ASA

#842 ASA PLAY ON Troy -6.5 over Georgia Southern, Monday at 7 PM ET - We were on Troy yesterday vs Southern Miss and picked up a win. Now we’re getting them at a similar number, vs a similarly rated team, but in an even better situation. As we mentioned yesterday, the Sun Belt has a unique tournament format which heavily favors the higher seeds. This is the Sun Belt final and while Troy is playing their 2nd game after winning the regular season and getting a bye into the semi-finals, Georgia Southern is playing their 6th game in 6 days. The Panthers have had a great run in this tourney after finishing 10th in the regular season. They’ve won 5 games in 5 days, the last 4 coming as underdogs. 3 of the 5 games went to the wire with Georgia Southern winning by 4 points or less. The Panther came into the tourney ranking outside the top 300 in FG% but have made at least 52% of their shots in 3 of their 5 games during this run. They’ve been shooting way above their pay grade so to speak. Yesterday in their 4 point win over Marshall they finally came back to earth making just 40% of their shots (tired legs starting to kick in?). The difference was the Panthers made 9 more FT’s and Marshall played without one of their top players, Noah Otshudi (15 PPG). He was out with an illness that has been running through some of the team giving Georgia Southern a huge edge yesterday. That won’t happen today facing the best team in the Sun Belt. Troy handled their business yesterday, as we expected, beating Southern Miss by 8. The game wasn’t that close as the Trojans led by 19 in the 2nd half and led for over 90% of the game. That was USM 4th game in 4 days not they get GS playing their 6th game in 6 days. In their lone meeting this year, Troy was favored by 4.5 @ Georgia Southern and won by 5. Now laying 6.5 on a neutral isn’t out of line and we’re getting a much better situational spot for the Trojans. In conference play Troy was better pretty much across the board in most of the key stats and we’ll lay it with them in the Sun Belt Final.

ASA NBA play on LA Clippers +2.5 vs. NY Knicks, 10 pm ET - We like the Clippers in this one for several reasons including the fact the Knicks are coming off a game yesterday versus the Lakers while the Clippers are rested. New York lost a sloppy game yesterday with 18 turnovers while shooting just 2% from deep. Brunson played 42 minutes, Anthony Towns logged 34 minutes so both should be fatigued here. This is also the Knicks 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven days. The Clippers have won 4 of their last five games and are one game under .500 and sit just 1 game behind the Warriors for 8th in the Western Conference. LA is near healthy now with Darius Garland playing over 26 minutes on Saturday in the Clippers win over Memphis. LA has gotten much deeper with their trade line additions of Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and now Garland who had missed time with an injury. These same two teams met in New York in January with the Knicks favored by -5-points on their home court and are now laying points on the road? That doesn’t add up and we have the Clippers favored by 1.5 points in this game. In three recent home games against similar teams to the Knicks (Magic, Wolves and Nuggets) the Clippers were 1 & 2 with three close games and all three were without Garland in the lineup. The Knicks defense has slipped in recent games to 20th in defensive efficiency while the Clippers rank 20th in that same 5-game stretch. If we use that same 5-game span to compare the offenses we find the Clippers have an oEFF of 1.149-points per possession compared to the Knicks 1.142PPP. It all adds up to a big Clippers win at home as they get revenge for the road loss back in January.

#57/58 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-135) - Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - The Blackhawks are in a B2B spot and this is creating a goalie issue for them tonight.   Soderblom got the start yesterday so that means he is unlikely to play tonight as goalies rarely ever go B2B these days plus he was not great last night anyway.  Spencer Knight did not even travel with the team for yesterday's game at Dallas as he is dealing with an illness right now.  Knight has allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of his last 9 appearances.  So if Soderblom or Knight are in between the pipes tonight neither is 100%.  As for option #3 it is Drew Commesso and he has only 4 games of NHL experience.  As for the Mammoth, they might have Vejmelka between the pipes here but he has allowed at least 4 goals in 3 of his last 5 games and also in 2 of his last 3 on the road.  As for their other option, Vitek Vanecek is off a rare shutout win but that was preceded by him allowing at least 3 goals in 9 of his last 11 starts.  Based on all of the above, you can see why we are confident that both clubs get to at least the 3-goal mark in this one.  Utah has been shutout just twice in the last 17 games and they scored an average of 4 goals in the other 15 games!  Chicago's last 4 home games have all reached at least the 6-goal mark and they are scoring better of late.  The Blackhawks have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 games and that includes a surprising shutout win at Utah a week ago.  The Mammoth are out for revenge here and should score well but we also expect the Blackhawks to again score 3+ goals in this one.  This game has the highest probability of finishing in a range of 7 to 8 goals per our computer math model.  Over for a top game here! 

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201937/201938 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (+120) – Espanyol vs Oviedo, Monday at 4 PM ET - This is a great spot for goals. Espanyol is on a run in which 6 straight matches have totaled 3+ goals and these matches averaged 4.5 goals! Oviedo's last 7 matches featured 5 reaching at least the 3-goal mark and those 5 averaged 4 goals. The winning team has scored 2 goals in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs and we also don't foresee either club being shut out here. Oviedo has conceded at least 1 goal in 8 of its last 9 matches. Espanyol has conceded 2.3 goals in its last 10 matches and did not produce a single clean sheet during this run. Look for that pattern to continue here. We are looking for 3 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact we plus money is on offer in this one with the Over 2.5 goals! We are strong on the 'over' here.