Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 4/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday afternoon was with Matt Fitzpatrick in Round One head-to-head props versus Patrick Cantlay. Fitzpatrick is the defending champion of this tournament — and he loves this course with his personal affinity for Harbour Town tracing back to his childhood when he would play here when his family traveled to Hilton Head on holiday. In his last six appearances at this event, he has four top 15 results — and he has averaged a 68.69 score at the Par 71 course. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five PGA Tour events after his tie for 22nd place last week at the Masters — and he has accomplished this despite only realizing last week that he had been playing with an added weight in his driver for practice earlier in the year. Cantlay finished in a tie for 22nd place at the Masters last week despite benefitting from two holes out during the week. He simply is not in great form right now with only one top-ten finish in his eight starts this year. He has only one win on the PGA Tour in the last three seasons. He is struggling with his Ball-Striking — he ranks just 72nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 149th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season after ranking third and 16th in those metrics respectively last season. Going into the Masters, he had lost strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six of his previous seven tournaments — and he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green in four of his last five events. For more comparison, he lost strokes versus the field from Tee-to-Green only four times in 2022 through 2023. Take Fitzpatrick (7140) versus Cantlay (7139) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer has CA$HED THREE 1ST PLACES in his last 17 Golf Betting Reports after CA$HING Jake Knapp at 40-1 in February at the PGA Mexico Open — his 13th FIRST PLACE WINNER in his last 58 Golf Reports — his regulars now enjoying over 61 WEEKS OF FREE ROLLS for 2024 and beyond! Frank was a WINNING 2-1 with his Masters prop bets last week (but it was still disappointing with none of his three golfers in contention on the weekend after making the cut). Frank’s RBC Heritage Betting Report this week includes his BEST BET WAGER to win; his TOP OVERLAY BET that identifies the most value; and his LONG SHOT BET of a golfer outside the top ten favorites — along with BONUS HEAD-TO-HEAD PROP BETS with his three favorite golfers! BANK on Frank!

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help most of the 69 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Last year, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts nine holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 54 professionals who competed at the Masters last week. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite with him being listed at +450 at DraftKings. I had several reasons why I was not taking Scheffler last week at the Masters — let’s just say that if you ever see me endorsing a money-line favorite at +500 or less in one of these reports, please call the police because I have probably been kidnapped. You don’t need my work and expertise to take the top money-line favorite. I will offer a brief reminder that even Tiger Woods at his prime was not winning more than one out of every four of the tournaments he competed in. More numbers for this week: The last 23 winners of a major championship have not even been in contention in their next tournament — and the last six winners of a major championship who chose to compete the very next week have not fared better than a tie for 15th place with two of those champions missing the cut. Finally, Scheffler has a baby due at any time — so his withdrawal from the tournament is very much a possibility (as it was last week).

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7134) versus Akshay Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:25 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We were on Lowry last week at the Masters — but he disappointed with a tie for 43rd place. I have invested in him a few times this season — and I’m not jumping off just because of a subpar week. Trying to play roulette playing off the prior’s week results is Fool’s Gold. I tend to continue to invest in golfers when the underlying numbers present strong value relative to the odds — and this formula has been successful. Lowry led the field last week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and I would have doubled my personal bet last week if I had known that it would play out that way. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter — and he lost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Two things to consider about putting. First, it is the Shots-Gained category with the most variance from week-to-week. Second, smaller greens help mediocre putters and put great putters at a relative disadvantage. It will always be better for a golfer like Lowry to get out their putter after reaching the green in regulation than even a great chipper missing the green in regulation. I liked Lowry last week because of his late Thursday tee-time as well — but that handicapping did not work out with the entire tournament delayed two hours on Day One which neutralized any potential disadvantage for those pros teeing off in the morning. That all said, the underlying numbers still look fantastic for Lowry — and it would be the regret I never forget if I jumped off him now at the +4000 price simply because of the previous week. In his previous start on the PGA Tour, Lowry was tied for 19th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He previously followed up a tie for fourth place two weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches at the PGA National with a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Lowry is playing with tremendous confidence right now while ranking in the top ten players in the world rankings. He gained +5.4 strokes in Approach-the-Green on average in those previous three tournaments going into the Masters. For 2024, he ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Total. Three of the four golfers who placed in the top four last year at this tournament finished in the top seven for the week in Approach-the-Green. The last nine winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with five of those winners finishing in the top three in that category. Lowry also leads the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy and Fairways Hit. Furthermore, he leads the tour in Approach-the-Green Proximity if playing from the rough — so when he does miss, he recovers. Lowry has posted three top-ten finishes at Harbour Town since 2019 with two third-place results. Perhaps most importantly, he has lost strokes versus the field with his putter only once during that span. The 37-year-old fits the profile for those that win here. The last three winners here played the previous week at the Masters. The last five winners had previously made the cut at this tournament at least twice with at least 23rd place or better finish.

Lowry is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. This was the exact same prop we invested in last week at the Masters — and despite Lowry ranking third on the tour in Round One Scoring and Bhatia ranking 69th in that category, Bhatia outshot Lowry by a stroke for the first round before falling to 35th for the tournament. After surviving Denny McCarthy’s furious comeback attempt two Sundays ago to win the PGA Valero Open, Bhatia may be overdue for the proverbial emotional and physical letdown this week. The 22-year-old is happy to collect paychecks — he has not taken a week off since THE PLAYERS championship last month so this will be his sixth straight week playing on the PGA Tour. THE PLAYERS was the final week of Conference Tournaments in college basketball — and I’m exhausted (actually, I have recovered over the last week but only after the taxes were completed). Imagine playing four rounds of golf each week without the benefit of a golf cart. Bhatia was dealing with a wrenched shoulder after his aggressive fist-pump when he won the Houston Open in that playoff. Perhaps that explains why he lost -4.5 strokes in Approach-the-Green last week? Or he may simply be tiring — but still scratching out paydays because he is 22? Good for him! But he tends to perform better at driver-heavy courses with wide-open fairways. Deftness with chipping and playing out of bunkers is also a critical component of success at this golf course — and Bhatia ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He did miss the cut in his previous three tournaments including at THE PLAYERS Championship last month which is considered the “fifth” major before his recent good run. He missed the cut at Harbour Town in his professional debut here last year. Take Lowry (7134) versus Bhatia (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.