At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip. And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight. Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season. And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses. Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Heat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Calgary Flames. The Canadiens decided to exercise caution at the trade deadline, and were calculated in their player moves. Montreal did make some substantial deals, but didn't go crazy and mortgage its future in the process. The Habs brought in veteran C Eric Staal, and only gave up a third and fifth rounder in return. Then they shored up their defense by acquiring Jon Merrill from Detroit and Erik Gustafsson from the Flyers. Certainly, these are not earth-shattering moves, but they may be enough to take them to the next level this upcoming post-season. Tonight, they will seek revenge against the Flames, who beat them on Wednesday, 4-1. That victory was Calgary's third in a row, following on the heels of a four-game losing streak. Unfortunately for Calgary, it is 5-14 (-14 games on the moneyline) in its last 19 off a road blowout win by three or more goals, while the Habs are 10-3 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 off of a home blowout loss. Take Montreal. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians. The Reds will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman tonight, while Cleveland will start Logan Allen. This will be Allen's first road start this season. And he's been a much worse pitcher away from home (8.10 ERA) compared to his outings at home (3.60 ERA). Hoffman will be making his second start at home, and his first one was brilliant, as he gave up just 1 run over 5 innings, in a 12-1 Cincy victory vs. the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds have won their last five at home. And that bodes well, especially given that Cleveland is a poor 18-24 (minus 7.4 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. Take the Reds in this opening game of this 3-game series. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
|
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. The final game of Philadelphia's series against the Mets was postponed due to weather on Thursday, and that does three things for the Phils. First, it allows them to skip meeting the best pitcher in NL in Jacob deGrom (although we actually liked the value of Eflin as a +220 underdog yesterday). Second, it gives RHP Zach Eflin an extra day of rest, which is not a bad thing, as the Phillies are 19-13 after a day off, while St. Louis is a poor 10-21 in the same situation. And, third, Eflin is now favored, and the Phillies are 18-10 (+4.4 games on the moneyline) as a favorite, with him on the mound. Eflin has been very good in his two starts so far this season. In 13 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 10 strikeouts and only two walks. The Cards will go with veteran RH Carlos Martinez who began life in the Majors as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen and is now back in the rotation. To say that Martinez's return to the rotation has been rough would be a big understatement. Last season, C-Mart started five games and went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA. And so far through two starts in 2021, he is picking up where he left off in 2020, with an 0-2 record, 6.30 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. St. Louis is also 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Philly. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
|
