Frank Sawyer

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (958) versus the Miami Marlins (957) listing both starting pitchers Casey Mize and Eury Perez. THE SITUATION: San Diego (85-69) has won three games in a row, along with 11 of their last 12 contests, after their 8-2 victory at home against the Marlins last night. Miami (76-78) had won two games in a row before that loss. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego is playing their best baseball of the season — and it is because their bats have come alive. They have scored at least eight runs in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. In their last nine games, they are scoring 7.3 Runs-Per-Game. The Padres have also held their last three opponents to no more than three runs — and they have won 11 of their last 12 games at home after not allowing more than three runs in three straight games. They have also won 29 of their last 43 games at home following a win in their last game. San Diego has been red hot at home, where they have won 24 of their last 32 games, including 6 of their last 7 contests at Petco Park. Casey Mize is their starting pitcher tonight. The right-hander has a 6-9 record along with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 24 starts. Since being acquired at the trade deadline from Detroit, Mize has been inconsistent — but the deeper sabermetrics remain encouraging. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 4.31. He has also been more effective at home, where he owns a 3.15 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts this season as opposed to his 4.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts on the road. He has a great opportunity to pitch well against this slumping Marlins lineup. Miami ranks sixth and ninth this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers  — but they plummet to 17th in both those categories since August 1st. The Marlins have lost 5 of their last 8 games after losing their last game — and they have lost 25 of their last 40 games on the road after losing their last contest. They have also 22 of their last 35 games on the road, including 9 of their last 14 games. They have lost 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 7-7.5 range. Furthermore, Miami has lost 11 of their last 13 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They counter with Eury Perez tonight. The right-hander has a 7-11 record along with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 27 starts. Perez was cruising through much of the summer — but he may be tiring late in the season. In his last four starts, he has been saddled with a 10.26 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP. Despite posting a 1.80 ERA in June and a 1.69 ERA in July, the deeper sabermetrics suggest he was overachieving. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.06 and 4.17. His xERA sits at 4.11. He has also been more effective at home, where he has a 3.45 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 13 starts — but in his 14 starts on the road, he has a 4.54 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He now faces this hot-hitting Padres team that ranks second in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers. 

FINAL TAKE: San Diego has won the last four meetings between these two teams — and the Marlins have lost 13 of their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge. 25* MLB National League Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (958) versus the Miami Marlins (957) listing both starting pitchers Casey Mize and Eury Perez. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Nottingham Forest (200182) minus the goal-line versus Coventry City (200181). THE SITUATION: Nottingham Forest (W1-D2-L1) won their first match in the English Premier League under new head coach Oliver Glasner with a 2-1 win at Aston Villa last Saturday. Coventry City (W0-D0-L4) have lost their first four matches in the EPL this season after their 5-0 loss at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE NOTTINGHAM FOREST WITH THE MONEY-LINE: The Tricky Trees are beginning to establish a rhythm under new manager Oliver Glasner. Against Aston Villa last week, they registered 2.28 expected Goals (xG) along with six Big Chances (shots with an xG of at least 35%) in the win — an accomplishment particularly impressive against a well-coached squad by Unai Emery. They also limited the Villans to just 0.82 xG. The 4.82 expected Goals Allowed (xGA)  that Nottingham Forest has allowed is the third-lowest mark in the EPL. If there was a silver lining to already getting eliminated in the second round of the Carabou Cup earlier this month, it is that the midweek responsibilities are mostly gone — so Glasner has a full week to prepare his rested squad for this match. Glasner is a highly respected manager who helped Crystal Palace overachieve for years before the club, and he mutually parted ways at the end of last season. The Tricky Trees have earned draws with two “big six” sides this season already against Liverpool and Tottenham. Now they have a great opportunity for another victory against a struggling Coventry City side. The Sky Blues are the only team in the EPL yet to score a goal and register a point. They have conceded 10 goals already. Manager Frank Lampard’s side is at a rest disadvantage as well after they lost by a 3-1 score at home against Aston Villa in the Carabou Cup on Wednesday. They did score their first goal against an EPL opponent this season — but their defense remains an issue. The Villans posted 3.10 xG against them following Brighton’s five goals and 2.81 xG over the weekend. To compound matters, defenseman Aurele Amanda left in the 12th minute of that match with a calf injury that will keep him out for this match. Taiwo Anoniyi is out as well after being issued a red card in the match against Brighton, which triggered a three-game suspension. As it is, Coventry City is still without Haji Wright, who is out with a thigh injury. He led the team with 17 goals last season. 

FINAL TAKE: Glasner would love to see a win at home for his side since Nottingham Forest has not won in front of their home fans at City Ground since April 19th in a 4-1 triumph against Burnley. The Trees have won four of their last five meetings with the Sky Blues — and they have won 32 of their 48 matches at home against them in their history. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Nottingham Forest (200182) minus the goal-line versus Coventry City (200181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Delaware Blue Hens (112) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (111). THE SITUATION: Delaware (1-1) lost their first game of the season in a 35-26 loss at Vanderbilt as a 21.5-point underdog last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 45-7 victory against Fordham as a 36.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE HENS MINUS THE POINTS: Delaware accounted for themselves very well on the road against an SEC team in the fifth season under head coach Ryan Carty. The Blue Hens only got outgained by one yard (339-338) and won the first down battle by an 18-17 margin. They are in just their second season playing at the FBS level. In their inaugural season in Conference USA last season, Delaware finished 4-4 in the conference and capped off a 7-6 campaign with a 20-13 victory against UL-Lafayette in the 68 Ventures Bowl. Carty has one of the most experienced teams in the nation this season, with 12 starters back from that group. Senior quarterback Nick Minicucci leads the offense after leading Conference USA last season by averaging 315 passing Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. Carty also added several key transfers on both sides of the ball to bolster the returning veteran core of his team. Delaware has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in September under Carty. They kicked off their season with an easy 42-7 victory against Merrimack two weeks ago. Coastal Carolina opened their season with a 31-24 loss at West Virginia two weeks ago. They rebounded last week against the Rams, an FCS  program, but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. Additionally, while the Chanticleers enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Mountaineers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. On paper, the Chanticleers finished 6-7 for a second straight season after a 23-14 loss against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. But after previous head coach Jamey Chadwell led Coastal Carolina to a 42-6 combined record, things are moving in the wrong direction as the team has a 20-19 record in the three seasons under Tim Beck — and the deeper one digs, the worse it looks. After a 1-2 start to the season with their lone victory being against Charleston Southern, the Chanticleers did win five of their next six games. But the combined record of the five FBS teams they defeated over that span was just 14-31 after winning their sixth game of the season — and they got outgained by -64 net yards in those five games. They benefited from a +9 net turnover margin and some good fortunes on fourth down as they converted 7 of their 18 fourth down attempts. Coastal Carolina posted a 5-3 record against fellow Sun Belt Conference opponents — but they got outgained by -127 net Yards-Per-Game in those eight contests! They only had one victory against a team ranked higher than #111th in the nation using the SP+ metrics of ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Chanticleers scored 38.3 Points-Per-Game against teams that ranked in the bottom 20 in the FBS in SP+ defense — but they only averaged 8.3 PPG against their remaining opponents. Against teams ranked in the top 50 in the SP+ rankings, their average losing margin was by -42.4 PPG. Given all this, it’s not surprising that the administration fired Beck. Frankly, it may not have been his fault that this football program has become a leading example of being a casualty in the new era of the transfer portal. Coastal Carolina is way behind in developing an NIL program. After inheriting 30 seniors or super seniors in Beck’s first season when the Chanticleers finished 8-5, the team had 66 new players in his second season. That offseason, more than 40 players left in the transfer portal, resulting in 67 new players on last year’s roster. It makes it difficult to establish and maintain a winning culture. The keys to the program were given to Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard, who did a great job leading the Bears to a 7-6 record last season in their first year at the FBS level. By all accounts, Beard is a fine head coach — and he brought over much of his coaching staff at Missouri State, including the offensive and defensive coordinators. But it is yet another massive reset with the roster after another 40 players left in the transfer portal. Beard brought in 59 new players for his roster, including 41 players in the portal, 15 true freshmen, and five junior college transfers. The hope is that with 12 players coming with him from the Bears last season, the Chanticleers can make it Missouri State East with the benefit of some key holdovers from Beck’s team last year along with some good players from the transfer portal. But Beard’s teams in his head coaching career have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 17 or more points. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Hens have a 44-12 straight record at home in the last ten seasons. Delaware has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when playing with six days or less of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Delaware Blue Hens (112) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.