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10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games.
Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far.
Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here.
Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short.
Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants