Bryan Power

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): JMU is off one of the worst “beats” in recent memory as they, as a three-point favorite, fell “victim” to a last second three. The Dukes still won the game 95-94, but if you bet them (like I did), that was some “tough luck.” 

That one-point win (over College of Charleston) took place Saturday night. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for JMU, although they have won two of the games straight up. Three have been decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers are expecting another close tonight vs. Drexel, but I do think the Dukes break through and cover the spread in this one. They have been a strong home team all year, winning 8 of 10 games here and averaging 82.1 PPG. Each of the last two games have seen a three-pointer hit at the buzzer. The last one, as I already mentioned, cost them a cover. The previous one was even more heartbreaking as they lost 71-70 to UNC Wilmington. 

While it is a little concerning how JMU has given up 90+ points in three of its last four games, don’t look for Drexel to do anywhere close to that kind of damage at the offensive end tonight. The Dragons are off a horrible loss, as 15-point favorites, to the worst team in the league (that being William & Mary). That came at home. JMU, while shooting over 50% themselves at home this season, is limiting the opposition to 40.3% here. This is the Dukes’ fourth straight game at home and they’ve only been an underdog one time since conference play began. Drexel has only been favored once. So I see the home side covering the short number, this time. 10* James Madison

8* Northeastern (7:00 ET): These teams just met on Monday. UNC Wilmington won 74-68 as a 2.5-point underdog. What’s remarkable about that spread is UNC Wilmington entered the game with a perfect conference record. Northeastern is still winless in the CAA this season! It was also UNC Wilmington’s eighth consecutive victory against the spread and ninth win in a row overall (straight up). But all but ONE of those lined victories came as an underdog. Tonight the Seahawks are favored for just the second time since December 1st!

Pulling off four consecutive upsets, not to mention seven in your last eight games, is a remarkable achievement and that is what UNC Wilmington has done. Clearly, they have made the oddsmakers look a little foolish. But all good things must end, and now as a favorite, they are ready to be faded. Northeastern actually shot much better in the game Monday night (46.3% to 40.0%). The key was that UNCW made eight threes to N’eastern’s four and they were also +8 in FT makes. 

N’eastern actually led at the break Monday. It is telling that despite being 0-8 SU in conference play that the Huskies are only a slight dog to the first place team, on the road. UNC Wilmington’s average margin of victory in conference play is less than five points per game. They’ve yet to win by double digits and three of the wins have come by four points or less. Four of Northeastern’s conference losses have been by six points or less. This is simply a case of regression/progression to the mean. 8* Northeastern

8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. 

This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. 

The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska