ASA

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -3.5 vs. Chicago Sky, 10 pm ET - We made a mistake and bet the Mercury in their last game against the Lynx but that result has impacted today’s number and value clearly lies with Phoenix here. Chicago is projected to be one of the lower teams in the WNBA this season yet they are catching essentially the same number here from the Mercury, that Phoenix was just favored by against a contender in Minnesota. Chicago is 2-0 but both wins have come against the expansion Portland Fire and last years expansion team the Golden State Valkyries. Phoenix opened the season with an impressive road win in Vegas but has since lost two straight which should have them motivated here. Phoenix has the better roster at this point with Alyssa Thomas – another potential MVP candidate along with Copper and Bonner. Phoenix was 18-10 SU at home a year ago with an average +/- of plus 5.4PPG. As a home favorite they were 9-10 ATS but had an average margin of victory in those games of +6.2PPG. Chicago didn’t travel well a year ago with a 4-18 SU on the road a year ago with an average loss margin of -10.4PPG. The situation favors the Mercury minus the points.

ASA NBA play on San Antonio Spurs -5.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:40 pm ET - There are plenty of trends out there that support the Wolves at home that rely on Game 6 home dog situations, but it’s become obvious the Spurs are just that much better. In fact, the betting markets are supporting that train of thought with the Sharps pounding San Antonio tonight. We could visually see the Wolves were struggling and barely managed to beat the Spurs without Wemby in Game 4 at home. Then is Game 5 we accurately predicted a Spurs win and tonight they end the series in Minnesota with a double-digit win. The T’Wolves offense in the last two games has struggled with a Net rating of 104.5 and an eFG% of 47.2% - both substantially lower than their season long averages of 115.6 and 55.9%. Obviously, that has a lot to do with the Spurs defense that was one of the best all season long with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.114-points per possession allowed during the regular season. In the post season the Spurs have been the best defense of the playoffs allowing 1.034PPP. It’s not just defense that the Spurs have the clear advantage over the Wolves. San Antonio has an OEFF of 1.165-points per possession in the playoffs, the Wolves OEFF is 1.087PPP – and that’s after facing a bad Denver defense in the first round. The Spurs are moving on to face the Thunder in the WC Finals.

#918 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -145 over Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - The Braves have the best record in baseball plus they are entering this game off a loss. Atlanta is a fantastic 8-1 the last 9 times when they have entered a game off a loss. They were shutout yesterday but entered that game on a 24-8 red hot run. The Braves are 13-3 this season against left-handed starters while the Red Sox are 13-20 against right-handed starters this season. Certainly Atlanta right-hander Strider (40-24, 3.72 ERA in his career) rates the edge over Boston's Early as the Red Sox southpaw is off of a strong start versus Tampa Bay but allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings over his 3 prior starts. The young lefty has been solid at the MLB level overall but still has made only 12 career starts. Strider, on the other hand, is the more experienced hurler and also it looks like he is rounding back into 'Vintage Strider' form once again. The Red Sox bullpen is solid but so too is Atlanta's and the big edge here is in hitting. The Braves have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors while the Red Sox slugging percentage is dead last in the AL. We are laying the moderate, yet very reasonable, price in this early game Friday evening.

#915 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -150 over New York Mets, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - Holmes has pitched well for the Mets this season but Schlittler (5-1, 1.35 ERA) has pitched even better for the Yankees. Also, the Mets are off a 3rd straight win yesterday but were on an 8-21 run prior to sweeping the Tigers. The Yankees were resting yesterday after a loss Wednesday and they will bounce back here. The Yankees have struggled recently but they have for the most part feasted on weaker teams this season as they are 26-9 this season when facing a team that does not currently have a winning record on the season. The Mets are a horrible 3-12 this season when facing a team that currently has a winning record on the year. We like the setup here for a Yankees bounce back as the Mets long-term struggles against quality teams quickly resumes here. We are laying the moderate, yet very reasonable, price in this early game Friday evening.