Frank Sawyer

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) returns 14 starters from a team that finished 9-4 last season culminating in a 16-15 victory against Toledo in the Arizona Bowl. Arizona State (0-0) has ten starters back from their group that finished 3-9 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS:   WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils suffered through their second straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. The offense will be led by Sam Leavitt who transferred in from Michigan State after Jaden Rashada left the program for Georgia in the spring. The redshirt freshman has potential but did not get much playing time for the Spartans last season. Both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing so with many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season. Arizona State has lost and failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference FBS opponents. They are also 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home against FBS foes. Furthermore, the Sun Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have gone 4-4 in their last eight games on the road against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of those 8 games. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Wyoming Cowboys (183) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).

FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.