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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Home field and momentum give Arizona the foundation to beat San Francisco on Wednesday. The D-backs have been significantly better at Chase Field this season at 14-9 versus just 10-17 for San Francisco on the road. This is enough of a split in games played at home versus on the road to back Arizona in a game this close.
Arizona also holds the emotional momentum after rallying to win Tuesday’s contest. Arizona fell behind 3-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, but bounced back for a 5-3 win on Ketel Marte’s three-run home run. Wins like this tend to linger, especially considering how this one came against the Giants bullpen, who have now lost multiple games in late innings due to bullpen failures.
Pitching matchups are always tough to navigate, and neither starter projects as a strong option in this one. Arizona will send Merrill Kelly to the mound, who has struggled to an ERA of 5.91. That being said, so has Giants starter Tyler Mahle, who owns a record of 1-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. San Francisco has no clear advantage on the mound, and if both starters are as hittable as their stats suggest, I’d rather take the better home team offense with the late-game momentum.
San Francisco will also have some lineup questions to answer heading into the finale. The Giants have been rotating young bats like Bryce Eldridge into the lineup recently in an attempt to get him going, but injuries and constant lineup reshuffling have led to some questions about who will be in the lineup Game 162. Eldridge is expected to get the start in the finale, but San Francisco clearly has some uncertainty with how they want to attack Arizona’s lineup, while Arizona just proved they can hang with San Francisco’s bullpen late.
If Arizona can work Mahle early, drive up counts for Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado and Ildemaro Vargas and then exploit San Francisco’s bullpen, they’ll win this game. Arizona has home field advantage, they just came off a walk-off victory to start the day and they’ll be playing a Giants team that has repeatedly had issues finishing games this year. Diamondbacks all the way.
Jim's Play: 954. Diamondbacks
Pitching and price. Those are the reasons why wagering on the Cincinnati Reds to win Wednesday is appealing against the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia is getting bet down. As big as Cincinnati is getting listed right now, they’re a live dog worth backing not a long-shot reach.
Pitching wins this battle too as the Reds boast the better starting-pitching matchup in Andrew Abbott against Aaron Nola. Cincinnati’s Abbott enters Wednesday at 3-2 with a 4.21 ERA. Philadelphia’s Nola enters at 2-3 with a 5.91 ERA, so not only are the Reds getting the starter with the better overall numbers right now, but Nola has been significantly more hittable this season. The Reds have speed and power in their lineup to make Nola pay if he hangs one, but if they can stay patient, they have a chance to make him work early.
Speaking of working early, Cincinnati also comes into Wednesday riding some momentum after taking Tuesday’s game 4-1 behind a strong outing from Chase Burns. Of course, the bigger story from Tuesday’s game is that Philadelphia’s offense did absolutely nothing after the third inning, going hitless the rest of the way. If Cincinnati can do that again behind Abbott, who has shown the ability to limit extra-base hits thus far in 2023, they have a chance to win another one.
The way to beat Philadelphia on Wednesday is to stay within striking distance after five innings, jam Aaron Nola when they’re ahead, and create pressure with their athleticism. Cincinnati does not have to win a homer-until-you-win contest with Philadelphia. If they take an early lead and force Philly to chase, that price on the underdog becomes very intriguing indeed.
Jim's Play: 951. Reds