Bryan Power

8* Run Line LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels at +1.5. Make it 25 wins in the last 26 games for Cleveland, who prevailed 6-3 in Tuesday's series opener. I got that one wrong as did the "sharp money," which was on the Angels as well. As good as the Indians have been though, they are "due" to slow down sooner or later and this remains a very critical series for their opponent. The Halos still trail Minnesota (who also lost last night) by 1.5 games for the second Wild Card in the American League. Last night's loss was a blown opportunity to make up ground, but I still like the way this series sets up for the home team. They avoid Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco plus they have revenge for a prior series sweep (back in July). Given how well the Tribe has played, however, the run line seems like a more prudent move. 

Though they were outhit by a 2:1 margin, the Angels were able to stay close for eight innings last night. They blew a golden opportunity in the fifth when they had runners at the corners, and nobody out, but only got one runner home. It was a 3-2 game entering the ninth, but that's when Cleveland broke loose for three runs, effectively putting the game out of reach. Incredibly, the Angels are now 1-10 the L2 seasons vs. Cleveland including 0-4 in '17 (3-14 L3 seasons!). But today, they draw the "weak link" of the Indians' rotation, that being Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ a 5.04 ERA. Since returning to the rotation earlier this month, Tomlin has yet to go six full innings in any of his three starts. The team is only 11-12 w/ him on the mound this year, putting them down -6.35 units. Kluber, Carraso and Mike Clevinger have all turned profits this season, so this is the Angels' best shot - on paper - at beating Cleveland. Really, given the pitchers that they faced, tonight's line makes no sense compared to yday.

The Angels have played more one-run games (46) than any other team in the American League, so that's another reason to like the RL in this situation. They are also 42-31 off a loss this season and have dropped three in a row only three times since being swept by Cleveland in that late July series. Having Ricky Nolasco, their least profitable pitcher, on the hill may seem problematic here. But he pitched well last time out, allowing just two runs on four hits to Houston. The Angels still lost mind you, 5-2, but it was still a positive sign to see Nolasco pitch well. He allowed only three runs in 6 2/3 IP against Cleveland two months ago, another encouraging sign. The Indians are going to drop a game in the series (I feel it!), so why not tonight? 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5)

8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Curiously, the Reds have given the Cardinals plenty of trouble here in 2017, winning 9 of the 17 head to head matchups. But the tide has started to turn w/ the Cards winning three of four over the last week, including a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, 8-7. Seeing as Cincy twice blew a lead last night (including 4-0 after three innings), you have to figure they also blew their best shot at winning a game in this series. It's not like the home team has much to play for here. As for the Redbirds, this series is huge as they face not only a six-game deficit in the division, but a 2.5 game one for the second NL Wild Card. Considering they'll send out a pitcher (Luke Weaver) that just shut out the Reds six days ago, you have to like their chances tonight. 

Weaver has been huge for the Cardinals' rotation. He made his 2017 debut back on 7.27 in Arizona. It was a bit of a rocky showing as he surrendered four runs in five innings and St. Louis lost 4-0. But since then, he's been light's out. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in six straight starts, all team wins. Three times, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run. Last time out, it was just one of the unearned variety as he allowed only two hits in 6 IP against this same opponent. We're talking about a pitcher w/ a sub-1.00 WHIP here and in his L3 starts, the ERA is 0.96. With Cincinnati batting just .222 its L7 games, I see no reason why Weaver shouldn't dominate yet again. You also have to like his 50-6 KW ratio during the six-game win streak.

The Reds are simply playing out the string and have given up the most runs in all of baseball. Here they start the appropriately named Rookie Davis, who is in fact a rookie! Davis has made five starts in 2017, but none since early May. Looking at his numbers, you can see why. He posted a 7.58 ERA and 2.211 WHIP. It takes a special kind of bad to find your way out of this Reds' starting rotation, but Davis managed to do just that. After spending the summer down in Louisville (Triple A), he was recalled once that season ended. He has made one appearance out of the bullpen and "true to form," gave up two runs in two innings. There's no Billy Hamilton in the Reds lineup right now and while he's not a great hitter, he can definitely affect a game on the basepaths. I just can't see Cincinnati giving a better effort than they did last night, which means another loss is on the horizon. 8* St. Louis

10* Oakland (1:10 ET): The Detroit Tigers are a really bad baseball team right now. To be fair, they were never really "good" at any point here in 2017, but lately things have REALLY nosedived as they've dropped 15 of 19 games here in September to fall to 27 games below .500 and they have the worst run differential (-124) in the entire American League. If that's not enough, they've even dropped two straight here at home to the A's, who came in w/ the worst road record in all of baseball. Yesterday was particularly soul-crushing as Oakland was able to rally back from a four-run deficit to take the game 9-8. The A's have had no issue scoring in this series (17 runs in two games), so facing a terrible pitcher like Anibal Sanchez, you have to like them to finish off the sweep this afternoon.

When handicapping the MLB card, I assign every starter a "score" as to reflect how I think they'll perform in the upcoming game. Here, Sanchez gets one of the lowest ones I've ever assigned. Sure, he has a 7-7 team start record, but his ERA and WHIP are 6.42 and 1.515 respectively. Lately, things have only gotten worse as in his L3 starts, those numbers are 7.59 and 1.968. Despite that, the Tigers have managed to win two of those three games, which is a major reason I'm looking to play against here. Any kind of sustained success w/ a pitcher of this caliber on the mound should be considered fortunate at best. Now, his last time out saw Sanchez give up only one run in 6 IP w/ a season-best 11 K's. But that was against the White Sox. It was also his best start of the entire year and thus is (highly) unlikely to be duplicated here. 

Oakland, meanwhile, has a red hot pitcher going today. Daniel Mengden has a 2.75 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all team wins. He is coming off a CG, two-hit shutout at Philadelphia last Friday. The A's may not be a good road team, but they actually own a winning record in day games this season. Their lineup should continue to take advantage of a Tigers' pitching staff that allows 5.5 runs per game at home this season. One hitter in particular to watch is rookie Matt Olson, who has homered in five consecutive games. Take it from me; Sanchez is very bad and must be played against here. 10* Oakland