ASA

ASA top play on 10* OVER 6 Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:00 PM ET - The Maple Leafs were handed a 3-0 shutout loss by the Flames on Monday.  Toronto has scored an average of 4.2 goals per game when off a loss this season.  Certainly the Leafs will again respond off defeat here but this is also a team that has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the last 5 games.  In those 4 games the Maple Leafs have allowed an average of 3.5 goals per game.  We are absolutely looking for a 4-3 type game here.  Calgary had allowed an average of 4.3 goals per game in the 4 games previous to the shutout win at Toronto Monday.  Also, the power play performance (0 for 7) for Toronto in that game Monday was entirely unexpected as the Maple Leafs, even including that rare 0 for 7, have converted 33% of their opportunities with the man advantage this season.  An average Leafs game this season is 6.3 goals and this one has a posted total of 6 even though it could easily be higher given the Maple Leafs track record of scoring well off of losses this year.  Based on value and the situation - and the fact the markets have not yet adjusted to a total of 6.5 goals - still holding at 6 as of mid-day, we like OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - When we combined these two team’s overall O/U records we see there is a slight trend towards the Under with a 27 Over & 31 Under combined record. The Spurs are in a tough spot here playing their first game after a 10-day layoff because of Covid protocols. San Antonio had to call up some players from the G-league and will be down to 10-players on the roster tonight. Missing from the Spurs lineup are FIVE double-digit scorers and a combined 71.4 points per game! OKC comes into this game having scored 105 or less points in regulation in 5 of their last nine games and 110 or less in 6 of nine. The Thunder are the WORST offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.050 points per possession, the Spurs aren’t much better (21st) at 1.100PPP. Both teams are solid defensively though with San Antonio ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, the Thunder are 13th in DEFF. When the Spurs have face losing teams with a below .400 winning percentage, they are 5-2 to the Under this season. Tying into that same train of thought, the Thunder are Under 14 of their last twenty when facing a team with a winning record. The bet here is UNDER

#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game.