ASA

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever +1.5 at Atlanta Dream, 5pm ET - This is a really big game for both teams as they currently sit 4th (Indiana) and 5th (Atlanta) in the playoff standings. Only 2 games separate the 3rd and 6th place team in a tightly contested playoff situation in the WNBA. Both teams are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games and playing at a high level. The Fever though have a +12.1 Net rating in that stretch of games whereas the Dream are +7.4. And when you factor in scheduling the Fever have faced a much tougher slate of games compared to the Dream who have just 1 win of those nine games against a team with a winning record. The big edge the Fever have in this game and the difference will be 3-point shooting. Indiana is the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the league at 39.3% and the Dream are the worst team in the W defending the 3PT line allowing 36.8%. Atlanta will be without Brionna Jones who recently came back from injury and Jordin Canada is questionable. Indiana is a serious contender to win a title this year, the Dream are fools gold. The Fever also are seeking revenge for losing the last 2 meetings with Atlanta and this one sets up very well for payback to be served. We like the Fever in this one.

#963/964 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs (-120) – Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 12:15 PM ET - Taking advantage of the line value here.  The posted total of 7.5 runs here has more to do with the long-term reputation of Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta than the other key factors like current form and match-up edges.  First off, the Orioles' Rogers gave up 7 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings when he faced the Rays in Tampa in mid-May.  As for the Rays' Peralta, he is in shaky current form.  The former long-time Brewer is off of a quality start against the Athletics but still has allowed 19 earned runs on 29 hits (including 5 homers) over his last 4 starts spanning 19 innings.  Yes, Peralta has a 9.00 ERA over his last 4 starts.  This is now his 3rd team in 2 seasons as Peralta has gone from Milwaukee to the Mets to now Tampa Bay.  There is a reason for that!  As for Rogers current form, he has allowed 9 runs (6 earned) in 10 innings over his last two road starts!  The O's southpaw is facing a Rays team that, prior to yesterday's 4-3 loss, had scored an average of 7 runs over their preceding 10 games!  TB's Peralta is facing an Orioles side that has scored 20 runs in its last 3 games.  In summary, we have the perfect combo of a low total plus two starting pitchers each likely to struggle.  Our computer math model projects 9 to 11 runs here. We are strong on the Over in this one!

Spanish La Liga: Rotation #201837/201838 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Villarreal at Racing Santander, Sunday at 11:00 AM ET - Great setup for goals here.  Racing Santander is a newly promoted side and is thrilled to be at home here for their season opener back in Liga 1 again.  In their final four matches in Liga 1 action last season they scored an average of 2.8 goals per match.  Villarreal is the more established club and is favored on the road with good reason.  If you look at their last 10 matches which includes a few friendlies and dates back to their solid finish in the Liga 1 standings last season, Villarreal has scored an average of 2 goals in their last 10 matches. Our computer math model shows 2-1 as the most likely result here and a 2-2 draw also is not far behind on the prediction model. This is another reason we are looking for 3 or more here and adding to the value in this one is the fact the juice is rather reasonable on the Over 2.5 goals! We will take the 'over' here in this early match Sunday.