ASA

ASA PLAY ON OVER: Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET

This total opened up at a 9 and has dropped to an 8.5 and this is largely due to the Tigers and Pirates being two of the weaker teams in MLB. However, just because these ball clubs are near or at the bottom of their respective divisions does not mean they don't score runs when facing struggling pitchers. First off, these are two of the worst bullpens in the majors as both teams rank in the bottom 20% of the majors based on bullpen ERA this season. Secondly, each of these starters are likely to get rocked. The Pirates are starting rookie Mitch Keller and he has allowed 6 earned runs in each of his first two starts even though he has not lasted more than 4 innings in either start. As for Tigers starter Daniel Norris, he has a 5.62 ERA in his last three starts and has allowed 23 hits in 16 innings over those three outings. The Detroit lineup has produced poor results recently but facing the rookie Keller will bring out the best in them Tuesday. As for the Pirates lineup against Norris, it is worth noting that Pittsburgh scored an average of 6.1 runs per game in their final 10 games of May and they have carried those stronger results at the plate right into June as well. This month, the Pirates have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in their 15 games month to date. This, of course, has played a big role in the over going 19-6-1 in Pittsburgh's last 26 games. Per our computer math model, this one reaches double digits in runs scored. Bet the OVER in the Pirates game in early evening action Tuesday

ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

While we certainly would not be comfortable laying a -175 price range (the opening number) on the money line on a road team, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the even money price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Cincinnati enters today's game with a 32-38 record on the season. 23 of the Reds 38 losses (including 13 of last 15) have come by 2 or more runs. In fact, Cincinnati's average margin of defeat in those 15 losses is 3 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 48-25 record this season. 34 of the Astros last 42 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Also, 17 of the Astros 21 wins away from Houston this season have come by 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Reds are 1-3 in Anthony DeSclafani's 4 home starts this season and he has a 4.79 ERA in those outings plus has been hit hard in recent home starts. The Astros start Justin Verlander here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 11 earned runs on just 20 hits in 33 and 1 / 3 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 12-4 this season in Verlander's starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are 20-7 this season in games against teams with a losing record. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday