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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Minnesota has one of the most legitimate underdog avenues on Thursday because there’s not quite as big of a pitching disparity as the moneyline makes it seem. We’re likely looking at Taj Bradley for the Twins against Cole Ragans for Kansas City, and while Ragans is the more established name in this game, he comes into his start with a 9.00 ERA after his season debut while Bradley sports a 2.08 ERA entering his first MLB start. Royals are still sitting at favorites hovering around -155 to -158 which means there’s a lot of Kansas City’s home field and overall game strength baked into their price, but the mound matchup alone gives Minnesota a better chance than what you’re being offered.
Minnesota’s easiest path to pulling the upset starts with Bradley limiting the damage and forcing Kansas City to score one inning at a time. They do not need Bradley to be overpowering, merely to keep pace with Ragans for 5-6 innings to keep this game from turning into another Royals blowout. That’s important because Kansas City was able to bust out for 13 runs on Wednesday, but that output was also a massive outlier against their more tame results to open the series, including holding Oakland to 1 run on Monday for a 3-1 win. Minnesota has the capability to keep this game low-scoring as well, and if Kansas City cools off even just a little bit the game becomes a lot more playable for the dog.
Speaking of cooling off, another angle that works here is the bounce-back opportunity for Minnesota. They’re just 1-4 on the year, but the Twins flashed their ability earlier this week that they still have enough pitching and clutch hitting to win these low-scoring affairs, and they do have some dangerous bats in their lineup that can capitalize if Ragans struggles again. Kansas City may be riding a three-game win streak and has owned Minnesota at home, but trends like that can exaggerate how good a team really is, especially when that favorite is trotting out a starter who needs to bounce back from an ERA-366 start.
We’ve covered how Minnesota can win the game, so let’s talk about the Twins actually winning. The ideal underdog script is pretty simple: Bradley gives Minnesota a solid start, they knock a couple of runs off Ragans early, and slowly work this into a low-scoring game where one late rally or one explosive inning ends up being the difference maker. Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt at home, but with Bradley matching up against Ragans and the price still sitting in that mid-150s range I think Minnesota is live enough to pull off the upset.
Jim's Play: 955. Twins +1.35
Stanford is a good play to win and cover against West Virginia in the Crown Tournament on Thursday because this looks like a matchup where the Cardinal’s offensive ceiling gives them the edge in a game lined close to a single possession. The current market has Stanford favored by about 1 to 1.5 points, so they do not need to dominate to cash, just win a competitive game by one clean late possession. The quarterfinal is set for Thursday, April 2 at 8 p.m. ET in Las Vegas.
The biggest case for Stanford is that its offense is simply more dependable. Stanford averaged 76.0 points per game this season, while West Virginia averaged just 69.2. The ESPN team comparison also shows Stanford scoring nearly seven points more per game, and that matters in a spread this short because the Cardinal have more ways to create separation if the game gets into the 70s. West Virginia has been the better pure defensive team, but when you are laying only around a point, the side with the more proven scoring punch is attractive.
Stanford also has the best go-to scorer on the floor in Ebuka Okorie. He led the Cardinal at 22.8 points per game and 3.5 assists, giving Stanford the kind of shot creator who can settle things down late in the clock and manufacture offense when tournament possessions tighten up. In a near pick’em type game, having the top perimeter creator is often the difference between surviving and getting knocked out, and Stanford has that advantage here.
Another reason to like Stanford is style. The Cardinal shot 35.6% from three and made 9.2 threes per game, while West Virginia has been more limited offensively overall and finished the year as one of the lower-scoring major conference teams. If Stanford gets even an average shooting night from the perimeter, West Virginia may have trouble matching that kind of pace because the Mountaineers have leaned much more on defense than on explosive offense all season.
West Virginia can absolutely keep it close with its defense, but the spread reflects that already. With Stanford favored by only around 1 to 1.5, you are basically asking the Cardinal to be the better late-game execution team, and their stronger scoring profile, better top-end shot maker, and slightly higher offensive versatility make that the more likely outcome. This feels like a game Stanford controls just enough in the second half and should win by at least five points.
Jim's Play: 895. Stanford