ASA

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER: Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #403

This total made an interesting move this week. It opened at 44.5 and even though more than 75% are on the UNDER, it moved up a point. We liked the OVER to begin with and that move definitely signals a play on here. LSU’s offense is playing much better than most give it credit for. They have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this year. They are perfectly balanced on offense averaging 202 YPG rushing and 202 YPG passing which makes them very tough to defend. Last week against a very good Georgia defense the Tigers put up 36 points and almost 500 yards! We think they’ll do some damage vs a Mississippi State defense that has solid numbers but has played a number of weak offenses including Stephen F Austin, UL Lafayette, Kansas State, and Florida. This will be the most productive offense they’ve faced this season. On the other side of the ball LSU played great last week. They held Georgia to 16 points in a 20 point win. We have a feeling the Tigers put a LOT of emotional effort into that game knowing they were playing a very good Bulldog offense. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if they had a bit of a letdown on that side of the ball. Especially with Alabama on deck after next week’s bye. LSU has been solid defensively but they have given up 21+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Mississippi State’s offense was rolling early in the season and their totals were mainly set in the high 50’s and low 60’s. They then hit a rough patch on offense vs Kentucky and Florida on back to back weekends but bounced back on that side of the ball last week vs Auburn. The Dogs scored 23 points on 418 yards last week and we look for them to land in that range again this week. Where this total sits right now, the oddsmakers are expecting a final score in the range of 26-19 in favor of LSU. We feel both offenses top those point totals and we take the OVER here. Our math model forecast suggests that you can look for a surprisingly high scoring all out shootout in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Purdue Boilermakers (+) over Ohio State Buckeyes, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #334

This is a very dangerous game for the Buckeyes. They simply aren’t playing very well right now while Purdue is playing lights out. OSU wins aren’t looking quite as impressive as we may have originally thought. They came from double digits down to beat TCU which looked great at the time. TCU has since gone on to lose 2 of their next 3 games with their only win coming at home vs Iowa State by just 3 points. The Buckeyes were completely outplayed at PSU (outgained by 100+ yards) and pulled out a 1-point win late. The following week they struggled to pull away from a poor Indiana team a few weeks ago leading by just 8 at half. They pulled away late but it wasn’t an overly impressive performance. Last week they were 30 point favorites vs a Minnesota team that is very young starting a freshman at QB and RB. It was a 9-point game midway through the fourth quarter and the Bucks won by 30-14. Again, not impressive. They are struggling to run the ball averaging 3.2 YPC or less in all 3 of their Big Ten games. Purdue is definitely better than their 3-3 record. They were winless their first 3 games but those losses came by a total of 8 points. They have since won 3 straight games with all 3 coming by at least 13 points. The offense for Purdue is performing at a high level as they’ve averaged 39 PPG over their last 4 games. QB David Blough has been lights out completing 68% of his passes for almost 400 YPG over their last 4 contests. Defensively the Boilers held Illinois, who had rushed for 200+ in every game this year, to just 69 yards on the ground last week. Now facing an OSU team that has struggled to run the ball we think they can make the Buckeyes fairly one-dimensional in this game. Purude has now covered 4 straight games by a combined 64 points. They are undervalued right now. It’s a rare, huge home game at night for them and we think OSU should be put on upset alert in this one. Take the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Kentucky Wildcats (-) over Vanderbilt Commodores, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #312

When a team is rolling they do not necessarily want a bye but when off a loss it can be a welcome chance to regroup and then come out flying immediately in their very next game. This is precisely what we expect from Kentucky here. The Wildcats were 5-0 on the season but then two weeks ago the Cats faced Texas A & M and lost by 6 as it was clearly Kentucky's worst game of the season. Even with the defeat the Wildcats are allowing just 13.8 points per game on the year. The Cats defense has been rock solid this season while the Commodores come into this game having allowed 35.5 points per game their past 4 games. Vanderbilt's defense has allowed more yardage in their last 4 games than Kentucky's D has allowed this entire season - 6 games! The Commodores are allowing an average of 510.8 yards per game their last 4 games. The Wildcats are giving up just 304.8 yards per game on the year. From a situational perspective, it doesn't get much better than this. Kentucky is off a bye week which followed their very first loss of the season while Vandy has lost 4 of its last 5 games and the only win was by just 4 points against an FCS school. The Commodores were favored by 4 touchdowns in that game and yet won by only 4 points! Vanderbilt is playing their 8th straight week while Kentucky is rested. Also, Vandy is on a 1-10 ATS run against SEC foes as they continue to prove to be outclassed against conference opposition. The Wildcats should dominate the ground game here again versus the Commodores. That was a key in last years win by a 23 point margin for Kentucky and that was on the road! The Wildcats have outgained Vanderbilt 490-201 in rushing yardage the past two meetings. Per our math model forecast, the hungry home favorite to control this one from start to finish as the Cats defense continues to dominate while Vandy's porous D continues to be burned by big plays. Look for a home blowout win in this Saturday evening SEC match-up.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Temple Owls (-) over Cincinnati Bearcats, Saturday at Noon ET: Game #314

Cincinnati is a ranked team and the Bearcats are 6-0 SU on the season. Of course this begs the question how can they be an underdog against a 4-3 Temple team? The answer to that is that nothing is ever as easy as it seems on the surface! The fact is that the odds makers are projecting the Cats to suffer their first loss of the season and we are too! Temple has played the tougher schedule in comparison with Cincinnati. Also, the Bearcats lose some momentum with the bye week last week. A team usually doesn't benefit from a bye when they were already rolling in the first place. What a bye usually does in a case like this is actually let some air out of the tires and the team all of the sudden loses their timing (in terms of execution) and suddenly is no longer on a roll. This is the first time this season that the Bearcats will face a team that has a winning record at the time of the match-up. That is certainly noteworthy as Cincinnati went 2-7 ATS (and 0-9 SU!) the past two seasons when facing a team with a winning record! The Owls continue to be a covering machine and that includes going 17-3 ATS (15-5 SU) in their last 20 games versus American Athletic Conference opponents. The Owls have allowed just 108 passing yards per game their past 5 games. Temple won each of the last two meetings versus Cincinnati by an average margin of 15 points per game. Our math model is forecasting another rout win in this match-up! Look for a home blowout in this very early Saturday afternoon AAC match-up.