One of my favorite angles in this matchup is simple: location. Kansas City has won eight straight games heading into Toronto, but six of those victories have come at home. The Royals just finished an impressive 7-0 homestand. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they now have to take that success on the road, where they have been abysmal. The Royals have a 22-44 record away from Kauffman Stadium this season.

The starting pitching matchup helps Toronto more than Seth Lugo’s impressive name recognition may indicate. He enters this game with a 5-7 record and 4.71 ERA. Those numbers jump considerably against right-handed hitters on the road. Lugo has a 5.63 ERA in 12 road starts this season, surrendering 76 hits and 40 earned runs in just 64 innings pitched. He has also been awful over his last 15 starts, pitching to a 5.24 ERA. That spells opportunity for a Toronto lineup that should be able to manufacture runs with enough contact instead of exclusively relying on the home run.

Digging a little deeper, Lugo hasn’t exactly been sharp in August. He allowed five runs in five innings against Colorado, three runs against the Cubs and then was trashed by the Angels. Most recently, he allowed five earned runs over six innings against Oakland. This matters because Toronto has big-league hitters who can work pitchers deep into an inning and capitalize when starters like Lugo fall behind in the count.

Toronto also gets Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back in the lineup after serving time on the concussion injured list. Guerrero returned to action on Saturday against the Yankees and went right hit 2- for-5 with a run scored. Throw Guerrero back into a lineup with hitters like Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and Kazuma Okamoto and the Blue Jays have much more depth than they did while Guerrero was out. Toronto flashed what this lineup can do earlier this month when it pounded out 17 hits in a 10-5 victory over Tampa Bay. Each of the team’s starting hitters recorded at least one hit.

Obviously there’s cause for concern with Max Scherzer. His 1-6 record and 7.40 ERA are obviously not numbers you want to blindly bet against, and Tampa Bay cracked Scherzer for seven runs in four innings during his last start. However, there are some reasons to believe that start could end up being more of an outlier than the beginning of another implosion. Scherzer allowed only four earned runs across his previous three starts, posting one run over six innings against St. Louis and one run over five innings against Boston. If Toronto can get something similar out of Scherzer, this pitching matchup becomes very interesting.

I also like Toronto to win after the starting pitching exits. Kansas City’s bullpen has been one of the worst aspects of its game over the course of the full season. The Royals recently optioned Lucas Erceg to the minor leagues after he posted a 6.23 ERA with six blown saves. Kansas City has been struggling to find arms that can fit into dependable late inning roles. The bullpen has actually performed better during Kansas City’s current winning streak, but Toronto can expose that group if it can get Lugo out of the game after five or six innings.

Toronto’s path to victory is pretty cut and dry: get Scherzer through five innings without any major damage, attack Lugo’s horrendous road statistics and force Kansas City to lean on its bullpen. Kansas City has a better team than its season record indicates, but its struggles on the road are enough for me to fade its current winning streak. 

If you’re looking for a high-scoring affair, wait until Wednesday in Kansas City, when the Royals host Toronto’s bullpen. As for Tuesday, I would take Toronto on the money line. Lugo’s 5.63 ERA away from home, Kansas City’s 22-44 road record, Guerrero’s return from IL and the Blue Jays ability to attack Kansas City’s bullpen are four good reasons why I believe Toronto can end Kansas City’s winning streak Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 918. Blue Jays

I’m taking Chicago to win and cover. This matchup favors Chicago because its biggest strength attacks one of Connecticut’s biggest weaknesses. I’m talking about Kamilla Cardoso inside against a Connecticut Sun team that has struggled mightily defending the paint this season.

Cardoso torched the Sun when these teams last played on July 30. She had 26 points on 8-of-12 shooting, including 18 points in the fourth quarter, as Chicago dug out of a 14-point hole to pull off a 94-88 victory. Chicago finished with a 48-42 advantage in points in the paint and scored 25 points off Connecticut turnovers. The Sun will be without Brittney Griner (knee) Tuesday and continue to navigate other frontcourt availability issues, which means Cardoso should once again have opportunities to establish deep position, get fouled and dominate the offensive glass.

Connecticut’s own offensive struggles are another reason I’m leaning toward the favorite. The Sun are just 9-27 entering Tuesday and have lost nine of their last 11 games. They’re coming off a 77-68 defeat at Los Angeles and have had problems scoring consistently in games that settle into the half court. Chicago shouldn’t need an 95-point game to pull away. If the Sky can run it anywhere in the mid-to-upper 80s, Connecticut might struggle to keep up.

Chicago’s 113-90 loss at Indiana on Sunday is ugly, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. The Sky shot just 34% from the floor because Indiana connected on 18 three-pointers. Caitlin Clark finished with 37 points and 10 assists. Connecticut just doesn’t have the perimeter players to take advantage the way Indiana did. Prior to that loss, Chicago won three games in a row, rallying to defeat New York 93-86 and beating Golden State 73-70. Natasha Cloud has given Chicago another scoring threat, pouring a career-high 35 on the Liberty.

Chicago also has a more dependable set of creators. Cloud and Courtney Vandersloot can run the offense, Sydney Taylor gives Chicago another perimeter scoring threat, and Cardoso gives them a clear focal point inside. It’s a nice mix that should allow the Sky to punish a Connecticut defense that can’t afford to send help toward Cardoso every time she catches the ball without allowing Chicago’s guards easy looks.

Connecticut may hang with Chicago early at home, but over four quarters I like Chicago’s size advantage, better options on offense and Connecticut struggles scoring too much to let this one get away.

Jims Play: Chicago Sky  (WNBA Game of the Week)