Handicapper Art Aronson of AAA Sports Plays Free Picks & Best Bets

This is an 8* on TORONTO

The Maple Leafs look to make it nine wins in their last 10 games as they visit Anaheim tonight. The Leafs only loss since Nov 10 came at home, by a score of 2-0 to Pittsburgh. Since that loss, they have rattled off three consecutive road wins where they outscored the Islanders, Kings and Sharks 13-3. The Leafs are now tied for first place (with Florida) in the Atlantic Division with 31 points. They allow the third fewest number of goals per game in the league. Anaheim was once hot itself, winning eight in a row from October 31st through November 16th. But the Ducks have since dropped three of four, though they did win 4-0 here at home on Friday. But the team they beat (Ottawa) is one of the worst in the league right now. The fact the Ducks are third in the Pacific is something we’d call “surprising.” They’ve been a tough out at home and are also strong on the penalty kill. But Toronto, having claimed six straight road games, is in a different class. The Leafs have allowed just 11 goals their last nine games, making them a VERY difficult team to beat. We like them to get the two points on Sunday. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on CAR

Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA

AAA

This is an 8* on JAX

Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE

AAA

This is a 10* on TB

Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY

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