ASA

ASA NHL PLAY 8* ON OVER: Boston Bruins versus Dallas Stars, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET

Getting an NHL total at 5 is rare and is a great value.  This over 5 comes at a price of -135 but the value of getting a 5 rather than a 5.5 is exceptional.  The Stars, since mid-December, have played 31 games and only 5 of those games have totaled less than 5 goals.  In fact, since mid-January, 17 of 18 Dallas games have totaled at least 5 goals.  The Bruins, since early December, have seen 27 of their 36 games total at least 5 goals.  This game has playoff race implications of course but the potency of these two clubs in terms of offensive production is being underestimated.  Boston has allowed 17 goals their last 3 games.  The Bruins, before an ugly home loss to Calgary Tuesday, had scored 4 or more goals in 6 of 7 home games!  Dallas has won 6 of 8 road games and scored 3.5 goals per game during this stretch.  Per our computer math model, both teams produce well in the offensive zone in this one.  Bet the OVER in Boston in NHL early evening action Thursday 

ASA’s play on: Portland Trailblazers +9.5 over Indiana Pacers, 8PM ET

We are playing on the Portland Trailblazers and the points here. The Blazers are playing for their playoff lives right now and must do it without Damian Lillard. Indiana is entrenched in the East and still adjusting to a rotating lineup with recently returned Victor Oladipo. Indiana is 3-7 SU their last ten games but do own one quality win over the Bucks at home. Portland is 4-6 SU their last ten games but have also faced a tough schedule of late. The Blazers have been admittedly bad on the road this season with a 10-20 SU record but their average loss margin of -5.6PPG is good enough to cover here. Indiana is 20-10 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +4.7PPG which again is not enough to cover this spread tonight. These two teams essentially offset each other in terms of home/road efficiency ratings so we don’t see the Pacers having any clear advantage which would lead to a double-digit win. Portland has covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court and 12 of the last 14 overall. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET

The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country.  They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game.  That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month.  Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG).  The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him.  Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points.  Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts.  During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have.  Impressive run to say the least.  During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep.  Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable.  The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10.  Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points.  The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late.  UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points.  We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much.  Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition.  40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league.  The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned.  Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games.  Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency).  That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here.  We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. 

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET

As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them.  You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that.  However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost.  Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State.  The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place.  If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit.  NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year.  In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77.  In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73.  Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for.  On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury.  He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game.  His status is up in the air for Thursday.  South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.  Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot.  If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play.  Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover.