Bryan Power

9* Over Yankees/Rays (4:10 ET): Wouldn't you know, the Yankees and Rays played ANOTHER low-scoring game last night (Rays won 2-1). That's been pretty "par for the course" for both AL East sides of late. Tampa Bay is 9-1 Under its L10 games while the Yankees have been even more profitable to bet that way, going 16-1 Under their L17 games! The teams are also 5-0 Under against each other this month. I think we're due for a "market correction" when it comes to that trend as certainly, we should expect more offense from the Yankees lineup this afternoon. This is a team still averaging about 5.0 rpg for the season. The Rays have been scuffling at the plate of late, but should likewise improve offensively as they too will be facing a significantly weaker pitcher compared to last night. Take the Over. 

Tampa Bay had 10 hits yday, but could only score two runs due in large part to Kevin Kiermaier going 0 for 4. Kiermaier is 0 for 13 since his return from the DL, but it's only a matter of time. All told, the Rays left 11 runners on base last night as they ent 2 for 9 w/ RISP. As stated above, they should find greater success at the plate today as they face Sonny Gray. While Gray has been a much better pitcher in the month of June, he also had a 6.67 ERA and 5.16 ERA in May. So it's likely only a matter of time before he regresses. Gray has a 4.89 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the season (14 starts) and while he's generally been much better on the road, Tampa Bay is a team that has given him trouble recently. In four starts against them last season, Gray's ERA was 4.32. 

Rays' "starter" Wilmer Font has seen his season trajectory closely mirror that of Gray as he's seen a big improvement this month. But note how the word starter was in quotation marks. This is yet another instance of TB skipper Kevin Cash electing to go w/ what he calls an "opener," that being a reliever to start the game and go only a few innings. This approach worked yday as six Rays' pitchers limited the Yankees to just five hits. But I don't see it working agian today. The Yanks just saw him for 4+ innings on Sunday, so now they're more familiar. Font had a 11.68 ERA in April and 10.80 ERA in May before drastically reducing that number here in June. But like Gray, he's due to regress in a major way. At the same time, both offenses are ready to explode one of these days. Why not today? 9* Over Yankees/Rays

10* Under A's/White Sox (2:10 ET): Including both games of yday's doubleheader (which the teams split), the A's and White Sox have now gone Over all five times they've played this season. Going back to last year, the Over has cashed in eight straight head to head meetings. I'll call for that streak to come to an end this afternoon, however, as we've got two starters likely to bounce back from rough outings and take advantage of fatigued lineups. The good news for a Chicago team that hasn't had much of it in 2018 is that they not only won a game on Friday (snapped seven-game losing skid), but also finally held Oakland to fewer than eight runs for the first time. This will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Take the Under. 

Oakland's starter for Saturday, Daniel Mengden, has been absolutely atrocious of late. He's given up eight home runs his L3 starts, a stretch that has seen him produce an unsightly 10.05 ERA. However, be aware that before this rough stretch, he had won four straight outings while delivering a 1.20 ERA. Not sure we'll see him regain that same form necessarily, but facing the White Sox certainly helps. Chicago scored all of 16 runs during its seven-game slide going into yday and in the first game they scored only two runs. The Game 2 victory marked the 1st time since June 5th (!) that the White Sox topped five runs in a game. Over their L18 games, Chicago has been held to three runs or fewer 13 times. This is an offense that ranks in the bottom four in all of baseball in both runs scored and on base percentage. It wouldn't be the first time Mengden has held the White Sox in check this season, if he does so today. Back in April, he limited them to one run on six hits in eight innings of work. That was the beginning of a nine-start stretch for Mengden where he allowed 3 ER or fewer eight times! His WHIP is still 1.14 for the season, despite the rough June.

Dylan Covey starts here for the home side. He has the lowest ERA - by far - in the White Sox starting rotation at 2.23. He did not perform well in Cleveland Monday, but that was after allowing only three runs total (one unearned) in his previous three outings. This will be Covey's eighth start of the season and his last time out was the 1st time he allowed more than two earned runs. Unearned runs (he's been charged w/ EIGHT!) have been a problem for Covey this season, but even so, he's still 4-0 Under in the month of June. Here at Guaranteed Rate Field, Covey is a perfect 3-0 in three starts w/ a 1.42 ERA. 10* Under A's/White Sox

6* Germany (2:00 ET): There have been many shockers so far at this year's World Cup, but perhaps all pale in comparison to Germany dropping its first match, 1-0 to Mexico. Now there's a real sense of urgency for Die Mannschaft, the reigning World Cup champs, who are desperate for a win Saturday against Sweden. Given the stakes and the gap in talent here, I was positively stunned that the favorites were available at such an affordable price here. Go with Germany in a must win! 

It has been 80 years since a German team failed to make it through the Group Stage at a World Cup. So history certainly favors the favorite here. While you can certainly say Mexico outclassed and outhustled them Sunday, Joachim Loew's side had significant edges both in possession and shots on goal. Let's also be sure to recall that when it came to World Cup qualifying, Low's side was impeccable as they won all 10 matches, conceding only four goals in the process. Let us also not forget they won the Confederations Cup last year (arguably w/ a "B-squad").

Sweden won its first match, but they were also fortunate to be taking on a rather anemic South Korean side that could muster little, if anything. Truthfully, South Korea's only real chance to score came in the 92nd minute. They managed just five shots for the game, none on goal. This will be a huge step up in class for The Blue-Yellow, who are still searching for the replacement to the retired Zlatan Ibrahimovic among other departed veterans. Unlike the first match, Sweden's top-end talent will be severely outclassed here. I'm all in on the favorites in this one. 6* Germany

10* Mexico (11:00 ET): Through the first round of group play, it would be difficult to argue that any side had a more impressive performance than the one put forth by Mexico. El Tri stunned heavily favored Germany (making me look foolish in the process!), 1-0, in a real gutty performance. Now comes having to avoid the obvious letdown spot against South Korea. That shouldn't be a problem though as South Korea was blanked 1-0 in its own opening match (by Sweden) and is a team w/ minimal experience at the highest level. Most of the individual players don't play abroad. Yes, the country has qualified for every WC since 1986. But they are outgunned here as was evident by a 4-0 loss the last time these sides took the field against one another (back in '14). Back Mexico. 

Germany wasn't only the favorite to take Group F. The defending WC champs were favored to repeat here in Russia. So beating them was no small accomplishment for El Tri. To me, the only possible enemy would be themselves as they have to avoid that letdown. They were outshot 2:1 by Germany and had possession of the ball less than 40 percent of the time. But those issues should not persist against this particular opponent. In its opening game, South Korea didn't have many chances and had only five shots, none requiring a save by the goaltender! The only real scoring chance they had came in added time, in the 92nd minute.

South Korea is winless in six straight WC matches, a streak that dates back to 2010. Recent form is hardly impressive either as they are 1-3-1 their L5 matches having been held w/o a goal in the last two. They hardly impresed during Asian qualifying, basically getting here due to the process of elimination. Despite conceding just the one goal to Sweden, there are major issues defensively for the Taeguk Warriors and expect Mexico to have a field day w/ set pieces Saturday. El Tri is sound defensively (as we saw vs. Germany) and by winning that opening match, they now seem to have a clear path to the Round of 16. 10* Mexico