Bryan Power

10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. 

In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line.

Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State

10* Over Jazz/Spurs (7:05 ET): Earlier this week, I made the mistake of playing a matchup between these two Under the total. Pretty clearly, I had underestimated just how much San Antonio has regressed this season. The play also flew in the face of the recent history between the teams as now eight of the past nine matchups have gone Over the total. While the numbers are now higher, I learned from my mistake and expect that trend to continue. The Spurs have seen the Over cash in six straight games, as well as 10 of the last 11, due in large part to the massive defensive regression. Utah hung 139 points on them Tuesday. Of course, San Antonio can score too; something that was readily apparent in a 133-120 win over the Lakers on Friday. Take the Over here.

Utah followed up its win over San Antonio by beating Houston on Thursday, 118-91. I did win w/ the Under in that game as they held the Rockets below 39% from the field. Key was forcing 22 Houston turnovers and turning them into 33 points. The most impressive thing about the win is that the Jazz did it mostly w/o Rudy Gobert, who was ejected in the 2nd quarter for arguing with the officials. After a mostly disappointing first quarter of the season, the team has now won 4 of its last 5. Now they'll look to replicate Tuesday's shooting performance against San Antonio when they were 60% overall from the field and made a season-high 20 three-pointers. Utah is 6-1 Over this season following a double digit win.

The Spurs were down 12 in the 4Q to the Lakers on Friday, but rallied back for a double digit win on the back of eight players scoring in double figures. One of them was DeMar DeRozan, who went for a season-high 36 pts. The bench also outscored the Lakers' reserves 54-26. But I still worry about this team defensively as they've slipped all the way down to 28th in efficiency, a stunning collapse and completely uncharacteristic of what we've seen during the Greg Popovich era. Only Phoenix and Cleveland are lower in defensive efficiency right now. But the Spurs aren't the only team to have regressed defensively in 2018-19. Utah was #2 last season and now #10. San Antonio is 11-3 Over this season in games where they are the underdog. 10* Over Jazz/Spurs

10* Under Eagles/Cowboys (4:25 ET): These NFC East rivals met four weeks ago w/ the Cowboys winning 27-20 as 7.5-pt road dogs. That result signaled a clear change in the direction of the division. Dallas hasn't lost since (4-0 SU/ATS L4 games) and is now in first place at 7-5 SU. The Eagles seemed dead & buried after taking a humiliating 48-7 loss down in New Orleans (worst loss EVER by a reigning SB champ), but they've now bounced back w/ B2B wins and covers. They're just a game back at 6-6 SU, so there's really no downplaying just how important this game really is. I look for a tight, low-scoring affair and am on the Under. 

Philly has seen the Under cash in five of its last six games. The exception was vs. the Cowboys, a game where they both gained and allowed 400+ total yards. The team looks a lot better right now, on both sides of the ball, particularly the offense w/ RB Darren Sproles back and WR Golden Tate in the fold. But this will be just the second "true" road game (excludes London) for the Eagles since October 11th. The other one was against the Saints when they were held to just seven points. This is an offense averaging only 21.5 PPG on the year. They're facing one of the top defenses this week, so don't be surprised if Carson Wentz and company really struggle in this one. 

The Dallas defense is legit. They allow only 18.6 PPG and just held the high-powered Saints to only 10 in this building last Thursday. The Saints failed to gain even 200 total yards in that TNF upset. At the same time, the Cowboys hardly have the most explosive offense. They scored only 13 pts vs. New Orleans and have been held below 20 in three of the last six games. On average, Cowboys' games are among the lowest scoring in the entire league, seeing just 39.2 points per contest. Only the Titans and Jaguars (who played Thursday night) are involved in lower scoring games, on average. The Under is 15-6 in Dallas' last 21 games overall. 10* Under Eagles/Cowboys

analysis soon

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points.

This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). 

The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets

8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. 

Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. 

The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay

10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points.

Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff.

It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta

10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. 

Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether.

Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore