was just the Marlins 11th win in 42 games this season. Pete Alonso hit a pair of HRs for the Mets but it wasn't enough to prevent the Mets from losing for the first time in SIX matchups against Miami this year.

Today's pitching matchup features Steven Matz (3-2, 3.86 ERA) for New York and Pablo Lopez (2-5, 5.93 ERA) for Miami. Matz returns to the rotation following a two-week stint on the injured list (radial nerve discomfort) and will make his second start of the year in Miami. He gave up three runs (one earned) over 5.1 innings in a no-decision on April 1 (Mets won, 7-3). Matz is 3-2  with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs Miami (team is 6-3). Lopez is back on the mound after the worst start of his career last week in New York, when the Mets shelled him for 10 runs and 10 hits (including three HRs) over a season-low three innings.  I will note that he had recorded a pair of superb outings in his previous three starts, blanking Atlanta on three hits over six innings on May 5 and permitting just an unearned run over 6.1 innings at Cleveland on April 23.

Lopez CAN'T be as bad again but as noted above, Matz has a good history against Miami. What's more, except for an 'ugly' outing at Philadelphia on April 16 in which he failed to record an out (was charged with EIGHT runs in a 14-3 loss), he has been New York's most consistent pitcher, allowing three runs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Mets are 5-1 in those six starts). If there isn't enough already to go against Miami, I'll add that the Marlins are just 2-7 when facing a lefty in 2019, averaging only 3.2 RPG, after going 12-26 vs lefties in 2018.

Good luck...Larry

My 1* Free Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10:10 EST).

Minnesota has won three straight. The Twins already have three four-game win streaks this season, so they’re after No. 4 tonight.

And with “ace” Jose Berrios taking the hill vs. Wade LeBlanc, they have to be feeling pretty confident that they can do it.

Berrios (6-2, 3.05 ERA) will be focused here as he was lit up for five runs and a career-high 12 hits over five innings in a loss to the Angels on Monday. Despite that hiccup, Berrios has pitched into the sixth inning in every other game he’s been in this season and note that he owns a very respectable 2.45 ERA in his lone start in the Pacific Northwest. 

LeBlanc (2-0, 4.50) is going to have his hands full here vs. a Twins team which hit four home runs in last night’s 11-6 series opening victory. 

This is a great spot for Berrios to bounce back in and the price is right too. Consider Minnesota on Saturday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET.

The defending champion Red Sox limped out of the gate but have begun to play well. However, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees capitalized on Boston's early struggles and found themselves in a battle for the AL East's top spot with the opening of a three-game series in the Bronx this weekend. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season but entered Friday 26-15, just a half-game up on New York. The Yankees have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), climbed back into the race at 26-16 by going 20-7 since April 16. In Friday's contest, New York entered the ninth inning down 3-1, before rallying for three runs off Tampa Bay closer Jose Alvarado. The Yankees are now winners of nine of their last 11 and jumped a half-game ahead of the Rays at 27-16 (Rays are 26-16).

Blake Snell (3-4, 3.56 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay on Saturday afternoon, opposed by New York's Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.44 ERA). The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner struck out 12 in just 5.2 innings against New York at home last Sunday but suffered the loss in a game Tampa Bay dropped 7-1 (he allowed just two runs on four hits). Snell has been a hard-luck pitcher this season, as he's received a total of SIX runs of support in his four losses. Tanaka won opposite Snell last Sunday, scattering one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out seven. He is 9-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 15 career starts against the Rays (Yanks are 11-4) but I have to go with Snell in this quick "re-hook."

Snell may be just 3-4 (team is 3-5 in his eight starts) but as noted above, he's gotten almost NO support when losing. That doesn't figure to happen all year. A closer look at Snell's 2019 performance reveals a 62-11 KW ratio in 43 innings, an 0.98 WHIP and a .203 BAA. Snell and the Rays are the play..

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET.

The Golden State Warriors have gone up 2-0 in their series with the Blazers, despite the absence of K.D. (Durant was averaging a NBA postseason-high of 34.2 PPG). The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night, but we brought enough competitive fire in the second half to overcome their great play. We've been here before. I think our experience helped us. We've done this a few times, and yeah, we stole it for sure. They outplayed us." As for Portland, the Blazers head home with some confidence due to the way they played for most of Game 2. "You know, you hate to lose a game, but I think we showed that we can compete with them," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "It was a much better game than we played in Game 1. Now we've got to go get two at home, but it starts with Game 3. But yeah, we beat them in the regular season, and we did play a good game, much better game at both ends of the floor tonight. So, we've got to take that into Game 3."

This series was billed as a battle between the NBA's two-best backcourt duos. After two games, Curry and Thompson have 'KO'd' Lillard and McCollum. The Warriors' dynamic duo has combined to average 56.5 PPG, while the Blazers' twosome is averaging just 40.5 PPG. Curry has averaged 35.3 PPG in the three games KD has missed, with Thompson chipping in 25.7. Since Game 6 of the LAC series, Draymond Green is averaging 13.7-10.7-7.9. Maybe the Warriors can "win it all," without KD?

Lillard came into the series averaging 28.4 PPG in the 2019 playoffs and McCollum came in averaging 26.6. A return home HAS to help. Here's the bottom line. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4  to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-1 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-3 SU run on their home floor. "Home is where the heart is" (right?) and expect Lillard and McCollum to respond plus don't ignore the fact that Seth Curry matched his postseason high with 16 points off the bench in Game 2 and that Rodney Hood is averaging 14.5 points off the bench in the series. If not NOW, WHEN for Portland?

Good luck...Larry