ASA

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.