Big Al McMordie

At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets 'under' the total.  All three games of this series have sailed UNDER the total, including Game 3, which generated just 169 points (against an over/under line of 235).  And that game went 'under' by a whopping 66 points.  So, the oddsmakers have adjusted this Game 4 line but, by my math, it's not been adjusted enough.  We'll take the 'under' this afternoon and note, for technical support, that NBA playoff games with O/U lines of 200 (or more) have gone 'under' the total 71% over the last 31 years if the previous game totaled 172 (or less) points.  Even better:  in competitively-priced games with point spreads of less than 4, Milwaukee has gone 'under' in 7 straight (and 42 of 72), while Brooklyn has also gone 'under' seven straight, and in 78 of 127.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Phoenix.  The Nuggets are down 3-games-to-none, but I wouldn't count them out of Game 4 -- especially because they're playing at home, and have been installed as an underdog.  Indeed, home underdogs of less than 8 points, that trail in a 7-game series, three-games-to-none, have actually done quite well against the spread, with a 28-20-3 ATS record since 1991, including 8-1-1 ATS if our home underdog's win percentage was .625 (or better).  Moreover, Denver has been terrific at home off a straight-up home loss, when it's owned a winning record, as it's 6-0-1 ATS its last seven (and 23-12-2 ATS its last 37).  Meanwhile, Phoenix has covered just one of its last seven as road favorites vs. winning teams.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.