Free Football Picks: Virginia Tech at East Carolina

November 5, 2009

Rocky Atkinson continues to impress with his college football picks, check to see who he is taking this weekend if you want to pad your bankroll.

For the second straight week the Hokies will play in an ESPN Primetime Thursday Night game. Last week Virginia Tech was upset by unranked North Carolina as 14.5 point favorites. They will try to deflect losing their third straight game this Thursday on the road at East Carolina. The 22nd ranked Hokies are 5-3 this season (3-2 in the conference) and are just 3-5 at the pay window. Odds makers have assigned them as a lofty 13 point road chalk over East Carolina who has sputtered against quality opponents so far this season. East Carolina is also 5-3 SU and only 3-4 against the spread but has failed to be competitive against above average opponents like West Virginia and North Carolina. They will certainly be facing one of their hardest opponents on Thursday night against the Hokies.

In his first year as the clear cut starter at Virginia Tech, QB Tyrod Taylor has failed to come out as the star that everyone believed he could be. He is only averaging about 175 yards passing per game and has thrown just 9 TD passes in 8 games. Taylor hasn’t really been much of a menace on the ground either as he has only ran for 150 yards this season. For this Virginia Tech offense to really burst, Taylor has to come forward and play to his athletic potential. There is no wonder he will have to play well in order to win this matchup. Expect East Carolina to stuff the box with players and force Taylor to beat them with his arm.

However, despite Taylor’s failure to prevail at the quarterback position, the Hokies boast one of the leading running attacks in the country led by freshman tailback Ryan Williams. Va Tech is averaging 190 yards per game on the ground but will be facing a steady run defense in East Carolina. The Pirates are only allowing an average of 108 yards per game via the rush and 3.4 yards per attempt. A strong factor to who wins this game will be who wins the battle of the trenches. If East Carolina can hamper Virginia Tech’s rushing attack and put the ball in Taylor’s hands, they have a chance at pulling the upset.

On the other side of the football, East Carolina is nowhere near an offensive juggernaut in their own right. They rank 63rd in the land in total points and 80th in total yards. They are a team that is built around running the ball and playing strong defense. Their rushing attack is averaging right around 150 yards per game via the ground. This Pirate offense could present troubles for the Hokie defense who has consistently struggled stopping the run all season long. They are ranked 79th in the country in run defense, allowing more than 150 yards per game on the ground. Much like when Virginia Tech has the ball, the battle in the trenches will be important when East Carolina is on offense as well.

This should be a hard fought football game between two teams who pride themselves on defense and running the football. As noted earlier, whoever wins the battle upfront will probably be the victor of this game. The other important factor to this contest will be which signal caller steps up and plays better. Tyrod Taylor and Patrick Pinkney have not been great to say the least. Pinkney has thrown just 8 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. It could come down to whichever signal caller makes the least amount of errors. Both will have to handle the game, protect the football, and come through on third and long spots to win the ball game.

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Posted by Steve Janus · Filed Under Football Handicapping 

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