Handicapper Art Aronson of AAA Sports Plays Free Picks & Best Bets

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON

While Carolina was the call for Game 6, the home team has won every game in this series and we don't see that changing tonight in Game 7. Home teams won both Game 7's last night in the Stanley Cup playoffs with Boston and San Jose each advancing. This series has seen the home team really dominate, including a 6-0 win by the Capitals in Game 5. While each team has tallied 17 goals in the series, scoring has been really lopsided in favor of the home team. Washington has scored a total of 14 goals in the three home games in the series as opposed to just three in Carolina. The Hurricanes have scored just five in the three games here in D.C. and 12 at home. The Hurricanes have lost six in a row as a money line underdog while the Capitals are 6-0 the last six times they have been a money line favorite in the playoffs. The Caps are also 16-5 the last 21x they've been favored on the money line, period. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is a 10* play on UTAH

Utah stayed alive by winning Game 4, handily. They beat the Rockets 107-91 and that margin of victory should have them confident enough to head into Game #5 with a sense that further extending their season is a possibility. We're not saying the Jazz will win this one, but taking the points is the right way to go. Houston did not shoot the ball well either game in Salt Lake City. They shot 38.4% as a team in Game #3 with James Harden missing his first 15 attempts from the field. Then they shot 35.4% in Game #4, collectively missing their final 13 attempts from three-point range. Yes, the series now shifts back to Houston. But the Jazz are going to compete here a lot more than they did in either Games #1 and #2. This is too many points for Houston to lay to a desperate Utah team. Play on UTAH

AAA

This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Boston

This three-game report really sees us "bucking" the early season trends. We're going Over with the top Under team (Cincinnati) and Under on one of the top Over teams (Baltimore). Right below the Reds in the Under "pecking order" is a Detroit team whose games are averaging less than 7.0 runs (14-8 Under). They've scored the third fewest runs while giving up the fifth fewest. But, in line with the rest of today's card, we're going the other way today. Yesterday, they swept Boston in a day/night doubleheader here at Fenway Park (won 7-4 and 4-2). The Red Sox couldn't possibly be more disappointing and a big reason for that is they have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. Only Baltimore has given up more. Tonight's starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been a big part of the problem as he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through four starts. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very bad this year. Tyson Ross will start for the Tigers and he has struggled in both road starts, walking more batters (8) than he has struck out (7). His ERA and WHIP in those two starts are: 4.91 and 1.55 respectively. Play OVER Detroit-Boston

AAA

analysis coming

This is an 8* Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati

The Reds are by far and away the top Under team in baseball right now. They came into last night's game vs. Atlanta sporting a 17-4 Under mark in the first 21 games. But wouldn't you know - last night's game went Over with the Reds bats even showing up for once. They won 7-6, which snapped a 7-game Under streak. Three of the Reds previous four Overs came in a row, but since then the Under had been 10-1. Tonight, we'll look for another Over. Last night was the Reds most runs scored in a game since crushing Miami 14-0 back on the 9th. They may be last in batting average, but as we saw last night, Atlanta can be accommodating. The Braves are giving up 6.3 runs/game on the road, the highest average in all of baseball. Mike Soroka will start for them here and he has just one start under his belt. On the flip side, Atlanta is scoring 6.2 runs/game itself on the road. Is it any wonder the Over is 7-2 in their nine road games? Braves hitters are quite familiar with the pitcher they'll face today, Tanner Roark, who spent the last several seasons with Washington. Play OVER Atlanta-Cincinnati 

AAA