Ben Burns

In what could be a well-pitched affair, I like the youngster against the veteran. Paddack had a 2.10 ERA in the minors last season. This spring, he had a 1.76 ERA through five starts, the final one coming against the Mariners. Through four big league starts, Paddack has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.800 WHIP.  Hernandez, on the other hand, has a 4.91 ERA and 1.473 WHIP. While its true that he's always pitched well here, so far this season, on the road, King Felix has an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.857 WHIP. Consider laying the wood with San Diego, listing Paddack. 

A tidy 4-1 Tuesday brings Ben Burns to a SICK 64-40 for the month of April. Known for his "big game prowess," Ben's top-rated MLB plays are on a long-term $69K profit heater. With $82K in profits, his top-rated basketball has been even better. A HUGE Wednesday card features SIX premium plays. Ben's shooting for a PERFECT 6-0 CARD. Do NOT miss it!

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates lost yesterday, costing me a perfect 5-0 card. I expect them to bounce back today though. With a 2-0 record and 0.53 ERA, Lyles is in exceptional form. Last time out, he blanked the Giants for six innings. On the other hand, Kelly lasted just 3 2/3 innings last time out, giving up three runs on six hits. Frankly, he was lucky to only allow that many, as he also walked seven batters. Thats never a good sign. In two road starts, he's got a 5.58 ERA and a horrible 2.068 WHIP. Even after losing the first two in the series, the Pirates are still 81-55 (+9.3) the past 2+ seasons, as favorites of -110 or greater. I feel that the price could easily be higher, given the form of the starters, and I expect the Pirates to improve on those numbers today. Payback time!

I'm playing on Seattle/San Diego UNDER the total. While yesterday's game snuck over the number, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair this afternoon. Paddack had a 2.10 ERA in the minors last season. This spring, he had a 1.76 ERA through five starts, the final one coming against the Mariners. Through four big league starts, Paddack has a stellar 2.25 ERA and 0.800 WHIP.  At home, his WHIP dips to a miniscule 0.636. King Felix has also enjoyed success here at Petco. In fact, he's 5-1 with a dominant 1.63 ERA in eight starts here. In his last four starts against the Padres, he's allowed 1, 1, 1 and 2 earned runs. His lone 2018 start against SD resulted in a 2-1 final. Yesterday notwithstanding, the UNDER has been money here this season. Look for the final combined score to stay beneath the number. 

I'm playing on COLORADO. The Nationals took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Rockies to bounce right back this afternoon. If you've ever had an infected tooth, you know it can cause a lot of pain. Getting rid of it feels great. Marquez was dealing with an infected tooth last time out - but still battled - and has since gotten it pulled. He's got a superb 2.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP on the season. On the other hand, Sanchez has an ugly 4.91 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the season. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Rockies are a stellar 79-48 (+8.7) as home favorites of -110 or greater. Pitching matchup in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Utah/Houston OVER the total. The Jazz stayed alive last game, sending the series back to Houston. The Rockets scored at will in the first two games here, putting up 118 and 122 points. While the last game stayed below the number, the OVER is still 3-1 the past four times that the Jazz were facing elimination. During that span, the OVER is also 2-0 when Utah was off a win of 15 or more points, when listed as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Rockets have seen the OVER go 7-2 when playing with revenge from a loss where they were listed as a road favorite. Expect plenty of points, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on Carolina/Washington UNDER the total. While the last two games have found their way above the number, I'm expecting goals to be at a premium for Game 7. Even factoring in the last two games, the UNDER is 22-11-1 when the Canes faced a divisional opponent while the Caps have seen the UNDER go 20-14 in their divisional games. Prior to the last two, the scores were 2-1 and 5-0. The last six times that the Caps were in a Game 7, every one of them finished with five or fewer combined goals. The scores were 4-0, 2-0, 2-1, 5-0, 2-1 and 2-1. We have to go back much further (2009 Conf. semis) to find that the last time that the Canes played a Game 7. That one also finished below 5.5, a final score of 3-2, in OT. Look for more of the same Wednesday night. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Since the Clippers came back to shock them in Game 2, the champs have been on a mission. They won Game 3 and Game 4 by a combined 35 points. With a chance to close out the series here, I expect them to be all business right from the opening tip. Despite blowing the cover in Game 4, the Warriors remain a dominant 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) their last 41 first round playoff games. In other words, when they win in the first round, they almost always cover. The Clippers are just 6-10 ATS off a home loss. Going back further finds them at an ugly 19-29 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors won Game 1 here by 17. Before their meltdown in Game 2, they were on pace for another decisive win and cover. That meltdown will ensure that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Expect them to advance to the next round in blowout fashion.