Week 9 NFL Picks

Doc’s Sports focuses on two games for this weekend that wagerers might want to tune in to.

The Miami Dolphins play at the New England Patriots on Sunday with the NFL spreads showing the Pats by 11.

Sure, New England has seemed like their old selves of late, cashing for backers and brutal to opponents against whom they have no reservations about running up the score until coach Bill Belichick is content.

The Pats have won its last two games by a compounded score of 94-7, cashing in each game. But keep in mind these blowouts came against the woeful Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are among the NFL’s bottom feeders.

So far this year, when New England has faced resistance they have sputtered. You can anticipate some resistance against the Miami Dolphins, whose awkward offensive sets and mostly strong defense has kept them close in most games.

Miami ranks fourth in rushing offense at 154 yards per game, while coming in sixth against the run (92.4 ypg). The Dolphins also are a surprising 11th in scoring offense at 25.1 points per game.

New England’s offensive stats were inflated by the two laughers, but the Patriots also have quietly managed to field the league’s third-best scoring defense (14 ppg). The unit will have its hands full versus a clock-control offense planned to shorten the game. Because of fewer possessions, New England will struggle to pull away, and the points provide a nice cushion here.

Trends: Miami is 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of double digits. Miami also is 5-0 ATS in their previous five against AFC East teams, and 13-3 ATS against home teams with winning records. New England is 4-1 ATS in their previous five as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records. Each team won on the road last year.

Pick: Dolphins +11.

The 1-6 Tennessee Titans head to San Franciso to take on the 49ers. San Fran is listed as a 4-point favorite. The Titans went from having the NFL’s best regular-season record last year to becoming one of this season’s worst. The 49ers went from a bright beginning to another year that looks directed toward mourning what could have been.

Neither result should come as much of a shocker. It’s not so much that the Titans transformed from a solid team into an horrible one, as much as it is that the odds have simply caught up with them. Coach Jeff Fisher’s reasonable, run-oriented style lends itself to the Titans consistently playing tight games. Last year, they happened to win most of them, and this year they are coming out on the short end. Fisher’s tight-gripped game plans are also suffering at the hands of opponents who run more advanced, higher-scoring sets.

San Fran isn’t one of them. Although the 49er defense is strong enough to keep the team in most contests, its lack of offense has been a component in its three consecutive losses. The 49ers are 27th in total offense with 275 yards per game.

San Francisco’s second-ranked run defense will be up against the Titans’ second-ranked running attack (162 ypg). The match-up favors Fisher’s style, and the four points should come in handy.

Trends: The Titans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 3-0-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.

Don’t miss any of the football picks offered by Doc or our other top football handicappers this weekend!

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