ASA

ASA 8* PLAY ON Over 41.5 Points - Washington @ Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Historically we like taking Overs when two bad defenses face off and that’s what we’ll do here. Granted these two teams have struggled offensively and only average 6.5PPG (Miami) and 14.6PPG (Washington) but again, their defense numbers are horrendous. Miami is allowing 40.8PPG on the season while the Redskins allow 30.2PPG. It has taken opponents just 11.6 yards gained to score a point against the Dolphins (32nd) and 13.5 yards for anyone to score on the Redskins (28th). Washington QB Keenum will start here, and he’s easily been the most productive quarterback for the Skins. With Keenum under center the Redskins have scored 27, 21 and 15-points. Washington’s offensive numbers are skewed by the fact that over half their games have come against three top six defenses in terms of defensive efficiency. The Dolphins offensive numbers are a bit misleading also as they’ve faced three defenses that rank in the top nine in yards per play defense. The number on this game is key as the league average for total points scored is 44.8PPG so you can see the value we are getting here. Both offenses will finally find some success against bad defenses and get to 21+ points here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public.  This team is simply not very good.  Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins.  The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT.  Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season.  The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less.  They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively.  Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore?  The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here.  Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football.  Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk.  Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals.  The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10.  This one should be close.  Take the points.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Jacksonville -1.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

There is a reason the team with a 2-3 record is favored over the team with the 4-1 record.   Most will look at that an automatically bet the “better” team as an underdog.  We’re not so sure the Saints are the better team right now.  As of this writing well over 60% of the total tickets are on New Orleans, however over 70% of the money has come in on Jacksonville.  Sharp money is coming in on the Jags and we definitely agree with that.  Despite their losing record, Jacksonville outgains their opponents by 6 YPG and +0.2 YPP.  New Orleans, on the other hand, has just one loss but is getting outgained on the year by -15 YPG and -0.4 YPP.  The Saints are 3-0 with Teddy Bridgewater under center but we feel they’ve been very fortunate.  His first start @ Seattle the Saints were outgained by 250 yards but still won.  Then they played host to Dallas and won 12-10 with the Cowboys having 3 turnovers in the game – Saints were +2 in TO margin in the game.  Then last week they beat TB and the Bucs were off a huge win @ LA Rams and on the road for the 2nd straight week which was a very good situation for New Orleans.  Their 4 wins this year have come by a total of 17 points so they are not dominating anyone.  Now they go on the road vs a team that is better than their record.  In their losses Jacksonville outgained Carolina (in a 7 point loss) and outgained Houston (in a 1 point loss) both on the road.  The only game where they didn’t have a chance to win was their season opener vs KC (lost 40-26) when QB Minshew came in for the first action of his career replacing Nick Foles who was injured in the game.  Underrated vs Overrated here in our opinion and we’ll take the home team.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG.