Bryan Power

9* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamondbacks came from behind last night (five runs in the bottom of the eighth) to send the Giants to their sixth consecutive defeat. For me, that five-run rally had me sweating the Under, but the D’backs’ bullpen handled its business in the top of the ninth. Now the home team looks to finish off the series sweep and with a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, I think they do it. 

Merrill Kelly has pitched pretty well this season, in fact you could argue he’s pitching better than he ever has before. Certainly, Kelly is deserving of better than an 8-8 team start record. The D’backs have won four of his last six times out, including the most recent start where Kelly allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over seven innings at Colorado. Kelly’s gone at least six innings in each of his L5 trips to the mound and three of those have seen him allow two runs or less. The Giants’ offense has really been struggling of late with a .202 batting average the last seven games and averaging only 2.6 rpg. This is seemingly a great matchup for Kelly tonight.

Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight and it’s not been a great 2022 for him. The team has lost each of the last three times he’s started, although that also has to do with lousy run support. Still, Cobb’s ERA on the road this year is 6.41. Arizona has been hitting the ball well of late and the Giants’ bullpen is simply not as good as what we saw last season. Look to last night for all the evidence you need. I think this is a really solid value on the home team considering how poor San Francisco has been recently. 9* Arizona

8* Over Guardians/Tigers (1:10 ET): This has been a terrible series thus far for Cleveland, who not only got swept in a doubleheader on Monday, but then also lost 11-4 last night. That was my lone loss on Tuesday’s card (had the Guardians) as the Tigers have now won three in a row for just the third time all season. I’m not about to back them considering how they’ve overperformed their run differential this season. Being outscored by 89 runs, Detroit has a win expectancy of 28 games right now, but they are instead 33-47. But while I can’t back either side in this spot, I do like the total. 

Going back to last season, Tigers’ starter Michael Pineda has seen the Under hit in eight consecutive outings. I believe that streak ends today. Pineda’s individual numbers aren’t all that great, so you wouldn’t expect him to be someone with a perfect Under mark. His exit velocity is quite poor and there are several other advanced metrics which suggest regression is forthcoming for Mr. Pineda, who also gave up a pair of home runs in his last start. Cleveland had 11 hits in yesterday’s game and seems poised to break out of its slump at the plate here after going just 2 for 8 with RISP and leaving nine men on base Tuesday. 

Shane Bieber gets the start for the Guardians today. He has good-looking career marks vs. the Tigers, who also happen to be the lowest scoring team in the big leagues. This is why the Guardians still have the edge in the eyes of the oddsmakers, despite losing three times to the Tigers in the last two days. But I expect Bieber to give up a few runs this afternoon. Like Pineda, Bieber has not pitched as well as some raw numbers might suggest. The Tigers do average more runs per game at home than on the road. In fact, it’s almost a full run per game difference. Look for this to be a surprisingly high-scoring affair. 8* Over Guardians/Tigers

10* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox are looking at the prospect of getting swept for a SECOND time by the Twins this season. They are 0-5 head to head vs. the AL Central leaders so far in 2022, which includes 6-3 and 8-2 losses in the first two games of this series. Should be noted that the first game went into extra innings. I’ve said before that the White Sox were outperforming their run differential (now -45) by staying near .500, but the record and run differential are now a bit more “in line.” I do see the home team avoiding the sweep here on Wednesday afternoon behind lefty Lance Lynn. 

What has been most surprising about the White Sox this season is their poor performance at home. Not only is the club’s record 16-23 at Guaranteed Rate Field, but they’ve been outscored here by 1.8 runs per game! That has to change. Remember that the White Sox came into this series fresh off a sweep of the Giants, out in San Francisco. Lynn has been solid in four starts thus far, particularly the last one where he held the Giants to just three hits over six shutout innings. Lynn is unbeaten in five career starts vs. the Twins with a 2.19 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 29 IP. 

I thought yesterday’s final score (of 8-2) was misleading in the sense that the two teams had a similar number of hits (12 for the Twins, 10 for the White Sox). The difference in the game was that five of Minnesota’s 12 hits were home runs. Meanwhile, Chicago went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven men on base. I expect the hitting to come around this afternoon as the White Sox offense has been far more productive in the daytime than in night games. They face Joe Ryan, who has a 4.37 ERA and 4.48 FIP since returning from the injured list. But above all else, it’s just hard for me to fathom the White Sox being swept for a second time by the Twins. 10* Chi White Sox