Ben Burns

I'm playing on Golden State/Utah UNDER the total. The Warriors have seen five of their six December games stay below the total (4-0 under on the road) and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. This season, the UNDER is 3-1 when Utah is off a double-digit win. Going back further finds that the Jazz have seen the UNDER go 15-9 the past 24 times that they were off an upset win as an underdog. With Golden State averaging a mere 98.9 ppg its past five, look for those stats to improve tonight.

I'm playing on MIAMI. Obviously, the Lakers have been playing great basketball. Yes, Lebron will be "up" for the game at Miami. Still, the Lakers have been logging a lot of miles lately. From 11/22 to 11/27, they played four straight on the road. They got two at home before playing three on the road, back for just one at home and now they're playing the second game of another 5-game trip. Eventually, it'll catch up to them and I think that'll be tonight. In case you haven't been paying attention, the Heat are a perfect 11-0 on their home floor. They're absolutely also going to be up for this one. They're not just beating visiting teams, they're dominating them. They've won those 11 games by an average score of 118.8 to 103.1. Playing with revenge from a loss at LA last month, look for the rested Heat to rise to the occasion and continue their excellent homecourt play.

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks got hammered last time out. However, in fairness, they were on the road and they were off a hard-fought OT loss at Miami the previous night. Now, they're back home and they've had some rest. I expect a much better effort. The Pacers are just 1-5 ATS as road favorites of six or fewer points. They're 2-2 their last four overall but both wins came by five or less. Speaking of close games, the last two meetings between these teams were decided by a single-point. In what should be another close one, grab the points and expect the Hawks to improve to 4-1 ATS when off a road loss of 20 or more. 

I'm playing VEGAS on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) With the Knights playing the second of b2b games, the Stars are favored a bit more on the money-line than they otherwise would have been. In turn, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the Knights for a relatively reasonable price; relative at least when considering the significance of an extra +1.5 goals. The Stars won 4-2 when these teams met a few weeks ago. However, prior to that, the Knights had always fared well against them. The Knights had won five of the six preivous meetings, including four straight. As for the b2b situation, the Knights aren't typically bothered by that. In fact, they're 4-1 when playing the second of b2b games this season, the lone loss coming by a single goal. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each, they'd be 5-0 when playing the second of b2b games. They're going to be hungry and I expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" tonight. 

I'm playing on Colorado/CSU UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game (86-80) against each other last season, at Colorado. A closer look shows that it really wasn't that high-scoring until they got a ton of points in the final minutes. They were still at 70-59 with six minutes to go. The previous season, here at Colorado State, the game was lower-scoring; the rivals combining for 135 points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Rams have only managed 57, 64 and 72 points their last three. Now, they'll face a Colorado team which allows just 60.6 ppg. The Buffaloes need to be good defensively as they only average 68.6 ppg and that number dips to 66.5 on the road. Including the previously mentioned game here two seasons ago, the UNDER is 19-8 the Buffs last 27 road games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I backed the Hornets in their last game and they rewarded me with an upset win at Brooklyn. I don't think they're going to be able to do it again tonight though. Charlotte may come in with the better record but the Bulls are starting to get going and I believe that they're the superior team. Two games ago, the Bulls lost a 1-point game against Toronto, their third straight defeat of five or less. To take the champs down to the wire was still a good effort though and they followed it up with a 136-point explosion (136-102 win) against Altanta last game. They're quietly a dominant 25-9-2 ATS in December, the past 2+ seasons. They're also 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they were off a double-digit home win. Expect another one tonight. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Already potentially weary from playing the 5th leg of a 6-game road trip, the Clippers may also be ripe for an emotional letdown after defeating the defending champs, at Kawhi's old stomping grounds. Either way, they're going to be facing an extremely motivated T-Wolves team. The Wolves haven't won yet this month and they're desperate to change that. Since scoring only 91 to begin their trip, the Clippers have hit at least 110 in each of their last three games. That's proven that its not necessarily a good thing; they're 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 or more in each of their previous three games. Look for the Wolves to bring their best effort, improving to 19-11 ATS the past 30 times that they had failed to cover their previous six games.