15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Pelicans OVER 240.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Atlanta Hawks visit the New Orleans Pelicans.  Both teams are loaded with offensive talent and scoring and both are terrible defensive teams.  But the key to that is that both teams play a fast-paced style.

The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace this season.  They are scoring 119.4 points per game and allowing 121.6 points per game this season.  They have allowed 120 or more points in four of their five games while scoring 119 or more in four of their five games as well.

The Hawks rank 7th in pace this season.  They are scoring 119.2 points per game and allowing 114.5 points per game.  They have allowed 120 or more points in four of their six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Spurs OVER 226.5

The Timberwolves had a shift in philosophy this season by trying to be more of a fast-paced, offensive team instead of a grinder defensive team.  The key move to implement that philosophy was trading for La'Melo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets.  He is the ultimate OVER player who pushes the tempo and makes everyone around him better offensively.  But Ball is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

I know the Timberwolves lost Anthony Edwards, but he is probably their best defender right alongside Rudy Gobert.  I think they miss him more on defense.  They have plenty of scoring still with McDaniels, Ball, Shannon Jr., Dosunmu, Kuminga and Hyland.  But most of those are OVER players with great offensive skills sets and suspect defense.

In their two games without Edwards, the Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in both games combining for 233 points with the Warriors and 228 with the Clippers, who are probably the worst offensive team in the NBA right now.  The Timberwolves scored 127 on the Clippers.

This total has been suppressed due to the Spurs going 4-1 under in all games this season thus far.  But their offense has gotten going after two tough, gritty games to start the season against the Thunder and Rockets.  They put up 122 against the Mavs, 130 against the Kings and 117 against the Jazz.  I expect them to push for 130 today, especially since they are rested on two days' rest and will be looking to run with the Timberwolves, who rank 9th in pace this season.  

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Timberwolves and Spurs with 223 or more combined points in all five.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Minnesota/Indiana UNDER 42

The Indiana Hoosiers are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  Their defense is every bit as good as last year, but their offense has taken a big step back.  They have gone 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall finishing with 37 combined points with Nebraska, 34 with Ohio State and 19 with Michigan in a game that was tied 6-6 at the end of regulation.

It was clear in the Michigan game that QB Josh Hoover is not right and playing through injury.  He got hurt late in the Ohio State game and missed some easy throws that cost them the win.  Hoover came back to go 8-of-18 for 81 yards with an interception last week against Michigan.  I don't think he'll be close to 100% this week, either.

Indiana ranks 3rd in scoring defense allowing 12.0 points per game, 8th in total defense allowing 264.8 yards per game and 2nd allowing 4.1 yards per play.  I fully expect the Hoosiers to shut down this suspect Minnesota offense this week, and to salt away the clock in the 2H with their running game just to get out of there with a win.

This is a very poor Minnesota offense and it has shown the last three weeks.  The Gophers managed just 262 yards and 4.0 per play against Michigan, 275 yards and 5.3 per play against a terrible Purdue defense, and 209 yards and 3.4 per play against Iowa.  In Big Ten play alone they are averaging just 18.3 points per game, 268.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.

But this is a very talented Minnesota defense that I think can hold Indiana in check.  The Gophers are allowing 20.1 points per game and 4.9 yards per play while ranking 16th in total defense at 288.7 yards per game.  I don't see Indiana scoring more than 31, and I don't see Minnesota scoring more than 10.  So there is value with the UNDER 42 above the key of 41 this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7264-6338 Run L3337 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $326,800! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $189,810 since January 1st, 2022!

No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L14 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1273-1058 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $114,170! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25!

Jack has delivered a 687-570 Run on all premium plays since February 11th! That includes a 86-43 Run on all top plays rated 20* or higher as well as a 94-60 CFB Run since last season! Now it's time for Jack to release his BIGGEST College Football Card of 2026 Saturday! He has 21 picks in all including NINE 20* Top Plays! There won't be a bigger card the rest of the season folks!

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20* Northwestern/Oregon Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +3.5

The Oregon Ducks have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season, and they should not be favored over Northwestern here.  Oregon is 4-3 SU but 2-5 ATS this season despite coming into the season with national title aspirations.  Now those dreams are dead, and their lack of effort is starting to show on the field.

The Ducks got by Boise State by 7 at home as 24.5-point favorites to open the season.  That lackluster effort carried over to Week 2 when they were upset by 8 at Oklahoma State as 23.5-point favorites while getting outgained by 273 yards in the process.  The win at USC was good, but the last three weeks were concerning.  They lost outright as double-digit home favorites to UCLA, and needed to come back from 14-6 down in the 4th quarter to beat Nebraska by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites, and they lost outright 21-10 to Illinois as double-digit road favorites last week.

Their offense is broken without QB Dante Moore, who is out again this week and will be out for the season now.  They are also missing a couple key receivers, and their offensive line is banged up and bad.  Teams have been able to stack the box to stop the run, and the Ducks haven't shown any ability to run the ball with effectiveness outside the 84-0 win over Portland State which has skewed their numbers.  Even with those numbers included, the Ducks are averaging just 143.1 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

This Oregon defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 27 points to Boise State, 39 points and 554 yards to Oklahoma State, and 27 points and 446 yards to USC.  Illinois rushed for 225 yards and 5.8 per carry on Oregon last week, and I think this high-octane Northwestern rushing attack with have a ton of success on the ground, too.

Northwestern is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Even the lone loss was competitive as they took Indiana to the wire in a 29-23 loss against the defending champs to prove what they were capable of.  They have basically blown out everyone else, and their stats are elite.  The Wildcats average 34.7 points per game, 435.6 yards per game and 6.8 per play on offense while allowing just 16.6 points per game, 364.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.1 points per game and outgaining them by 71 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play.

I like the Chip Kelly revenge factor, too.  Kelly has turned this Northwestern offense into a formidable one and would love nothing more than to beat his former team in Oregon.  Senior QB Aidan Chiles has been awesome, completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,617 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 181 yards and 9 scores.  TE Luke Dehnicke is back from injury this week.  He had 7 receptions for 140 yards against Indiana.

Oregon is a tired, broken team coming off three straight wars against UCLA, Nebraska and Illinois.  Dan Lanning is desperate firing his offensive coordinator this week and promoting an assistant.  Lanning himself is a terrible game manager that should be on the hot seat wasting all this talent.  Losing his two coordinators last year proved to be massive, and he is lost without them.  The Wildcats are legit playoff contenders and will prove it with yet another upset road win here.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas State +11

One look at the numbers and it's easy to see that Texas State can hang with Boise State.  It's also easy to see that the Bobcats are much better than their 4-3 record would indicate, while the Broncos are much worse than their 6-1 record would indicate.

Texas State is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing just 5.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play this season.  Boise State is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing a terrible 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  If you just looked at those numbers alone you would make Texas State the favorite.

Texas State should also be 6-1 with a 5-point loss to UTSA despite outgaining them by 83 yards but -3 in turnovers was the difference.  They also lost by 2 to San Diego State in a game in which they outgained the Aztecs by 326 yards.  It was probably the single-most misleading final of the college football season.  If they were 6-1 like they should be with their only loss to Texas, this line would be much less.

Boise State won by 7 at Fresno State two weeks ago and last week were tied with Washington State going into the 4th quarter.  They also struggled to put away South Dakota in a 14-point win.  They are vulnerable, especially defensively allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.

The matchup is a good one for Texas State.  Both teams run the football a lot, but I trust Texas State's passing game more, which is where Boise State can be exposed.  The Broncos are allowing 251.3 passing yards per game and 8.0 yards per attempt.

Boise State averages 42 rushes per game for 237.9 yards per game.  Stop the run and you can stop Boise.  Well, Texas State's strength is its run defense, which allows just 114.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  And there is an 80% chance of rain throughout this game so scoring will be suppressed, which favors the underdog Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northern Illinois/UNLV OVER 54

This game will be played in perfect conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium Saturday night.  This total of 54 is too short in a game that features two dead nuts OVER teams with suspect defenses.

Northern Illinois is a tired, beat up defense that is one of the worst in the country.  The Huskies rank 136th in scoring defense allowing 38.6 points per game, 124th in total defense allowing 428.1 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.4 yards per play.  The last two weeks were very concerning when they allowed 41 points and 510 yards to Wyoming and 56 points and 504 yards to Hawaii.  Wyoming and Hawaii were previously two of the worst offenses in the country.

Now they must try to slow down a UNLV offense that has put up 31, 39 and 38 points in three of its last four games.  It's also a UNLV offense coming off a bye and ready to run up the score for 60 points with the pedal to the metal.  The Rebels will hang a big number on the Huskies to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.

But I think Northern Illinois will also have some success offensively against a UNLV defense that allowed 44 points to North Texas, 31 to Cal and 41 to Air Force.  The Huskies have played a tough schedule of opposing defenses and have 300-plus yards in four of their last six games.  I actually like QB Taron Dickens, who is completing 65.7% of his passes for 1,364 yards with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio.

Northern Illinois ranks 45th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.5 seconds while UNLV ranks 56th in tempo snapping the ball every 26 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and more opportunities for points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pac-12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas State/Boise State UNDER 64

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 64 ticket.  Temps will be around 50 with a 80% chance of rain throughout.  The rain will slow down the passing games for both teams, and this total is way too high given the forecast.

We have one of the fastest-paced teams in college football in Texas State up against one of the slowest in Boise State, so that cancels each other out.  Boise State ranks 134th out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.6 seconds.  Texas State is 11th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  But I have to believe in the tough conditions and atmosphere on the road, the Bobcats won't be snapping it as fast as they normally do.

Both teams are run-heavy as well, so the clock will be moving.  They'll be even more run-heavy in the rain.  Texas State averages 47 rush attempts per game compared to 29 pass attempts.  Boise State averages 42 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.

That makes this a great matchup for both defenses as it is strength on strength.  Boise State only allows 99.1 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry this season.  Texas State only allows 114.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  Bet the UNDER.

15* Oregon State/Fresno State Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -5.5

Oregon State has a legit path to the college football playoff.  With narrow losses to both Houston and Texas Tech, those are looked at as good losses.  They have run the table since, and they know they need style points plus to win out which will likely require two wins over Boise State.

After playing seven straight weeks to start the season, the Beavers earned a much-needed bye last week to regroup.  Now they are fresh and ready for this stretch run to make their run at a Pac-12 title and the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from them here against Fresno State.

But big efforts are what they have given in every game this season which is why they are also 6-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming by 0.5 points in an 18-point win over Washington State as 18.5-point favorites.  They also beat Montana by 35, UTEP by 26, Colorado State by 30 and San Diego State by 52.  These games haven't even been close, and oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to how good this team truly is.

Oregon State is averaging 42.7 points per game, 527.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play with an unstoppable offense led by one of the best QB/WR duos in the country.  QB Braden Atkinson is completing 69.2% of his passes for 2,606 yards with a 24-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  WR Jesse Legree has 46 receptions for 1,040 yards and 14 TD, and he has already announced he is coming back to Oregon State next season.  The chemistry with this team is unreal right now and one of the best stories in college football.

This Oregon State defense is not too shabby, either.  The Beavers allow 23.1 points per game, 345.3 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  So they are outgaining opponents by 172 yards per game and 2.2 yards per play.  Let's compare that to Fresno State and it's easy to see the Beavers should be favored by more.

Fresno State is averaging 352.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 384.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play on defense.  So the Bulldogs are actually getting outgained by 32 yards per game and are dead even on yards per play.  And they have played an easier schedule than Oregon State has.  

And their numbers are inflated due to a 49-3 win over Sacramento State, the worst team in FBS by far.  The Bulldogs' other three wins came against SJSU, Rice and Washington State.  They even were upset to San Diego State, the same SDSU team that Oregon State beat by 52.  And their 38-31 home loss to Boise State was misleading as they allowed 512 yards to the Broncos and were outgained by 166 yards.  They should have lost by more.  I fully expect the Beavers to win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/UCLA UNDER 44.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket.  There is basically a 50% chance of rain throughout this game Saturday.  These are two dead nuts UNDER teams as it is and I'd be on the UNDER even without the chance of rain, but it certainly would be a bonus.

UCLA was already without starting QB Nico Iamaleava, and their offense is much less potent without his dual-threat ability.  Backup QB Ty Dieffenbach is a decent passer, but he's no threat to run.  And he's banged up with a leg injury heading into this one.  Star RB Wayne Knight (627 yards, 13 TD, 6.3/carry) is questionable with a rib injury and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sit him in this non-conference tilt.

The Bruins were held to 17 points by UCLA, 17 by Wisconsin and 28 by Michigan State in their three games with Dieffenbach at QB.  It won't get much easier against this underrated Nevada defense this week.  The Wolf Pack are allowing just 22.0 points per game, 320.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  This watered down UCLA offense will not scare them, and they'll be able to hold them in check for four quarters.  The Bruins have no incentive to get margin so they'll just be trying to run out the clock in the 2H if they are up by multiple scores, too.

Nevada's weakness is an offense that has been dealing with QB injuries all season playing three different guys at QB.  No matter who is under center, I don't expect them to have much success against UCLA.  The Wolf Pack are averaging 26.3 points pre game, 356.4 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  They'll be up against an elite UCLA defense that is allowing just 15.3 points per game, 272.9 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.

This feels like a game with a 28-10 or a 31-10 final.  Getting this this total above the key number of 44.5 is tremendous value.  UCLA's last three games with a backup QB have seen 32, 24 and 38 combined points.  Nevada went for 43 combined points with UTEP, 48 with NDSU and 41 with San Jose State in its last three games.  And that NDSU game should have finished at 41 or fewer, but a FG that came up short was returned for a TD on the final play before halftime was a 7-point swing since it was a long attempt that came up short.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada +23

It's time to 'sell high' on the UCLA Bruins.  They are one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country at 7-0 this season.  They are also 6-0-1 ATS so they haven't lost once for bettors.  I'm not saying they are going to lose outright, but this game against Nevada will be much closer than expected for a number of reasons.

UCLA has benefited from playing one of the softest schedules in the country while catching certain teams at the right times.  The wins over Cal, SDSU and Purdue to open the season don't look as good now.  The blowout win over Maryland came in a hangover spot for the Terrapins off a loss to VA Tech, arguably their biggest rival.  They got to play Oregon with a backup QB, and Oregon is trash.  They beat Wisconsin by 10 at home.  And last week they got to face a banged up Michigan State team with a backup QB and won by 18 to barely cover as 16.5-point favorites.

This is the exhale spot.  UCLA steps out of conference to face Nevada before the stretch Big Ten run coming up after against Illinois, Michigan and USC with a legit shot to run the table.  I just can't see UCLA being 'all in' here.  I think the Bruins will be more than happy to just get in and get out with a win as they don't need margin, they just need to try and win out.  Even one loss might still get them into the 12-team playoff.

UCLA was already without starting QB Nico Iamaleava, and their offense is much less potent without his dual-threat ability.  Backup QB Ty Dieffenbach is a decent passer, but he's no threat to run.  And he's banged up with a leg injury heading into this one.  Star RB Wayne Knight (627 yards, 13 TD, 6.3/carry) is questionable with a rib injury and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sit him in this non-conference tilt.

Nevada will treat this game as its national championship game.  It will mean a lot more to the Wolf Pack than the Bruins.  And this has been a feisty Nevada team that hasn't lost by this kind of margin all season.  They are 3-4 but their four losses have come by 13, 7, 3 and 14 points.  And their two biggest losses were misleading.  They lost by 13 to Montana State, one of the best teams in the FCS, despite outgaining them by 49 yards.  They lost by 14 to North Dakota State, one of the best teams in the MWC, only because their FG attempt on the final play before half was short and returned for a TD by the Bison.

What gives Nevada a chance to be competitive in this game is the fact that they have one of the best defenses in the country.  The Wolf Pack are allowing just 22.0 points per game, 320.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  This watered down UCLA offense will not scare them, and they'll be able to hold them in check for four quarters.  The Bruins have no incentive to get margin so they'll just be trying to run out the clock in the 2H if they are up by multiple scores, too.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UConn +1

The Air Force Falcons were able to overcome a season-ending injury to starting QB Liam Szarka (391 rushing yards, 7 TD, 4.3/carry).  Backup Evan Medders (490 yards, 6 TD, 6.7/carry) was actually better than him from a statistical standpoint.

But Medders went out with an injury in a 28-14 loss at Wyoming last week and will be out again this week.  That means the Falcons are down to their 3rd-string QB whether it be Fisher IV or Johnson.  But I have to think it's going to be a significant drop off this week, and Air Force should not be favored as a result.

Air Force has a tired, poor defense that has been exposed the last two weeks.  They allowed 31 points to UNLV two weeks ago and 28 points and 7.3 yards per play to a bad Wyoming offense last week.  They will actually be playing for a 6th consecutive week.

UConn had a bye two weeks ago and probably got some prep in for the option coming up.  They came back from their bye last week and made easy work of UMass 35-16 at home.  That's a vastly improved UMass team that also got starting QB Pop Watson back last week.  The Huskies should be fresh heading into this game with Air Force after a blowout win off a bye.

Former Toledo head coach Jason Candle is doing a great job at UConn.  They are close to being 6-1 with two of their losses coming by 1 to Syracuse in OT and by 3 at Miami Ohio.  They have been dominant in all four wins with all four coming by 14 points or more.  They have elite numbers averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  Air Force is actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play on the season, so it's clear UConn is the better team even if Air Force was healthy at QB.

This is a great matchup for the Huskies because they have been elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies allow just 107.9 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.  They will be able to slow down this Air Force triple-option offense with a 3rd-string QB.  And the Huskies should score at will on this tired Air Force defense.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UConn Saturday.

15* Florida/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Florida +12.5

The best version of the Florida Gators has been good enough to blowout out Ole Miss at home and to upset Texas on the road.  The worst version of Florida looked real bad in their two losses to Missouri on the road and South Carolina at home.  Coming off their bye week and getting healthy, I think we get the best version of Florida Saturday, which will be good enough to stay within this number against Georgia.

Florida has an elite offense scoring 39.6 points per game, averaging 450.9 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  The Gators have one of the best offensive coordinators in the country in Buster Faulkner, who was responsible for winning championships at Georgia prior to going to Georgia Tech.  And that helps explain why Georgia Tech gave Georgia so much trouble in the rivalry game in recent seasons.  Faulkner knows how to attack a Kirby Smart defense.

Georgia benefited from a cake walk schedule in its first five games beating Tennessee State, WKU, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt at home, as well as Arkansas on the road.  They finally stepped up in class and found some trouble, winning by 3 at Alabama but getting upset by Auburn last time out as 19.5-point home favorites.  I think Georgia's numbers are still being propped up from the soft schedule overall, which has them getting more respect than they should be here as a double-digit favorite over Florida.

Auburn ran for 192 yards on Georgia and Alabama ran for 161 yards on Georgia.  Florida wants to run the ball, and I think it will have success doing it.  The Gators average 194.3 rushing yards per game.  But they have tremendous balance with 256.6 passing yards per game and 8.4 per attempt.  They will never be out of this game with this Faulkner-coached offense.  They are expected to get back their best WR in Vernell Brown who has been out since the upset win over Ole Miss and missed both of their losses.  They have some of the best playmakers in the country.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Coastal Carolina +6

The spot really favors Coastal Carolina on Saturday.  The Chanticleers are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia State.  Meanwhile, Georgia State is coming off consecutive losses to James Madison 49-22 two weeks ago and Arkansas State 38-32 last week.

But the biggest reason I'm on Coastal Carolina is because Georgia State lost starting QB Cameran Brown to an injury last week in that loss to Arkansas State, and he is irreplaceable for them.  Brown is completing 66.3% of his passes for 1,356 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 174 yards and a score.  It's a big downgrade from Brown to backup Ayden Pereira, who has a 2-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season.

Coastal has had some tough luck to be 2-5 this season with four one-score losses plus a 17-point loss to the best team in C-USA in Liberty.  They lost by 7 at WVU, by 7 to Georgia Southern, by 8 at Delaware and by 3 at home to App State.  They are much better than their record would indicate.

I really like what I've seen from Coastal Carolina QB Deuce Bailey.  He has thrown for 1,638 yards with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 230 yards on the ground.  He will have his way with this poor, tired Georgia State defense that allowed 49 points and 38 points the last two weeks.  They also allowed 44 points to UCF earlier this season.  Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State/Iowa State OVER 57.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last six games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State, 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia, 42 points and 414 yards on UCF, 32 points and 499 yards on Houston and 57 points and 598 yards on Colorado.  They have gone 5-1 OVER in those six games with 59 or more combined points in all six.  This total of 57.5 is too short for a game involving the Cowboys.

Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 21st in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  They combined for 70 points with Oregon, 65 with WVU, 70 with UCF, 67 with Houston and 81 with Colorado.  They are going to be in a shootout with Iowa State this week as well.  Their defense is a problem and will continue to get exposed as the season progresses having to be on the field so long because their offense scores so fast.

Iowa State played a similar team to Oklahoma State earlier this season and beat West Virginia 45-42 in an absolute shootout that saw 87 combined points.  Iowa State's offense was held in check in the two games since, but it's easy to see why as they faced the two best defenses in the Big 12 in BYU and Arizona both on the road.  Now they are back home and should get back to scoring a ton of points to try and keep up in a shootout with the Cowboys.

Iowa State just doesn't have the talent to hold up defensively.  The Cyclones allowed 518 yards and 8.2 yards per play to WVU, 506 yards and 8.3 per play to BYU and 477 yards and 6.5 per play to Arizona in their last three games.  You can only imagine what Oklahoma State is going to do to them as this is easily the best offense they will have faced this season.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.  Former North Texas head coach Eric Morris faced Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers when he was at Washington State last season.  North Texas won that game 59-10 over Washington State.  He clearly knows how to attack a Rogers defense as that was far and away their worst game defensively last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +5

South Carolina is 4-3 but probably deserved better in two of the losses.  They lost by 7 to Mississippi State despite outgaining them by 38 yards.  They lost 35-34 (OT) to Kentucky despite outgaining them by 64 yards.  It was impressive to see them play up to their potential and bounce back with a 38-19 road win at Florida off the Kentucky loss.  It saved their season.

The Gamecocks returned from their bye last week and kept the momentum with a 27-24 home win over Tennessee.  There was nothing fluky about the win either as the Gamecocks outgained the Vols 5.5 to 4.4 yards per play.  They are very close to being 6-1 this season and have the numbers of a team that easily could be.  If they were they wouldn't be catching 5 points to Oklahoma this week.

South Carolina has elite numbers averaging 36.1 points per game, 456.0 yards per game and 6.4 per play on offense, while allowing 337.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 118 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  They will be fresh after just having a bye two weeks ago, and I think they keep the momentum going this week.

Oklahoma will be playing for a 4th consecutive week off three straight wars.  They beat Texas 27-24 despite getting outgained by 144 yards by the Longhorns in a very misleading final.  They lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky, a team that South Carolina played tougher than Oklahoma did.  And last week they benefited from Mississippi State being without starting QB Kemario Taylor, one of the best players in college football.  The Sooners still struggled to put away the Bulldogs in a 23-15 win.  That's a bad Mississippi State team that lost 31-0 to LSU and 56-23 to Alabama in its two games prior.

Oklahoma has such poor offensive numbers that it cannot be trusted to lay a number to South Carolina here.  The Sooners average just 21.6 points per game, 333.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play this season.  QB John Mateer is broken with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 2 fumbles lost.  And this Oklahoma defense has to be getting tired of trying to carry him.  The Sooners are only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play this season.  We are getting the better, more rested team catching points here.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest -12.5

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with their lone loss coming to the No. 1 ranked team in the country in Miami by 13 as 20.5-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 44 yards by Miami, too.

The Demon Deacons have gone on the road and beaten both Purdue and Louisville, and they have absolutely crushed everyone else.  They beat Akron by 22, Stanford by 54, NC State by 24 on the road and Cal by 34 on the road.  They are coming off their bye week, and they come out of it motivated knowing that if they run the table they will make the ACC title game and possibly earn a trip to the 12-team playoff.  They will be favored in every game outside of their trip to SMU, which is winnable.

Wake Forest has the numbers of a playoff team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 445.9 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play on offense while allowing just 19.4 points per game, 322.6 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.0 points per game and outgaining them by 123 yards per game and 2.2 yards per play.

Virginia made a run to the ACC Championship Game last season before losing to Duke.  The Cavaliers had dreams of getting back there, but hose dreams have been crushed with four losses already.  I could see them going into the tank here the rest of the way, especially after a 19-16 home loss to Duke last week in their ACC Championship revenge game.

While Wake Forest is coming off a bye, Virginia is a tired team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  The Cavaliers are coming off three straight wars with a 3-point home win over Syracuse, a 10-point road loss at SMU and a 3-point home loss to Duke.  Their last three road games have been very concerning, as was the fact that they were outgained by 142 yards by Syracuse and a 3rd-string QB at home in a misleading 3-point win.

Virginia lost by 11 to West Virginia on a neutral.  The Cavaliers lost 38-7 at Florida State and were outgained by 159 yards by the Seminoles.  Those are mediocre WVU and FSU teams at best.  And they lost by 10 at SMU while getting outgained by 146 yards in a bit of a misleading final that they probably should have lost by more.  Those results are why I think Wake Forest will have no problem winning this game by 2 TD or more to cover this number.

Virginia just doesn't have the firepower offensively to keep up with Wake Forest, either.  QB Beau Pribula has been a major disappointment.  In their last four games the Cavaliers have averaged just 16.0 points per game and 276 yards per game.  And now they face the toughest opponent they have all season in Wake Forest off a bye.  It's not going to go well for them.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Stanford/Louisville OVER 59

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Stanford visits Louisville in this ACC showdown.  These are two very good offenses up against two suspect defenses.  Louisville is 6-1 OVER this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all seven games, and 59 or more in six of them.  Stanford is 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 59 or more combined points in five of those eight.  This total of 59 is actually short for a game involving Stanford and Louisville.

Louisville has an elite offense averaging 38.7 points per game, 484.6 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals should have their way with a Stanford defense that allows 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  Louisville is off a bye and will be all gas no breaks for 60 minutes on offense.  But this is one of the worst defenses of the Jeff Brohm era.  The Cardinals allow 27.4 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play this season.

Former Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard has turned Stanford into more of an offensive-minded team.  And I've been very impressed with their offense in recent weeks.  Stanford has scored 34 or more points in three of its last five games and the only two exceptions were against playoff contenders in Wake Forest and Notre Dame.  They just put up 34 points and 515 yards on Elon and 31 points and 477 yards on NC State in their last two games.  Michigan transfer QB Davis Warren is quietly having a big season, completing 60% of his passes for 1,933 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

This Stanford defense has been blasted on the road.  The Cardinal allow 50.0 points per game in their three road games this season.  Stanford ranks 39th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 25.4 seconds.  They are going to have to play faster to try and keep up with Louisville, which ranks 68th in tempo at 26.4 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain in Louisville.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +6

I love the spot for Temple this week.  They are coming off their bye and have had two full weeks to be pissed off and prepare for this game.  It was a bad 38-31 loss to Charlotte.  It was just another tough loss for the Owls, who now have three losses by one score.  They are much better than their 2-5 record would indicate, and they'll be out to prove it today.

East Carolina is coming off two straight OT losses to UAB and Memphis.  This is a tired ECU team that will be playing for a 4th consecutive week off those two OT losses.  I think those kinds of losses are disheartening and very difficult to get back up off the mat after.  This is a 3-4 ECU team with two of those wins coming at home over Rice and NC Central, and another 3-point road win at lowly ODU.

Looking at the numbers it's easy to see these teams are much closer to equals.  In fact, Temple averages 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 6.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  ECU averages 5.2 yards per play on offense and allows 4.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.  Temple has actually been slightly better.

Temple QB Ajani Sheppard has been upgraded to probable this week.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 331 yards and 5 scores on 5.0 per carry.  He has been dynamic in this Temple offense.  ECU starting QB Emory Williams is questionable for this one, and it's a big downgrade from him to backup Mitch Griffis if he cannot go.  This line should be much closer to PK given the rest advantage for the Owls and the slight YPP advantage.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* Notre Dame/Navy Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 56.5

Notre Dame is going to hang a big number on Navy to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 56.5 ticket.  They do every year, and that won't change this season.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 59 or more combined points in four of the last six.  Notre Dame has scored 34 or more points in seven straight meetings while averaging 43.9 points per game in those seven meetings.

This is another poor Navy defense that is allowing 29.1 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They cannot stop the pass, allowing 9.9 yards per attempt.  They recently allowed 49 points to North Texas and 38 to UTSA in their last two games coming in.  The OVER is 3-0 in Navy's last three games with 60 or more combined points in all three.

Notre Dame is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 59 or more combined points in three of those four.  The lone exception was the 52 against BYU, which is an elite defensive team.  They even went for 63 with another under team in UNC.  Their offense is rolling scoring 49 points on Purdue, 37 on UNC and 58 on Stanford in three of their last four games with BYU the only one to hold them in check.

Navy also features one of the best offenses in program history.  In their last three games, the Midshipmen put up 34 points and 481 yards on Tulsa, 34 points and 477 yards on UTSA and 39 points and 506 yards on North Texas.  I expect them to easily get into the double-digits against Notre Dame, which will come close to matching its season average of 41.1 points per game.  CJ Carr is in line for a big day throwing the football against this awful Navy secondary.

Notre Dame has incentive to get margin and keep scoring late to try and pad its stats for the 12-team playoff.  That's especially the case after being the first team left out of the playoff last year.  The forecast looks great for a shootout too with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain at Gillette Stadium Saturday.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on SMU/Syracuse OVER 57.5

This game will be played in perfect conditions indoors in the Carrier Dome on a fast track.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game with Syracuse ranking 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.0 seconds, and SMU ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 25.1 seconds.  SMU has incentive to pour on points late too to try and help its case for making the 12-team playoff.

SMU has an elite offense.  The Mustangs rank 22nd in scoring at 36.4 points per game, 14th in total offense at 473.9 yards per game and 11th at 6.9 yards per play.  They will get whatever they want against this suspect Syracuse defense that has allowed 41 points to UConn, 28 to Virginia, 34 to Louisville and 30 to UNC in their last four games, going 4-0 OVER finishing with 60 or more combined points in three of those four.

Syracuse has gone through four different QB's this season.  But starter Steve Angeli returned to the lineup last week and led the Orange to a 31-30 upset win at UNC.  Angeli went 20-of-34 for 256 yards and 2 TD without an interception in the win.  That came against a very good UNC defense.  He should be able to have even more success against SMU at home this week.

SMU has benefited from playing a soft schedule of opposing offenses.  But Louisville put up 41 points on them, and they even allowed 24 points to lowly Missouri State.  This is a big step up in class for them against a fast-paced Syracuse offense with a ton of talent surrounding Angeli.  WR Umari Hatcher is one of the best in the country with 54 receptions for 887 yards and 8 TD for the Orange.  SMU will be without two starters in S Tyren Polley (34 tackles) and DE Ira Singleton this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Boston College/Duke UNDER 48.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off Saturday when Duke hosts Boston College.  These are two teams with suspect offenses and elite defenses who also play at a snail's pace.  Duke ranks 103rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds, while Boston College ranks 92nd snapping the ball every 27.5 seconds.

Boston College recently held SMU's high-powered offense to 218 total yards and 3.5 per play a few weeks ago.  The Eagles keep getting great defensive efforts every week and are one of the most underrated stop units in the country.  They allow 23.6 points per game, 333.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.

This is an average Boston College offense at best averaging just 24.4 points per game this season.  The Eagles have been held to 28 points or fewer in six of their seven games.  Nothing will come easy against this Duke defense coached by Manny Diaz.  The Blue Devils allow just 16.0 points per game, 301.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.

Duke QB Walker Eget suffered a throwing hand injury in the 19-16 win over Virginia last week.  He was able to finish the game, but he wasn't very effective.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 211 yards with an INT.  They used a trick play with a halfback pass from Sheppard to get the game-winning score in the final seconds.  I think Eget will play this week, but he will still be dealing with that hand injury and won't be anywhere near 100%.

Boston College is 5-2 UNDER in all games this season going for 49 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  Duke is 4-3 UNDER in all games this season going for 44 or fewer combined points in four of those seven games.  This total of 48.5 is too high given the profiles of these two teams.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in five of those six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on UAB +8

Just comparing these two teams and looking at the numbers it's easy to see there's not more than a touchdown separating them.  In fact, this line should be much closer to PK when you dig a little deeper.

UAB is 4-3 this season outgaining opponents by 22.1 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  South Florida is 5-2 this season outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.  The Bulls are fortunate to be 5-2 this season, and that record has them overvalued.

The real concerning results were their last two games against bottom feeder MAC teams.  They only won 14-6 at Bowling Green as 18.5-point favorites.  They only managed 214 yards and 4.0 per play against the Falcons, who have a terrible defense.  Their 29-2 win over Kent State was extremely misleading.  They only managed 271 total yards against Kent State and only outgained them by 43 yards.  This is a bad, bad USF offense that isn't capable of getting margin.

I love the way this UAB team is trending.  The Blazers are 3-1 SU in their last four games overall upsetting Navy, crushing Samford and upsetting East Carolina.  Even the game they lost to Memphis was misleading as they were only outgained by 84 yards but were -3 in turnovers.

This UAB defense is one of the most improved in the country.  The Blazers are only allowing 316.9 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  They have been slightly better than USF in that category despite facing a much tougher slate of opposing offenses.  This game will come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is tremendous value.

It will be windy for this game with 15 MPH steady winds throughout.  The team that runs the ball better will have the advantage.  UAB averaging 168 rushing yards per game while USF averages just 141.9 rushing yards per game despite the soft schedule of opposing defenses.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +7

Boston College is flying under the radar in going 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Eagles only lost by 7 to Virginia Tech as 14.5-point dogs, by 9 at SMU as 21.5-point dogs, upset Pitt by 6 as 6-point dogs and crushed Georgia Tech by 22 as 6-point dogs.  

Even the 9-point loss to SMU was misleading as Boston College outgained SMU by 104 yards and held the high-powered Mustangs to 218 total yards and 3.5 per play.  The Eagles keep getting great defensive efforts every week and are one of the most underrated stop units in the country.  They allowed 23.6 points per game, 333.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 74 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages.

But what's really exciting is how improved this offense has been the last two weeks.  They put up 27 points, 398 yards and 5.9 per play against a very good Pitt defense.  Then they shredded Georgia Tech for 49 points, 500 yards and 7.8 per play last week.  Freshman QB Mason McKenzie is balling out, and his dual-threat ability has been tough to tame.  McKenzie has thrown for 1,363 yards while also rushing for 614 yards and 5 scores.

This is a tough spot for Duke playing for a 4th consecutive week after three straight wars.  Duke actually lost by 3 at Georgia Tech as 4.5-point favorites to give them a common opponent to BC, which torched Georgia Tech by 22.  Duke then lost 24-20 at home to UNC two weeks ago.  And last week in the ACC Championship Game rematch, the Blue Devils came away with a 19-16 win at Virginia as 2.5-point dogs.  This is the exhale spot against BC.

Duke QB Walker Eget suffered a throwing hand injury in the win over Virginia.  He was able to finish the game, but he wasn't very effective.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 211 yards with an INT.  They used a trick play with a halfback pass from Sheppard to get the game-winning score in the final seconds.  I think Eget will play this week, but he will still be dealing with that hand injury and won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3

I love the spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They usually force their opponents into mistakes to give the game away.  Instead, the roles were reversed last week against Minnesota as they gave the game away with 4 turnovers in a 13-10 loss.  That misleading final gives us value on Iowa -3 this week.  They held Minnesota to 209 yards and 3.4 yards per play and lost.

Wisconsin is coming off a misleading 24-7 win over USC.  The Badgers won that game by 17 despite having just 200 total yards and 3.5 yards per play.  USC gave it away with two turnovers and outgained Wisconsin by 41 yards.  It was more USC bad than Wisconsin good.

This Wisconsin offense is broken.  The Badgers managed just 7 points and 214 total yards against UCLA two weeks ago and then 200 yards and 3.5 per play against a mediocre USC defense last week.  Iowa's defense is better than both and will shut down Wisconsin.  The Hawkeyes allow just 14.3 points per game, 281.3 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.

Iowa also has the better offense.  The Hawkeyes are averaging 386.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  Wisconsin is only averaging 330.1 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Throw in the fact that Iowa is at home and coming off a loss, and the Hawkeyes should be more than 3-point favorites this week.

Iowa owns Wisconsin going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They won by 32 and 14 at home, and they won by 37 and by 9 on the road.  These games haven't even been close, and I don't think this one will be, either.  Bet Iowa Saturday.