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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Rotation #201321: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2 -125 in Genoa vs Lazio @ 12:30 ET - These clubs last met in Coppa Italia action and it was a 1-0 final as was their most recent meeting in Serie A action back in August. However, the long-term history between these clubs is that the goals fly and this is another one, based on situation, that should be a goal-laden affair. Prior to the August meeting, the last 13 meetings totaled 57 goals! 1 totaled just 2 goals but the other 12 all totaled 3 or more goals and those dozen matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece! That said, we have some excellent line value with this total available at 2 goals. Genoa has trended toward higher scoring matches when on their home pitch this season and Lazio has trended toward higher scoring matches when on the road this season. Genoa home matches averaging 2.7 goals apiece. Lazio road matches averaging 2.8 goals apiece. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting each club to make the net ripple in this one. That means at least a 1-1 final but what about the likelihood of a draw here? Lazio has the FEWEST draws (4) of any club in Serie A this season and that includes only ONE draw in 16 matches on the road this season. Also, only 2 of the last 15 meetings between these clubs have finished in a draw. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final here. Lazio enters this match off a huge 4-1 win to get back on track and Genoa has scored in 5 straight matches at home and averaged scoring 1.6 goals per match during this 5-match stretch. OVER 2 -125 in Genoa
Rotation #206941: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt has scored 7 goals in their 4 matches in the play-out and Botosani has scored 6 goals in their 4 matches. Only 1 club (Voluntari) out of all 16 clubs in the play-off and play-out for Romania Liga 1 has scored more than these two clubs. That said, we have some nice value on the over here with this total available at 2 goals. Note that both clubs have momentum coming off big wins last week and Hermannstadt has scored 9 goals in its last 4 matches on its home pitch. They are battling other clubs at the top of the play-out table so getting the full 3 points in the table is the goal here and not settling for a draw. Botosani also has impressed as they look to escape the relegation zone of the play-out table. Their confidence surging with each win and they too will be pushing hard for the crucial 3 points. Considering this factor and the strong likelihood each club makes the net ripple at least once in this one, I am anticipating this gets to 3 goals, at least, via a 2-1 final. Botosani has played 11 matches since the start of February and 8 of the 11 (73%) have totaled at least 3 goals. Botosani visited here in late January and lost 2-0 but had scored at least 1 goal in each of 5 prior matches at Hermannstadt. They carry some momentum from the recent home successes but also have allowed 19 goals in last 12 games and the hosts have scored 29 matches in their last 16 matches at home! OVER 2 -120 in Hermanndstadt