Ben Burns

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Braves jumped all over the Cardinals out of the gate in each of the first two games. I expect them to receive a much greater challenge here. Needless to say, Fried is tough. Mikolas is pretty stingy himself though. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts. In fact, his numbers are very comparable to Fried's. Fried has a 2.66 ERA and 1.066 WHIP, averaging 6.3 innings per start. Mikolas has a 2.61 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, also averaging 6.3 innings. The Cards are going to be hungry. In a game where every run figures to take on added importance, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Off back-to-back losses, I expect the Sox to bounce back with an important win this afternoon. Even factoring in yesterday's setback, they're still a healthy 80-58 the past 2+ seasons, when coming off a loss. After getting a couple of starts under his belt, Lynn has found his form. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings. I expect him to build off that effort. Ryan has certainly been solid. His last road start didn't turn out too well though; he allowed four earned runs (2 HR's) in just 4 2/3 innings of a 5-0 loss. With Detroit and Cleveland coming to town next, the Sox have a chance to make up some ground. They need this win first though. I say they get it. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Yes, the price is steep. Given the matchup, however, it could easily be even higher. Burnes is among the best in the game. He consistently delivers quality and he's in excellent current form. He's 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP his past three starts, averaging seven complete innings. Consider that he gave up the same amount of hits (8) in those 21 combined innings as his opponent (Sampson) gave up in five innings of his last start. On the season, Burnes has a 2.36 ERA and 0.916 WHIP. The Brewers are 4-0 his past four starts, winning by a combined score of 36-8. Brewers roll. 

I'm playing on NY. The Yankee bats have been quiet the past couple of games. They should bounce back big in this one though. Severino is off b2b quality starts. Those both came against Houston though and the Yankees didn't provide him any support. That'll change here. Keller is 1-5 with a 5.34 ERA through 13 starts. He's got a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP his past three. Last time out, he walked four in four innings. That's rarely a good sign. The Pirates are still 2-6 in IL play, 15-33 the past few seasons. Yanks bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA. Miami often enjoys an edge on the mound. That won't be the case in this one though. Ohtani isn't getting the attention that he did last season but he's quietly getting it done. Through 13 starts, he's 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. Those numbers have been getting better thanks to the fact that he's got a 0.00 ERA his past three starts. That's right, zero earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. In his previous start, he allowed one run through seven innings. Not surprisingly, LA is 4-0 his past four starts. Over his past two starts, he's struck out 24, while walking only two, in 13 2/3 innings. Dominant. He should get some support here as Rogers has an awful 8.39 ERA and 1.865 WHIP in six home starts. Enough's enough. Angels bounce back. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. After getting blown out yesterday, their third straight loss, I expect the Guardians to bounce back this afternoon. Since a bad start in early May, Bieber has been outstanding. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine straight starts. On the road, he's got a 2.67 ERA and 1.134 WHIP through nine starts, averaging better than six innings. Pineda has only made one start over the past couple of months and he gave up nearly as many HR's (2) as he recorded strikeouts (3.) Expect Cleveland to bounce back and improve on its 23-9 mark, the past 32 times it was listed as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range.