15* Padres/Dodgers FS1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off here when the San Diego Padres meet the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 1 of this series Saturday. This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving these two offenses.

Dylan Cease just faced the Dodgers on September 25th. He allowed 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings, and the Dodgers will get to him again tonight using that familiarity to their advantage after just seeing him.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has allowed 6 earned runs in 8 innings in his last two starts. Yamamoto has not been able to figure out the Padres, allowing 8 earned runs in 6 innings in two starts against them in 2024. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: California +10.5

I successfully faded Miami last week with Virginia Tech +19.5 in a game the Hokies nearly won outright.  It was the Hurricanes' toughest test of the season to date.  I am going against them again here Saturday in what will now be their toughest game yet as they hit the road to face a very underrated Cal Bears team.

The Bears have a big rest and preparation advantage coming in off a bye week.  I imagine it was a very productive bye week considering they were coming off a tough 14-9 loss at Florida State in a game they had no business losing.  The Bears outgained the Seminoles 410 to 284, or by 126 total yards.

Cal's 21-14 win at Auburn looks very impressive and there was nothing fluky about that victory.  The Bears outgained the Tigers 332 to 286 for the game.  That's the only game Auburn has been outgained in this season as the Tigers let both Oklahoma and Arkansas off the hook with turnovers.  They should be 4-1, and if they were that win by Cal would be getting a lot more attention than it is.

Justin Wilcox is a great defensive coach and will use those two weeks to come up with the proper game plan to slow down Cam Ward and this Miami offense.  The Bears rank 12th in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 287.5 yards per game and 17th at 4.4 yards per play.  Wilcox is 40-25 ATS as an underdog as the head coach of the Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

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15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5

San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis.  He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map.

It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games.

But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week.  They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan.  But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed.  That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week.

In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low.  We will take advantage.  Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season.  They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa.  They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better.

San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points.  All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER.  And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast.  San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5

The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one.  They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet.  I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result.

Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards.  They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah.  They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss.  And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State.

Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent.  After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team.  I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today.

The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game.  They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas.  Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none.

Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed.  West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys.  

They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas.  They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes.  They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5

San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season.  They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller.  They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game.  They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream.

Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game.  They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game.

Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense.  San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up.  Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively.  This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145

The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now.  If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan.  We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night.

I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards.  But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday.  Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards.  

The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night.  They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year.  While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season.

Washington has elite numbers.  The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play.  They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play.  QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.

While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks.  They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense.

The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game.  Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season.  The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them.  Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season.  It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night.  Bet Washington on the Money Line.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5

Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line.  The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up.

Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37.  The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites.  They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play.  They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play.  They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play.

Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year.  They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play.  They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington.  

The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24.  They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck.  The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5

Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now.  The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football.  Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats.

Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play.  The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play.  So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3.  We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week.

It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons.  But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week.  The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie.

It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons.  They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky.  They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama.  They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team.

Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs.  And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good.  The value is too good to pass up here.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5

East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play.  They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps.  It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks.

They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago.  Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory.  Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week.

East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks.

Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5

The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season.  This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years.

Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play.  They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game.  They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago.

Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season.  The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history.  They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play.  This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite.

That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons.  The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare.  And this Wyoming team is hot garbage.  The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU.

Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series.  It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion.  The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5

The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners.  They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game.  That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win.

Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites.  There was nothing fluky about any of those wins.  They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well.

Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt.  QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history.  He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact.

I've been equally impressed with this Army defense.  The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game.  They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday.  Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa.

Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season.  They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks.  After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State.  Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech.  And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas.

I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games.  I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins.  It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game.  You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already?  The answer is no.  This one will get away from them in a hurry.  Bet Army Saturday.