ASA

#939 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs (-115) – Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 6 PM ET - The Braves Tyler Mahle gets the start here and he was fantastic against the Phillies in the Wild Card round plus he was superb against the Dodgers when he faced them in the regular season.  He wrapped up the regular season with a rough final start versus the Reds but allowed only 7 earned runs in his 8 starts preceding that and those were his first 8 starts with Atlanta after he came over from the Giants.  In fact, including post-season, Mahle has now allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in 9 of his 10 starts in a Braves uniform.  So, excluding the one rougher outing versus Cincinnati in his final regular season start, Mahle has been fantastic for Atlanta.  As for the Dodgers Tyler Glasnow, he had a 1.69 ERA in his 6 post-season appearances (3 starts) with the Dodgers last season and now he makes his first start of this post-season.  Glasnow missed a lot of this season but he is a strong hurler that went 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA in his 7 road starts in the regular season.  We look for a pitchers duel here and 9 of the 10 games in Divisional series action so far have totaled 7 or less runs!  The only one that topped 7 runs did reach just 8 runs and that was Game 1 of this series.  The other 9 games in ALDS/NLDS action have averaged 5 runs apiece and each of the last two games in this series have landed at 5 or less runs.  We expect the same Wednesday in a crucial Game 4 for the Braves in Atlanta.  Under gets the call here. 

#306 ASA PLAY ON Florida International -6.5 over New Mexico State, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - These teams have similar records with FIU at 2-2 and NMSU at 2-3 and they’ve played similar strength of schedules (both outside the top 110 SOS). FIU has the much better overall stats and they are in a much better situational spot. The Panthers have outgained every opponent they’ve faced (+YPG) including their 2 losses @ FAU and @ USF. New Mexico State has been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-YPG) with the exception of Mercyhurst. FIU has a +172 YPG differential and a +1.8 YPP differential. Compare that to the Aggies differentials of +29 and +0.6 and you can see the statistical difference we were referring to above. Situationally, NMSU is playing their 6th game and on the road on a short week (played Saturday and now on the road Wednesday) while FIU is playing their 5th game and had last week off. We’re getting a huge edge defensively in this game. The Panthers are top 10 in both total defense and YPP allowed and they’re giving up just 14 PPG. The Aggies rank outside the top 85 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up 26 PPG. FIU loves to throw the ball on offense with QB Kohl (transfer from Iowa State) and they do it well 27th in YPG passing and they should have success here vs a NMSU D that ranks 108th vs the pass. New Mexico State had some solid success under head coach Jerry Kill a few years back but since Sanchez took over as the head man they have a record of 9-20 SU. They’ve historically been poor on the road winning only 9 of their last 44 road tilts. We like FIU by at least a TD at home on Wednesday night.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -1.5 vs. NY Liberty, 7:30pm ET - The Dream are clearly capable of winning it all this year and we’ve been down on the Liberty all season long and will fade them again here. Over the last 10 games the Dream have a net rating of +19.2, by far the best number in the league, the Liberty are +3.7 in that same 10-game stretch. Atlanta can get it done on both ends of the court ranking 4th on offensive rating and 3rd defensively. In comparison, the Liberty ranks 7th in DNR and 6th on ONR. In the opener of this series the Dream led by as many as 16-points in the 4th quarter and really won that game rather easily. New York doesn’t have their typical size advantage they normally enjoy and can’t dominate the glass as they often do against lesser opponents. Atlanta has the best rebounding percentage in the league, the Liberty are 2nd. Atlanta has a veteran case with Howard, Gray, Canada and Bonner and won’t rest on their laurels against a Liberty team that is a yearly contender. Not letdown here for the Dream and they go up 2-0.