Frank Sawyer

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army outgained Hawai’i by +46 net yards but managed to lose the game — although allowing a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown reversed what could have been a 45-38 score late in the 4th quarter. The Black Knights did rush for 411 yards in that game —and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after rushing for at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. This Army team has improved on offense as the season has continued — they have generated at least 500 yards of offense in three straight games while averaging 47.0 PPG along with 575.2 total YPG in those games. But the Black Knights need to play better on defense after surrendering 492 yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Army has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Black Knights do have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. This was a disappointing season for an Army team that returned eleven starters from last year’s group that finished 11-2 after winning their final nine games. Monken has made this program into a juggernaut as they had won 29 games in their previous three seasons. The Black Knights endured four close losses decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime loss at Michigan. But a victory over Navy offers this team an opportunity to salvage their season. Army is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December. The Black Knights are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Navy enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin against the Cougars but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Midshipmen have played five straight games where at least 66 combined points were scored, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Navy is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen have slipped on defense to close out this season — they have allowed 40.3 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG over their last three contests. Navy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. Additionally, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Army has won the last three meetings between these two teams — and the seniors will be motivated to graduate with an undefeated record against the Midshipmen. Navy will be very motivated to end their losing streak to the Black Knights — but this should be a close game with Army having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Together, these team trends produce our specific 58-17-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.