ASA

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

Yesterday's game saw the Marlins score 3 in the top of the first only to see the Braves answer with 4 in the bottom of the first.  7 runs after just 1 inning.  Easy over, right?  Nope.  The game stalled out, for the most part, after that early surge and it ended up not going over the total as Atlanta went on to a 5-4 win.  That sets this one up nicely as it keeps this match-up off the "radar screen" of people who play streaks with totals in MLB.  The fact is the Braves are one of the top hitting teams in the majors and the pitching match-up Tuesday sets this one up nicely to be a slugfest.  Jose Urena, Miami's starting pitcher tonight, is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA in his career against the Braves.  Also, Urena just faced Atlanta 2 weeks ago and struggled in that outing.  He is now a combined 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA the past two seasons combined.  He is just getting going this year as he only returned to the rotation earlier this month but in his two starts against NL East teams (lineups familiar with him) he allowed 9 runs (8 earned) in 9 and 1 / 3 innings.  The Braves start Bryse Wilson here.  He has only made 13 appearances (5 starts) at the MLB level and the results are not impressive.  Wilson has a 7.01 ERA and opponents have hit .319 against at the MLB level.  The Marlins just saw him for 4 innings earlier this month and though Wilson survived it he was pitching in and out of jams.  More of the same expected here per our computer math model but this time the Marlins do more damage at the plate.  With both starters hit hard yesterday, each team used a lot of bullpen in yesterday's game which also helps the cause in terms of some potential bullpen struggles in the forecast today after these starters each make an early exit!  Bet the OVER in Atlanta in early evening action Tuesday. 

ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 214 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9PM ET

There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. Our analytics say Game 3 is going to be very similar to Game 2 in terms of pace and field goal percentages which will yield another UNDER the Total win. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. Both teams shot over 45% for the game but when you aren’t playing fast and don’t get as many field goal attempts you just can’t score as many points. The Nuggets also did a much better job of keeping the Lakers off the free throw line as they limited them to just 19 attempts. Combined these two teams are on a 11-0-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER