Frank Sawyer

At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. THE SITUATION: Colorado (68-56) has won four straight games — as well as eight of their last nine contests — with their 4-2 win in Atlanta on Sunday. San Diego (49-78) has lost six of their last seven games with their 4-3 loss to Arizona on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES MINUS THE -1.5 RUN-LINE: The Padres are in the tank at this point of the season having gone just 12-30 in the second-half of the season. San Diego has lost 4 of their last 5 games after a loss — and they have lost 19 of their last 26 games after an off-day. The Padres have also lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Erlin who is 2-3 with a 3.33 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP as a starter and out of the pen this year. The left-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 4.55 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .279 in 31 2/3 innings of work. San Diego has lost 5 of their last 7 road games with Erlin on the hill. He faces a Rockies team that has won 12 of their last 14 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Colorado has won 11 of their last 15 games are allowing no more than two runs in their last game — and they have won 25 of their last 38 games after a win by at least two runs. The Rockies have also won 20 of their last 27 home games. They counter with Anderson who is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The lefty is better at home in Coors Field where he sports a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twelve starts. Colorado has won 11 of their last 18 home games with Anderson pitching as a favorite priced at least at -110. He should fare well against this Padres team that is scoring only 3.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .204 batting average along with a .271 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .627. San Diego has lost 20 of their last 26 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies are supported by an empirical situational angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 60% effective since 1997. Anderson has struggled over his last three starts with a 10.70 ERA (but his lone home start over that span saw him allow only one earned run in 6 innings of work against the Dodgers) — and National League home teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA in the 4.20 to 4.70 ERA who has an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts have then covered the -1.5 Run-Line in 170 of the last 284 situations where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado is playing good baseball right now as they are in the thick of the NL West and wildcard races. They should take care of business against the reeling Padres playing out the string. With the Rockies priced in the -175 price range, let's invest in the -1.5 Run-Line to lower the asking price. 25* MLB National League West Run-Line Blowout of the Month with the Colorado Rockies (910) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the San Diego Padres (909) listing both starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Robbie Erlin. Best of luck for us — Frank.