At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (225628) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (225627) in the finals of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Spain (W6-D1-L0) advanced to the championship match of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against France in that semifinal showdown on Tuesday. Argentina (W7-D0-L0) joined them the next day with a 2-1 victory against England on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: La Roja’s showdown with France was a clash in styles that had been brewing since their clash in the semifinals of the 2024 Euro Championship. After Spain won that match by a 2-1 score, French manager Didier Deschamps changed his tactics by moving from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1 with four attacking forwards up front to combat La Roja’s dominant tiki-taka possession tactics. It almost worked for Deschamps when he unveiled this change of strategy in the semifinals of the UEFA Nations League in a 5-4 loss. Despite over 13 months to hone this approach, Spain simply dominated the talent (and favored) French side. La Roja scored goals in both halves en route to 1.63 expected Goals (xG) — and they limited Les Bleus to just 0.31 xG. Spain generated three Big Chances (a shot with an expected Goal probability of at least 35%) while preventing the explosive France scoring attack to even one Big Chance. I passed on the side in that match while backing the Over — who knows how much I would have invested (and lost) if I had known La Roja would score twice in regulation. Needless to say, I was overwhelmed by the defensive play of manager Luis de la Fuentes’ group. France was supposed to present the first time that their ambitious high line would be tested by clinical finishing forwards — yet Spain passed that test with flying colors. They have already broken a World Cup record with six clean sheets in this World Cup. They have only conceded once when Belgium scored on a header against them in the quarterfinals. Their seven opponents have generated a mere 2.14 xG against them and just five Big Chances. Taking a step back, their numbers are overwhelming. With a victory this afternoon, they would surpass the 2022 Italy side in the European Championship with a 38-match unbeaten streak. Since the 2018 World Cup in Russia, they have only lost once in 28 matches in major tournaments — and they are unbeaten in those last 15 matches with 10 clean sheets. When de la Fuente was promoted from being their Under-21 manager, few predicted his run would be so dominant — and he has overseen 13 victories in Spain’s last 14 matches in major tournaments. Their expected net goal differential of +11.20 is the highest in this World Cup and compares favorably to Argentina’s +10.03 net xG differential. In some ways, La Roja has not demonstrated their ceiling of potential since 19-year-old Lamine Yamal has been recovering from the hamstring injury he suffered in April — he has been very good but not in top form. But the brilliance of this Spain team rests in the midfield, exemplified by Manchester City’s Rodri, who has been outstanding in this tournament. The former Ballon d’Or winner has already broken a World Cup record with 655 completed passes — fueled by his 90% successful pass conversion rate. He is the straw that stirs the drink for this side. It is his technical wizardry that the French national team consistently fails to overcome. He is teaming with Paris Saint-Germain’s Fabian Ruiz in the middle of the pitch — the fact that Barcelona star midfielder Pedri is coming off the bench illustrates the abundance of riches that de la Fuente enjoys. Spain is able to control possession because of Rodri and this midfield — and they are an outstanding counter-pressing squad when they are without the ball. This approach controls tempo and frustrates their opponent (as France clearly was on Tuesday), fatigues their opponents by making them chase after them, and keeps them from scoring since it is extremely hard to score without the ball. La Roja has the better resume heading into this match with impressive victories against Portugal, Belgium, and then the French. And I do not issue any demerits from their opening match draw with Cape Verde since that island nation played level with Argentina in regulation time — besides, sometimes not losing is more important than winning in the group stage. Argentina’s comeback victory against England was impressive against a very good opponent (and I was incorrectly on the Three Lions) — but their route to that match with matches against Switzerland and Egypt in their previous two matches was not nearly as rigorous as what Spain encountered. I don’t blame England’s manager Thomas Tuchel for shifting to a 5-4-1 in that match after taking the 1-0 lead, since all the ankle biters would have been just as loud criticizing him if he kept his squad in their attacking 4-2-3-1 formation, which leaves them vulnerable to a more aggressive Argentinian side playing out of desperation. Credit to Lionel Messi and La Albiceleste for making two great scoring plays. However, it will be much harder to mount a comeback like that against Spain since simply getting control of the ball against them is so difficult. Messi’s two assists were brilliant — but I am worried about that, at 39-years-old, he is tiring at this point of the tournament. Perhaps a valid criticism of Tuchel in going to the 5-4-1 formation made it easier on Messi since it helped Argentina set up shop on England’s side of the football. Messi will have few opportunities to rest against La Roja. La Albiceleste have the look of a defending champion that is just hanging on. They have scored 9 of their last 10 goals in the Knockout Stage have taken place at the 79th minute or later. They drew even with England at the 85th minute and scored the winner in the second minute of stoppage time. In the quarterfinals against Switzerland, despite having the 11 versus 10 advantage at the 72nd minute mark after Breel Embolo’s red card, it took them 40 minutes to finally score the go-ahead goal against an undermanned Swiss side. That controversial red card was the second time in this tournament that La Albiceleste was the beneficiary of a questionable referee decision. They received several questionable VAR decisions in their comeback 3-2 victory against Egypt. Why exactly were they trailing 2-0 against the Pharaohs in the 79th minute in the Round of 16? Of course, they needed extra time to escape the potential biggest upset in World Cup history in the Round of 32 against Cape Verde. While La Albiceleste have scored 19 goals, their xG drops to 14.10. they have allowed five straight opponents score against them in this tournament as well. Frankly, manager Lionel Scaloni is still looking for answers from his roster even this late in the tournament. Right back Nahuel Manuel got exposed against England — and midfielder Guiliano Simeone struggled as well in that match. Scaloni may bench both those players for the finals. While Argentina has only given up seven goals — they have all come from crosses from wide areas. That is an area from which Spain thrives, with Lamine Yamal and, eventually, Nico Williams, who is likely coming off the bench rather than starting as he continues to recover from injury in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Spain enjoys several situational edges in this match. By playing on Tuesday, they have one extra day of rest. They have also not had to play any additional 30-minute extra periods in the Knockout Stage, having won all four of those matches in the 90-minute regulation time. The average age of La Roja’s starting XI is 26.6. On the other hand, Argentina’s average age of their expected starting XI is 29.9. La Albiceleste has played an extra 60 minutes in the Knockout Stage after Cape Verde and Switzerland took them to extra time after their matches were still level after 90 minutes. 25* World Cup Match of the Year with Spain (225628) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (225627). Best of luck for us — Frank.
