Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 6/1:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Houston Astros with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels listing both starting pitchers Ronel Blanco and Reid Detmers. Houston (32-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 8-2 loss at home against Minnesota yesterday. The Astros have still won 15 of their last 20 games — and they have won 50 of their last 70 games after losing their last game. Houston has also won 36 of their last 52 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. Los Angeles (30-27) has won two of their last three games after their 12-5 win in Chicago against the White Sox yesterday. But the Angels have lost 4 straight games after scoring five or more runs in their last game. And in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning record, Los Angeles has lost 27 of these games. Take Houston with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on an 18 of 24 (75%) NBA run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays in these playoffs after his 2-0 NBA S-W-E-E-P on Monday with Miami and the Heat-Celtics Under to continue Hollywood Sports’ 36 of 49 (73%) NBA featured plays winning streak! Now Frank furthers his 41 of 63 (65%) NBA playoff sides run with featured plays with the Heat-Nuggets ATS winner on ABC-TV at 8:30 PM ET! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

Frank is on a 111 of 177 (63%) All-Sports run with featured plays after losing his MLB play on the White Sox yesterday! Frank has Hollywood Sports on a 20 of 22 (91%) NBA Playoffs Totals run with featured plays after CA$HING the Miami-Boston Under on Monday to further his 27 of 32 (84%) NBA TOTALS TEAR with featured plays — and now he has tonight’s Miami-Boston O/U winner! CA$H-IN Frank’s Thursday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals. Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets will be ready and rested for this opening contest with the benefit of nine full days of rest after closing out their series with the Lakers. Denver will likely push the pace to challenge a Heat team that only had two full days of rest before tonight’s game. As it is, the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. Denver has an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.0 in the postseason. And in their last two games against Miami in the regular season, they posted Adjusted Offensive Efficiency marks of 123 and 124 despite Nikola Jokic playing only 70 of the 96 minutes in those two games. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has a dilemma regarding how to defend Jokic: does he deploy Bam Adebayo against him and risk his big man getting into foul trouble or does he use bench players like Cody Zeller, Kevin Love (oy), or Haywood Highsmith to attempt to guard him and leave Adebayo as a rim protector? It may take Spoelstra a game to find the best answer to the Jokic problem. And while Miami likes to deploy zone defenses, Jokic crushes zone defenses with his one-on-one skills along with passing skills. They have played 28 of their last 43 games at home Over the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Miami played their best defensive game in their last seven games by holding the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting on Monday. The Heat have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by double-digits. Miami has also played 4 straight Overs when playing with two days of rest. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 straight games against each other Over the Total — and they have played 4 straight Overs when playing in Denver. The Nuggets swept both regular-season games against the Heat this season — and Miami has played 24 of their last 33 games Over the Total when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (513) and the Denver Nuggets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513) in Game One of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (65-32) has won six games in a row after completing their four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers after a 113-111 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog on May 22nd. Miami (57-45) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 103-84 victory as a 7.5-point underdog at Boston in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: It may take the Heat a game to get situated in this series after a long and grueling seven-game series with the Celtics that just ended earlier this week. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win by 10 or more points. Miami held the Celtics to just 39.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. The Heat have not allowed more than 104 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after not allowing more than 105 points in two straight games. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after losing two of their last three games. The Heat have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing with two days of rest. Denver rallied from a 73-58 halftime score to beat the Lakers in the fourth game of that series — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their previous game. The Nuggets should benefit from the extended break they earned from the four-game sweep as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with three or more days of rest. They get the first two games at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on their home court. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, Denver has covered the point spread 13 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets swept the two games between these two teams in the regular season with the last game being a 112-108 upset win by Denver on the road as a 1-point underdog on February 13th. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite. 10* NBA Miami-Denver ABC-TV Special with the Denver Nuggets (514) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +3500 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Matsuyama has dealt with some neck and back issues — but he seems to have overcome these physical setbacks. Since a tie for fifth place at THE Players Championship in March, he has registered six straight top-31 results. Despite settling for 29th place at the PGA Championship, he put up great underlying numbers. He gained +1.9 strokes Off-the-Tee, another +4.1 strokes in Approach the Green, and +4.5 strokes Around the Green. What held Matsuyama back at Oak Hills two weeks ago was his putting — but he prefers Bentgrass putting surfaces and has putted well here in the past. Not only did Matsuyama win the 2014 edition of this tournament, he has 5th place, 6th place, and 13th place results in his seven trips. This course fits his skill sets since he is so good with his irons. He gained +5.1 strokes in the approach in his previous start at the Bryon Nelson — and 13 of the last 15 winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in that metric for the week and five of the top six finishers last year were in the top-ten in approach. Matsuyama also ranks 12th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and the last five winners of this tournament finished first or second in that category for the week. Matsuyama is linked with Jordan Spieth in Round One head-to-head props. Spieth may be dealing with a left wrist injury as he has missed the cut in two of his last three events after not playing the weekend last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. After not making the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, he settled for a tie for 29th place at the PGA Championship. Spieth is considered one of the best ball strikers on the tour — but the numbers are not bearing that out this season. He ranks just 31st and 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is 78th in Bogey Avoidance. Furthermore, Spieth is just 65th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has seven  top-20s in his ten appearances at Muirfield Village but his form is off entering June. Take Matsuyama (7132) versus Spieth (7131) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7571 yards. This is the third event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. The fairways are wide but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The 120 professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. The greens consistently rank in the top-ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This tournament is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour. After last year’s average score was 73.064 per round, the last five editions of this event have seen an average score of +1 over par at 73.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +2500 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Since a tie for 34th place at the Masters, Hatton has rattled off four-straight top-19 or better finished with two top-five results. He comes off a tie for 15th place at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. He has seven top-20 finishes in his last 11 tournaments while averaging +6 Shots-Gained versus the field in Tee-to-Green. Hatton ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and the last three winners at this event led the field in that metric. In his last three tournaments, he has averaged +3.5 Strokes-Gained versus the field in Approach the Green and +1.7 Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Hatton ranks 10th on the tour in Approach the Green. He tends to do well on difficult courses that are not birdy tests. This is just the second time he has played in this event — but he did finish in a toe for 33rd place in 2019. Hatton is linked with Xander Schauffele in Round One head-to-head props. Hatton is playing better than Schauffele right now. In the last nine major championships or elevated events on the PGA Tour, Hatton is averaging +1.92 Shots-Gained: Total versus the field. Schauffele is averaging +1.71 Shots-Gained: Total versus the field in his last nine major championships and elevated events. In theory, the wider fairways should help Schauffele since he ranks 119th in Driving Accuracy. Of course, if he misses the fairway, he will still be in trouble despite his being one of the best professionals in the world with his irons. But it is his play wedges that worry me for this tournament which is probably the weakest part of his game. Schauffele ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks 45th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage — and that is an ominous sign when facing the most difficult sand traps on the tour this week. Schauffele has good — but not great — results at this tournament with four made cuts in his five trips with four top-20s. Take Hatton (7133) versus Schauffele (7134) in Round One head-to-head props — and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.