Frank Sawyer

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 3/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Under the Total in the game between Illinois and Houston in the Sweet 16. Illinois (26-8) has won four of their last five games after their 76-55 victory against VCU as an 11.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. The Fighting Illini has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten, including five of those six games played on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Houston (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 88-57 win against Texas A&M as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cougars have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total when favored. They have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against opponents that are winning 60-80% of their games. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 9 of 12 (75%) All-Sports run after DELIVERING their 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month last night with the Houston-Minnesota Under! Frank is on a 12 of 18 (67%) college basketball run — and now he furthers his 12 of 18 (67%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides mark and his 13 of 20 (65%) CBB Game of the Year run with his 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year for Thursday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (613) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (614) in the Sweet Sixteen round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (26-8) has won four of their last five games after their 76-55 victory against VCU as an 11.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 on Saturday. Houston (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games after their 88-57 victory against Texas A&M as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: We were on Texas A&M on Saturday — but their offensive limitations got exposed as they only made 34.6% of their shots in their ugly 31-point loss against the Cougars. Houston has a much stiffer challenge tonight against an Illinois scoring attack that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The deeper I dove into this game, the worse this matchup presented itself for head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team. The Cougars thrive when forcing turnovers and winning the free throw battle — but neither is likely to go happen in this game. Houston ranks 14th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions. But now they face an Illini team with multiple capable ball-handlers that rank ninth in the nation by turning the ball over in 13.1% of their possessions. The Cougars have a 19-0 record when they force at least 13 turnovers — but in their six losses, they have only forced an average of 7.8 turnovers per game. Illinois has not turned the ball over more than 14 times in a game (in a 30-point win against Southern University) — and in their two games when they turned the ball over 13 times, they still beat Texas Tech (and covered the point spread) while losing to Wisconsin in overtime (not sure if it took the extra five minutes for them to commit their 13th turnover). Houston is 16-0 if they win the free throw battle — despite ranking 351st of the 365 teams in Division I in offensive free throw rate and putting their opponents on the free throw line at the 276th worst rate. But here comes Illinois that has the best defensive free throw rate in the nation. If the Cougars cannot generate scoring opportunities in transition from turnovers or get to the free throw line, they then rely on second-chance scoring opportunities as they rank 26th in the nation by pulling down 35.9% of their missed shots. But the Illini limit their opponents to rebounding 26.8% of their missed shots, ranking 31st in the nation. Houston may get stuck trying to score almost exclusively from their first shot in their half-court offense — and that should expose their poor shot selection in those situations where too often they get lulled into settling for too many long jump shots. They are second-to-last in the nation in distance from the rim in their shots inside the arc. They do make 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc (after making only 25.8% of those shots on Saturday) — but the Illini rank 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to 31.5% shooting from 3-point range. On the road, the Cougars see their shooting inside the arc drop by 6.7% to a 49.0% clip, ranking 244th in the nation. It is the 319th-worst decline in 2-point shooting when playing away from home. They are also surrendering +4.2 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road, the 292nd worst decline relative to home split stats. Their defensive turnover percentage drops by -8.3% to 17.0% of their opponents' possessions when on the road. Sampson has three starters back from the group that narrowly lost to Florida in the national championship game last year. But this team is not quite as good so far this season, despite adding some superstar freshman talent. Their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency remains outstanding, but not quite as stingy as last season. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 19 tournament games, including five of those eight contests this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. Illinois played one of their best defensive games of the season by limiting the Rams to scoring at just a 0.83 Points-Per-Possession rate. Defense is considered the weak link of this team despite their ranking 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The laptops ding them because they are last in the nation in forcing turnovers — but head coach Brad Underwood appreciates the benefit from that tactical decision is their uber-low foul rate. So while their defense cannot be considered elite when compared to the teams remaining in the Big Dance, their offense certainly can. Led by breakout freshman sensation Keaton Wagler who will be a lottery pick in the June NBA draft, the Illini spread the floor with 3-point shooters — and, as opposed to the Cougars, they are playing the modern game by taking 50.4% of their shots from behind the arc, the 15th highest rate in the nation. Do not underestimate the impact of elite offenses in making deep runs. Nine of the last ten teams to lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency reached at least the Elite Eight. Granted, Illinois trails Purdue in that metric — but their 131.6 rating by Ken Pomeroy is the second-highest mark in the history of his database going all the way back to 1999. Before this season, last year’s Duke team with their 130.1 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency was the highest number Pomeroy had ever recorded in his database. The Fighting Illini are underrated still despite only one loss by more than one scoring possession (against Michigan) since December. Their four other losses since December 13th all went into overtime. On the road, they are scoring +4.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions with their free throw rate increasing by 3.5%, the 23rd best increase in the nation. Illinois should generate their share of second-chance scoring opportunities as well — they pull down 39.2% of their missed shots, ranking third in the nation. Houston allows their opponents to pull down 30.1% of their missed shots, ranking 168th in the nation. The Illini out-rebound their opponents by +10.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Fighting Illini made 46.5% of their shots — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games on the road against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. While Houston is outscoring their opponents +15.2 Points-Per-Game, Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams that are winning 80% or more of their games. The Illini have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. 

FINAL TAKE: This game is being played 2.5 miles away from the University of Houston campus — but it is the first time that the Toyota Center is a site in the NCAA Tournament, so the Cougars lack experience playing here. I’ll concede that Sampson’s team retains some advantage with more fans likely cheering them on — but I consider this kind of edge overrated, as the books and the market are taking into account more than I am. Most of my handicapping for the Big Dance is looking at split stats away from home — so I am accounting for uncomfortable environments. I do not believe a few more cheers (but not as loud as a true home crowd in a very familiar environment) is going to help the Cougars’ players. Put another way, I find the biggest impact home crowds have in sports is disrupting the opposition rather than helping their team’s performance. Interestingly, while Sampson’s teams have a 22-5 straight-up record in Rounds of 64 and 32 in the Big Dance, they are only 7-5 straight-up from the Sweet 16 and beyond — and his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the Sweet 16. On the other hand, head coach Brad Underwood’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games in either the Round of 64 or the Sweet 16 when he has more than two days to scout and prepare his team. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (613) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (614). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in the second week of April. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the sixth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March two years ago to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring changes how this course plays. The track consists of 7475 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. It is not only the third-longest course on the PGA Tour, but the track is the longest of any Par 70 on the tour. The professionals will have to contend with 21 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. Bombers off-the-tee are not punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens average 7000 square feet, with augmented tiers consisting of Poa Trivialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The 133 professionals teeing off will compete to make the cut for the weekend, which will consist of the top 65 plus ties after Round Two. While weather is often a factor since the tournament moved to the spring here, sunshine is expected all week — so the conditions will be drier (and faster) than in previous years.  

LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3700 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Scott (7131) versus Tony Finau (7132) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:42 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Adam Scott, who is listed at +3700 odds to win this event. Scott comes off a tie for 56th place at THE PLAYERS Championship to make it six made cuts in his PGA Tour events in 2026. He looks primed to make a run in the four major championships this year after his fourth-place finish at The Genesis Invitational and his tie for 11th place at Bay Hill. The 14-time winner on the PGA Tour tends to perform better at tougher layouts against stronger fields. He ranks 16th on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and ninth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Scott’s ball-speed with his driver is up by more than four miles per hour this year at 184.78 MPH, which is above the supposed big-hitters like Chris Gotterup and Wyndham Clark. He has made the cut in both his previous professional appearances here. Even better, the veteran ranks fifth on the tour this year in Round One Scoring. 

Scott is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head scoring. Finau comes off a tie for 18th place at the Valspar Championship, which was his third top 20 finish in his last six tournaments. He ranks 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, and his putting has been solid — but he is not in great form with his ball-striking. Finau ranks 145th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and just 84th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He won this event in 2023 and finished in second place the next year — but he fell back to 32nd place last year and has missed the cut here once in his five professional trips. Finau ranks only 75th in Round One Scoring this season. Take Scott (7131) versus Finau (7132) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.