Bryan Power

8* Under Nationals/Brewers (7:05 ET): Washington just scored a lot of runs over the weekend, 30 to be exact in the last two games. The fact that they split those two games should also tell you they gave up their fair share as well. But there's no denying this lineup is "humming" right now as they have scored 14 or more runs in three of the last four games. Now they're matched up w/ a Pirates team that has been going Over in most of its games all season. The Bucs' O/U record currently stands at 69-48-6, which is the third highest Over percentage in the sport. But they've been held to just one run over the past two games. I'm calling for this one to stay Under. 

Pittsburgh was very nearly shutout (by the Cubs) in both games over the weekend. They didn't score last night until the bottom of the ninth, when the game was well out of reach. In that entire series, they scored just four runs.  It's been a dramatic slide for the Pirates, not that we didn't see it coming, as they're now just 7-27 since the All-Star Break. In seven of the last 11 games, they've been held to three runs or less. On a more positive note, Monday starter Trevor Williams did hold Washington to just two runs on four hits (6 1/3 IP) back in April. He has a 3.06 ERA in four career appearances against the Nats. The Under is 12-4-1 in Williams' L17 home starts vs. a .500 or better opponent. 

Washington has gotten hot despite the absence of Max Scherzer from the starting rotation. Tonight's starter Joe Ross deserves a lot of the credit for that as he's been lights out his L3 starts w/ a 0.50 ERA and 3-0 record. Ross has allowed just one run in 18 IP during that stretch. Going back to the end of last season, the last seven times Ross has started, the Under is 7-0. He has a 2.81 ERA in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The Under is 14-5 in the Nats' L19 road games and 20-7 L27 if they scored 5+ runs the previous game. It's also 6-1 the L7 meetings w/ the Pirates. 8* Under Nationals/Brewers

8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): The Reds are another of those clubs where the won-loss record is really NOT an accurate portrayal. For virtually all of this season, they've sported a positive run differential. Yet they've never quite been able to get to .500. Coming off a split w/ St. Louis over the weekend here at Great American Ballpark, the Reds are seven games below .500, but have still have outscored the opposition by 22 runs this season, a similar differential to that of the 1st place Cardinals (+28). Pitching has been key for the Reds as they've given up the third fewest runs in the National League. The starting rotation (theoretically) got even stronger at the trade deadline w/ the acquisition of Trevor Bauer, who gets the starting nod for Monday. Take the Reds tonight.

San Diego foolishly had playoff aspirations coming into this season. That was due to the acquisition of Manny Machado in the offseason. But that's just one player and he's not even living up to the large contract doled out to him. The Padres' best hitter has been Fernando Tatis Jr, a rookie that's out of the lineup right now. The Padres were able to start this road trip by taking two out of three in Philadelphia over the weekend, but I like their chances for success a lot less here. Eric Lauer gets the start Monday and has a 6.20 ERA/1.453 WHIP in 11 road starts. 

Bauer was rocked his last time out, giving up nine runs in 17-7 loss to Washington. He's been "up and down" all year, so I really like the idea of "buying low" on Bauer here as you know he'll be a lot better tonight. Probably something similar to what we saw in his home debut on 8.9 vs. the Cubs where he allowed just one run in seven innings. He also had 11 strikeouts in that game. The Reds took three of four from the Padres out in San Diego back in April. They are a stronger team at home and should get this series started on a winning note. 8* Cincinnati