Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 9/17:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Minnesota Twins with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels listing both starting pitchers Taj Bradley and Walbert Urena. Minnesota (71-81) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 5-4 win at home against the New York Yankees yesterday. The Twins have won 6 of their last 9 games on the road after a win by one run. After completing their six-game home stand, they go back on the road where they have won 7 of their last 11 games after playing three or more games in a row at home. Los Angeles (58-84) had won two games in a row before a 7-2 loss at home against Seattle on Wednesday. The Angels have lost 31 of their last 47 games at home after losing their last game. They have also lost 39 of their last 68 games when listed in the +/- 125 price range. Take Minnesota with the money-line listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank. 

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 11 of 12 (92%) football run continued by GETTING OUT THE BROOMS ONCE AGAIN THIS NFL SEASON by CA$HING their 25* AFC West Game of the Month on Kansas City and the Broncos-Chiefs Under! Frank is also on a 10 of 14 (71%) NFL TOTALS TEAR to fuel his 31 of 47 (66%) NFL over/under streak — and now he furthers his 13 of 16 (81%) NFL run with his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with the Detroit-Buffalo O/U winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank’s 12 of 14 (86%) All-Sports run with featured plays continued last night by CA$HING his MLB play on the Boston/Texas Over last night! Frank is also on a 13 of 16 (81%) NFL run after SWEEPING Monday Night Football with Kansas City and the Broncos-Chiefs Under — and now he furthers his 8 of 9 (89%) NFL sides streak with tonight’s Detroit-Buffalo ATS winner! CA$H-IN Frank's Thursday Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (103) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-0) kicked off their season with a 31-30 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 36-31 win at Houston against the Texans as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: It’s only Week Two, but getting the updated injury assessments this afternoon is critical to making proper assessments of this game. The Lions situation is a mess with both their offensive line and their secondary. But this is the first reminder of the new football season that we bet on numbers, not teams. The Bills opened as a field goal favorite — and the market has pushed this line to the +/- 5.5-point range, which is just too much. Buffalo has injury issues of their own. Starting safety Cole Bishop is dealing with a knee and groin injury, and starting defensive tackle T.J. Sanders is dealing with a knee injury. Both are listed as questionable — and for these Thursday night games on short weeks, this listing more often results in these players not being able to play or stay on the field. The Bills surprised the Texans by playing 13 personnel with three tight ends on the field for 39% of their snaps. Every NFL team dedicated themselves to defending against this scheme after the Los Angeles Rams had so much success using it last season — so the Lions will be ready for this look tonight after seeing the Bills use it last week. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games following a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win on the road. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home when favored. Despite the impressive win against Houston, the fact remains that Buffalo perhaps missed their best window of opportunity to finally reach the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era. I am not going to overreact to one game. Kansas City was down last season, and Baltimore did not even make the playoffs. Yet after barely surviving in the wildcard round in a late comeback win at Jacksonville, they found another way to lose in the postseason in their heartbreaking 33-30 loss in overtime at Denver. In hindsight, the 2025-26 NFL season was one of transition — and Buffalo’s failure to reach the AFC Championship Game is part of that story. With Allen in tears in the locker room afterwards, after yet another playoff disappointment, it was time to move on from head coach Sean McDermott. I think he is a good coach and often gets unfairly criticized. But sometimes change is necessary for simply the sake of change. It’s just too many bad vibes in the playoffs with McDermott on the sidelines. It was time for a change as Allen turns 30 years old. But general manager Brandon Beane may have gotten too cute by promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady as their next head coach? Does he represent a symbolic break from the past culture? Beane wanted continuity on offense to remain — but does the rookie head coach have the chops to be a leader of men, which McDermott certainly was? Of course, Brady will continue to call plays on offense — and this only adds to the challenge of a rookie head coach who has never had the immense responsibility of game management. Admittedly, I did not have a great alternative out there that Beane should have hired -- I think the ideal candidate on paper was a veteran head coach on the offensive side of the ball (Jim Harbaugh would have been perfect, but they were two years too late), but the only one who fit that mold was Mike McCarthy, who seemed emotionally committed to take his dream job with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offensive coordinator is Pete Carmichael Jr., who held the clipboard for Sean Payton for years as offensive coordinator for New Orleans while Payton called the offensive plays the majority of the time. The reviews were not glowing regarding his performance running the offense by himself for Dennis Allen when the Payton regime ended with the Saints. The defense is now run by former Bills safety Jim Leonhard. While Leonhard was considered an outstanding defensive coordinator during his time in college with Wisconsin, he has never called plays at the NFL level. He has been the passing game coordinator on defense for the Broncos the last two seasons. It is a concern that he is shifting the defense to a 3-4 since most of the defensive players were drafted or acquired for a 4-2/4-2-5 look. I suspect that Leonard will still keep some 4-3/4-2-5 looks in a hybrid scheme with his preferred 3-4 — but depth at the two interior linebacker spots is now an issue. Defense has been the area holding this team back. In their last six playoff losses with Allen under center, they have surrendered 33.2 Points-Per-Game. They scored 25.5 PPG in those six playoff losses, the tops in the NFL over that span, so it is tough to blame Allen or the offense for these setbacks. The Bills need to do better in stopping the run after surrendering 136.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 28th in the NFL. They ranked second-to-last in run defense using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Injuries played a role last year as Buffalo ranked 29th in the league in adjusted games lost to injury on defense — but that does not explain six years of defensive futility in the postseason. With four starters back on their very good offensive line and wide receiver D.J. Moore acquired in a trade with Chicago to provide Allen a veteran who can play the X role, the offense should remain strong. But this is basically the same story every year — except now the Bills have a rookie defensive coordinator at the NFL level, an unproven offensive coordinator when not taking his cues from Sean Payton, and a rookie head coach who played a major role in the old regime and culture. For Detroit, starting left guard Christian Mahogany, starting center Cade Mays, and rookie starting Blake Miller are all out for this game. Detroit did sign three veteran offensive linemen in free agency in the offseason, so the situation is not a complete disaster. But the team is also missing defensive backs Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch to long-term injuries — and their secondary already took a step back in the offseason when they cut starting cornerback Terrion Arnold for his off-the-field issues. Cornerback D.J. Reed is also listed as questionable for tonight’s game. After the Saints put up 469 yards against them last week, I am expecting head coach Dan Campbell to rely heavily on his run game. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 29 times for 156 yards last week. Detroit has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Saints, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. After two straight playoff berths and NFC North titles, the Lions took a step back last season by missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record, which technically left them in last place in the division after considering the tiebreakers. This is now a team in transition — and the question has to be asked if this franchise missed their window of opportunity to reach the Super Bowl for the first time. But Detroit did rank third in the NFL in DVOA using the advanced metrics by the Football Outsiders (now at FTN) — and it was only them and the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks that ranked in the top ten in Offensive DVOA, Defensive DVOA, and Special Team DVOA. They outscored their opponents by +3.9 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +41.3 net Yards-Per-Game last season. Losing five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession played a large role. They still have elite players: Gibbs, quarterback Jared Goff, left tackle (and healthy) Penei Sewell, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. It would not be terribly surprising if this core led Detroit deep into the playoffs. Goff was spectacular last season — his 34 touchdown passes and 4564 passing yards were both the second most in the NFL. The Lions have covered the point spread in 19 of their 26 games as a single digit underdog with Goff under center. Additionally, Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Furthermore, the underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions are 24-12-1 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (103) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Buffalo Bills (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (1-0) kicked off their season with a 31-30 win in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 36-31 win at Houston against the Texans as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It’s only Week Two, but getting the updated injury assessments this afternoon is critical to making proper assessments of this game. The Lions offensive line is a mess. Starting left guard Christian Mahogany, starting center Cade Mays, and rookie starting Blake Miller are all out for this game. Detroit did sign three veteran offensive linemen in free agency in the offseason, so the situation is not a complete disaster. But the team is also missing defensive backs Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch to long-term injuries — and their secondary already took a step back in the offseason when they cut starting cornerback Terrion Arnold for his off-the-field issues. Cornerback D.J. Reed is also listed as questionable for tonight’s game. After the Saints put up 469 yards against them last week, I am expecting head coach Dan Campbell to rely heavily on his run game to slow this game down and keep Josh Allen off the field. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 29 times for 156 yards last week. The Lions have played 16 of their 26 games Under the Total after surrendering 30 or more points since Campbell became their head coach. Then there is the Jared Goff factor to consider when he is playing outside on grass fields. In his career, Goff has a 99.3 Quarterback Rating in his career 84 games on turf — but his QBR drops to 93.7 in his 68 career games on grass. The 31-year-old does play better on the road than he did early in his career — but the disparate split stats remain when playing on grass. Last season, Goff posted a 110.1 QBR and averaged 275.3 passing Yards-Per-Game from 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt in 11 games played on turf. But in his six games played on grass last season, his QBR dipped to 97.4 and he averaged just 256.0 passing YPG on 7.4 YPA. To compound the offensive line concerns for this evening, Goff ranked third in the NFL in Passing DVOA when not facing pressure — but he plummeted to 31st last season in that metric when encountering pass rush pressure. Buffalo surprised the Texans by playing 13 personnel with three tight ends on the field for 39% of their snaps. Every NFL team dedicated themselves to defending against this scheme after the Los Angeles Rams had so much success using it last season — so the Lions will be ready for this look tonight after seeing the Bills use it last week. While Buffalo had great success exposing the Houston defense last week, the Texans did control time of possession by holding the ball for 36:17 minutes of that game. It may be a challenge to move the ball in the air against this Bills’ pass defense that led the NFL by giving up only 156.9 passing YPG. This pass defense helped Buffalo rank seventh in the NFL by giving up just 293.1 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. These two teams have also played 7 of their last 8 meetings against each other Under the Total — although the last game between these teams in December of 2024 saw 90 whopping points in a 48-42 win for Buffalo. The state of the Lions’ secondary and that recent result may be persuading bettors to take the Over — but there is not too much that needs to happen that thwarts NFL games from reaching a combined score in the mid 50s. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 12 of their 19 games Under the Total on the road in the Campbell era when listed as an underdog of up to seven points — including 4 of their 6 games last season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Buffalo Bills (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.