Ben Burns

Jacob de Grom has a 2.29 ERA his last three starts but the Mets lost all three of them.  He's now 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA his past five. Sound familiar? It certainly does to de Grom. The Mets rarely provide him with much run support and they're unlikely to do so this evening either. Thats because Teheran has a superb 0.81 ERA over his past eight starts. Teheran has also always pitched well against the Mets. In fact, he's allowed just 10 combined runs in his past eight starts against them. Assuming you can get a nine, consider the UNDER in this one. 

Did you know? Already 2-0 this season, Ben has delivered 8 STRAIGHT CFL WINNERS. He's now 13-2 ATS his past 15. His CFL GAME OF THE MONTH goes Thursday!

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Reds won yesterday but I fully expect the Astros to bounce right back today. While the Astros are 15-9 off a loss, the Reds are 12-20 off a win. Going back further finds the Astros at 95-58 off a loss and the Reds at 71-94 off a win. Verlander has a dominant 2.50 ERA and 0.735 WHIP on the season. On the road, he's 6-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.798 WHIP.  On the other hand, Desclafini has a 4.43 ERA and a poor 4.79 mark at home. Though he's been solid of late, unlike Verlander, Desclafini rarely goes too deep into games. Even with yesterday's result, the Astros are still a commanding 20-7 against sub-500 teams. They're now 129-66 against losing teams the past few seasons. With Verlander doing his thing, expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. This O/U number climbed overnight providing us with some additional value. I feel that the line will prove to be too high. Kelly is in outstanding current form. He's 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.627 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he limited the Phillies to three hits through 7 2/3 shutout innings. Overall, Kelly has a 2.35 ERA is six home starts, the UNDER going 4-1-1. Not surprisingly, Senzatela has been better on the road than he has at home. In his last road start, he allowed just one earned run, on only four hits, through six complete innings. Including that results, his last three starts have all fallen below the total. Senzatela has also seen the UNDER go 4-0 his last four against Arizona, allowing four or fewer earned runs in each of those starts, including just 1 and 2 (through 6 and 7 innings) his most recent two starts against. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.