Kyle Hunter

*4 Star NCAA BB ATS Play of Day* The Eastern Michigan Eagles started out the season ice cold when it came to covering the spread, but they played a brutal schedule. Eastern Michigan has played the 5th toughest schedule in the country this year (according to KenPom). That is amazing for a MAC team this far into the season. Eastern Michigan has still only covered 30% of their games this year.

Bowling Green has played the 280th toughest schedule in the country. The Falcons have covered 71% of their games so far this year. Bowling Green is riding high into this game, but they haven't been tested.

Eastern Michigan lost both meetings to Bowling Green last year. They blew a lead in both games and lost both games in overtime. The Eagles have to be extremely hungry to try to get some revenge here. 

This fits a system of poor ATS teams vs. great ATS teams this late in the season that has been a 59.2% ATS system in the last 14 years. 

Take Eastern Michigan. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers travel to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. Auburn is coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky. Bruce Pearl is a 7.5 point favorite here. 

Auburn is quite a bit more efficient on offense so far this year than they were a year ago. Auburn ranks 10th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Last year, they ranked 26th in this statistic. 

South Carolina ranked 161st in offensive efficiency last year, but they are up to #137 this year. Even more importantly, South Carolina was 153rd in tempo last year, but they have been the 24th fastest paced team in the country this year. 

Auburn's transition offense is much more efficient this year according to Synergy Sports. They rank in the 78th percentile in transition offense efficiency in the country. Last year, they ranked in the bottom half of the country in that statistic. That's especially important since South Carolina's transition defense was their biggest strength last year, but now it is their biggest weakness on defense. They rank in the bottom 18 percent of teams in transition defense this season.

Both teams get to the line a lot, and both teams get a bunch of offensive rebounds here as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos rank 242nd in the nation in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Ohio ranks 317th in the nation in offensive efficiency. These are two very inefficient offenses. 

Western Michigan is playing a little quicker than they did a year ago, but they are better on defense and worse on offense.

Ohio is much worse on offense, and they are playing significantly slower. The Bobcats are using 18.9 seconds on each offensive possession on average (16.6 last year) in league play. 

Both of these offenses have struggled badly with turnovers on the offensive end. They are having far too many trips where they don't even get a shot up. 

Western Michigan has seen 8 of their last 14 stay under this total. Ohio has seen 4 of their first 5 MAC games finish regulation at 127 points or lower. 

Ohio is great on the defensive glass, and both teams have been good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Notre Dame* Georgia Tech was absolutely demolished by Louisville in their last game. Was that just a fluke or was something going on there? Georgia Tech played without star guard Jose Alvarado, and I think that hurts them significantly. 

Josh Pastner said Alvarado is doubtful for this one, and he didn't practice on Monday. I'd be surprised if he plays in this one. The Yellow Jackets aren't even close to the same team without him on the floor. He's their floor general. Brandon Alston and Abdoulaye Gueye are also questionable and they are key contributors. 

Notre Dame played a good game at North Carolina, and they beat Purdue on a neutral floor earlier this year.

With Georgia Tech shorthanded, I like the Fighting Irish here.

Take Notre Dame.