Frank Sawyer

At 9:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (963) and the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Dinelson Lamet. San Diego (68-83) has won three straight games with their 6-2 win over the Diamondbacks last night. The Under is then 8-3-1 in the Padres’ last 12 games against an opponent that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-2 in San Diego’s last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Lamet who is 7-7 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander’s deeper sabermetrics do call for immediate improvement in his frontline numbers with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.92 and 4.06 moving forward. Lamet has also been more effective at home where he owns a 3.59 ERA along with a 1.04 WHIP and .185 opponent’s batting average in nine starts at home as compared to his 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. The Padres have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with Lamet on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Arizona team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .236 batting average along with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .657 OPS over that span. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.

San Diego (68-83) has seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against teams that did not allow more than two runs in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-2 in the Padres’ last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They counter with Dinelson Lamet who is 7-7 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 3.59 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .185 as compared to his 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .225 opponent’s batting average in ten starts on the road. San Diego has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home with Lamet on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Arizona team that is scoring only 3.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .236 batting average along with a .292 On-Base Percentage and .657 OPS over that span. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 20* MLB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (963) and the San Diego Padres (964) listing both starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Dinelson Lamet. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:07 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (975) versus the Los Angeles Angels (976) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Ricky Nolasco. Cleveland (94-57) has won three straight games — as well as twenty-five of their last twenty-six contests — after their 6-3 victory over the Angels last night. The Indians have then won a decisive 41 of their last 51 games after a win. Cleveland has also won 10 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Tomlin who is 9-9 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season. That bloated ERA does not necessarily scare me off considering that his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.22 and 4.08 moving forward. Furthermore, the right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 4.68 ERA along with a strong 1.13 WHIP in ten starts as compared to his 5.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in thirteen starts at home. The Indians have won 11 of their last 14 road games with Tomlin pitching with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Angels team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Pet-Game over their last seven contests with a .212 batting average along with a .287 On-Base Percentage and .661 OPS over that span.

Los Angeles (76-74) has 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Angels have now lost nine straight games against the Indians — and they have then lost 36 of their last 60 games at home when having lost at least four straight games against their opponent. They counter with Ricky Nolasco who is 6-14 with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. The Angles have lost 9 of their last 12 home games with Nolasco on the mound. He faces an Indians team that is hitting well over their last seven games — Cleveland has a .279 batting average along with a .354 On-Base Percentage and .797 OPS over that span. The Indians have won 36 of their last 51 games against right-handed starting pitchers. And in Cleveland’s last 62 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, they have won 44 of these games. 20* MLB Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Cleveland Indians (975) versus the Los Angeles Angels (976) listing both starting pitchers Josh Tomlin and Ricky Nolasco. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Atlanta Braves (962) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Sims and Gio Gonzalez. Washington (91-59) has won two straight games with their 4-2 victory in the first game of this series. The Nationals have now played five straight games that finished Under the Total (due in large part to their cold bats — more on that below) — and they have then lost a decisive 84 of their last 136 games after playing at least their last four games Under the Total. Furthermore, Washington has lost 31 of their last 55 games with the Total set in the 9 to 9.5 range. They give the ball to Gonzalez who is 14-7 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics call for immediate regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA bump up to 4.38 and 4.21 respectively moving forward. Furthermore, the left-hander has not been quite as good on the road where he has a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in fifteen starts as compared to his 2.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in fourteen starts at home. Furthermore, the Nationals have lost 8 of their last 9 road games with Gonzalez pitching as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. He faces an Atlanta team that hits lefties well. The Braves score 5.2 Runs-Per-Game against left-handed starting pitchers with a .287 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .794. The Braves have also won 4 straight games against left-handed starting pitchers.

Atlanta (67-82) has won 23 of their last 41 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Braves will be playing their twelfth straight game against NL East rivals tonight — and they have won 25 of their last 43 games after playing at least six straight games against NL East opponents. They give the ball to their rookie pitcher Luke Sims who is 2-5 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season. Sims has been much better at home where he owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .238 opponent’s batting average in three starts (six games) at home as compared to his 7.40 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and .330 opponent’s batting average in four starts (five games) on the road. As mentioned above, the Nats’ bats are cold right now as they are scoring only 2.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .231 batting average along with a .285 On-Base Percentage and .623 OPS during that span. Lastly, the Braves are supported by a historical angle specific to Run-Line that has been 69% effective since 1997. Sims is making his first start on the mound since September 2nd — and home underdogs who with a team batting average in the .255 to .269 batting average (Atlanta: .264 batting average) facing a National League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less have then covered the +1.5 Run-Line in 58 of the last 84 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National League East Run-Line Underdog of the Year with the Atlanta Braves (962) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Washington Nationals (961) listing both starting pitchers Lucas Sims and Gio Gonzalez. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston Red Sox (969) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (970) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Wade Miley. Boston (87-64) has won five of their last six games with their 1-0 win over the Orioles last night. The Red Sox have now won 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record. Boston has also won 8 of their last 10 games against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to their ace Sale who is 16-7 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season. The deeper sabermetrics indicate that the left-hander should actually being seeing even better numbers with his SIERA projecting an ERA of 2.61 moving forward. The Red Sox have won 5 straight road games with Sale facing a team with a losing record.

Baltimore (73-79) has slumped out of playoff contention having lost eleven of their last thirteen contests. The Orioles have lost 8 of their last 10 games after a loss. Baltimore has also lost 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record, the Orioles have lost 6 of these games. They counter with Wade Miley who is 8-13 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.70 WHIP this season. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Miley facing a team with a winning record. That is not a good sign when facing this Red Sox team that has won 7 of their last 9 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. Lastly, because Miley walks 2.8 batter per game, the Orioles fall into an empirical “play-against” angle that is specific to the Run-Line that has been 65% effective over the last five seasons. Baltimore allows only 0.46 stolen bases per game — and home underdogs that do not allow more than 0.5 stolen bases per game using a starting pitcher who allows more than 2.75 bases-on-balls per game have then failed to cover the +1.5 Run-Line (when then priced in the -165 to +135 price range) in 47 of the last 72 situations where these conditions applied. 10* MLB Boston-Baltimore ESPN Run-Line Special with the Boston Red Sox (969) minus the -1.5 Run-Line versus the Baltimore Orioles (970) listing both starting pitchers Chris Sale and Wade Miley. Best of luck for us — Frank.