ASA

English Premier League #200093/200094 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-175) – Bournemouth at Tottenham, Saturday at 10 am et - The last five meetings between these clubs in which Tottenham is hosting in Premier League action have averaged 4.6 goals and each of the five games totaled at least 4 goals!  Tottenham has scored 5 goals in their first two matches in this new season and Bournemouth played out a 4-2 thriller in their lone road match so far in this campaign. Bournemouth is dangerous with Semenyo on the pitch but Tottenham had a home draw versus the Cherries last season plus lost the away match 1-0.  That being said, there is not doubt the hosts are well-motivated here.  They also are well-rested and so we expect the Hotspur to emphasize attacking here.  Unsurprisingly (given the above), our computer math model is showing the sweet spot range for this total is in the 4 to 5 goal range for early Saturday action!  Per all of the above, you can see why we like the over plenty in this one and why we are willing to lay a price to have the over at 2.5 goals!   

#203 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +5.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We think Northwestern, coming off a disappointing 4-8 season, will surprise some people this year. They have a very solid, veteran defense and their QB Stone (transfer from SMU) gives them potentially their best player at that key position in a while. Head coach Braun has raved about his defense’s experience and depth and we expect to be very good. Stone is a 5th year senior who threw for 3,200 yards and 28 TD’s two years ago @ SMU before losing his starting job to Jennings last year. He’s hungry after last year’s situation and he has an impressive 13-3 career record as a starter. Tulane is coming off a 9-3 regular season, however they were rolled in the AAC Championship game (35-14 loss vs Army) and in their bowl game (33-8 loss vs Florida). They only have 2 starters back on offense and their biggest loss was at QB when freshman phenom Mensah transferred to Duke. Nobody in the Tulane camp has separated themselves at that key position and a starter has not been named which is concerning. BYU transfer Retzlaff might be a perfect fit later in the season but he just got on campus in late July and is still learning the ropes. In the meantime, it might be Sullivan who has been a backup / part time starter in his career which included a stint @ Northwestern. The Green Wave simply don’t have a lot of experience back from last year’s team and we think they are overvalued due to last year’s run. They rolled over a number of poor opponents last year and the only 2 teams that beat that had a winning record in the regular season were Navy and Louisiana. The Cats have been great as a short underdog racking up an 18-5 ATS record as a puppy of less than a TD (dates back to 2014). This one stays close and NW should have a shot at the upset.

#193 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +6.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like UTEP to be greatly improved this year coming off a poor 3-9 season last year. It was head coach Walden is in his 2nd year and he brings back both coordinators so they have some stability. His team improved throughout the year in 2024 and over their final 6 games they were 3-3 with 2 tight losses by 4 and 7 points. So they are carrying some positive momentum into this season. Utah State, on the other hand, has had a complete turnover in their program. Veteran coach Bronco Mendenhall takes over and while he is a solid coach, this turnaround will take some time with new systems on both sides of the ball. Utah State was just 4-8 last season (3-3 at home). Mendenhall has only 1 offensive starter and 3 defensive starters back to work with. The defense was brutal last year allowing 40 PPG (129th) and it won’t be easy meshing nearly a full new team early in the season, most who haven’t played together. UTEP has 2 very good options at QB including former USC & Boise State transfer Nelson who was a 5* coming out of HS. He will start this game, however the Miners also have Locklear as an option at QB and he was their starter last year. USU defense allowed 40+ points 7 times last year including 50 or more 3 times. Tough to lay almost a TD with that defense. USU has covered just once the last 7 times they were favored and we’ll take the points with an improving and undervalued UTEP team.