Frank Sawyer is on a 19 of 29 (66%) All-Sports featured plays run -- and now he furthers his 4 of 5 (80%) NFL Game of the Month mark with his 25* AFC East Game of the Month for Thursday Night Football!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs Thunder | Thunder -8 -110 | Free | 92-121 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Lakers vs Thunder | OVER 228½ -115 | Top Premium | 92-121 | Loss | -115 | Show |
| Northern Illinois vs UMass | OVER 43 -115 | Free | 45-3 | Win | 100 | Show |
| Toledo vs Miami-OH | Miami-OH +4½ -107 | Top Premium | 24-3 | Loss | -107 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the New England Patriots (312). THE SITUATION: New York (2-7) pulled off their second straight upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. New England (8-2) has won seven games in a row after their 28-23 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York got to face the horrendous Cincinnati defense back on October 26th. That performance bought Justin Fields another start last week, coming off their bye — but the Jets only gained 169 yards against the Browns with Fields only throwing 11 passes for 54 yards. Now, wide receiver Garrett Wilson is out tonight with an injury. New York beat Cleveland because of their 99-yard kickoff return and their 74-yard punt return for touchdowns. Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel will adjust accordingly, knowing that the Jets’ best chance to score will be on special teams. And this is a terrible matchup for Fields, who does better against the blitz since he gets to use his legs. He ranks eighth of 33 qualifying NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per Drop Back — but when facing four or fewer pass rushers, he plummets to 32nd in that metric. Vrabel will force Fields to beat them with his arm as New England already ranks in the top bottom-ten in blitz rate. New York won’t get much from their ground game either against the Patriots' run defense that ranks ninth in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Patriots also lead the NFL by holding their opponents to -0.44 actual Rushing Yards-Per-Carry versus the expected Rushing Yards-Per-Carry (based on league data, similar to xGoals used in soccer and hockey). Sean Tucker’s 53 rushing yards last week was the first time they allowed any running back to gain at least 50 yards on the ground. I do not think this will be a Breece Hall showcase tonight. The Jets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England will be without running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver Kayshon Boutte because of injuries. The Patriots benefited from three explosive plays of 55 or more yards last week. Their expected Points using league again was only 20 against the Buccaneers. New England has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s teams going back to his time with Tennessee have played 20 of their 28 games Under the Total after an upset win. His teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 25% of their contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Thursday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). THE SITUATION: New England (8-2) has won seven games in a row after their 28-23 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-7) pulled off their second straight upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: Well, you can be sure I checked the injury report after getting burned with the late announcement that Miami (OH) quarterback DeQuan Finn would not play last night against Toledo. I diligently check for any updates on the Injured List because of situations like that (and it is one of the reasons I am not in a hurry to release football plays on a Tuesday morning). We got burned — but players getting sick or getting injured in the first quarter happens. I take the updated Injured List very seriously — and player availability is an important consideration for this game, which I will mention below. I don’t love fading double-digit underdogs, especially between division rivals. I was willing to consider it in this spot because home favorites of seven or more points playing on Thursday Night Football are 21-13-2 ATS (62%) in those last 36 situations. Admittedly, double-digit favorites playing at night are on a 51-69-3 ATS run (43%), but when those favorites are taking on divisional rivals during that stretch, they improve to 19-23-2 ATS, which is two coin flips from being 50-50. Another angle that made an impression relates to the Jets just coming off their bye week before their last game: NFL teams playing on a short week coming off a game that followed their bye week have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those last 18 circumstances. New York got to face the horrendous Cincinnati defense back on October 26th. That performance bought Justin Fields another start last week, coming off their bye — but the Jets only gained 169 yards against the Browns with Fields only throwing 11 passes for 54 yards. Now, wide receiver Garrett Wilson is out tonight with an injury. New York beat Cleveland because of their 99-yard kickoff return and their 74-yard punt return for touchdowns. Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel will adjust accordingly, knowing that the Jets’ best chance to score will be on special teams. And this is a terrible matchup for Fields, who does better against the blitz since he gets to use his legs. He ranks eighth of 33 qualifying NFL quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per Drop Back — but when facing four or fewer pass rushers, he plummets to 32nd in that metric. Vrabel will force Fields to beat them with his arm as New England already ranks in the top bottom-ten in blitz rate. New York won’t get much from their ground game either against the Patriots' run defense that ranks ninth in Run Defense DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Patriots also lead the NFL by holding their opponents to -0.44 actual Rushing Yards-Per-Carry versus the expected Rushing Yards-Per-Carry (based on league data, similar to xGoals used in soccer and hockey). Sean Tucker’s 53 rushing yards last week was the first time they allowed any running back to gain at least 50 yards on the ground. I do not think this will be a Breece Hall showcase tonight. On the other side of the ball, an already depleted Jets defense after the trade deadline is dealing with several impactful injuries. New York already traded away cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II, along with defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Rookie (and now starting) cornerback Azareye’h Thomas is out with an injury. Starting defensive linemen Harrison Phillips and Will McDonald IV are both questionable. It’s getting thin. Credit to rookie head coach Aaron Glenn for getting his team to rally and play hard after the trade deadline — and he used the bye week well. But the short week is doing him no favors. As it is, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games played on a short week. They have failed to cover the point in 27 of their last 39 games after a straight-up win, including five straight games after a win at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against fellow AFC East rivals. New England will be without running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver Kayshon Boutte because of injuries — but rookie TreVeyon Henderson is a great talent who is stepping up, and Mack Hollins had a great game at wide receiver last week. Drake Maye is an MVP candidate — and he ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per Drop Back. The Patriots rank eighth in EPA per play on offense and seventh in EPA per play on defense. And I have faith that this team will squeeze the life out of the Jets because that is what Vrabel’s teams do. This season, when New England takes a lead of seven or more points, they have covered the point spread in 7 of those 8 occasions — and Vrabel’s teams are 51-22-1 ATS if they take a lead of seven or more points.
FINAL TAKE: In Vrabel’s head coaching career, going back to his time with Tennessee, his teams are 27-16-1 ATS in their 44 games against teams below .500. The Patriots have won all six of their games this year against teams not winning at least .500 of their games — and the average winning margin in those games is +13.2 PPG. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the New York Jets (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.