Frank Sawyer

At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco Giants (972) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (971). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (109-57) returns home to host the final game of this National League Divisional Series. Los Angeles (109-58) evened this best-of-five series at 2-2 with their 7-2 victory at home on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has bounced back to win 38 of their last 55 games after a loss. They have also won 19 of their last 24 games after an off day. They get the advantage of hosting this climactic final game of this series where they have won 53 of their last 81 games at home with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Manager Gabe Kapler gets to use his ace in Logan Webb tonight. The right-hander had an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game One of this series — and the Giants have won 11 of their last 12 games when he is following up an outing where he did not allow more than one earned run. When pitching at home at Oracle Park this season, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) in the regular season. San Francisco has won 13 straight home games with Webb their starting pitcher. Los Angeles has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. They have also lost 14 of their last 21 games when priced in the +/- 125 price range. Manager Dave Roberts has chosen to use Corey Knebel as their opener before turning to Julio Urias — but that might be a dangerous move in a crucial game tonight. Knebel has opened four times this season — but while he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season, those numbers rise to a 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP when he is on the road. Urias has a 20-6 record this season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. I do take note that both his SIERA and xFIP project regression with 3.64 and 3.73 marks moving forward.

FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers have lost 8 of their last 11 games in San Francisco against the Giants at Oracle Park. 10* MLB LA Dodgers-San Francisco TBS-TV Special with the San Francisco Giants (972) versus the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) (action — don’t list the starting pitchers just in case Roberts changes his mind about using Urias in the first inning). Best of luck — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers held the Dolphins to just 301 yards in their blowout victory on Sunday. Miami managed only 39 rushing yards in that contest. Tampa Bay led the NFL in rushing defense last season by holding their opponents to just 80.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game. This season, the Buccaneers have been even better by holding their opponents to just 46 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay is making teams one-dimensional on offense — allowing their pass rush to take over. The Buccaneers have held their last two opponents to just 17 points in each contest. Tom Brady is dealing with a nagging injury with his throwing hand which may slow down their passing attack and/or compels them to run the ball more. The Eagles allow 142 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — and Tampa Bay has played 39 of their last 62 games Under the Total against teams who allow at least 130 rushing YPG. Philadelphia’s defense is playing better this season — after allowing 363.1 total YPG last season, they have held their five opponents this year to 336.8 total YPG for an improvement of 26.3 net YPG. The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread wins -- and they have also played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory when playing at home. The Eagles return home where they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Buccaneers score 33.4 PPG, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Philadelphia Eagles (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (109-58) evened this best-of-five series at 2-2 with their 7-2 victory at home on Tuesday. San Francisco (109-57) returns home to host the final game of this National League Divisional Series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have held the Giants to two runs or less in the last three games of this series after their opening game 4-0 shutout loss (against Webb). Not only has Los Angeles played 38 of their last 62 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in their last game, but they have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two runs in two straight games. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. The Dodgers have also played 15 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an off day. The day of rest will help the Los Angeles bullpen be ready for this game — a showdown in which manager Dave Roberts will use every healthy starting pitcher at his disposal in this single-elimination contest. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season — and they have a 2.66 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP in their last seven games. Roberts has made a surprise decision this afternoon to use Corey Knebel as an opener before turning to Urias as his bulk pitcher. It is a crafty move to keep Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler from stacking his lineup with right-handed batters. Knebel is a good reliever — he has a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season. Urias should then get the ball after holding the Giants to just one run in five innings on Saturday in Game Two of this series. The left-hander had a 20-6 record in the regular season with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 32 starts. He has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 regular season starts. Additionally, in his last 12 starts since the beginning of August, Urias has a 1.77 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In his six starts against San Francisco this season, Urias has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. And in his carer 32 1/3 innings in the playoffs, Urias has a 3.06 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He should pitch well tonight. He faces a Giants team that is scoring 3.6 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .197 Batting Average, .251 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .574. San Francisco has not scored more than four runs in four straight games. They are hitting just .208 in their last five games — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a five-game stretch where they did not have a batting average over .225. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 15 games after an off day, they have played 11 of their games Under the Total. San Francisco’s bullpen has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this season — and they have posted a 2.92 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP against NL West foes. They counter with Webb who has an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings with ten strikeouts in Game One of this series. When pitching at home at Oracle Park this season, he has a 1.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) in the regular season. He faces a Dodgers team that has played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has been shut out twice in this series — they really miss the injured Max Muncy. Both managers will suspect runs will be hard to come by tonight — and they will manage accordingly. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* MLB National League West Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (971) and the San Francisco Giants (972) listing both starting pitchers Corey Knebel and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.