Bryan Power

8* Houston (2:10 ET): I had the Under in this matchup last night. That it came in was not a surprise, but the Twins being the 5-2 winners did catch me a bit “off-guard.” As I’ve said many times previous to this (including in yday’s analysis), I fully expect Houston to overtake Oakland in the American League West. Just look at the respective run differentials! Only three teams in all of MLB have better YTD run differentials than the Astros (White Sox, Dodgers, Rays). So I’m calling for them to bounce back Sunday. 

Handing the baseball to Framber Valdez seems like a good idea seeing as he’s posted a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP thus far. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but considering the two teams he’s faced (Padres, Red Sox), those numbers are impressive. In four career regular season appearances vs. the Twins, Valdez has a 1.86 ERA. He also beat them in the playoffs last year when he threw five shutout innings of relief. The Astos are 3-0 off a loss in June, scoring 25 runs in the three games. So Valdez can probably count on some decent run support here as well. 

Michael Pineda will oppose Valdez on Sunday. He has a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Minnesota has been especially bad off a win this season (just 9-15), so history REALLY supports the road team bouncing back today. The Twins have lost Pineda’s last two starts and he didn’t really give them much, going just 4 ⅓  and 3 innings. He had just three strikeouts in the two games. The Twins are 0-6 after allowing 2 runs or less. 8* Houston

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. 

Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! 

Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix

8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. 

Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. 

Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks

10* England (9:00 AM ET): The first match from Group D is a rematch from the 2018 World Cup semis, a result that England will look to avenge here. The Three Lions have actually already somewhat avenged that crushing 2-1 defeat from three years ago with a win in the Nations League. But a win Sunday would be much bigger as England looks to snap an embarrassing opening match run here in the European Championships. They are winless in nine attempts to win their Euro Cup opener, a streak that I believe ends today as this is one of the best teams to come out of England in some time.

England is unbeaten in their six across all competitions and they were almost flawless in qualification for this event. I know there’s a general feeling that neither of the recent Int’l Friendly victories were all that inspiring, but they didn’t concede a single time against Austria or Romania. I think they’ll come out more aggressive here. There is a ton of firepower with this side. 

Croatia’s recent form has not been good as they have just two wins in their last six, including a 1-1 draw with Armenia and a 1-0 loss to Belgium this month. While England has yet to be successful in nine tries at winning the Euro Cup opener, they are unbeaten here at Wembley in all major tournaments. I think the home advantage is going to be huge here for The Three Lions as they look to take the full three points in this opening match. 10* England