ASA

ASA PLAY 9* ON Run Line: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5 runs) over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

The Reds Trevor Bauer is off a tough start but he now makes his 3rd start at Great American Ball Park this season and he has thrived here. One start at this park was as a member of the Indians and the other was his home debut as a member of the Reds. He was phenomenal in both outings as his combined stats show. Bauer allowed 2 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings of work. Now Bauer takes on a Padres team struggling at the plate. While San Diego did manage to win the final two games of their series at Philadelphia they also scored just 3 runs yesterday. The Padres had a .383 slugging percentage last week and that ranks them 13th out of the 15 National League teams. For the sake of comparison, the Reds have a .480 slugging percentage in the month of August. Bauer has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 straight home starts (1 with Reds and 3 with Indians). Pitching as the host has suited him well and he also should get plenty of run support. The Cincinnati lineup gets to take shots at a struggling Eric Lauer in this one. The Padres left-hander is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA in road starts this season! In 6 games (5 starts) since the all star break, Lauer has a 6.56 ERA. Of course the above factors are why the Reds are a sizable money line favorite. That being said, we like the value of the run line here as the Reds are available in the +125 price range when laying 1.5 runs. 49 of the Padres 64 losses (more than 75%) have been by two or more runs. 9 of the Reds last 10 wins have come by 2 or more runs. In fact those 9 victories came by an average victory margin of 4 runs. Coincidentally, our computer math model is forecasting a win by a 4-run margin for the home team in this one. Lay it! Bet the Reds -1.5 runs in early evening action Monday