Jack's Free Pick Saturday: St. Louis Cardinals +126

Quinn Matthews will make his major league debut for the Cardinals on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays.  This is a signal that the Cardinals are going 'all in' now that they have have fallen 3 games back in the wild card after their worst stretch of the season.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on St. Louis here.

But few starters have had as much anticipation to make their MLB debut for St. Louis as Matthews.  He is their No. 7 prospect and has lived up to the hype in the minors.  Matthews has posted a 3.13 ERA with 111 K's in 92 innings across 19 starts for Triple-A Memphis.  That includes a 1.59 ERA over his final 10 starts while pitching at least 6 innings in each of his last four.

Matthews will face one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Blue Jays, who are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season.  And St. Louis should get its bats going against the overrated Kevin Gausman, who is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career.

Gausman is 4-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 22 starts this season.  He is winless in his last 11 starts.  Gausman has gone 0-7 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his last 10 starts, allowing 37 earned runs and 9 homers in 52 2/3 innings.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

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20* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee Brewers -120

The Milwaukee Brewers have the 2nd-best record in baseball at 68-41 this season.  They should be much bigger favorites over the Los Angeles Angels, who have the worst record in baseball at 42-68 this season.  That includes 1-7 in their last eight games overall coming into this one.

Robert Gasser has been a tough luck pitcher to have a 4.71 ERA in spite of a 1.17 WHIP in his 11 starts.  He is better than the numbers suggest.  Gasser has really flashed his potential in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs and 8 base runners in 11 innings.

Jose Soriano is getting too much respect here.  He is 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 10 home starts this season.  Soriano allowed 3 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings of a 9-2 loss to the Brewers in his lone career start against them last season.  Bet the Brewers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +128

The Baltimore Orioles have gone 12-5 in their last 17 games overall to get back into contention for a wild card spot.  The Philadelphia Phillies are 1-8 in their last nine games overall and there is a ton of turmoil in the locker room right now.  I'll gladly side with the Orioles as home underdogs to the Phillies tonight.

Cristopher Sanchez is really struggling allowing 16 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.65 ERA during this stretch.  Sanchez has been very hittable on the road, going 4-3 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in nine starts away from home while allowing 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 54 1/3 innings.  He is getting way too much respect as a road favorite here.

Shane Baz has been solid with a 3.98 ERA in 21 starts this season and a 3.95 ERA in 10 home starts.  Baz is going through his best stretch of the season with a 2.89 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in four of them without allowing a single homer.  Bet the Orioles Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Orioles OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Phillies and Orioles today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left.  The Orioles used 4 relievers and the Phillies used 3 relievers in Baltimore's 6-4 victory yesterday.  It should be another slug fest today with a couple taxed bullpens.

Cristopher Sanchez is really struggling allowing 16 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.65 ERA during this stretch.  Sanchez has been very hittable on the road, going 4-3 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in nine starts away from home while allowing 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 54 1/3 innings.

Shane Baz is 4-9 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 21 starts for the Orioles this season, including 3-3 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Baz allowed 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Phillies last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Tigers -134

The Detroit Tigers are coming off a 13-1 victory over the A's in Game 1 to pull within 6.5 games of the White Sox for 1st place in the AL Central.  They are far from dead, and they have played well over the past month to get back into the discussion.

The A's are 5-23 in their last 28 games overall and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in 15 of those 28 games.  The injuries just keep piling up for them as they are without several of their best hitters.

Framber Valdez isn't having his best season in Detroit, but he faces this weak A's lineup that he has owned in the past.  Valdez is 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 17 career starts against the A's.  That includes 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last five starts against them.

I'll gladly fade Jack Perkins, who is 2-6 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for the A's this season.  Perkins is 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home allowing 30 earned runs and 7 homers in 39 2/3 innings.  He is 10-3 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his eight games as a starter this season.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* AL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Astros OVER 8.5

The Texas Rangers have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team in the 2nd half of the season.  They have gone 31-11 OVER In their last 42 games overall and 17-4 OVER in their last 21 games.  The Rangers and their opponents have gone for at least 9 combined runs in 16 of their last 21 games overall.

The Astros are also swinging a hot bat right now during their 9-1 run int their last 10 games overall.  They have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 10 games.  They racked up 11 runs and 18 hits in Game 1 of this series against the Rangers.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 10 or more combined runs in all four.

Jacob DeGrom is 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Astros while allowing 11 earned runs and 8 homers in 17 innings.  He has been at his worst on the road this season, going 3-4 with a 4.33 ERA while allowing 11 homers in 10 starts away from home.

It has been a rough return for Ronel Blanco from IL.  He is 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA in two starts this season, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings.  Both offenses will crush today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Rays -158

The Tampa Bay Rays are the better team and have a big advantage on the mound today over the Chicago White Sox.  They should be bigger favorites as a result.  The White Sox are coming off two huge extra innings wins over the Yankees last series before taking Game 1 of this series, plus they have a taxed bullpen now.  They will be playing for a 15th consecutive day since the All-Star Break and are a tired team.  This is their letdown spot today.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 64-45 with the best record in the American League.  They have done their damage at home where they are 40-16 this season.  I fully expect them to bounce back in a big way over the White Sox thanks to their massive advantage on the mound.

Drew Rasmussen is 9-5 with a 3.07 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 20 starts for the Rays this season.  He is 0-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in two career home starts against the White Sox, allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 11 innings.

Jordan Hicks will serve as the opener for the White Sox to try and give Noah Shultz some help.  Schultz has been a disaster this season, going 3-7 with a 6.15 ERA in 13 starts, including 2-5 with a 7.03 ERA in seven road starts.  One of those starts came against the Rays when he allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, and 7 base runners in 4 1/3 innings.  Schultz will get the bulk of the innings today and I expect Tampa Bay to pound him.  Bet the Rays Saturday.

15* NL Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Padres OVER 8.5

The Padres are swinging the bats as well as they have all season.  They have scored 75 runs in their last 12 games for an average of 6.3 runs per game.  The Giants have scored at least 3 runs in 24 of their last 28 games overall.  Both offenses will have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers tonight.

Tyler Mahle is 3-9 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  But Mahle has been so bad away from pitcher-friendly San Francisco.  He is 0-6 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in eight road starts this season, allowing 34 earned runs, 8 homers and 67 base runners in 38 innings.

Walker Buehler is 6-5 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 21 starts for the Padres this season while allowing 57 earned runs in 100 innings.  Buehler has been real bad in his last five starts with a 9.82 ERA while allowing 24 earned runs and 7 homers in 22 innings.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings for a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts against San Francisco.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.