Bryan Power

8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Portland State began 2020 with four straight road games, three of them ending up as losses. But they returned home on Saturday and prevailed 82-76 against Idaho State. The Vikings have played a lot of close games in conference play, but tonight they host one of the Big Sky’s weaker teams, that being Weber State. Damian Lillard’s alma mater also happens to be off a win over Idaho State (Thursday) but they needed OT and are only 6-11 SU on the season. This will be Weber State’s fourth time playing on the road since the new year began.

Weber State has won just one time as an underdog (1-10 SU in that role) all year and that was 72-67 at Utah Valley State back on December 4th. They’re just 4-7 ATS getting points so them getting such a small number here doesn’t make them the least bit attractive. Again, the Wildcats needed overtime to snap a three-game losing skid on Thursday. They trailed by seven at halftime. It was the fourth straight game where they were held to 64 pts or less in regulation. This team is 287th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. 

Portland State has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country so far, but is far more efficient than Weber State on the offensive end (80th nationally). Despite a quicker turnaround between games, I like the spot more for the Vikings as they are at home where they’ve won 25 of their last 36 games straight up. Weber State’s struggles as an underdog aren’t just limited to this season. They’ve lost 23 of their last 28 in that role. It’ll be too much offense from Portland State (82.1 PPG at home) for the underdog to overcome in this one. 8* Portland State

10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Colorado has come on strong these last two games, beating San Jose 4-0 and St. Louis 5-3. That pair of victories now has them in second place in the Central Division w/ 60 pts, eight back of the first place Blues. They’ve got the Western Conference’s best goal differential (+33), so it would certainly appear as if this club is going to have a productive second half of the season. With 173 goals scored in 48 games, the Avs are the West’s highest scoring team. 

Detroit is the worst team in all of hockey. They are in last place in the Atlantic with just 28 points. To put that number in its proper perspective, every other team in the league has at least 41 points. The Red Wings also have a -85 YTD goal differential. To put that number in proper perspective, the next worst goal differential in the league is -47. So things are looking rather bleak in the Motor City right now. The team’s biggest issue is that they have given up the most goals in the league. So an Avs team that’s among the league leaders in scoring certainly looks to be a poor matchup. 

While the Red Wings are also last in the league in goals scored, we can count on Colorado doing most of the heavy lifting here anyway. The Avalanche have scored nine goals in the last two games alone. They average 3.8 goals per game on the season while Detroit gives up 4.2 on the road. Getting four or five goals here from the Avs is a very strong possibility, so the hope is that the Red Wings can get at least two. The Over is 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight home games. 10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche

8* Indiana (9:05 ET): The Pacers pulled out a win in Denver last night, rallying with a 41-point 4Q, 18 of those coming from Doug McDermott. They also owned the Nuggets from behind the three-point line, outscoring them there 39-9. The win was the fifth straight for Indiana, who is now 28-15 SU for the year and tied with Boston for 4th place in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread four times during the five-game win streak and won outright both times they were an underdog. They haven’t been a dog of this size since playing at Milwaukee before X-Mas. 

Speaking of X-Mas, Utah must have gotten one heck of a gift because they’re 11-1 SU since the holiday. They’ve climbed up to third in the West, tied w/ Denver at 29-13. The Jazz’s home record is 16-3 SU, which is one of the best home win percentages in the entire league. They’ve lost only two games since December 10th and both were on the road. Since suffering their last home loss (12/9 vs. OKC), the team has gone 16-2 SU overall.

But as hot as the Jazz have been, I feel they are due to “cool off” some. This line is inflated due to it being the second game of a back to back for Indiana. But the Pacers are a solid 3-3 SU in this situation, only being outscored by 3.8 PPG. Too often we see the rested team overvalued in this spot and that’s the case again here. The Jazz have a losing SU record (6-8) vs. teams that have winning records. Incredibly, their L10 games have all been against sub-.500 foes, which explains the win streak. 8* Indiana

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): This is the first meeting of the season between these Southeast Division rivals.They split four games last year. Neither comes into MLK Day playing particularly well. Orlando is in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but is just 20-23 SU on the season after losing B2B games. Charlotte has lost six in a row, but at least they are now back home after a winless four-game trip out West. This will be the sixth straight road game for the Magic, the last five all coming out West. The situation definitely looks better for the Hornets. 

After what he called a “disturbing” effort by his team at Golden State the other night, Magic HC Steve Clifford didn’t mince words when it came to the set up for today’s game. "The Charlotte game is going to be difficult because of the travel, the schedule, which to me is ridiculous." Again, Orlando is coming off five straight road games out West, four of which came in a six-day span. Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t played since Wednesday and after tonight won’t play again until Friday when they face the Bucks in Paris. This game figures to have their full attention. Hornets HC James Borrego seems confident about tonight after all the practice time his team was able to log. 

Orlando was favored (by six) when it lost at Golden State. That was a really bad loss considering the Warriors had lost their previous 10 games and were very short-handed. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Magic were outscored 109-88 the rest of the way. It marked the third time on this trip that they were held below 100 points, nothing new considering they are the league’s lowest scoring team. They made just 29% from 3-pt range vs. Golden State as they fell to 3-7 SU L10 road games. It’s an easy decision to fade them as a favorite in this spot. 10* Charlotte