Ben Burns

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Quantrill has pitched well of late. However, Gray has been even better. In fact, he's got a 0.00 ERA his last three starts. The Reds were 3-0 in those games, winning by a combined score of 18-6. The majority of Quantrill's success has come at Petco. On the road, he's got a 4.57 ERA. Its true that San Diego has now won three straight. However, it should also be noted that the Padres are just 11-25 (-13) the past 2+ seasons, after winning three or more consecutive games. The Reds are 12-4 when playing with 'revenge,' from a game where they were listed as home favorites. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing ATLANTA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Braves were a little too steep to consider on the money-line. However, as I'm expecting them to win this one by multiple runs, I feel that the run-line is the way to go. The Marlins just roughed up Keuchel two starts ago, at Miami. Keuchel bounced back with six shutout innings against the Mets though. Off that gem and facing the Marlins in his new home park, I expect a much better effort. Note that Keuchel has a stellar 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home starts, as a Brave. Hernandez got the better of Keuchel in that game at Miami. However, he followed it up by getting rocked for six runs, serving up four home runs, in his last start. On the road, he's got a 5.89 ERA through four starts. Factoring in a couple of relief appearances and he's got a 7.20 ERA on the road. He had a 6.43 ERA in July and has a 6.60 ERA in August. Braves roll. 

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I like the Pirates to win this one 'outright.' However, in a game where scoring may well be at a premium, I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. After getting embarrassed 13-0 yesterday, the Pirates are going to be determined to bounce back with a much better effort. Note that the Nats are just 2-6 (-7.7) vs. the ML their last eight, after a win by 12 or more runs. The Pirates, meanwhile, are 2-0 this season, after losing by 12 or more. Back in May, they lost 17-4 to the Cards. They bounced back and beat those same Cards by a 2-1 margin the next day. Prior to that, they lost 14-1 against Oakland. Once, again they bounced back and beat the A's (6-4) the following day. While the wins haven't been coming, Archer has quietly been pitching well since the Break. He's recorded 19 K's vs. only two walks his last two starts. Strasburg, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.30 ERA his last three starts. Last time out, he walked three against four K's. His last road start was a 1-run game. Archer has faced the Nats three times over his career. His team won one of those and the other two (including one this season) were both 3-2 losses. Archer was sharp in all three. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover."