Johnny Banks

Reds vs Cubs MLB Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Chicago Cubs crossed home plate no fewer than 17 times yesterday. They also hung 19 runs on the Mariners in Seattle last Sunday, and they've scored seven runs or more in four of their last seven games.

Cincinnati righty Chase Burns (14-3, 2.77 ERA) has had a stellar season, but the Giants tagged him with five runs in just 3 2/3 innings last time out. Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.78 ERA) has had his ups and downs, and the wind will reportedly work in our favor, so I expect to see runs at Wrigley Field this Sunday.

The Bet: Over (3%). 

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MAGIC MIKE'S MLB MONEYLINE MA$$ACRE

The Angle(s): Dodgers righty Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 3.02 ERA) takes the mound looking to stay undefeated on the season, bringing pristine command into Comerica Park. Glasnow has been virtually unhit-able when healthy, and the Dodgers have generated a strong 75% win rate in his 8 starts when favored on the moneyline.

The Tigers turn to left-hander Framber Valdez (8-9, 4.35 ERA), who continues to struggle with consistency during an up-and-down summer. Facing a star-studded Los Angeles lineup holding elite metrics against southpaws, Valdez will have little room for error. Furthermore, Detroit has dropped 15 of the 26 games started by Valdez this season.

With the Dodgers pacing the National League West at 81-55 and Detroit languishing below .500 at 63-72, the positional and pitching matchup heavily favors the visiting side. The Dodgers have had a tendency to grind out one-run wins though, which is why we're take the moneyline instead of the runline. 

The Bet: Dodgers (3%). 

Padres/Rays MLB Total

The Angle(s): Padres lefty Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.21 ERA) has allowed 3, 4, and 3 runs in his last three meetings with Tampa Bay, a lineup that has consistently hit left-handers hard all season. The Rays turn to right-hander Drew Rasmussen (12-5, 2.78 ERA), who has been truly elite this season and makes his first career start against San Diego. 

With the Rays 18-12 (60%) to the over as favorites laying -150 or more, and 14-10 (58%) to the over with Rasmussen on the mound, I also like the over and Rays to win in a blowout. 

The Bet: Over (3%). 

4% MLB RUNLINE TOP PLAY of the Day

The Angle(s): Padres lefty Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.21 ERA) has allowed 3, 4, and 3 runs in his last three meetings with Tampa Bay, a team that has consistently hit left-handers hard all season, 24-13 record, +21% ROI against the moneyline.

The Rays turn to right-hander Drew Rasmussen (12-5, 2.78 ERA), who has been truly elite this season and makes his first career start against San Diego.

The Bet: Rays -1½ (4%).