Ben Burns

I'm playing PITTSBURGH on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Brewers are on top of the division. The Pirates are in the basement. The Brewers are very likely going to make the playoffs. The Pirates are not. The Brewers have won each of the first two games convincincly. Another easy winner for them today? I'm not seeing it. With Milwaukee heavily favored on the moneyline, we're able to get great value with the Pirates on the run-line. Though we may not need the extra +1.5 runs, I'll happily take them. Kuhl has quietly been pitching very well recently. In fact, the Pirates are 5-1 in his last six starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all six of those, one or less in four of them. While Peralta has also pitched well, the Brewers are 1-2 his last three starts. One of those losses came against Pittsburgh. So, the Pirates have already seen him this month. Not the case for the Brewers with Kuhl. After this game, the Brewers head to Atlanta. They've been fine without Yelich and Peterson (Quarantine) but missing those guys figures to catch up with them here. Kuhl and Peralta opposed each other back in the spring and Pittsburgh won a 1-run game. I say the Pirates bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on NY. Smyly may have been better than Walker last start but Walker has been better overall. Walker is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.073 WHIP through nine home starts. The Mets were 8-1 in those games. Smyly, on the other hand, has a mediocre 4.01 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 10 road starts. The Braves are 14-19 in day games. The Mets are 22-13 in day games. Therefore, its not surprising that Walker is 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA in afternoon games while Smyly has a 4.26 ERA in the day. Opposing batters hit .262 against Smyly in afternoon games but .199 against Walker. Walker faced the Braves twice, back in May. He allowed zero runs and only three hits, striking out 10 against one walk. The Mets won 12-3 and 3-1. Look for them to close the series with an important win.