Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 3/22:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with Virginia plus the points versus Tennessee. Virginia (30-5) has won five of their last six games after their 82-73 victory against Wright State as an 18.5-point favorite on Friday. The Cavaliers are getting the points despite being higher-seeded as a three — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting the points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court. Tennessee (23-11) has won two of their last three games after a 78-56 victory against Miami (OH) as a 12.5-point favorite on Friday. The Volunteers hav failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range Take Virginia plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports improved their 13 of 19 (67%) CBB Game of the Year run by JUST WINNING their 25* CBB Round of 32 Total of the Year with the Kentucky/Iowa State Under! Frank is on a 12 of 17 (71%) college basketball run that fuels his 19 of 29 (66%) CBB winning streak! Now Frank furthers his 13 of 18 (72%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides run with his 25* CBB Round of 32 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year still on deck for Sunday! DO NOT MISS OUT! 

At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (821) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (822) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: St. John’s (29-6) has won seven straight games after their 79-53 victory against Northern Iowa as a 10.5-point favorite on Friday. Kansas (24-10) has won three of their last four games after their 68-60 victory against Cal-Baptist as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California. 

REASONS TO THE RED STORM MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas held the Lancers to just a 23.5% shooting percentage from behind the arc, which was the best perimeter defensive effort in their last six contests. But the offensive struggles for head coach Bill Self’s squad as they only made 21.1% of their 3-pointers. The Jayhawks only shot 40.0% from the field, which was actually the best shooting performance in their last three games. They only rank 57th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and in their last ten games, their effective goal percentage of 45.3% is the 11th worst in the nation over that stretch. The conventional wisdom narrative on this team is that future NBA lottery pick Darryn Peterson has not been reliable enough to stay on the court, given multiple injuries and frequent cramping issues. But he played in all seven of their final regular season games — logging 30 or more minutes in five of those games — but Kansas lost four of those seven games while ranking 100th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 38th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over that stretch. Despite somehow handing Arizona their first loss of the season, the Jayhawks problems are much deeper than simply getting consistent playing time from Peterson. The profile of this team is one of a “generic giant” that does few things well outside of good half-court defense. They only make 34.2% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 142nd in the nation. If these shots are not falling, they lack a reliable Plan B. Self’s teams rarely force turnovers, and this year’s group ranks 340th of the 365 teams in Division I with a defensive turnover rate of 13.9%. They rank 255th in getting to the free throw line. What is surprising is that the Jayhawks only pull down 29.3% of their missed shots, ranking 225th in the nation. That is the second-lowest offensive rebounding rate for this program going back to at least 1997, which is as far back as Ken Pomeroy’s archives go (so I am not sure if Phog Allen’s Kansas teams posted worse offensive rebounding marks). On the road, the Jayhawks’ shooting inside the arc drops by 11.2% to a 45.8% mark — that is the third-worst decline in the nation to plummet to the 327th worst 2-point shooting mark on the road. Their 32.7% shooting percentage behind the arc ranks 204th. Kansas is scoring -8.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, the 28th-worst decline in the nation. They are also surrendering +4.7 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. Overall, the Jayhawks experience the 276th-worst drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing on the road. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road as an underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when playing for the second time in three days. Surprisingly for a Self-coached team, the Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road in March. St. John’s is playing at a very high level right now, with 20 victories in their last 21 contests. They lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. The Red Storm has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing for just the second time in eight days — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 games under head coach Rick Pitino when playing with one day or less of rest

At 2:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (819) and the Iowa State Cyclones (820) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Kentucky (22-13) has won three of their last four games after their 89-84 win in overtime against Santa Clara as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. Iowa State (28-7) has won four of their last five games after their 108-74 victory as a 24.5-point favorite against Tennessee State as a 24.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kentucky nailed 50.8% of their shots on Friday, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests — and their 35.7% mark from behind the arc was also the best perimeter shooting performance in their last six games. But the Wildcats have played 14 of their previous 22 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. On the road, Kentucky is scoring -5.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions, the 317th worst decline of the 365 Division I teams. They are only making 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc when playing on the road, ranking 306th in the nation. In their last 10 games on the road, they rank only 78th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. But in those ten previous games away from home, they also rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, a big improvement over their ranking of 48th on the road in that metric for the entire season. The Wildcats have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog or a pick ‘em. Iowa State made 45.8% of their shots from behind the arc on Friday, which was the best shooting effort from 3-point range in their last 13 games. Despite that effort, the Cyclones can get stuck on offense. While they rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, during a 4-4 slide in conference play, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency slipped to 84th in the nation. Iowa State has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when playing for the second time in eight days. On the road, Iowa State is scoring -3.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. But they are also surrendering -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road as well. When playing away from home, Iowa State leads the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They rank fourth in Division I by forcing turnovers in 22.3% of their opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats make 46.6% of their shots — but the Cyclones have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams that are making 45% or more of their shots. 

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total against teams that are winning 60-80% of their games — and Kentucky has played 7 straight Unders against teams that are making 80% or more of their contests. 25* CBB Round of 32 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (819) and the Iowa State Cyclones (820). Best of luck for us — Frank.