Frank Sawyer

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.

FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.