Kyle Hunter

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the New Haven Chargers on Saturday afternoon. This is the type of game I bet often in college basketball often, but it is also one where I'm going to take a wager in college football this time around.

The weather report is the reason here. North Andover's forecast calls for heavy rains on Saturday from the Noreaster. The winds will be heavy as well. More than an inch of rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of 22 mph and gusts to 45 mph. These are really nasty conditions where it should be tough to play the game in any normal sort of game plan.

Both of these teams have already had several low scoring games this year, and this one should stay lower because of the elements.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 42.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks are top 20 in pace of play. Briles and this system are always going to try to push the issue. 

Alabama's pass defense has disappointed so far this year. The Crimson Tide are 121st in yards per pass attempt allowed and 132nd nationally in passing explosiveness allowed. LaNorris Sellers is inconsistent and so are his wide receivers, but they should have some chances for big gainers at times here. 

Russell has had a nice start to his career at Alabama. He'll go up against a South Carolina defense that is 120th in PPA/pass allowed. They are also 104th in havoc created. Alabama has been excellent in points per scoring opportunity (5 points per opportunity) and S Carolina has struggled in red zone defense. Look for the Crimson Tide to cash in on their red zone trips. 

Alabama has scored 45 points or more in each of their contests this season. They might not score quite that many here, but I think it will be a lot. The pace that S Carolina plays at will give them chances too.

Take the over. 

*I would bet this as high as 55.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame offense is going to be very good this year. I think their stats are a bit skewed negatively on offense so far this season. Notre Dame just played against a pretty good Michigan State defense in a bad weather game. It was rainy and windy in that one and that changed the way the game was played. I also think the Wisconsin defense is a good unit and the Fighting Irish played them in week one. They had one easy opponent (Rice) and in that one they put up 42 points in the first half and won 52-0. Rice has no offense, but Notre Dame gashed the Rice defense.

Purdue is clearly much improved on offense. I really like what I've seen out of Ryan Browne. He is making good decisions and the Boilermakers are 12th in the nation in PPA/pass so far this season. 

Notre Dame's offense is second nationally in yards per pass attempt. Purdue is 129th in yards per pass attempt allowed. This Boilermakers defense in general is a huge weakness. They are 131st in explosiveness allowed. I expect Carr and Notre Dame to hit a lot of big plays in this one. 

Last year's game was Notre Dame 56-30 over Purdue. I don't think Purdue will score 30 again here, but this Purdue offense is pretty good. Purdue's defense will be overmatched by the Notre Dame offense.

Take the over. 

*I would play this as high as 59.5. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys offense has been terrible this season. They scored 10 and 13 points on their two FBS opponents. They only scored 21 points against Northern Colorado (FCS). Wyoming is 130th nationally in explosiveness on offense. Wyoming is bottom 30 in the nation in tempo as well.

Hawaii's offense is a mess right now too. Micah Alejado was last seen in a sling. He has been taking all sorts of hard hits this season with a terrible offensive line in front of him. Hawaii is 121st in success rate on offense. They are up against a Wyoming defense that is 35th best nationally in explosiveness allowed.

The wind is pretty heavy in Laramie on a frequent basis this time of the year. The current forecast calls for winds around 18 mph during this game which could make the two teams more conservative and make big plays tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 43. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play on Tulsa* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes go to Arkansas to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Tulsa took out Oklahoma State in week one. That was a chance for them to beat a much bigger named opponent and put their name on the map. Here is another chance for Coach Lamb's team to go up against a bigger name opponent and prove Tulsa is for real.

Arkansas has major problems. The Razorbacks offense struggled for much of the game to get going against North Alabama in week one. Arkansas is 132nd in rushing PPA. They are dead last at 138th in the nation in rushing explosiveness. 

Tulsa has two good options at QB. Baylor Hayes will probably be back, but Williams is a good backup if he isn't. The Golden Hurricane defense is much improved this year too. Tulsa did a great job bothering that Oklahoma State offense. 

Tulsa is 19th nationally in rushing PPA. Arkansas is 132nd in rushing PPA allowed.

I'll grab the points.

Take Tulsa. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers are first in the nation in tempo. Alex Golesh's team is absolutely flying on offense. They put up 39 points on Florida yesterday. The Auburn defense was also torched for 44 points and 6.5 yards per play by Florida.

Auburn's first game against Baylor should have been higher scoring and that has kept their totals down a bit too much in the market.

Vanderbilt is better in the passing game with Curtis at quarterback. The Auburn pass defense is 103rd in PPA/pass allowed. Vanderbilt is 25th in passing explosiveness, and Auburn is 125th in passing explosiveness allowed.

The Auburn dual threat QB Byrum Brown should break some big gainers against a questionable Vanderbilt defense too.

Take the over. 

*I would play this up to 56. Thank you. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are playing completely differently than they have in recent seasons. Arkansas State went from one of the fastest tempos in the nation to a very slow pace. The Red Wolves are 127th out of 138 teams in tempo.

Kennesaw State's offense is far weaker this year with Rickie Collins at quarterback. Kennesaw has lost their explosiveness compared to a year ago. The Owls are unlikely to hit the big plays here, but they should run the ball quite a bit.

Arkansas State wants to run as well. With the clock moving and the two teams typically not breaking big plays I see value on the low side here.

Take the under. 

*I would play this as low as 52. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are 135th in the nation in success rate on offense. Old Dominion is dead last on offense in havoc allowed. The Monarchs get behind the sticks far too often. 

Old Dominion is 15th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Monarchs do have a very strong defense. 

James Madison's offense put up just 20 points on Liberty and 26 on San Diego State. Their offensive stats are skewed by what they did on their FCS opponent (87 points). 

This is a massive game for both teams. They both have aspirations of being the top team in the Sun Belt. I think the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*I would take this as low as 47.5. Thank you*