Bryan Leonard

901 Atlanta at Chicago Cubs

Listed Wright & Davies

Pitching change from the overnight puts this in range for a free play. Both these pitchers have been league average their last seven starts. The Cubs are 2-7 on the year facing right handed starters. We want no part of this weak Cubs lineup when facing a team that can bash like the Braves. It's also the first game home for the Cubs after two series away. 

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929 Cleveland at Cincinnati

Listed Allen & Hoffman

Logan Allen was once a highly touted prospect in the San Diego organization. He came over to Cleveland by trade in 2019. From articles we’ve read he has rededicated himself to being the best pitcher possible to honor his wheelchair bound brother. The Indians organization said he lost 35 pounds and is much more focused this season. His first two starts this year had game scores of 50 and 61. 

Jeff Hoffman had a 6.56 ERA in 2019 and even worse 9.28 in 2020. He’s a major weakness in this solid Reds starting rotation. 

Cincinnati is returning home from six games in Arizona and San Francisco. This will be the very first lefty starter the Reds have faced this year. 

Looking at Hard Hit Percentage Cleveland ranks 7th in baseball and Cincinnati 15th. While the Reds have prospered ranking 4th in wRC+, the Indians rank 27th. Cincinnati has been very fortunate this season in hitting with runners in scoring position, Cleveland has been unlucky offensively.

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922 Toronto at Kansas City

Listed Matz & Minor

Steven Matz has looked good in his first two American League starts, but that’s not how it normally works out for starters switching from the NL to the AL. 

Mike Minor has absolutely owned the Blue Jays in his career. In five career starts he has an average 63 game score with a 2.12 ERA. He has a 6.6 to 1 SO to BB ratio. 

Big fans of this Kansas City organization and Toronto is off back to back wins over the NY Yankees. 

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909 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Listed Brubaker & Houser

The Pirates along with the Rangers and Rockies are expected to be the worst teams in baseball this season. But when the price is right any team can be a betting value. And that’s what we have here with Pittsburgh. JT Brubaker is someone we want to put our money on. Over his last five starts his game scores have been 59, 54, 34, 66 and 57. The lone poor start was in Cleveland where they use the DH. He has been very good against National League teams. He also has a solid 54 game score in two starts against the Brewers. Adrian Houser on the other hand has a 46 average game score against the Pirates, and a 42 average game score his last seven overall starts. 

From a hitting perspective Milwaukee ranks 28th in wRC+ and the Pirates are 10th. In hard hot rate Milwaukee ranks 27th and Pittsburgh 22nd. Nice price here with the underdog Pirates.

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