Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 

The Cincinnati Bengals are a disaster.  They are 0-5 this season and giving up 27.2 points per game and 412.2 yards per game.  Their defense can’t stop anybody, and the Baltimore Ravens should be able to hang a big number on them here Sunday.  That will be key in the Ravens covering this double-digit spread. 

The Bengals gave up 514 yards to a Cardinals team last week that had been struggling on offense coming in. They just cannot get healthy on defense as they are missing guys like Shawn Williams and Carlos Dunlap. Offensively, the Bengals are still missing A.J. Green and John Ross, arguably their two best receivers coming into the season.  They also have injuries up front along the offensive line.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game as a result. 

I know the Ravens only beat the Bengals 24-21 at home last year with Lamar Jackson.  But this Bengals team is a lot worse than that version, and this Ravens team is a lot better.  And keep in mind the Ravens rushed for 265 yards on the Bengals last year, so it was a misleading final.  They held the Bengals to just 255 total yards in the win. 

The Ravens have one of the most improved offenses in the league this year.  They are scoring 32.2 points per game and averaging 441 yards per game.  They are still running the ball very well at 192 yards per game and 5.3 per carry, but the improvement has come in the passing game with Jackson.  The Ravens are averaging 249 passing yards per game and 67% completions.  This new balanced attack has been tough for opposing defenses to tame. 

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who give up 6.0 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 vs. excellent rushing teams that average 150 or more rushing yards per game.  Look for the Ravens to name their score in this one and easily cover this double-digit spread.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -3 

The Minnesota Vikings showed some resiliency following their lackluster road loss to the Bears in Week 4.  They bounced back with a 28-10 road win over the New York Giants in a game that wasn’t even that close.  The Vikings outgained the Giants 490 to 211 and really should have won by even more. 

Now, the Vikings return home where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the entire NFL.  No stadium gets louder than Minnesota, and they have dominated in both of their home games this season.  They are 2-0 and outscoring their opponents by 18.0 PPG.  They beat the Falcons 28-12 before crushing the Raiders 34-14. 

Mike Zimmer is 31-12 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Vikings.  He has been even better as a home favorite when he has stepped outside the division.  In fact, the Zimmer is 20-2 SU & 18-2-2 ATS as a home favorite against non-division opponents as the coach of Minnesota. 

The Eagles are getting a little too much love for their 31-6 home win over the hapless New York Jets last week.  Keep in mind this is a team that has lost to the Lions and Falcons this year, and they barely beat the Redskins.  And the injury situation is not a good one for the Eagles.  They are without DT Malik Jackson, DT Timmy Jernigan, WR DeSean Jackson, CB Ronald Darby, CB Avonte Maddox and RB Darren Sproles. 

I think those two losses at defensive tackle in Jackson and Jernigan hurt the Eagles more than anything in this matchup with the Vikings.  Minnesota has a renewed focus on running the football on offense this year.  The Vikings are executing it to perfection as they are rushing for 166 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry this season.  This is easily the best rushing attack that the Eagles have faced yet as they have almost exclusively gone up against pass-heavy teams.  Only one team has tried to run the ball more than 20 times on the Eagles this year. 

The Vikings are 7-0 ATS in home games when the total is 42.5 to 49 over the last 2 seasons.  The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 home games overall.  Carson Wentz will be up against the best defense he has faced this year, and I expect him to struggle.  Take the Vikings Sunday. 

15* Steelers/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh +7 

The Los Angeles Chargers just can’t be this heavily favored at home.  They are 1-2 at home this season with their only win coming over the Colts in overtime.  They were also upset by the Texans and the Broncos at home this year.  They simply have no home-field advantage with a tiny stadium and fair-weather fans. 

The Steelers travel well, and I won’t be surprised if this feels like a home game for them based on what I’ve seen out of the Chargers in the past.  They should not be catching 7 points here, not even with a third-string quarterback after Mason Rudolph was knocked out with a concussion last week. 

I love the story of Steelers’ QB Devlin Hodges.  He was lightly recruited out of high school and chose to stay closer to home and attend Samford.  All he did was go on to becoming the FCS record holder in career passing yards with 14,584, breaking the previous record held by Steve McNair.  Despite that, he wound up going undrafted. 

Hodges kept his poise, and he earned a practice squad spot on the Steelers.  He kept making plays and great throws in practice, and eventually made the 53-man roster to be the backup QB last week.  And he held his own when replacing Rudolph, completing 7-of-9 passes for 68 yards in the OT loss to the Ravens.  It certainly wasn’t his fault they lost that game.  Hodges is a guy that plays with a chip on his shoulder, and now he has a full week of practice to prepare to be the starter. 

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Chargers, which is why they shouldn’t be this heavily favored.  They are without S Derwin James, T Russell Okung, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, K Michael Badgley and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without TE Hunter Henry and DE Melvin Ingram, who are both questionable after missing last week.  These injuries are a big reason why the Chargers are just 2-3 this season.  Their only blowout win by more than 6 points came against the Miami Dolphins, the worst team in the NFL. 

Conversely, the Steelers have only been blown out once, and that was the opener at New England.  Their other three losses all came by 4 points or less, so I think they are undervalued right now because of their 1-4 record when they could easily be 3-2.  The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Chargers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday. 

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

I’ve been so impressed with rookie QB Gardner Minshew of the Jaguars.  He has single-handedly injected life into this Jaguars team following their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.  They have gone 3-1 ATS since Minshew took over.  And in three of his four games, he has led a late drive in the 4th quarter to give his team a chance to win.  All three of those games were on the road, too. 

The Jaguars only lost by 1 at Houston after falling inches short on a 2-point conversion.  They got a late score to beat the Broncos 26-24 outright as underdogs in Denver.  And last week Minshew was chucking it into the end zone in the final seconds of a 27-34 loss at Carolina.  They also beat Tennessee 20-7 in his lone home start in a game that was never in doubt. 

Minshew is completing 67% of his passes for 1,279 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season.  This is a Jaguars offense that just put up 507 total yards on a good Panthers defense last week.  They had 455 yards on the Broncos last week.  I think the last time we’ve seen a Jacksonville offense this explosive was back in the Mark Brunell days.  The threat of Minshew has opened up running lanes for Leonard Fournette as well as the Jaguars have rushed for an average of 209 yards per game the last two weeks. 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Saints.  They are off to a 4-1 start this season despite losing Drew Brees in Week 2.  They have played four straight games against NFC teams, and they are coming off a division win last week over the Bucs.  Now they step out of conference and won’t be nearly as motivated here against the Jaguars. 

The Saints have not put up very good numbers at all in their two road games this year.  They have been outgained by an average of 193 yards per game in their road games against the Rams and Seahawks.  The Jaguars simply need this win more as they sit at 2-3 on the season.  I expect them to get it Sunday done Sunday at home with the help of a Saints team that won’t be as interested. 

Jacksonville is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining six or more yards per play in two consecutive games.  Fans will be excited to see Minshew in action because he hasn’t played at home in nearly a month with their last home game on September 19th.  They’ll have a bigger home-field advantage than normal as a result.  And there’s a good chance Jacksonville gets back CB Jalen Ramsey from injury this week.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.