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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets vs White Sox | White Sox +1½ +120 | Top Premium | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
No. 14 Clemson vs No. 1 Georgia
Noon ET, August 31, 2024 | ABC/ESPN+
10-Unit Bet on Georgia priced at 12-point favorites.
3-Unit Pizza-Money bet Under Clemson’s team total
Consider betting 70% of your 10-Unit bet on Georgia preflop and then look to add 15% on Georgia at –10.5 points and 15% more on Georgia at –7.5 points.
I have learned and profited from this week 1 matchups involving two ranked teams over the years and now this one looks quite string. Remember to bet with your head and not over it. These 10-Unit 5% Max Bets have lost 33% ATS of the time over the past five football seasons. No one knows if the bet is going to win on any given day – confident bets are different than being Nostradamus – but I rely on the fact that they have hit at great winning percentages over 5+ seasons and that by the end of the season we have reason to believe that significant profits will be made again.
In week 1 of the regular season and with both teams playing their first game, both are ranked in the AP preseason poll and the difference between these ranks is between 1 and 19, the higher ranked team has gone 28-19 ATS for 60% winners. So, Georgia is ranked #1 and Clemson #14 for a difference of 13.
In week 1 and 2 matchups of ranked teams, the favorites priced between –3 and –17.5 points that are playing at home or on a neutral field have gone 37-22-1 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 20 seasons; in Week 1 action they have gone 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets.
From the Predictive Model
We are expecting Georgia to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than Clemson. In past games played at home or on a neutral field Georgia is 25-0 SU and 19-5-1 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers spanning the past three seasons. Since the arrival of Kirby Smart, Georgia is 52-2 SU and 38-15-1 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2016 when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers.
Clemson is an anemic 1-6 and 0-7 ATS in games played on the road or a neutral field where they allowed 28 or more points and had the same of more turnovers than the foe spanning the past three seasons. Under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are just 14-24 SU and 9-29 ATS for 24% winners when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers since 2008.
The predictive model grades this a 10-Unit 5% Max bet with an 84% probability that the performance measures identified above will occur in the game.
Coach Smart is in his ninth season and is 94-16 SU and 70-43 ATS and this has been accomplished in the SEC Conference. In a somewhat rare situation, he returns 7 starters on both offense and defense and had the top-ranked recruiting class. This is rare because over the last two seasons, he has sent 25 players to the NFL. However, this season he has his returning starting quarterback Carson Beck, who is coming off a 13-1 campaign and a Archie Maning award finalist. He led the Bulldogs to a 5-1 SUATS record when facing Top-25 opponents. Since Smart’s arrival, Georgia has gone 28-10 and 27-11 ATS for 71% winning bets when facing a ranked foe either at home or on a neutral field.
Good Luck to Us and remember always bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.
Wyoming vs Arizona State
8-Unit bet on the Wyoming Cowboys getting 6.5 points.
The following NCAAF betting algorithm has produced a 92-49-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:
The game is played in the regular season.
The difference between the money bet (handle) and the percentage of tickets is between 11 and 65%.
The line movement from opening to closing price is between –0.5 and –9.5 points.
The team is the visitor.
The spread percentage is between 24 and 40%.
So, we have a situation in the markets where the percentage of money bet less the percentage of tickets bet shows that the handle percentage is 11 to 65% more than the tickets percentage. The difference from opening to closing price has worked against the team we are betting on. Currently the line has moved only a half point from +7 to +6.5 points and only 33% of the tickets but 62% of the money is on the Cowboys.