Ben Burns

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) On a chilly afternoon at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, every run takes on added significance. The Cubs have seen four of their past five games decided by a single run, three of those were 1-run wins. Cahill has alternated between good and bad starts; he's allowed just one run in two of his past three outings. In his last road start, he went six innings and allowed just two hits. That's more than Davies can say. He hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his last five starts and he's walked seven batters in his past two starts, a span of just 7 2/3 innings. Davies' first start this season was a 1-run game against the Pirates. Expect AT LEAST another run-line cover for Pittsburgh in this one. 

I'm playing on LEICESTER. After settling for a disappointing draw against Southampton last time out, Leicester will be all business today, determined to pick up the maximum points.  There is no doubt about the class difference between these two sides. Leicester sits third in the table. Newcastle is 17th. The Foxes have scored 61 goals and allowed 39. The Magpies have scored 36 and allowed 56. Arguably, the Magpies are a little better than their numbers suggest. Still, they're not good enough to compete against what will be a determined Leicester team. Knowing that things will get a lot tougher after this game, the Foxes take care of business. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. The Hornets got hammered by the Bulls last night. The fact that they're playing the second of b2b games works in our favor, by keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. This is a game that the Hornets need to have. The Magic are a bad team and they're severely banged up. In addition to needing the game and playing at home, the Hornets are more talented and have more depth. They're also 14-8 SU/ATS on the season, when off a double-digit loss. The Magic are off a 36-point loss of their own, as the depleted roster caught up with them. Look for the determined Hornets to pull away in this one, improving to 8-3 ATS their last 11 against teams from within their own division. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I expect the Astros to have the edge in this evening series opener againt the Jays. Urquidy is off b2b gems. Two starts ago, he allowed just two runs through six complete innings. Last time out, he was even better, as he tossed seven shutout innings against Tampa. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his past four. He allowed four in the other but that came at Coors Field. He hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in years. Literally. Stripling has gotten in a few starts but he's unlikely to remain a regular part of the Jays starting rotation. In those three starts, he's got an ugly 6.40 ERA and 1.738 WHIP. His lone road start saw him allow three runs in 3 1/3 innings. The Astros got back some momentum, while also climbing back above 500, by closing out their series at NY with a win. They're a dominant 93-42 at home the past few years. Expect them to build off yesterday with another victory today. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. A date with the Detroit Tigers should be exactly what Shoemaker and the Twins need. While the Twins still have hope to turn things around, the Tigers already know that its going to be a long season. Minnesota knows that it needs to take advantage of these games. Shoemaker tossed a gem here to begin the season. He allowed just three hits and only one earned run, through six complete innings. He struck out five and didn't walk a batter. The Twins won 15-6. Shoemaker should get solid run support once again as Skubal is really struggling this season. I successfully played on the Yankees (-1.5 runs) the last time that Skubal was on the mound. Here's an excerpt from that game: "... Skubal, on the other hand, has already walked 12 batters in 19 innings. He's 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. For his career, he's 1-7 with a 5.47 ERA. More? Skubal has the support of a Detroil bullpen which has a horrible 7.72 ERA and 1.930 WHIP on the road ... The Tigers have lost Skubal's three 2021 starts by scores of 8-4, 11-3 and 9-3. Expect another blowout ... " Sure enough, Skubal got rocked (3 HRs in 3 innings!) and the Tigers lost 10-0. The Tigers gave up 12 runs yesterday, allowing "double-digits" for the second time in the 3-game series against Boston. They're an ugly 9-27 their last 36, after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. Shoemaker's teams are 6-1 over his career against the Tigers, including 3-0 the last three. His teams won those games by a combined score of 28-6, Shoemaker allowed just a single run in the 19 combined innings. Twins bounce back. 

I'm playing on Detroit/Columbus OVER the total. Recent Red Wing games have been low-scoring including a 1-0 game the last time these teams met. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping this O/U line nice and low. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that 16 of the past 17 meetings have had O/U lines of 5.5 or higher. The Wings give up 3.0 goals per game while the Jackets give up 3.3. After facing stingier teams (Columbus played Nashville, while Detroit faced Tampa) both offenses should welcome the chance to face another non-playoff team which allows more scoring chances. Columbus scored four goals last time out, a 4-2 win over the Predators. In their previous game, the Jackets allowed four, a 4-3 loss. The OVER is 9-2 the last 11 times that the Jackets played with one day's rest in between games and 7-1 the Jackets' last eight home games. While there's always a chance of a push, when playing with an O/U line of five, I feel that this one has a greater chance at producing more than five goals than it does less than five.