Handicapper Art Aronson of AAA Sports Plays Free Picks & Best Bets

This is a 10* play on CALGARY

We played against the Flames last night. It was our Game of the Week. The Flames were in Vegas, a tough place to play, and the Golden Knights were hungry off back to back losses. The final score ended up being 6-2. Calgary has not won or lost consecutive times in the first two weeks of the season. So we expect them to battle back despite tonight being the second game of a back to back and third road game in four night. San Jose had not won a game this year before beating Chicago 5-4 Thursday. In the way, they equaled their number of goals scored from the first four games combined. With the situation being what it is, Cam Talbot will be in goal for the first time for the Flames. Any questions about him should be offset by the fact Sharks goalie Martin Jones has really struggled so far. He has an .854 save percentage and 4.56 goals against average in three games. San Jose has lost all three. The Flames are a great "grab" at plus money. Play on CALGARY

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Astros are 4-2 off a shutout loss this season and 16-7 the last three seasons in this very situation. A stunning 7-0 defeat in Game 1 should only have them stronger for Game 2 when they'll send out Verlander, who is 4-0 in his postseason career against the Yankees including a pair of wins in the 2017 ALCS. Verlander lost his last start, which came on short rest. He has not dropped consecutive decisions even one time this year. Houston is 25-11 in his 36 starts, an individual campaign which could produce another Cy Young. Verlander is 11-4 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When he pitched here in Game 1 of the LDS, he didn't allow a run in seven innings and gave up just one hit. The Astros home record this year is 63-22. They don't lose back to back home games often. They did lose three in a row to Oakland last month. But before that it happened only three times all year and not since June. James Paxton is the Game 2 starter for the Yankees. The Yanks have won 12 straight times with Paxton on the mound. But he wasn't especially great in either of the last two and this is his toughest assignment of the season. The Astros are 21-5 the last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers

AAA

This is an 8* play on DALLAS

Dallas started 3-0, but is now 3-2 after suffering losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. So the Jets will be a welcome sight this Sunday. Sam Darnold is making his return here for the Jets, but they are more than just a quarterback away from competing with this Cowboys team. Dallas has the #1 ranked offense in the league. The Jets are 32nd. Dallas is 2nd on defense in number of third down conversions allowed. The Jets offense is the worst at converting third downs. The Cowboys feasted on losing teams in the 3-0 start, beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. QB Prescott is 13-5-2 ATS against losing teams. He's also 7-2-1 ATS as a starter when favored by more than six points. Prescott had a career-high 463 yards passing last week. The Jets have gained only 233  yards total the last two games. Play on DALLAS

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* on MIAMI

Here it is. Perhaps the worst regular season matchup we've seen in some time. It's the 0-5 Redskins taking on the 0-4 Dolphins. The only reason Miami didn't lose last week is because it was off. They have been the league's worst team so far, getting outscored 163-26. Washington has the dubious honor of being the league's next worst team. They've scored just 10 points the last two games. They've given up at least 31 in four of the five games. Just to show how unique this matchup is, it's only the second time in the Super Bowl era that a team at 0-5 or worse has been listed as a road favorite. The first was the Redskins in 1998 and they lost the game outright. While Miami is off a bye, Washington just fired its coach (Jay Gruden). While there's no denying how dubious the Dolphins have been, a team as bad as the Redskins should never be a road favorite. They (the Redskins) haven't been favored in any game since Week 9 of last year. This will be the 12 time in the Super Bowl era that two winless teams are meeting after Week 5. The home team is 8-3 ATS the previous 11 matchups. 0-4 or worse teams coming off a bye are 26-10 ATS all-time. Bill Callahan is the interim Redskins coach and he ended up being a disaster in Oakland. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI

We don't expect the Ravens to lose here. But double-digit favorite isn't their best role. They are just 3 for their last 13 ATS in it. Also, John Harbaugh hasn't been good when laying points to the Bengals. Not only is he 4-11-1 including 1-6 L7 at the window, but he's gone just 7-9 straight up in those games, also losing six of the last eight outright. The Bengals are 0-5, but they've been a tougher out than you might think. Three of the losses have been in games decided by seven points or less. In all three, Cincy had a fourth quarter lead and two of them they were up at the two-minute warning. Two of the three close games were on the road where they're now on a 6-2 ATS run despite losing all eight games straight up. Baltimore may have success running the ball in this game, but that just means it'll be a "shorter" game with less big plays. Plus the Ravens defense has not been good recently, giving up 96 points the last three weeks. They are allowing 6.9 yards per play, which is worse than the Bengals much maligned defense. The last six meetings here in Baltimore have all been games decided by seven points or less. The Ravens have beaten Miami, Arizona and a Pittsburgh team that was down to its third-string QB. Two of those wins were by six points or less. Grab the points in this AFC North battle.  Play on CINCINNATI

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