Bryan Power

10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. 

Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. 

While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks

8* Indiana (3:05 ET): We’ve got a rare weekday afternoon game in Salt Lake City Friday as the Jazz host the Pacers. Utah still has the best overall record in the league (41-14 SU), however they’ve gone just 3-3 their last six games and were very short-handed in Tuesday’s 106-96 win over sorry Oklahoma City. Three players were out, and as a result the Jazz actually fell behind the Thunder by as many as 17 points. Only seven players ended up scoring, but that ended up being enough to get the win. As of this writing, it’s unclear how many of the three injured players (O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson) will return tonight. 

Conversely, Indiana had a MUCH easier time in its last game. They led wire to wire in a 132-124 win at Houston. That was the fourth win in the last five games as the Pacers try to lock down a spot for the postseason (which begins next month). Currently 8th in the East, Indiana has shown more offense these L5 games, averaging 126.2 PPG. They typically have NOT performed well ATS when coming off a high-scoring effort, but it’s also rare to find them getting as many points as they are here.

While winning in Salt Lake City is tough, the Pacers do sport a 17-12 SU road record this season, which is pretty good. Also, the Jazz did just lose here at home, 125-121 to Washington on Monday night. That snapped a 24-game home win streak. They’ll likely still be short-handed here and the Pacers make for their toughest opponent in over a week. (The Jazz’s L3 games have been against Sacramento, Washington and OKC). The Pacers were able to keep it close (lost by 8) when the teams played last month. I think they do the same again here. 8* Indiana

8* Atlanta (2:20 ET): So this will be the second straight day I’m rolling with the Braves. Yesterday, they won in walk-off fashion, 7-6 over Miami. It was a much needed win as Atlanta had lost the first three games of that series, two of them in extra innings. They very nearly blew another one yesterday as a 5-4 lead turned into a 6-5 deficit in the top of the ninth. Thankfully, they were able to rally for two (runs) of their own in the bottom half of the inning with Dansby Swanson’s RBI single being the game-winner. 

Now the Braves move onto Chicago where they’ll face a Cubs team that is also below .500 after losing four of five. The Cubs just dropped two of three in Milwaukee before an off-day on Thursday. They actually own the worst run differential (-20) in the National League right now, which is never a good distinction. Also not good are the numbers thus far from Friday starter Zach Davies, who has an 11.04 ERA and 2.044 WHIP. He was really roughed up his last time out, giving up seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP and that was against the lowly Pirates. 

Atlanta will go with lefty Drew Smyly. Some would argue that ERA is an outdated, often misleading, way to measure a pitcher’s performance. Smyly’s two starts certainly make a case for that. While his ERA is 5.73, he has a 0.909 WHIP. In 11 IP, he’s allowed only nine hits, but he’s been charged with nine runs (two unearned). Three home runs haven’t helped, but Smyly has an 11-1 KW ratio. I think he’s pitched better than the ERA shows and he should do well against a Cubs lineup that is last in MLB with a 2.7 runs per game average. The Cubs are hitting a collective .163 and have eight games with five or less hits. They have the highest strikeout rate in the NL (29.4%) as well. 8* Atlanta

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies got an unexpected off-day when yesterday’s game with the Mets was rained out. Just as well, the Phils had lost the first three games of that series to fall to 6-6 on the year. But the season began with a 5-1 homestand and their back at Citizens Bank Park tonight to host the Cardinals, who are also 6-6. The Cards, like the Phillies, have lost four of their last five games. They were shutout on Wednesday, 6-0 by Washington, in a game where they finished with only four hits.

Zach Eflin will start tonight’s game for Philadelphia. Both of his previous starts were against Atlanta. Mirroring his team’s performance, Eflin pitched much better when he started at home against the Braves than when he faced them on the road. In the home start, he allowed just one run on four hits in 7 IP. I think we’ll get something closer to that tonight as opposed to the four runs he allowed (in 6 IP) at Atlanta last weekend. The Cardinals have not faced Eflin in nearly three years. The Phillies are 35-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the L3 seasons, regardless of who the starter is.

St. Louis is 0-2 following an off-day this season and just 10-21 in that situation since 2019. They should feel a bit fortunate to be averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road so far as they are batting a collective .206 in those games. Carlos Martinez will make his third start of the season for the Redbirds today. He hasn’t pitched all that well so far with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in two starts. The Cards lost both, including 12-1 in the one that was on the road. 10* Philadelphia