Brandon Lee

40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Evansville -6.5) 

I think we are getting big time value with the Purple Aces laying single digits against this awful Eastern Illinois team. Evansville comes into this game having lost 4 straight and are just 2-6 to start the season. 

A lot of that is the schedule. They have 3 losses against teams ranked in the Top 80 at KenPom (Cincinnati, Belmont, UCF). The other 3 are all against quality teams who are ranked between 100 and 160. 

The Panthers from Charleston are ranked No. 345 out of the 358 teams that are ranked. Eastern Illinois is 1-5 with their only win coming against a smaller division opponent in Rockford. The only time they haven't lost by more than 20 is when they have faced an opponent that is also ranked outside the Top 300. 

Evansville is currently sitting at No. 232, but I believe are better than that. I still think their closer to their preseason rank of No. 170. Either way, they should win here by at least 10 points. Give me the Purple Aces -6.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 225.5) 

I really like the value we are getting with the UNDER 225.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Grizzlies. On the season these aren't exactly UNDER teams, as both of these teams have been putting up a lot of points and giving up a lot at the same time. 

I just think that Memphis' offense is going to take a hit without Ja Morant on the floor. Not only he is he their best player, he's their point guard. He makes everything so much easier for everyone else. 

As for the Kings, I got a hard time seeing them wanting to turn this into a track meet after Friday's 3OT thriller that saw them beat the Lakers 141-137. Note that final score makes it look like it was track meet, but that was far from the case as the two teams ended regulation tied 100-100. Kings' point guard De'Aaron Fox played 53 out of 63 minutes in that game. Haliburton played 47 and Hield played 40. 

I just think this total is priced as if both teams were healthy and in good situational spots. Give me the UNDER 225.5! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (Pacers +2.5) 

I'm going to take the Pacers as a 2.5-point home dog against the Bucks. The betting public will be all over Milwaukee at this price. I'll gladly fade the public and side with the books in this one. Yes, the Bucks have been playing better. They have won 6 straight, but they are just 6-10 ATS over their last 16 and are just going to be a team all season that is overvalued as the defending champs. 

It hasn't exactly been the toughest stretch for Milwaukee and they still aren't fully healthy with Lopez and DiVincenzo still out. Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games with the only loss coming in OT. Indiana has also gone 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this year. Give me the Pacers +2.5! 

FREE PICK: Carolina Panthers -1.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 261

I've been burned by the Panthers quite a bit this season. Just feels like I've been off on them in the majority of their games. I think they are going to cover and they don't and when I bet against them they play like Super Bowl contenders. It's the only reason I didn't make this a premium play, because I love the Panthers laying less than a field goal against the Dolphins. 

It's really hard to win games when your offense can't sustain drives and this Miami offense is one of the worst in the NFL. They haven't scored 30 points in a single game and we are going into Week 12. They could only muster 24 against an awful Jets defense last week. 

Now they face one of the better defensive teams in the league in the Panthers and they are going to get Carolina's best after an ugly loss at home to Washington last week. I just think Miami's defense has to be perfect for them to have any shot here and I'm willing to be Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey can find enough offense to win this game. Give me the Panthers -1.5! 

***#EPIC 16-9 (64%) NFL RUN*** Brandon Lee is owning the books in the second half of the season. The winning continues on Sunday! 

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40* (NFL) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Texans -2.5) 

I just think there's some decent value with the Texans laying less than a field goal at home against the Jets. I'm not just taking Houston because they are coming off that big upset win over Tennessee. I really don't love betting on bad teams, but I do like betting against the worst of the worst and this Jets team is really bad. 

The Jets decided to start Joe Flacco last week to make sure there was no debating on if they should go back to Zach Wilson this week. There's definitely some upside with Wilson, but I think any of the other three guys they have used in recent weeks are a better option. I think people forget how bad Wilson was prior to his injury. I also wonder how the players will respond if he struggles to play well. You have to think there's some guys on that team that don't think he's the guy that gives them the best shot to win. 

The other big thing is I think this Jets defense might be one of the worst we have seen in some time. Don't be fooled by a bad Dolphins offense only scoring 24 on them last week. That's more of Miami than anything. With Tyrod Taylor calling the shots for Houston, I think the Texans will have their best showing since Week 1, when they put up 37 points and nearly 450 yards of offense against the Jags. Give me the Texans -2.5! 

50* (NFL) - Browns/Ravens MAX UNIT Top Play (Browns +3.5) 

I love the Browns as a 3.5-point dog against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I just think this is the perfect buy low spot on Cleveland. All you hear about is how bad Baker Mayfield is playing and how this team isn't what we thought they were during their great start to the season. 

I'm not about to say Mayfield has played great, but he's not built to carry a team. This team is built on their running game and defense and injuries have really kept them from playing to their potential. I think they are close. They got back Chubb and now will finally have their 1-2 punch out of the backfield back with Kareem Hunt expected to return. They also are getting back tackle Jack Conklin to give that o-line a big boost. 

As for the Ravens, I think they aren't as good as what people think. Lamar Jackson is great, but they have decimated with injuries. The offensive line is awful and will somehow have to slow down that great Browns pass rush. They also aren't the same on defense as they have been in past years. There's a lot of weak spots for Baltimore on that side of the ball. I think Cleveland could really make a statement here. Give me the Browns +3.5! 

40* (NFL) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -3) 

I agreed with you that the Colts were the play last week as a 7.5-point dog at Buffalo. I just think winning the way they did has them getting way to much respect this week against Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

We both mentioned how we didn't think that Josh Allen and the Bills were as good as what people thought. That's the thing tough. The public still sees Buffalo as one of the best teams in the league. No one is even hesitating to lay almost a touchdown with them on the road in a short week against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. 

So while Indy may have went on the road and embarrassed Buffalo last week, I think they could be the ones on the receiving end of a lopsided loss this week. 

I think most have come to realize that the Colts want to run their offense through running back Jonathan Taylor. I just saw an article on ESPN on how Taylor leads all players, not just RBs, in Pro Bowl voting. 

Maybe I'm on underestimating him, but I think he's going to have a really tough time getting going against this Bucs front seven. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 78.4 ypg. More than 10 yards fewer than the next best team in the Ravens, who give up 88.6 ypg. I think with Taylor being limited, the Colts are going to have a really tough time moving the ball in this game. 

On the flip side of this, Brady and the Bucs put their ugly showing at Washington out of their bye in the rear view window, as they scored 30 points with over 400 yards in their blowout win against the Giants on Monday Night Football. 

Now I know the Giants aren't viewed as a very good team, but they had been playing really well defensively going into that game. Even after that showing, NY's secondary ranks 8th in the NFL, giving up just 6.9 yards/pass attempt. 

The Colts on the other hand are way back at 20th in that department, giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. I get they made Josh Allen look bad, but making Tom Brady look bad is a different story. Brady knows how to beat any defense you throw at him and I just don't trust this Indy secondary.

Prior to facing Allen, the Colts previous 8 games had them go up against the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Mike White/Josh Johnson, Ryan Tannehill twice, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson and Jacoby Brissett. You might be saying Jackson is good. I agree and he went 37 for 44 for 442 yards and 4 scores against Indy. 

I just think there's too much value with Tampa Bay at -3 to pass up and if it were to dip under 3 to 2.5, I'll be adding even more. I think the line here should at a minimum be Bucs -3.5 and probably should be 4 to 4.5. Give me Tampa Bay -3!