Ben Burns

I'm playing on HOUSTON. No need for the Astros to panic. They've been here before. They're still at home and they've got a future Hall-Of-Famer on the mound. Verlander, 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA on the season, dominated the Yankees in a pair of 2017 playoff starts. While Verlander is extremely battle-tested, Paxton has only made one postseason start; he's got a poor 5.79 ERA to show for it. When the Astros faced Paxton, here at Houston, back in April, they scored five runs against him. With Verlander on the mound, they shouldn't need that many this time. Expect them to dig deep and find a way to even up the series.

I'm playing LA on the money-line. Needless to say, its been a great start for the 49ers. Better than great. Schedule and venue working against them, I expect them to finally taste defeat on Sunday afternoon though. Not only do the Rams have homefield advantage, they're also working with considerably more rest. LA played on Thursday of last week while SF played on Monday. I believe that'll prove significant. The Rams were 2-0 off a Thursday game last couple of seasons while SF was 0-2 off a Monday game. The Rams crushed the 49ers in both games (48-32 and 39-10) last season and they know they need this one more than their guests. They'll finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on LA. The Steelers have been good for so long that its hard for many to accept reality; this is currently a bad team. Indeed, the Steelers have been bad on both sides of the ball - and on special teams. Granted, the Chargers haven't been much better. They're working with a lot more though, while also playing at home - and I believe that their season can still be salvaged. Of course, with b2b road games on deck, that requires that the Chargers take care of business here. I expect them to do just that. The Chargers have failed to covers in three of their past four. They're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation (after having failed to cover 3 of previous 4) the past couple of seasons though. During that span, they're also 4-0-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range. Expect the Chargers to take advantage of their banged-up and struggling guests, bouncing back with a much-needed, momentum-building double-digit win. 

I'm playing on Washington/Miami OVER the total. A pair of winless teams from opposite conferences have little reason to play cautiously. The Skins have allowed more than 30 points in four of their five games. The Dolphins have allowed 30 or more points in every game, an average of 40.7 ppg allowed, by far the worst in the NFL. In three home games, that average increases to 44 ppg. The Dolphins are also allowing a whopping 472.5 ypg. Thats more than 60 extra yards per game than the second worst team. With the OVER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Dolphins were home underdogs of seven or fewer points, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number. 

I'm playing on NO/Jacksonville UNDER the total. Both teams saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have helped in keeping this O/U line a little higher than it otherwise could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Both defenses have shown, at times, that they can get it done. The Jags held Houston to 13 points and 253 total yards. They also limited the Titans to a mere seven points. The Saints, meanwhile, delivered a dominant defensive performance against Dallas, limiting the Cowboys to 10 points and 45 yards on the ground. While both backups have proven capable, its still worth mentioning that both teams are without their starting QBs. While the Saints may have scored 31 for me last week against Tampa, the UNDER is 13-7 the past 20 times that they'd scored 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, the UNDER is also 4-2 when the Saints were road underdogs of three or fewer points. As for the Jags, the UNDER is 5-2 the past seven times that they'd allowed 30 or more points in their previous game and a lucrative 9-1 the past 10 times that they were off a road loss. Look for those stats to imorove Sunday afternoon, as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting.