Frank Sawyer

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (301) and the Buffalo Bills (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 33-27 upset loss at home against New England as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (2-0) won their second game in a row to start the season, after their 30-10 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite the final score, the Dolphins’ defense played better last week. They held the Patriots to just 333 total yards (and outgained them by +25 net yards) — but allowing a 90-yard kickoff return for a touchdown did not help their cause. But the Miami offense is averaging only 284.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 17.5 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss to a fellow AFC East rival — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after losing their last game. Furthermore, they have played 5 straight games on the Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. This offense was not nearly as explosive last year, as it had been in the past under McDaniel. After leading the NFL by generating 401.3 total Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24, Miami dropped to 18th in the league by averaging 325.4 total YPG last year. There are several factors involved. The offensive line fell from fourth in Adjusted Line Yards to last in that metric a year ago. At 31 years old, wide receiver Tyreek Hill may have lost a step. The league may be figuring out McDaniel’s schemes. While pre-snap motion was a relatively new phenomenon a few years ago, now it is commonplace. Furthermore, there are simply limitations in what the offense can accomplish when such a priority is placed on keeping Tagovailoa upright and not risking another concussion. His 2.42 seconds per throw average last year was the fastest in the NFL. But the zeal to get the ball out quickly removes the deep ball threat. The Dolphins struggled to threaten two-high safety looks that can suffocate their speedy playmakers. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target went from 7.6 yards per attempt two years ago (21st of qualifying QBs) to 5.7 yards per attempt, which was last for the 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His check-down rate on 16.6% of his throws was the fourth highest in the NFL. He only threw into tight windows in 20.1% of his throws, ranking in the lower end. Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. The run game was not effective either — after ranking sixth in the NFL two years ago by generating 135.8 rushing YPG, they fell to 21st last year by only averaging 105.6 rushing YPG. The decreased threat of the rushing attack diminished the potency of McDaniel dialing up play-action passes. All the window dressing of pre-snap motion and play-action passing fails to unlock the speed of the play-makers on the offense if defenses are comfortable in simply stopping what Tagovailoa does with the football in under three seconds. General manager Chris Grier’s hope is that he made the team tougher in the offseason through the draft and in free agency — although seeing long-time left tackle Terron Armstead retire in the offseason does not help. Three new starters will be on the offensive line. Miami has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog.  Buffalo dismantled the Jets last week by outgaining them by 249 net yards. The Bills rushed for 224 yards from 43 carries, which helped them control the time of possession by being on offense for 38:21 minutes — and they held the Jets to just 154 total yards. Head coach Sean McDermott has learned not to ask too much of quarterback Josh Allen in games like this — running back James Cook ran the ball 21 times for 132 yards last week, and I expect a similar game plan tonight. Allen only attempted 25 passes and ran the ball just six times. Running the ball will protect their defense, which is what has been holding them back from reaching the Super Bowl. General manager Brandon Beane knows the problem and targeted the defense with his first five draft picks and six of his top seven selections in the NFL draft last April, focusing on cornerbacks, defensive tackles, and edge rushers. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (301) and the Buffalo Bills (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (302) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (301). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (2-0) won their second game in a row to start the season, after their 30-10 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 33-27 upset loss at home against New England as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo dismantled the Jets last week by outgaining them by 249 net yards. The Bills rushed for 224 yards from 43 carries — and they have covered all 5 of their games at home after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game since Sean McDermott became their head coach. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after beating a fellow AFC East rival on the road in their last game. Many observers thought the Bills were destined to take a step back last season after saying goodbye to wide receiver Stefon Diggs. I disagreed because I like the increased reliance on the run game once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator for Ken Dorsey late last season. In my deep dive last year, I wrote: “Relying less on quarterback Josh Allen’s arm may reduce his league-leading 47 interceptions in the last three seasons.” Sure enough, Allen only threw six interceptions all season — and his eight turnovers (accounting for two lost fumbles) were the only giveaways the offense experienced all season. That is spectacular. It is also unsustainable. Not making those mistakes — and Allen taking only 14 sacks all season — helped the offense rank second in the NFL by scoring 30.9 Points-Per-Game. They reached the 30-point plateau 13 times while scoring at least 27 points 15 times and getting to 40 or more points three times. Even with some regression in the turnover department,  the offense should remain explosive. The outstanding offensive line remains intact. A common criticism is that Buffalo lacks the prototype WR1 target, but the balance (and lack of drama) from the array of targets may be just what Allen needs to thrive. And there are reasons for optimism. Both Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kinked played through injury. Second-year wideout Keon Coleman should continue to grow. Miami is an absolute mess with head coach Mike McDaniel the leading candidate to become the first coach fired this season — and, frankly, it might happen after this game. I have seen this moment coming. After making the playoffs in the first two seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins fell to 8-9 last year — and the vibes were bad. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey was granted his trade request at the end of June when he was dealt to Pittsburgh. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a drama queen and is coming off a year where did not reach 1000 receiving yards. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed another six games because of injuries. McDaniel admitted to a problem of player tardiness to team meetings. The inmates appear to be running the asylum. McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier on are on the hot seat — but it is going to be difficult to put the genie back in the proverbial bottle, even with a relatively light schedule. McDaniel is talking about being more of a disciplinarian — but it is very tough for the “cool teacher” who lets the students get away with whatever they want to suddenly command the respect to not talk back in class. It has been speculated that one of the reasons Ramsey wanted out of the building was his lack of respect for McDaniel. The bigger problem is that his offense was not nearly as explosive last year. After leading the NFL by generating 401.3 total Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24, Miami dropped to 18th in the league by averaging 325.4 total YPG last year. There are several factors involved. The offensive line fell from fourth in Adjusted Line Yards to last in that metric a year ago. At 31 years old, Hill may have lost a step. But the league may be figuring out McDaniel’s schemes. While pre-snap motion was a relatively new phenomenon a few years ago, now it is commonplace. Furthermore, there are simply limitations in what the offense can accomplish when such a priority is placed on keeping Tagovailoa upright and not risking another concussion. His 2.42 seconds per throw average last year was the fastest in the NFL. But the zeal to get the ball out quickly removes the deep ball threat. The Dolphins struggled to threaten two-high safety looks that can suffocate their speedy playmakers. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target went from 7.6 yards per attempt two years ago (21st of qualifying QBs) to 5.7 yards per attempt, which was last for the 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His check-down rate on 16.6% of his throws was the fourth highest in the NFL. He only threw into tight windows in 20.1% of his throws, ranking in the lower end. Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. The run game was not effective either — after ranking sixth in the NFL two years ago by generating 135.8 rushing YPG, they fell to 21st last year by only averaging 105.6 rushing YPG. The decreased threat of the rushing attack diminished the potency of McDaniel dialing up play-action passes. All the window dressing of pre-snap motion and play-action passing fails to unlock the speed of the play-makers on the offense if defenses are comfortable in simply stopping what Tagovailoa does with the football in under three seconds. Grier’s hope is that he made the team tougher in the offseason through the draft and in free agency — although seeing long-time left tackle Terron Armstead retire in the offseason does not help. It is hard to change the identity of a football team from finesse to physical in one offseason without also changing the coaching staff. Three new starters will be on the offensive line. The defense will miss the defensive end Calais Campbell, who signed with Arizona in the offseason — even at 38 years old, he remains effective in the pass rush (ask the Cardinals after their first two games with him). The roster is bereft of talent at cornerback after the trade of Ramsey. In my deep dive on this team last year, I observed that much of the gaudy stats for this team came against sub-.500 teams. The Dolphins have been flat-track bullies under McDaniel, who tend to melt against tougher competition. They have lost six of their seven games against Buffalo in his tenure. Now, the inner turmoil is growing, and the rest of the league is catching up. It is telling that the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 11 games against teams with a winning record with Tagovailoa healthy and under center. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC opponents. And is often the case with teams reeling in the wrong directions, the injuries are mounting up. Starting right tackle Austin Jackson starting linebacker Chop Robinson are on the injured list. Cornerbacks Cam Smith and Storm Duck are out, making the Ramsey trade even more perilous. Starting safety Ifeatu Melifonwu is out with a calf. Defensive tackle Benito Jones is out with an oblique. Even at close to 100%, this was going to be tough for the Dolphins. 

FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if this is the game when the Dolphins players officially quit on McDaniel. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in the first month of the season with him as their head coach. The Bills have covered the point spread in 22 of their 32 games in the first month of the season under McDermott — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games played on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (302) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.