Brandon Lee

40* ARK ST/APP ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Arkansas St +14.5) 

Now that this line has creeped up over two touchdowns, I got no choice here but to take a shot with Arkansas State. I think this Red Wolves team is way undervalued because they use a two quarterback system. If you combine the stats of their two guys, people would be calling their signal caller a Heisman candidate. I know the defense hasn't looked great, but we have seen this team compete against some really good teams. They only lost by 7 at Memphis and won outright 35-31 at Kansas State. 

As for Appalachian State, this has been the best program in the Sun Belt for a while now, but as is the case with a lot of small schools, it can be hard to sustain that level of success. Scott Satterfield really built up this program, but he's now two years removed and last year's head coach Eli Drinkwitz left after one season. They are now on their 3rd head coach in 3 years. 

They beat Charlotte by 15 in their opener, but were only up 1 going into the 4th quarter. They lost ugly at Marshall, scoring just 7 points. That game against the Thundering Herd was on 9/19. They had a week off before playing Campbell, which is like having a bye. They haven't played since. It's been more than a month since this team has been tested on the field. If they aren't sharp, they could easily lose this game outright. Give me Arkansas State +14.5! 

50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5) 

I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball. 

Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value. 

More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great. 

Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense. 

Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240). 

On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line. 

The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass. 

You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5!