South Florida at Rutgers Football Predictions

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South Florida has been playing with freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels since losing senior Matt Grothe to a season-ending injury 5 weeks ago.  The Bulls have played 3 road games over that time, and their offense has struggled mightily.  They’ve scored 17, 34, and 14 points while gaining 368 yards or less of total offense.  Toss the 34 points scored against awful Syracuse because South Florida was on the receiving end of 7 turnovers in that game.

The Bulls have always played solid defense, and this year is no exception.  They allow only 18 points per game (versus teams that average 23 ppg), and 315 yards of offense (versus teams that average 355 ypg).  Overall, South Florida allows just 4.9 yards per play (versus teams that average 5.6 yppl).

Rutgers has played below average football on offense this season.  The Scarlet Knights are averaging 29 points per game, but that number looks a lot better than it actually is.  Their points per game average is inflated because in the two games they played against 1-AA opponents, Rutgers scored 87 points.  In their other 6 games against 1-A opponents, Rutgers has scored a total of 123 points.  So, in reality, this team is only averaging 20.5 points per game which is 8½ less than their seasonal average.  Overall on offense, Rutgers is averaging only 5.5 yards per play (versus teams that allow 5.9 yppl).

Defensively, Rutgers has played pretty well.  They are only allowing 18 points per game (versus teams that average 22 ppg).  Their run defense has been excellent holding teams to just 107 yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.  And their passing defense is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 56% of their passes.  Overall, their defense allows just 5.0 yards per play.

Both teams have better defenses than offenses.  And both teams are coached by defensive minded guys; Jim Leavitt at South Florida and Greg Schiano at Rutgers.  All of the above points to a low-scoring game tonight.

Play UNDER the total.

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