Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on UConn* The UConn Huskies blasted FIU 51-10 two weeks ago. They then got a bye week to prepare for this game. Boston College got blasted at Clemson last week. The Eagles are trending hard in the wrong direction. 

UConn had Syracuse beat on the road earlier this year, and let them get away with an overtime win. UConn also lost in overtime at Delaware. The Huskies have talked about working hard to finish the deal this week.

This is one of those little brother vs. big brother type of games. UConn feels disrespected, and they get a chance to upset the ACC bigger name college football program.

Boston College has no identity on offense. They can't decide on a quarterback, and the run game is 124th in the nation in YPC. They are 127th in offensive line yards. 

UConn's Fagnano has been excellent in the passing game, and the Huskies are first in the nation in passing explosiveness. UConn is 31st in the nation in points per scoring opportunity and Boston College is 123rd in points per scoring opportunity allowed. UConn should be finishing drives here. Boston College offensively is just 106th in points per scoring opportunity. 

UConn is 16th in penalties per game and Boston College is 65th.

Take UConn. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have a star quarterback in Czarka. He runs the triple option offense extremely well, and he is a much better passer than they have had in recent seasons. Air Force put up 603 yards of total offense against UNLV last week. Air Force is first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. They are converting red zone trips into touchdowns. 

Defensively, Air Force is a complete mess. They have allowed a whopping 11 plays of 50 yards or more, and no one in the country is giving up more explosive plays. The Falcons just don't have enough speed on defense. Wyoming just had their best offensive showing last week against San Jose State, and this defense is even worse.

Wyoming is 100th in defensive line yards and 106th in yards per carry. Air Force will run all over Wyoming.

Air Force games have continually gone over the total, and most haven't even been close. I'll go to the high side again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd offense has been better than expected this year. Marshall's Carlos Del-Rio Wilson has 11 TD's and zero interceptions on the year. Marshall has scored 38 points or more in four straight games.

Texas State is 33rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats just allowed a very mediocre backup quarterback in Tucker Kilcrease from Troy to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Texas State is 122nd in the nation in explosiveness allowed. Combine that with the fact that they are one of the worst red zone defenses in the country and you get a really poor defense that gives up a load of points. 

Texas State offensively is 32nd in yards per attempt on offense, and Marshall is 118th in yards per passing attempt allowed. The Bobcats offensive line has been good, and the Thundering Herd have relied on havoc to even slow down opposing offenses.

Two teams who are both in the bottom 15 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Three straight games of Marshall have gone to at least 70 total points.

Three of Texas State's games have finished with 79 points or more. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 126th and 132nd in yards per play offensively. Akron had one good offensive game against Central Michigan, but in general they have been terrible. The Zips are 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 125th in yards per passing attempt. 

Ball State averaged 1.8 yards per play on offense last game against Western Michigan. They'll be better than that here against Akron, but the Cardinals have major offensive issues too. They are 131st in success rate on offense.

Neither of these defenses are very good overall, but they have both been pretty good in the red zone. The two offenses are terrible in the red zone as well.

As a potential bonus the long range weather calls for winds in the 20 mph range with a chance for a shower here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here.