Larry Ness

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (7:05 EST).

Minnesota looks to bounce back here after falling 8-6 in Tampa yesterday. New York comes in off a 5-1 win over Toronto.

I think that Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 3.38 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Odorizzi comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off six hits with six K’s and a a walk over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday. It was his worst start thus far for his new club, but there’s no reason not to think that he won’t bounce back here (note that Odorizzi was 5-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road last season.) 

The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 6.45) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the light-hitting Marlins on Tuesday. 

Tanaka has been rocked for 12 earned runs over his last ten innings of work. 

Note that Minnesota is already 5-3 (+3.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in the same position.

Despite coming off his worst performance of the year, I’m still giving Odorizzi the big nod in this matchup. Tanaka is clearly struggling and that doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous Twins line-up. 

With Odorizzi out duelling his counterpart, the value absolutely swings to the dog in this situation.

Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:30 EST).

Washington won Game 5 by a score of 4-3 in OT to snag a 3-2 series lead. Columbus will be risking life and limb to force a Game 7 and in this case, I don’t think that home ice can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The Capitals are 23-20 on the road this year and they’ve averaged 2.95 goals and conceded 3.21 in this contests. Goaltender Braden Holtby is now 3-1 with a 1.67 GAA in this series. Holtby hasn’t been on his best on the road this season though, going 12-11 with a 3.90 GAA.

The Blue Jackets are 26-17 at home, averaging 2.70 goals and conceding 2.42 in those contests. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-3 with a 2.85 GAA in this series. Overall he’d go 20-13 with a 2.18 GAA at home this season though and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here.

Washington would love nothing more than to close this series out, but Columbus has proven to be an elite team at home all season. I simply can’t see the Capitals getting the job done tonight.

Washington has won three straight, but winning can lead to complacency. And desperation leads to motivation for Columbus. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.”

Play on the Blue Jackets.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Bruins/Leafs (7:00 EST).

Toronto hung on for a 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done on home ice as well and push this series to a conclusive Game 7. I’m also expecting these competent goalkeepers to be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries.

Boston had a 3-1 series lead, but it failed to the job done last time out. David Backes would score his second of the series in a losing cause. 

The Bruins are 23-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.60 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 13 shots in Game 5 before getting yanked. Rask is 13-10 with a 2.51 GAA on the road this year.

The Leafs are 30-13 at home, averaging 3.30 goals and conceding 2.65 in those contests. Frederik Andersen stopped 42 of 45 shots that he faced to improve to 2-2 with a 3.86 GAA so far in this playoffs. Andersen has to be feeling confident here though as he’d finish 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 24 this year after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is set at 6 or higher.

With so much on the line for each side and with neither wanting to make any major mistakes, everything points to a classic goaltenders battle in Game 6. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST).

Toronto hung on for a 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done on home ice as well and push this series to a conclusive Game 7. 

Boston had a 3-1 series lead, but it failed to the job done last time out. David Backes would score his second of the series in a losing cause. 

The Bruins are 23-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.60 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 13 shots in Game 5 before getting yanked. Rask is 13-10 with a 2.51 GAA on the road this year.

The Leafs are 30-13 at home, averaging 3.30 goals and conceding 2.65 in those contests. Frederik Andersen stopped 42 of 45 shots that he faced to improve to 2-2 with a 3.86 GAA so far in this playoffs. Andersen has to be feeling confident here though as he’d finish 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. 

Also note that Boston is just 1-5 in its last six on the road, while Toronto is 17-5 in its last 22 when playing on one days rest and 5-1 in its last six home games against a club with a winning road record.

The Leafs have won five of the last six at home in this series and with so much on the line, I’m expecting that strong trend to continue here. Pack your backs for Game 7!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (10:35 EST).

Oklahoma City is on the ropes, as a loss tonight would make it 3-1 for Utah. The Thunder will be leaving everything they have on the floor though and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last.

The Thunder had only 49 points in the second half of Game 3’s 115-102 setback. OKC shot 47.4 percent from the floor and it was 14 of 28 from range, but it still wasn’t enough. Paul George was a bright spot with 23 points. Star Russell Westbrook was a no-show for a second-straight game, so he’ll clearly be extra motivated this evening.

OKC averages 107.9 PPG and it concedes 104.4. 

Utah averages 104.1 PPG and it concedes 99.8. The Jazz shot an unreal 52.5 percent in Game 3 and won the rebound battle 48-33. Ricky Rubio had a huge night with 26 points, 11 boards and ten assists. Rookie Donovan Mitchell continued his strong campaign with 22 points. 

The Thunder have struggled for bettors overall this year, but OKC has done decently as the underdog this season (10-7 ATS). The Jazz on the other hand are still just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest. 

I can’t see Westbrook laying an egg three games in a row. I also have a hard time seeing Rubio matching his epic Game 2 performance (think Dwayne Wade last week, laying a complete egg in Game 3 after his legendary Game 2 victory over the 76ers in Philadelphia.) 

OKC has had success from range and combined with the massive sense of desperation it’ll be playing with, everything does indeed point to the comfortable cover.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry