ASA

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 227.8 total points being scored. We don’t expect this game to be ‘average’. The host Pelicans like to play at a faster rate as they rank 8th in possessions per game. Philadelphia slightly lower than league average at 98.8 possessions per game. Philly scores their points by being highly efficient on the offensive end of the court averaging 1.202 points per possession which is 3rd in the NBA. The Pels aren’t as efficient but still manage 112.9PPG. We are seeing New Orleans trend in the positive direction offensively with an efficiency rating of 1.168PPP which ranks 12th best over the last 5 games. Defensively these two teams rank 12th and 13th in points allowed per possession. The Sixers average 17.5 fast break points per game, the Pelicans average 14.8 which is 11th best in the league. Both teams also feast in the paint ranking 9th and 11th in points in the lane. Last season in the two meetings these two combined for 231 and 243 total points. It all adds up to a higher scoring game between these two teams.

#677 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tennessee +2.5 over North Carolina, Wednesday at 7:15 PM ET - We really like this spot for a very good Tennessee team coming off back to back losses in Hawaii one week ago. Those losses were to Purdue (by 4) and Kansas (by 8) who are 2 of the top 3 teams in the nation in KenPom’s power ratings. The Vols have also already faced Syracuse (in Hawaii) and played @ Wisconsin (both double digit wins) in what has been a very tough schedule thus far. On the other side, UNC has played only 1 team ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 teams and that was a loss to Villanova. It’s also very possible the Heels will be without one of their top offensive players, Cormac Ryan (11 PPG), as he injured his ankle late last week in a game and hadn’t practiced at all as of Monday night. Missing his offense will be tough vs a Tennessee team that ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency (#1 last year as well) limiting teams to just 0.87 points per possession. The Vols had their chances against both Kansas and Purdue. The led in the 2nd half of both of those games but scored only 5 points in the final 6 minutes vs Kansas and had a shot to win in the final minute vs the Boilers. Now we’re getting a rested (off for a week) veteran team (all upperclassmen in rotation) off 2 straight losses. They will play with some urgency here and our power ratings have Tennessee as the better team and they are getting points. UNC’s 3 home games this year have been vs teams outside the top 150 and the Heels lost 3 home games a year ago. Last time the Vols paid a visit to the Dean Smith Dome in November 2021, they walked away with a 17 point win as an underdog. We don’t look for a blowout by either team here but we like the Vols to pull the minor upset.

#728 ASA PLAY ON UC Santa Barbara -13 over Northern Arizona, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - UCSB is an unassuming 3-2 on the season but they are better than that. Their 2 losses vs UTEP & Portland State came with starting PG Mitchell on the bench with an injury. Mitchell was the Big West Player of the Year last season and is considered a potential 1st round NBA draft pick. Since Mitchell returned to the lineup, the Gauchos are 3-0 including a win on Monday @ Fresno State as an underdog. The Big West reigning champs (27-8 record last year) have one of the top backcourts on the West Coast with Mitchell, Pierre-Louis, and Anderson, all averaging double digits and combining to put up almost 50 PPG. They are a high scoring team averaging 82 PPG on the season and ranking 11th nationally in eFG%. UCSB ranks in the top 30 in both 2 point % and 3 point % making them really tough to guard. They also make 77% of their FT’s. Northern Arizona will have a tough time keeping up in this game. The Lumberjacks struggle to score (62 PPG), they are poor shooting team making only 41% of their shots (288th), and they are terrible at the FT line making only 55% as a team. NAU can’t score from deep hitting just 25% of their 3’s on the season (344th). They have only 2 wins vs Seattle & VMI and all 4 of their losses have come by at least 9 points vs Hawaii, IPFW, Grand Canyon, and UConn. NAU is small team that struggles on the boards facing a solid rebounding UCSB team. We don’t see how Northern Arizona can keep up here so we’ll lay the points with Santa Barbara at home.