ASA

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 at Denver Nuggets, 10:30 PM ET - This has been a wild series with the visitor winning all four games. Minnesota won the opening games of the series in Denver with the second of the two coming by 26-points. Denver then went to Minnesota and won by 27 and 8-points. If we focus on Game 4 there were a few isolated outliers that we don’t expect to happen in Game 5. The Nuggets shot 57% as a team overall, 45% from deep and Aaron Gordon put up a ridiculous shooting performance with 11/12 from the field including 2-2 on 3-pointers. The Nuggets bench did not contribute in the first two games of the series, then played well in Game 4 with Braun, Holiday and Jackson combining for 8 of 14 shooting. The Wolves didn’t play badly in G4, but Anthony Edwards clearly needs Edwards, Conley or Gobert to shoulder more of the scoring load. Minnesota has lost two straight games 5 times this season and did not lose 3 in a row once. They have covered 4 of the last five meetings with the Nuggets in Denver and the one game they didn’t cover they lost by 9-points as a +7.5-point dog. The first four games of this series (like all the series) have been physical dog fights, and the deeper Wolves have the advantage here in altitude. Minnesota’s bench had the 2nd best Net rating in the regular season of +3.1, Denver was 21st. I can’t call for an outright win by Minnesota but expect a very tight game and will grab whatever points are available.

#951 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -135 over New York Mets, Tuesday at 1:10 PM ET - The Phillies have the best record in baseball this season and they also are happy to finally be facing a right-handed starter today.  Loaded with some big left-handed sticks, the Phillies are more comfortable against righties but have recently remained red hot despite facing a slew of southpaw starting pitchers.  Today they face Jose Butto and he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts.  Also, he also allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings in his 3 appearances against Philadelphia in his career.  As for Phillies starter Aaron Nola, he is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in his 3 road starts this season.  Nola has given up only 21 hits in his last 31 innings when facing the Mets in New York in recent seasons.  The Phillies are 14-6 on the road and the Mets are 10-13 at home this season.  Philadelphia is 19-6 this season when facing a right-handed starter.  The Mets are hitting .229 in road games which is one of the worst marks in the majors.  The Phillies are one of the top hitting teams in the majors away from home this season. Philadelphia has won 21 of 26 games and the Mets have lost 13 of 20 games.  Two teams going opposite directions and line value with the Phillies at a reasonable price.  We will lay it here.  Phillies get the call in this one Tuesday.  

ASA play on 10* OVER 215 Indiana Pacers at NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The first two games of this series played in New York finished with 238 and 251 total points. In Game 3 in Indiana, they combined for 217 total points and in Game 4 they produced just 210 total points. One of the two teams has scored 120+ in three of the four playoff games thus far in the series. In their last ten meetings they have gone Over this number 8 of ten times. In the postseason the Knicks have a defensive net rating of 119.8 which is 15 out of sixteen teams. The Pacers have a DNR of 117.1 which is 12th worst. Offensively though the Pacers have the best net rating at 121.2, the Knicks are 4th of all playoff teams at 117.1. The loss of Anunoby for the Knicks is a huge hit for them defensively and the Pacers have exploited that loss with an EFG% of 59.1% in this series. The Pacers defense has been bad all season long (finished the regular season 24th in defensive efficiency) and the Knicks have knocked down shots against them to the tune of 54.6% EFG%. The Pacers are going to continue to play fast and now have confidence after two home wins to even the series. The Knicks will get a big lift from the home crowd and should rebound off that horrible Game 4 showing. The bet here is OVER the total.

#200165 ASA PLAY ON Manchester City -1.5 -110 over Tottenham, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Manchester City is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1.5 goals on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. City has a chance to win the title again this season. They are in 2nd place but, by virtue of Arsenal finishing in a draw with Liverpool Monday, City can overtake Arsenal at the top with a win here.  We foresee not only a win here for Manchester City but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with City is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Totenham is off a win but had lost 4 straight prior to that and 3 of the 4 losses were by 2 or more goals.  City has won 7 straight games in Premier League contests and all 7 wins were by at least 2 goals and now have their sights set on winning it all as the door flung wide open with Arsenal's draw yesterday. Take Manchester City on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA play on Connecticut Sun -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 7:30 PM ET - The deserved hype surrounding rookie sensation Caitlyn Clark has given the WNBA a huge boost in popularity AND has forced the oddsmakers to inflate the Fever’s value. The last two times these teams met on this court the Sun were favored by 10 and 12-points respectively. Connecticut had a +3.72 average margin of victory last season and finished the regular season with a 27-13 SU record. The Sun started the season off with a 4-1 SU record a year ago and finished the season with a 13-7 SU record on their home court. Indiana had a negative point differential of minus 4PPG last season and were 7-13 SU on the road, 13-27 SU overall. The Fever didn’t get off to a great start last season with a 1-3 record in May. Clark clearly is a HUGE addition but she is a horrible defender and Indiana won’t improve on that end of the court with her in the lineup. Indiana was last in the league in overall defensive net rating and last in 3PT% D allowing opponents to make 37.53% of their attempts. In comparison, the Sun allowed just 78.97PPG best in the WNBA and held opponents to 32% 3-points shooting. Connecticut had the 3rd best Net rating in the WNBA at +4.4, the Fever had the 9th worst at -4.4. The Sun have beaten this Fever team 8 straight times and will be primed to hand the rookie her first pro loss.