Ben Burns

I'm playing on MARSHALL. Needless to say, its been a tough stretch at the betting window for the Thundering Herd. However, lets not forget that they were the preseason favorite to win this conference. Their recent poor ATS stats, combined with strong ATS numbers from the Blue Raiders, have us working with a very small pointspread. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that Marshall was laying -15.5 and -17 when it hosted the Raiders last year. (The Herd won the two games by 39 combined points.) Don't forget that the Raiders have lost four straight on the road. In fact, they're 3-25 SU their last 28 road lined games. Facing an angry opponent, I expect that to be five road losses in a row after tonight. Expect a much needed win and cover from motivated Marshall. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Predators are a week too late. If they caught the Oilers last week, they would have faced a struggling team, mired in a losing streak. However, the talented and streaky Oilers have since turned the corner. They beat hated provincial rival Calgary and then rallied to beat Vancouver last game. Off those b2b wins, they've got their momentum back. Yet, we're still getting the Oilers at a very fair price. Consider that they were laying in the -235 range when they hosted the Preds in November. Edmonton won 5-2, continuing a run of recent dominance in the series. (The Oilers have won the past four meetings.) Needless to say, tonight's line is much lower. The Oilers are 10-2 the past 12 times that they allowed two goals or less in their previous game. Expect the "suddenly surging" Oilers to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. These teams met twice in 2021. The combines scores were 210 and 213. Both games stayed below the total. Tonight's O/U number is higher than that. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Curry is expected to be out again for the 76'ers. Not only does he shoot 3-pointers, he also makes Embiid better. The 76'ers star center noted: "He adds a lot to our offense. Obviously, my two-man game with him is huge. That little two action that we always run is hard to guard. So we haven't run that obviously because he hasn't been playing." The 76'ers have seen the UNDER go 11-7 against teams from the West, 4-0 against teams from the Pacific. Overall, the UNDER is 14-7 in their home games. The Lakers play lower-scoring games on the road than they do at home. They just held the Nets to 96 points. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair.

I'm playing on TENN. STATE. The Cougars are playing poorly right now. I don't believe that they should be laying this many points. Keep in mind that SIUE has never had a winning team, since joining Div 1 basketball in 2008. The Cougars have currently lost four straight. To their credit, they played well in the loss at Morehead State. Still, they're 1-6 since 12/21. The Tigers eked out a cover last game, after winning by double-digits the game before that. They don't give anything away talent-wise in this matchup and know its a great opportunity for them to steal a road win. Don't be "shocked" if they win outright. In what should be a close one, grab the points and look for the Tigers to improve to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/GS UNDER the total. I won with the Warriors 'over' the total last game. However, that was a much lower O/U number and an entirely different opponent and setup. Now, I feel that tonight's considerably bigger number will prove to be too high. While Curry and the offense still steal the headlines, the Warriors have the best defense in the NBA. They allow the fewest points in the league and they also hold opposing teams to the lowest field goal percentage. After giving up 92 in b2b games, they've now held four of their past five opponents to 103 or less. Note that the UNDER is 8-2 when they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or higher. Speaking of the O/U line, these teams faced each other less than two weeks ago and the O/U line was 215. I actually eked out a win with the 'over' in that one, as the teams combined for 218. Note that Minnesota held GSW to just 99. Again, tonight's number is much higher. I say the revenge-minded Warriors flex their defensive muscles and that the final combined score stays beneath the generous number. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Pirates are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams are at the opposite end of the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are arguably the best team. Certainly, they're among the best. The Pirates are, perhaps, the worst. Indeed, they scored a mere 36 points in their last game, giving up 79. Yes, the Tigers have been dealing with some missing players and that's led to them going through a tough stretch. Still, I like the way that they eked out a road win at Tulsa last game. Now, back home with confidence restored and stepping down in class to face an inferior opponent, I expect them to deliver a blowout. Added motivation stems from the fact they lost by a single point, less than two weeks ago, at East Carolina. Note that the Tigers are 8-4 ATS their last 12, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Off their dismal effort at Houston, note that the Pirates are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. I say this one gets ugly.