Larry Ness

My 8* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Was Nats at 7:20 ET.

Atlanta had won 34 of 50 games to move 20 games above .500 for the first time this season at 57-37, as it opened a three-game series this past Monday in Milwaukee against the Brewers. Atlanta won 4-2 in the series opener but then lost 13-1 on Tuesday and 5-4 on Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, Washington mustered just five hits in a 9-2 loss on Wednesday at Baltimore, splitting a two-game series with its regional rival. The two NL East rivals open a four-game series tonight in Atlanta as two of the hottest teams in MLB the last two months. The 58-39 Braves hold a 6 1/2-game lead over the 50-44 Nationals entering the series and are 40-19 since May 10. However, the Nationals have refused to wilt by winning 25 of 36 contests since June 1 to stay within striking distance (Nats have SEVEN games left against Atlanta in July).

Stephen Strasburg (11-4, 3.46 ERA) will get the nod for Washington, opposed by Atlanta's Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.71 ERA). Strasburg enters this contest 7-1 over his last eight starts, posting a 3.75 ERA and a .237 opponents batting average (he has 57 Ks in 50.1 innings). That stretch started with an 11-strikeout performance across seven innings in a 5-4 win against the Braves on May 28, and he also beat Atlanta on June 21, giving up three runs in six innings of a 4-3 win. Teheran suffered 'ugly' back-to-back losses on June 18th (10-2) and 24th (8-3), lasting only four innings in each outing, allowing 13 ERs. He then lasted just 3.1 innings of a no-decision in his final start of June (6/29). However, he's opened July with two strong starts, allowing just two ERs across 12 innings with 12 strikeouts in a pair of no-decisions (Braves are 2-0).

Strasburg will be making his 33rd career start against the Braves (he's only started more often against Miami, with 34). He's 13-11 with a 4.03 ERA against Atlanta in 32 previous starts (Nats are 16-16). As for Teheran, he will be making his 22nd career start against Washington. He is 6-6 with a 4.13 ERA against the Nationals (Braves are 11-12), so neither pitcher has distinguished himself against their respective opponents. As noted above, BOTH teams are 'hot' but the edge goes to Starsburg and his "current form."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 9:40 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers 'limped' into the All-Star break on an 8-15 slide and opened the second half of the season by losing TWO of three at San Francisco. The Brewers welcomed the Atlanta Braves to Miller Park for a three-game series that began last Monday. The series was a rematch of a three-game set played in Atlanta from May 17-19. The Brewers were 27-19 when that series started and the Braves were 23-12. However, as the teams got set to meet again in mid-July, they were headed in opposite directions. The Braves took TWO of three at home in May and used that series victory to jump-start a stretch in which Atlanta had won 34 of 50 games to move 20 games above .500 for the first time this season at 57-37 (Braves led the NL East by seven games!). Meanwhile, the Brewers had gone just 21-27 over that same time frame and at 48-46, were out of the playoffs if they started on Monday.

The Brewers lost 4-2 to the Braves on Monday but then rebounded to win 13-1 and 5-4. Milwaukee had lost EIGHT of 10 games before winning the final two against the Braves to capture the series. The 50-47 Brewers now visit Arizona for a four-game series with the D'backs. Arizona returns home off a two-game sweep of the Rangers in Texas, beating 12-game winner Lance Lynn 9-2 on Tuesday and then winning 19-4 on Wednesday, tying a franchise record for a nine-inning game with 21 hits. The D'backs have won SIX of eight and at 49-47, are in a virtual three-way tie with StL and Philly, a half-game back of the Brewers for the NL's second wild card spot.

Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee, opposed by Arizona rookie, Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93 ERA). The 26-year-old Davies opened 2019 at 7-0 (2.41 ERA) through 13 starts (Brewers were 9-4), but then suffered a 5-3 loss at San Francisco on June 14. That outing began a three-start stretch in which he went 0-2 (team was 0-3), allowing 12 ERs on 21 hits over just 11.2 innings (9.26 ERA). However, Davies turned in another strong outing last Saturday but received his THIRD straight no-decision, despite allowing one unearned run on two hits over six innings against San Francisco. Yes, he's not earned a win in his last three outings but the Brewers are 3-0. No kidding! He owns an 0.55 ERA with just one ER and one extra-base hit allowed over his last three starts covering 16.1 innings. In contrast, Kelly (a 30-year-old rookie) lost his THIRD straight decision last Saturday, giving up four runs (just one earned) with five strikeouts over five innings against St Louis. Kelly's gone FIVE starts without a win (team is 1-4), last earning a victory back on June 12.

Tough spot here for Arizona, which comes off a 19-run, 21-hit effort. Davies is "at the top of his game" and rookie Kelly is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time to pick up a win for the first time FIVE weeks!

Good luck...Larry