Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New York Yankees +110

It's rare that you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as underdogs. I'll gladly take advantage today as they look to bounce back from their one-run loss to the Phillies yesterday.

Domingo German has been dominant this season for the Yankees. He is 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 11 starts this season. German has done his best work on the road, going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in five starts away from home.

Aaron Nola has been overvalued all season. He is 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 13 starts in 2021. Nola has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Braves and Reds coming in.

German is 10-1 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 on the road with a total of 7 to 8.5 during this stretch. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

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15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Rays OVER 8

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Orioles and Rays with combined scores 9 runs or more four times. That includes 19, 16 and 11-run efforts in three of them.

Michael Wacha is only averaging 4.4 innings per start this season for the Rays, so the Orioles should get to their bullpen early. Bruce Zimmerman is 3-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.572 WHIP in 10 starts for the Orioles, including 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.585 WHIp in five road starts.

Zimmerman allowed 5 runs in 3 innings for a 15.00 ERA in his lone career start against the Rays, which resulted in a 6-10 loss and 16 combined runs. Wacha is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore which both saw 13 combined runs. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. They have now scored 5 runs or more in seven straight games. They take on an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has lost nine straight and is now just 5-32 in their last 37 games overall.

The Angels have the advantage not only at the plate but also on the mound today and should be bigger favorites as a result. Patrick Sandoval has posted a 3.15 ERA in four starts this season for the Angels.

He'll be opposed by John Duplantier, who is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA and 1.799 WHIP in three starts this season for the Diamondbacks. He has already allowed 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings. Take the Angels Sunday.

20* Nets/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on Milwaukee +2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks won Game 3 86-83 despite shooting just 37.8% from the field and 6-of-31 (19.4%) from 3-point range. That was an incredible effort to gut out that win, and it gives them a ton of confidence heading into Game 4.

In fact, the Bucks have shot poorly all series, which is an aberration based on the fact that they were one of the best shooting teams in the NBA during the regular season. They went 8-of-27 (29.6%) from 3 in Game 2 and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in Game 1.

It's safe to say the Bucks are due to shoot to their potential in Game 4. And from a line value perspective, this is a 6-point adjustment from Game 3. They go from being 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 to 2.5-point underdogs in Game 4. There is a ton of value with the Bucks as home underdogs today.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Brooklyn) - after beating the spread by 54 points or more total in their last 10 games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Bucks Sunday.