Jack's Free Pick Saturday: SMU -9.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the SMU Mustangs.  They have failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games coming in.  They outgained Louisville by 37 yards but lost 41-31 on the road.  They outgained Missouri State by 353 yards but only won that game by 10 as 30.5-point favorites.  And they had a stinker against Boston College in a 25-16 win as 21.5-point home favorites, a BC defense that is much better than it gets credit for and held the Mustangs in check.

But now the Mustangs are off a bye week and have two full weeks to get ready for Virginia.  I think the three straight non-covers has us getting them at a discount now as a single-digit home favorite here in a tremendous spot.  I expect them to put their best foot forward this week.

Virginia is in shambles.  The Cavaliers lost 38-27 to West Virginia as 10.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That loss looks real bad now after WVU has since suffered three consecutive losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Arizona with two in blowout fashion.  Virginia went on to beat Delaware with a backup QB at home.  But the last two efforts coming into this game are the most concerning.

Virginia lost 38-7 at Florida State two weeks ago, and it was just as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Seminoles and held to just 205 total yards.  That's a FSU team that was just blasted 44-20 by Louisville last week, and one with a very poor defense.  And last week the Cavaliers escaped with a 28-25 home win over Syracuse as 13.5-point favorites in a win they did not deserve.  They were outgained by 142 yards by the Orange, who were playing with 3rd-string QB Malachi Nelson.  They gave up 430 yards Syracuse.

This Virginia offense is broken with Beau Pribula, who clearly isn't 100% and is not the dual-threat they expected him to be.  He has just 97 rushing yards on 58 carries this season.  The regression bug is finally hitting the Cavaliers after making the ACC title game last season while getting all the breaks in close games along the way.

SMU has elite numbers and is still a ACC title contender.  The Mustangs average 484.2 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 312.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 172.4 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play this season, which are two of the best marks in the country.  Look for them to put everything together off their bye this week against a reeling Cavaliers team, and to finally live up to their potential on the scoreboard with a win and cover.  Bet SMU Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force PK

The Air Force Falcons are a complete team this season.  They brought back 12 starters including eight on defense with one of the most improved defenses in the country.  The Falcons are holding opponents to 17.4 points per game, 279.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season during their 4-1 start.

This defense has helped them overcome the loss of QB Liam Szarka, who many felt was an injury their couldn't overcome.  But their backup QB's have been just as good, if not better runners.  The market came in heavy against them last week and they blasted Northern Illinois 28-7 as 7-point favorites.  They didn't throw a single pass and rushed for a whopping 439 yards.  That was a NIU team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for them, too.

Now they face a UNLV team that is in a major letdown spot off consecutive home wins over Cal and North Dakota State.  They were outgained by 109 yards by Cal and 45 yards by North Dakota State in a pair of misleading wins.  Their lone TD against NDSU came on a pick-6 by their defense, which was the difference in the game in a 13-7 win.

UNLV has some key offensive injuries heading into this one that will really hamper their chance to win this game.  Star QB Jackson Arnold and star RB Jai'den Thomas are both questionable.  Arnold has thrown for 1,140 yards and 8 TD while also rushing for 330 yards and 5 TD.  Thomas has rushed for 495 yards and 2 TD, so it would be a major blow if one of them cannot go, and an impossible blow to recover from if both don't go.  I like Air Force either way.

UNLV has a defensive coordinator that came from the NFL and isn't used to defending the triple-option.  Air Force lit up this UNLV defense for 48 points and 603 total yards last season, including 428 rushing.  Without a bye to get ready for them, I don't think the Rebels will be able to stop the Falcons this week.  I also think UNLV is tired off two wars with Cal and NDSU the last two weeks.  This is their 'exhale' spot, similar to when they traveled back from Hawaii and then went on the road to face North Texas and got blasted 44-6 earlier this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +15

Looking at the numbers it's easy to see Nevada is much closer to North Dakota State than their records suggest.  Nevada is 2-3 this season despite outgaining opponents 5.8 to 4.9 yards per play, or by an average of 0.9 yards per play.  North Dakota State is 5-1 outgaining opponents 5.7 to 4.1 yards per play, or by an average of 1.6 yards per play.  No question the Bison are the better team, but they certainly aren't 15 points better than the Wolf Pack.

Nevada QB Carter Jones has been in and out of the lineup which is why this number is inflated.  Their numbers are even more impressive with that being the case.  They lost 20-7 to Montana State, which is the best team in the FCS.  They outgained Montana State by 19 yards in that game even without Jones.  North Dakota State is basically on the same level as Montana State coming over from FCS.

These teams have a common opponent in Air Force.  Nevada lost 36-33 (OT) to Air Force and was outgained by 44 yards.  North Dakota State beat Air Force 38-30 and was outgained by 12 yards.  The other four wins for the Bison came against Jacksonville State, Fordham, Sacramento State and Wyoming.  They just lost 13-7 at UNLV last week.

I think North Dakota State is running out of gas playing for a 7th consecutive week to open the season.  The offense was broken last week against a bad UNLV defense, and injuries are a problem now with QB Nathan Hayes banged up, and leading rusher DJ Scott (306 yards, 4 TD) likely out for this game.

Nevada got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and came back and blasted UTEP 30-13 on the road last week.  The Wolf Pack will be the much fresher team in this game, and I like them to cover this inflated number even if it's backup QB AJ Bianco getting the start.  Getting Jones back in there would only be an added bonus as he is questionable.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters.  They allow just 22.0 points per game this season.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida Atlantic +2.5

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic this week.  They are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Army.  I always like backing teams who have extra time to prepare for the triple-option these service academy's run.

FAU has the advantage of already having seen one service academy this season so they are already prepared for it.  The Owls beat Navy 38-30 at home in Week 2.  They held the Midshipmen to 246 rushing yards which is actually pretty good defending a service academy.  They will hold this Army offense down, too.

These service academies struggle to face high-octane passing attacks like FAU because they don't have the personnel to practice against it.  FAU lit up Navy for 386 passing yards, and they will light up this Army defense, too.  Army hasn't seen anything like this all season facing several weak passing offenses in Bryant, USF, Temple, LA Tech and Tulane thus far.

FAU ranks 2nd in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  The Owls are scoring 37.2 points per game behind 304 passing yards per game.  Senior QB Caden Veltkamp has been thriving in this system again this season.  He is completing 73% of his passes for 1,425 yards with a 12-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

FAU also has a bigger NIL fund than a lot of Group of 6 teams and spent a lot of money on defense in the offseason.  It has paid off as the Owls are holding opponents to 26.6 points per game, which is a massive improvement from last season when they allowed 36.3 points per game.  They will be ready to hold Army in check.

This Army defense is down a couple notches this season and isn't the usual solid Black Knights defense.  They are allowing 6.6 yards per play this season, which ranks 128th of 138 teams in the country.  That's real poor when you consider the schedule of opposing offenses thus far, which is very weak.  FAU can name its number against this Army defense Saturday.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/BYU ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -10.5

After missing the 12-team playoff last year by one spot, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish know they have to handle their business in these big games this season.  They have had this game against BYU and the game against Miami later on circled all offseason as 'prove it' games.  They want to leave no doubt, and they will be max motivated to put on a show Saturday night against BYU.

No question the Cougars will be hyped too with Notre Dame coming to town.  But BYU's path to the playoff solely rests on how they do in the Big 12.  Win the Big 12 title and they will be in the 12-team playoff.  This game doesn't mean much to them in the grand scheme of things.

We saw BYU step up in class twice last season and get exposed, which is why they were left out of the playoff.  BYU lost 29-7 to Texas Tech in the regular season and then lost again 34-7 in the Big 12 Championship Game to the Red Raiders.  I think the Cougars will see a similar fate here against a Notre Dame team that is better than that Texas Tech team was.

Notre Dame has the best defense in the country for my money.  The Fighting Irish brought back nine starters on defense this season and enter this game basically as healthy as they have been all season on D.  They are allowing just 11.0 points per game, 214 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season.

It took some time for this Notre Dame offense to fully gel, but they have found some playmakers at RB and WR to go with one of the best QB's in the country in CJ Carr.  The Fighting Irish are averaging 44.0 points per game and 6.9 yards per play this season.  Their 41-13 win over Wisconsin and their 49-10 win at Purdue have aged very well.  That remains Wisconsin's only loss, and Purdue is coming off consecutive wins over Minnesota and Illinois.  BYU is a team that profiles similar to Wisconsin, too.

BYU will be without Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin.  He rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 TD last season, and they just don't have a backup that has his explosion.  They are going to have to be more pass-happy with Bear Bachmeir, and he hasn't faced a secondary nearly the quality of this elite Notre Dame unit.  He's not a very good passer and is more of a dual-threat, and the Fighting Irish will take away his legs.

BYU has benefited from an extremely soft schedule to this point.  The wins have come against Utah Tech, Colorado State, TCU, Iowa State and Arizona.  Only Arizona was a decent win, but they only outgained the Wildcats by 38 yards, and that was back when Martin was healthy.  They were actually held to 216 total yards by TCU and outgained by 43 yards.  Their win over Iowa State last week was against a tired ISU team coming off a 45-42 win over WVU at home the previous week, and then having to play on a short week in altitude.

Notre Dame comes into this game very fresh.  The Fighting Irish just blasted Stanford 58-7 at home last week which allowed their starters to rest in the 2H.  There was zero lookahead as they handled their business.  And they will handle their business Saturday night in Provo to basically punch their ticket into the 12-team playoff with a blowout win over the Cougars.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Cincinnati/West Virginia OVER 62.5

West Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team under Rich Rodriquez this season.  His teams always play fast, and that is no exception this season as the Mountaineers rank 3rd in tempo this season snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds.  They have a very good offense but one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Mountaineers are a perfect 6-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in four straight coming in.  This total of 62.5 is too low for a game involving West Virginia.

The Mountaineers are scoring 36.3 points per game, averaging 480.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  But their defense has been atrocious, allowing 32.7 points per game, 460.8 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  It has been particularly poor the last three weeks allowing 41 points and 609 yards to Oklahoma State, 45 points and 577 yards to Iowa State and 52 points and 482 yards to Arizona.

Cincinnati is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72, 66 and 57 combined points in the three overs.  The defense looks very suspect allowing 31 points and 7.3 yards per play to Miami Ohio, 26 points and 447 yards to K-State and then 34 points and 522 yards to Arizona last week.  That was an Arizona team missing three of its top four receivers, too, and they just ran wild on them for 238 yards and 5.8 per carry.  You can just imagine what this high-octane WVU rushing attack it going to do to this soft Cincinnati defense this week.  WVU averages 295.5 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

I do like what I've seen from this Cincinnati offense this season as it is much better than most anticipated.  They are scoring 33.8 points per game.  They have a dual-threat QB in JC French, who is completing 70% of his passes for 949 yards and a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 193 yards and 5 scores on the ground.  The duo of Payne (392 rushing yards, 6.3/carry, 2 TD) and Tabb (330 yards, 9.7/carry, 6 TD) have been electric in the backfield.

The Bearcats have had two weeks to get ready for WVU coming off their bye week.  They will have a lot of new wrinkles offensively to try out against what has to just be a gassed WVU defense after four straight shootouts with Virginia, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Arizona where they just couldn't get off the field.  Cincinnati will hang a big number on WVU, and I expect both teams to get into the 30's in this one as yet another WVU game sails OVER the number.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Houston Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 62.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last four games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State, 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia and 42 points and 414 yards on UCF.  

Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 20th in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.  They will likely play faster in competitive games like they have been in combining for 70 points with Oregon, 65 with WVU and 70 with UCF.  They are going to be in a shootout with Houston this week as well.

Houston has one of the most underrated offenses in the country ranking in the Top 10 in several major categories.  They are scoring 40.0 points per game, averaging 481.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play despite a decently tough schedule of Oregon State, Texas Tech, UCF and K-State thus far.  They put up 35 points and 475 yards on K-State and 26 points and 458 yards on Texas Tech.  They will light up this suspect Oklahoma State defense.

Houston's defense hasn't been as good as expected this season.  They are particularly poor in the secondary, which makes this a terrible matchup for them against QB Drew Mestemaker and this high-octane Oklahoma State passing attack that averages 322.4 passing yards per game and 9.4 per attempt.  Houston allows 248.3 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt.  They allowed 376 passing yards to Oregon State, 289 to Georgia Southern, 9.2 per attempt to Texas Tech, and 259 to UCF and a backup QB.  Injuries are a problem too as they are without DL De'Marion Thomas (12 tackles), LB Jaden Yates (29 tackles) and CB Jalen Mayo (22 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) is questionable.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday night with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation in Houston.  Both offenses will get whatever the want in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +6.5

I love the spot for Boston College this week.  The Eagles are coming off a bye after two impressive performances in a row in losing efforts.  They come out of the bye highly motivated to get a victory, and I think they are a very live dog hosting Pitt this week.

Two games ago Boston College took Virginia Tech to the wire in a 21-14 loss as 14.5-point dogs.  More impressive was their 25-16 road loss as 21.5-point dogs at SMU, one of the best teams in the country.  Boston College actually outgained SMU by 104 yards and held the high-powered Mustangs offense to just 218 total yards and 3.5 per play.  This Boston College D is one of the most underrated in the country.  They have held their last four opponents to an average of 20.8 points per game.

Pitt is a tired, banged up team playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  Their last two games have been absolute wars.  They won 35-33 two weeks ago at VA Tech despite getting outgained by 204 yards by the Hokies in one of the most misleading finals of the season.  And last week they lost 21-17 at home to UNC as 3.5-point favorites.

Off those two wars, and with their biggest game of the season against Miami on deck next week, this is the classic sandwich spot for Pitt.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Boston College this week as they were in their last two games against VA Tech and UNC, and certainly not as motivated as they will be next week against Miami.

Pitt lost star QB Mason Heintschel in that win over VA Tech two weeks ago.  He is irreplaceable with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  His backup Holden Geriner isn't nearly as good, and he is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt with a 2-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his place thus far.  Pitt will also likely be without star RB Ja'Kyrian Turner.  Given the situation with BC off a bye and the sandwich spot for Pitt coupled with the injuries, this line should be much closer to PK.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Army OVER 54.5

These service academies struggle when facing high-octane passing attacks like FAU because they don't have the personnel to practice against it.  FAU lit up Navy for 386 passing yards in a 38-30 win earlier this season that saw 68 combined points. The Owls will light up this Army defense, too.  Army hasn't seen anything like this all season facing several weak passing offenses in Bryant, USF, Temple, LA Tech and Tulane thus far.

This Army defense is down a couple notches this season and isn't the usual solid Black Knights defense.  They are allowing 6.6 yards per play this season, which ranks 128th of 138 teams in the country.  That's real poor when you consider the schedule of opposing offenses thus far, which is very weak.  FAU can name its number against this Army defense Saturday.

FAU ranks 2nd in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  The Owls are scoring 37.2 points per game behind 304 passing yards per game.  Senior QB Caden Veltkamp has been thriving in this system again this season.  He is completing 73% of his passes for 1,425 yards with a 12-to-2 TD/INT ratio.

Army will get its points as well against a FAU defense that allowed 36.6 points per game last season.  While they are improved a little, they are still a below-average defense.  Army leads the country in rushing averaging 333.2 rushing yards per game, doing it better than every other service academy thus far.  FAU ranks 113th allowing 6.1 yards per play and 106th allowing 4.6 yards per rush.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

This total of 54.5 is too short for a game involving FAU.  The Owls are 4-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was against FIU which has an elite defense and is a rival, so familiarity and weather played a part.  Army allowed 459 yards and 8.8 per play to Tempo and 503 yards and 8.8 per play to FAU.  This is a bad Army defense, and the Black Knights will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia State/James Madison OVER 57

Two elite offenses square off in Sun Belt play Saturday in what should be a shootout.  James Madison is playing with a lot more pace this season ranking 28th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.  This despite winning a lot of games in blowouts during its 6-0 start.

The Dukes are averaging 41.8 points per game, 452.2 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.  They take on a Georgia State offense that can match them, and a Georgia State offense that is the best unit they have seen this season.  The Panthers average 39.4 points per game, 468.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play during their 4-1 start.

Georgia State has played a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  Even the best offense they faced in UCF isn't very good, and UCF put up 44 points on them.  James Madison just showed some leaks last week in allowing 465 yards and 7.2 yards per play to Georgia Southern.  Both defenses will get exposed by the best offenses they have faced this season this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State +12.5

Georgia State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Panthers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at UCF by 14 as 17.5-point dogs.  They actually outgained UCF by 95 yards in defeat and deserved better.

They opened with a 59-10 win over North Carolina A&T as 28.5-point favorites.  They beat Kennessaw State 31-17 as 7-point road underdogs.  They crushed Northern Illinois 35-14 as 10.5-point home favorites.  And their most impressive performance came in a 42-10 home win over Old Dominion as 2.5-point favorites.  They outgained ODU by 324 yards and held them to 146 yards.

The spot really favors the Panthers, who are coming off a bye and have two full weeks to prepare for James Madison.  This is their chance to stake their claim at a Sun Belt title, and based off the numbers I think they can do it, and getting 12.5 points here is disrespectful.  The Panthers average 468.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 301.8 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 167 yards per game and 1.7 per play.  Those are elite numbers.

James Madison is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week after a 6-0 start.  The Dukes are ripe for the picking this week.  They got away with it last week in a narrow 27-24 win at Georgia Southern as 7.5-point favorites.  They allowed 465 yards and 7.2 yards per play to Georgia Southern.  The schedule has been extremely soft with wins over Liberty, Wagner, SDSU, ODU, Marshall and Georgia Southern.

These teams have a common opponent in Old Dominion.  While Georgia State outgained ODU by 324 yards, JMU only outgained ODU by 158 yards.  JMU is outgaining opponents by 105 yards per game this season compared to 167 yards per game for Georgia State.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially with the Panthers rested off a bye week.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn +21

I love the spot for the Auburn Tigers this week.  They have a first-year head coach in Alex Golesh who brought a lot of players with him from South Florida, but also had to implement a lot of new players to familiarize them with his complex systems.  First-year head coaches always benefit the most from bye weeks, and that will be the case for Golesh and company this week.

Georgia is in a massive letdown spot.  The Bulldogs just played their biggest game of the regular season and took care of business with a narrow 20-17 win at Alabama.  It was Kirby Smart's first road win at Alabama since becoming the head coach at Georgia.  You could tell by the locker room speeches it meant a lot to him and his players to say the least.  Now this will be the natural letdown here hosting Auburn as a 3-TD favorite.  The Bulldogs have notoriously been terrible in the big favorite role under Smart.

Golesh has to be disappointed with this Auburn offense as it has yet to fire under the up-tempo style he was accustomed to at USF.  The two weeks of practice will really benefit the offense, which is producing 400 yards per game and 5.7 per play this season.  But I've been very impressed with this Auburn defense, and that unit will keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters.  Auburn is allowing 21.4 points per game, 357.2 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  It's a very talented, underrated defense.

To compare, Auburn is holding opponents to 11 points per game below their season average defensively.  Georgia is also holding opponents to exactly 11 points per game below their season averages this season.  So these two defenses are very comparable, and closer in talent level than they get credit for.

I'm also not scared of this Georgia offense, which has key injuries at RB and WR and isn't very explosive.  Gunnar Stockton isn't making big plays down the field with his arm.  He is mostly a move the chains guy with short passes and utilizing his legs.  That's why it's difficult for Georgia to get margin on teams.  They only outgained Arkansas by 164 yards, Oklahoma by 10 yards, and Vanderbilt by 178 yards.  Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC, too.

Georgia has won 9 straight meetings with Auburn.  But seven of those nine meetings were decided by 21 points or fewer.  And the last three were close with Georgia winning by 10, 18 and 7 points.  The yardage numbers were close too as the Tigers were only outgained by 19 yards last season and by 44 yards two seasons ago by Georgia.  This game will be much closer than the Bulldogs bargained for.  Bet Auburn Saturday.