ASA

ASA FREE PLAY ON Philadelphia +125 over New Jersey, Sunday at 7 PM ET - There is no doubt the Flyers are dealing with some injury issues right now and this is particularly true at the center position.  However, the Devils have lost 5 of 6 games.  New Jersey falls into the category of what many call a "false favorite" because, the fact is, can one really justify the slumping Devils being worthy of being priced in the -145 to -150 range against a solid division rival?   Philly has seen Martin Jones come up strong in the majority of his starts this season.  He is expected to be in net tonight as Carter Hart gets a reprieve.  Note that Jones was recently fantastic against a very strong Panthers team filled with top-end scoring talent.  The Flyers lost that game in the shootout but Jones was superb.  The Flyers game against the Islanders for Tuesday got cancelled due to covid issues for the Isles so now the only game on Philly's schedule between this Sunday and next Sunday is a Wednesday game with the Rangers.  Desperate for some wins and to pick up some points in the standings, look for the Flyers to come out very hungry and with a chip on their shoulder.  The Devils did not look good in their loss to the Predators and the slump of New Jersey continues here. The Flyers also have been in a slump but faced extremely strong teams in all 5 games!  Look for them to now take advantage of facing a struggling divisional foe.  

#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Minnesota vs San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both these offenses are humming right now and our projections have this one landing in the 50’s. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their last 5 games including putting up 31 last week vs a Green Bay defense that had allowed more than 21 points in any of their previous 5 games. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games including 31 two weeks ago vs a very good Rams defense and 30 last week vs a Jacksonville defense that had allowed 6 points to Buffalo 2 weeks prior and 16 offensive points to Indy in their previous game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA per football outsiders. Minnesota has gone over the total in 4 of their 5 road games this year with an average of 58 points scored in those games. The Viking defense has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of those 5 road games. San Fran at home has gone over in 3 of their 5 games with an average point total of 49 per game. The Niners defense has solid overall numbers this season but vs some of the better offenses they’ve faced they have given up points (Green Bay 30, Indy 30, and Arizona 31). This one has the makings of a back and forth game with each team needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Take the OVER

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite.

ASA play on 8* Houston Texans -2.5 over NY Jets, 1 PM ET - It’s the battle of the 2-8 teams Sunday when the Jets travel to Houston to take on the Texans. This is not a sexy NFL game by any means, but we bet the games on statistics not style or the logos on their helmets. Houston is coming off a solid road win in Tennessee but only managed 190-yards in the win. That was a result of short fields and great scoring opportunities as Titans turned the ball over 5 times. The Texans are much better with veteran QB Taylor under center, and it shows with their 2-1 SU record with him as the starter. The Jets are forced to go back to rookie QB Zach Wilson who is coming off an injury and has struggled this season with the 31st worst QBR rating in the league. The Texans secondary picked off Titans QB Tannehill 4 times last week and could have another big day against Wilson who has 4 TD’s to 9 INT’s on the season. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive side of the football as the Jets are last in the league in most categories, including total DVOA. The Texans have the 10th best defensive DVOA in the NFL. New York is 0-4 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of minus -21.8PPG. The Texans get a solid home win here.

ASA play on 8* Indianapolis Colts +3.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 PM ET - Indy is quietly putting together a solid late season surge with a 5-1 SU record their last six games, 3 straight wins. The lone loss in that stretch came in OT against the 8-3 Titans. In that stretch of games, other than the win against Buffalo last week, the wins have come against Jacksonville, the Jets, San Francisco and Houston. Granted, those last 4 teams have a 11-29 SU record, but a win is a win in the NFL. Last week Colts RB Jonathan Taylor had a huge game against the Bills with 185-rushing yards and 4 TD’s and those numbers came against a Buffalo defense that was #1 defensive DVOA. The Colts average 5.2-Yards Per Rush which is tops in the NFL with Cleveland. When we look at raw efficiency numbers, we find these two teams are very close. The Colts defensive DVOA is 9th, Tampa Bay is 7th. Indianapolis is 11th in offensive DVOA, Tampa Bay is 1st. The Bucs have been favored in their last five road games and have yet to cover and have lost 3 of those games outright. The Colts are on a 4-0 ATS streak as a dog.