Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 3/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with Saint Joseph’s minus the points versus Davidson in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Saint Joseph’s (21-10) has won six games in a row after their 88-76 victory against La Salle as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. The Hawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a win against a fellow Atlantic 10 rival. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Davidson (20-12) has won four of their last five games after their 64-59 victory against Loyola-Chicago as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 130s. Take Saint Joseph’s minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on a 6 of 9 (67%) college basketball run despite not winning with Texas A&M last night to maintain their current 11 of 17 (65%) college basketball streak! Frank DELIVERED his 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year on Tuesday with the Siena-Merrimack Under to help further his 5 of 7 (71%) CBB Game of the Year run — and now he furthers his 43 of 68 (63%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with a 25* CBB Conference Total of the Year for Friday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Davidson Wildcats (803) and the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (804) in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Davidson (20-12) has won four of their last five games after their 64-59 victory against Loyola-Chicago as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday in the second round of this tournament. Saint Joseph’s (21-10) has won six games in a row after their 88-76 victory against La Salle as a 10.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Davidson has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Wildcats typically play in rock fights. On offense, they rank 281st of the 365 Division I teams by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession. They are also stingy on defense. One of my favorite analytics is to evaluate defensive time of possession numbers. Davidson ranks sixth in the nation as their opponents average 18.9 seconds per possession — and their conference opponents are averaging 19.2 seconds per possession. Overall, the Wildcats average 63.8 adjusted possessions per game, the 24th fewest in the nation. On the road, Davidson is surrendering -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions, the 21st best improvement relative to home split stats. They rank third in the nation by holding their opponents to 28.3% shooting from behind the arc when playing on the road. They rank 31st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They also score -4.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road. One area that holds the Wildcats back is that they rank last in the nation by making only 64.0% of their free throws — and that shooting percentage drops to 61.2% when playing on the road. Davidson has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, they have played 39 of their last 57 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s since Matt McKillop became their head coach, including 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when the Total is in the 130s. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130s under McKillop. Saint Joseph’s has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow Atlantic 10 rival. The Hawks nailed 40.0% of their shots from behind the arc yesterday, which was the best long-distance shooting effort in their last nine contests. And while the Explorers only made 40.3% of their shots in that game, that was still Saint Joseph’s worst defensive effort in their last 10 games. The Hawks rank second in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank 29th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage off 47.4%. They also rank 16th in the nation in putting their opponents on the free throw line. On the road, they are surrendering -3.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions than when playing at home. They rank 38th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But Saint Joseph’s scores -3.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. Their effective field goal percentage of 47.9% ranks 293rd. The Hawks have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 

FINAL TAKE: Davidson wants to avenge a 70-67 upset loss at home against Saint Joseph’s as a 1.5-point favorite on March 4th. With McKillop as their head coach, the Wildcats have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games on the road Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Davidson Wildcats (803) and the Saint Joseph’s Hawks (804). Best of luck for us — Frank.