Sean Murphy

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Astros are in a strong bounce-back spot after suffering their second straight loss to the Brewers on Tuesday night. Despite the recent setbacks, Houston’s offense remains productive, ranking 10th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last seven days. That’s a stark contrast to the Brewers, who have cooled off significantly and now sit 28th in the same metric.

Framber Valdez will look to steady the ship for Houston, and while the Astros have lost each of his last four starts, Valdez hasn’t pitched poorly. He’s just one outing removed from tossing a complete game against the Royals and enters Wednesday with a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Expect a more favorable result here against a struggling Milwaukee lineup.

The Brewers will counter with Quinn Priester, who continues to get starts out of necessity rather than merit. Priester has struggled in his five outings this season, compiling a concerning 5.35 FIP and 1.76 WHIP. He’s had difficulty keeping runners off base, and that’s a dangerous combination against a Houston offense capable of capitalizing.

With the clear edge both at the plate and on the mound, this sets up as a good spot for Houston to salvage the series finale.

Take Houston. Projected score: Astros 6, Brewers 4.

My selection is on New York over Arizona at 3:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Mets are well-positioned to bounce back in the rubber match of this series following Tuesday’s 5-1 loss. Kodai Senga gets the start and gives New York a distinct edge on the mound. The right-hander has been outstanding through six starts this season, posting a 2.78 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. More importantly, Senga has dominated this Arizona lineup historically—holding current D’Backs hitters to a combined .148 batting average (8-for-54) and a microscopic .368 OPS.

On the other side, Merrill Kelly takes the mound for Arizona. While his WHIP is a tidy 1.06, his FIP sits at a less impressive 4.41, suggesting some regression is in play. The Diamondbacks have dropped each of his last two starts, and he’ll now face a Mets lineup that has slugged its way to a .858 OPS against him in 65 at-bats.

The bullpen edge also tilts in New York’s favor, as the Mets rank fourth in the majors in xFIP, compared to the D’Backs, who’ve slipped to 11th in the same category due in part to injuries. With a superior starter, better relief depth, and a favorable matchup history, this is a good spot to buy low on the Mets.

Take New York. Projected score: Mets 4, Diamondbacks 3.

My selection is on Florida over Toronto at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Panthers dropped Game 1 in Toronto by a narrow 5-4 margin, but the underlying metrics point to a strong bounce-back spot for them in Game 2. Despite surrendering five goals, Florida's penalty kill was sharp, holding the Maple Leafs scoreless on five power play chances—an encouraging sign given Toronto's reliance on special teams to generate offense.

Florida has shown impressive resilience in these playoffs, avoiding back-to-back losses thus far and responding to each defeat with focused efforts, winning the following games by a combined score of 10-4. The Panthers have the edge in physicality and depth scoring and should be more disciplined and dialed in defensively after Monday’s high-event affair.

It’s also worth noting that Toronto, while explosive offensively at times, has been slightly less potent on home ice, averaging just 3.1 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena this season—lower than their road average. Florida can take advantage of any overconfidence from the Leafs after a Game 1 win, and has a strong track record of adapting quickly mid-series under head coach Paul Maurice.

Take Florida. Projected score: Panthers 4, Maple Leafs 2.

My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Celtics dropped a tough one in overtime in Game 1, but we’ll confidently back them to respond with authority in Game 2. Boston simply struggled to shoot the basketball on Monday night, going just 34-of-97 from the field (35%) despite controlling pace and generating a high volume of looks. That’s unlikely to happen again, especially against a Knicks squad that expended a ton of energy to secure the Game 1 upset and already accomplished its mission of earning a split in Boston.

The Knicks, playing with motivation from a recent home loss to the Celtics in early April, caught the C’s in a bit of a flat spot in the opener. Now it’s Boston with the edge in urgency and emotion as it looks to avoid falling into an 0-2 series hole before heading to Madison Square Garden. This is a seasoned Celtics team that’s been dominant at home all season and should come out much sharper, particularly at the offensive end where it underperformed Monday.

Look for a more efficient effort from Boston and a letdown from a Knicks team in a dangerous Game 2 spot.

Take Boston. Projected score: Celtics 111, Knicks 94.

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Denver at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Thunder let one slip away in Game 1, but I expect a sharp response in Game 2. Despite the loss, Oklahoma City still managed to attempt 100 field goals—clear evidence of their ability to control pace and generate scoring chances. Denver may have pulled off the upset, but the margin was razor-thin, and the Nuggets didn’t show a clear path to replicating that effort—especially with the Thunder owning such a dominant home-court profile.

OKC is 37-7 straight up and 29-14-1 against the spread at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.7 points per game. Monday’s result snapped an eight-game winning streak, but that only strengthens the case for a bounce-back effort. This is a young, hungry team with a strong defensive core and the ability to wear down opponents over 48 minutes. I doubt Denver will show the same urgency in Game 2, having already secured the split on the road.

Expect a much cleaner effort from the Thunder offensively and a better job closing the door late.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Thunder 116, Nuggets 98.