The American League Championship Series returns to Toronto for a Game 6. The Seattle Mariners lead the series 3–2 and are one win away from reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history, while the Blue Jays look to extend the series with a home win and force a Game 7. Loaded with two of the best lineups in baseball, iffy starting pitching, and postseason stakes at their highest, there are a lot of reasons this game could finish over the total tonight.

putting up crooked numbers are a reality both teams have established to some degree already this series. Seattle blasted out five runs in the eighth inning of Game 5 to secure a 6–2 victory, while Toronto showed their power with a 13-4 shellacking of the Mariners early in the series powered by five home runs. The ball has been flying around in the playoffs already and it should continue to do so here given Rogers Centre’s friendly dimensions and with a closed roof aiding run scoring.

Seattle will turn to Logan Gilbert on the mound. The right-hander was on the mound for Seattle’s loss in Game 2, surrendering three earned runs over just three innings. Across his two postseason starts this season, Gilbert has not recorded an out past the fourth inning, and his command of his fastball has been spotty at best. Toronto will counter with rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage on the mound. Yesavage had a 3.21 ERA in his limited regular-season appearances and has the kind of stuff that comes with an elite pedigree, but he has very little playoff experience. He has significant upside here, but it is a pressure situation and with the bullpens on both sides already taxed, it comes with some risk if either starter is unable to go deep into the game.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are led by George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette, three hitters with postseason pedigree who have shown a propensity to perform in big moments. The Mariners have Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez, who clubbed a grand slam to drive in all of Seattle’s runs in Game 5. The lineups on both sides have power and patience, and both are capable of drawing walks or swinging a game with a single swing.

With aggressive bats, more likely to employ the pen early, and every pitch being put under a microscope, the probability of seeing a high-scoring game increases. Even if both starters perform serviceably, we could see both bullpens back into the game late – something we have already seen multiple times this series.

Jim's Play: Over the Total 

Two struggling teams will clash in Cleveland on Sunday as the 1-5 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Both franchises are desperate to stop the bleeding and salvage their seasons, but this game is shaping up to be a gritty, low-scoring affair, especially with extreme weather conditions in the forecast.

The Dolphins come in with major concerns on both sides of the ball. Their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, failing to consistently protect the quarterback or establish a reliable ground game. More troubling, though, is their defense- particularly against the run. Miami currently ranks last in the NFL, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game. That could spell trouble against a Browns team that, despite offensive struggles, excels at running the football and has a punishing offensive line.

Cleveland hasn’t looked much better on offense. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent, and explosive plays have been rare. But their defense - especially their run-stopping front - is a bright spot, giving up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. Defensive end Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front seven should be able to generate pressure and contain Miami’s offense, particularly if the Dolphins are forced into obvious passing situations.

Weather will play a significant role. The forecast calls for heavy rain, 94% precipitation, and wind gusts between 40-60 mph. That will likely eliminate the deep passing game and make field goals treacherous. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both teams, with coaches focused on field position, ball security, and clock control.

These conditions heavily favor Cleveland. Their physical running game and superior defense are built for bad weather. Meanwhile, Miami’s struggles to stop the run and protect the ball become even more problematic in a muddy, windy battle. The Dolphins’ best shot may come from forcing turnovers or getting a special teams boost.

Given all of these factors, expect a sluggish, low-scoring affair. The total is likely to go under, as both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air or finish drives. Vegas has Cleveland favored, and for good reason - they’re better built for ugly football.

Jim's Play: 456. Dolphins/Browns UNDER 

In a key NFC showdown, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Eagles come in with confidence after a strong first half of the season, riding a dominant run game and efficient defense. Minnesota, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, showing flashes of promise but lacking the execution needed to hang with elite opponents.

 It’s a must-win for Minnesota if they want to stay afloat, while the Eagles have been firing on all cylinders in the first half of the season and will feel good about their chances to win it in the North. However, the Vikings have played lights out at home this year, and an upset could be in the cards if they can be physical, take care of the football, and hold an Eagles offense that will likely be conservative on the road.

The outcome of the game will be decided in the trenches. The Eagles O-line has remained one of the best in football and will look to run the ball right at the Vikings to control time of possession. Philadelphia has enough at the skill positions to take what’s given to them, and with Jared Goff out they’re also a solid bet to be well under the projected pass attempts. The Vikings have been leaky in pass protection, and they’ll be tested by a Philadelphia front four that can create pressure without bringing extra defenders. Minnesota’s offense can easily be stalled by that pressure, and if the Vikings fall behind early it could get ugly. They will need to keep the Eagles honest with quick throws, and their defense will have to create opportunities to change the possession in their favor.

 The Eagles will likely grind out clock, go conservative on offense, and be efficient. Minnesota will likely need to be as well to give themselves a chance, though they are capable of a cover on the back end. Both teams can be stopped in the red zone, and long possessions might end in field goals.

Jim's Play: 461. Eagles/Vikes UNDER 

The Denver Broncos (4-2) come into Week 7 with a high-powered defense that is one of the best in the NFL, and an improving offense. The New York Giants (2-4) have a good defense of their own but are still struggling to find identity and rhythm on offense, especially on the road, where they are 0-3. They are visiting Mile High in this Sunday matchup against the Broncos, a team looking to prove it has the ability to compete with any team on any given Sunday. The two teams have a sharp contrast in strengths - Denver has a top-five defense, and the Giants have a growing offense - and their game should be low-scoring with lots of stops and starts.

The Broncos have the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up only 15.8 points per game. The defense has actually been even better over their three-game win streak, allowing only 10.3 points and 181 total yards per game in their last three wins. The Denver offense has been competent but unspectacular, led by QB Bo Nix, who has 1,277 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on around 64.6% passing in six games played. Nix has been flanked by J.K. Dobbins and Laviska Shenault Jr. in the backfield. Dobbins has 442 yards on 90 carries (4.9 Y/A, 4 TD) and Shenault 232 yards on 34 catches (6.8 Y/C).

The Giants are one of the few teams with a rookie running back in Cam Skattebo who has had better production than most vets in the league. Skattebo has recorded five total touchdowns (5), tied for the most among all rookies this season. On the other hand, New York has a record of 2-4, and their offense in particular has been mostly middling to put it lightly. 

Field position and execution in the trenches should dictate which team has more success in the game. The Broncos’ pass rush will be able to create chaos against the Giants’ offensive line, and New York will likely have trouble consistently sustaining drives without big plays. Meanwhile, Denver’s offense hasn’t looked great but has also been capable of moving the ball. The Broncos have done a good job of methodically wearing defenses down over long drives and run games. A final score of under 40.5 points is looking very likely with the game script for this one. This is a game that should come down to winning the line of scrimmage and field position, and both defenses are superior to their opposing offenses. Expect long, plodding drives on both sides and a physical, defense-oriented game.

Jim's Play : 467. Giants/Broncos UNDER 

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings in what should be a physical NFC contest. Both teams bring the brutality in this game, but the Eagles will open as road favorites in what will be another NFC juggernaut. The Vikings may not have built up the reputation just yet, but they have been quietly fixing things on defense. If this game is tough on both lines of scrimmage, which it could be, look for Minnesota to cover the spread if not pull off the outright victory.

Philadelphia continues to be successful through their ground game. As long as the Eagles’ offensive line keeps gashing the line of scrimmage, Philadelphia will play to its strength. Look for the Eagles to try to establish tempo early with their ground game and focus on ball control. However, Minnesota’s front seven is playing hard and they’ve bottled some of the league’s best running backs. If they can get Philadelphia into third-and-long scenarios, the Vikings defense may be able to slow down the pace and stop big plays en route to the locker room.

Minnesota’s offense will be tested in this matchup as they play from behind, though they will have to keep from turning the ball over.The Vikings offense is better at home. Minnesota is more efficient, more disciplined and has more success running its diverse playbook. Look for them to utilize short passing, misdirection and a few deep shots to open up the field for running back Dalvin Cook and their passing game.

The Eagles defense should be able to force Minnesota to settle for field goals on multiple drives, and they may be able to do the same on the opposite side. Both offenses should be able to drive down the field, only to stall and kick a field goal. The game script sets up for the under, even more so if both teams can stop each other in the red zone.

Should be a close game, but I look for the Vikings to emerge in this one. 

Jim's Play: 462. Vikings

Two struggling teams will clash in Cleveland on Sunday as the 1-5 Miami Dolphins visit the 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Both franchises are desperate to stop the bleeding and salvage their seasons, but this game is shaping up to be a gritty, low-scoring affair, especially with extreme weather conditions in the forecast.

The Dolphins come in with major concerns on both sides of the ball. Their offense has sputtered in recent weeks, failing to consistently protect the quarterback or establish a reliable ground game. More troubling, though, is their defense- particularly against the run. Miami currently ranks last in the NFL, allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game. That could spell trouble against a Browns team that, despite offensive struggles, excels at running the football and has a punishing offensive line.

Cleveland hasn’t looked much better on offense. Their quarterback play has been inconsistent, and explosive plays have been rare. But their defense - especially their run-stopping front - is a bright spot, giving up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game. Defensive end Myles Garrett and the Browns’ front seven should be able to generate pressure and contain Miami’s offense, particularly if the Dolphins are forced into obvious passing situations.

Weather will play a significant role. The forecast calls for heavy rain, 94% precipitation, and wind gusts between 40-60 mph. That will likely eliminate the deep passing game and make field goals treacherous. Expect a run-heavy game plan from both teams, with coaches focused on field position, ball security, and clock control.

These conditions heavily favor Cleveland. Their physical running game and superior defense are built for bad weather. Meanwhile, Miami’s struggles to stop the run and protect the ball become even more problematic in a muddy, windy battle. The Dolphins’ best shot may come from forcing turnovers or getting a special teams boost.

Given all of these factors, expect a sluggish, low-scoring affair. The total is likely to go under, as both teams will struggle to move the ball through the air or finish drives. Vegas has Cleveland favored, and for good reason - they’re better built for ugly football. I'll take the Browns here today on the Money Line. 

Jim's Play: 456. Browns Money Line 

NFL fans in the UK get their taste of Sunday morning action in the league, as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars square off in London on October 19, 2025. Both teams have had up and down starts to the year, but the international stage should provide a refreshing reset on a neutral field for two high-flying offenses. The Jaguars have spent more time in London over the last few seasons than any other NFL team, so while the Rams are in foreign territory, Jacksonville has already had to adapt to life overseas. Balance and experience are two keys for Los Angeles that should tip the scales in a close game at Wembley Stadium.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is once again the efficient conductor of his high-powered offense, this season topping out at over 260 passing yards per game and accounting for 10 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions on the year. His chemistry with WR Puka Nacua is among the best in the league and is difficult for defenses to slow down, while running back Kyren Williams has been an effective complement with over 400 rushing yards and five touchdowns of his own through six games.  Note: Nacua is expected to miss Sunday's game with an ankle injury.  They brought over Davante Adams from the Jets and he will likely play an expanded role here on Sunday.  The offensive line that has been a question mark in past years has actually held up relatively well for Los Angeles so far this season, allowing Stafford more time in the pocket to find mismatches downfield. 

Jacksonville has been mostly competitive through the air behind the steady arm of Trevor Lawrence, who’s on pace for over 1,500 passing yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Red zone execution has been an issue at times this year for the Jaguars, however, which has cost them in terms of scoring. RB Travis Etienne Jr. is once again a big play threat for Jacksonville with over 600 yards from scrimmage and the veteran WR duo of Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley provide solid security blankets. The Jaguars’ defense has had its moments this season, particularly in the turnover column, but they have been notably susceptible to the pass at times this season, giving up over 240 yards per game through the air. That’s a luxury Stafford will happily exploit for the Rams and it gives Los Angeles a distinct edge on offense if they can establish a passing rhythm early. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball, but the Rams have the edge with their high-powered passing attack and a few more defensive playmakers. 

I look for a Rams straight up win here on Sunday so I will take them on the Money Line.

Jim's Play: 451. Rams Money Line

Sunday’s international game lands in London as the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars hop over the pond for this week 7 clash. Both squads have competent offenses, but travel, the time-zone shift, and the match-ups should favor a lower-scoring affair. The Jaguars have been to London numerous times in the last several seasons, but the Rams pack a veteran presence in Matthew Stafford who is never as explosive as the home team on the road. Both defenses are trending in the right direction, and fields are usually more sluggish overseas, so let’s take the Under.

Stafford is still effectively piloting the Rams’ offense, having eclipsed 1,500 passing yards and recorded 10 touchdowns, but the team has committed to a balanced attack, using more of running back Kyren Williams to dictate the pace. Davante Adams has recorded over 500 receiving yards, and Puka Nacua has emerged as a reliable second option, but Los Angeles could look to be more ball-control focused and avoid big plays against a Jacksonville secondary that can match up well with most opponents. Note: Nacua is expected to miss Sunday's game with a leg injury. 

Jacksonville will test the Rams’ defense with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr., but the Jaguars have occasionally been wasteful at the end of drives, settling for field goals over touchdowns. Lawrence has close to 1,600 passing yards through eight games, and Etienne is always a play-making threat in space, but the Rams defensive front is well equipped to stuff inside runs. The Jaguars’ defense, anchored by linebacker Foye Oluokun and edge rusher Josh Allen, has also improved over recent weeks, regularly getting opponents into third-and-long and keeping games close.

The offense can take time to find a rhythm, especially after a long trip, but both units can move the ball. Look for longer, more conservative possessions and less emphasis on field position.

Jim's Play: 451. Rams/Jags UNDER