NFL Betting: Chicago vs San Francisco

November 12, 2009

The first game on Thursday night since the season opener features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Chicago Bears. San Fran will be looking to avoid their 5th defeat in a row in a decisive battle for NFC playoff positions. The current football spreads show the 49ers as 3-point favorites, with the total set at 43.

Both squads arrive to this game after dropping their last one at home. Chicago was crushed by Arizona 41-21 and San Francisco was hammer 34-27 against Tennessee, they both need to improve their games if they want to this win.

Football betting fans should know that without an explosive attack the 49ers rely on defense and limiting turnovers in other to achieve success. Every time they have allowed more than 16 points or turnover the ball more than once, they have loss.

San Francisco has had trouble running the ball since Gore’s injury a few weeks ago and he finally had a big game last week, the first since his return. Gore should take advantage of Chicago’s run defense whose has sunk to the bottom half of the league. Expect Gore to run over 100 yards even though the Bears haven’t allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season.

On the other hand if 49ers can’t establish the run early and often they are going to put the game on Alex Smith hands. Despite TE Vernon Davis breakout season and rookie WR Michael Crabtree signing (14 receptions in his first 3 games), Smith is yet to win as starter this season. Here is some free football betting advice: The 49ers are 0-4 since they signed Michael Crabtree.

The Bears on the other side have struggled on both sides of the ball but especially on defense. Their defense a prevent scheme which prevents big plays but doesn’t force a lot of turnovers. In fact in the two games in which they were blown out (vs the Bengals and Cardinals) they allowed 10 drives over 55 yards, those drives resulted in 9 TD, without a doubt the D that we were used to see from Lovie Smith left when Brian Urlacker got hurt.

Since neither the defense nor the run game is winning games, the responsibility goes to Jay Cutler. The third year QB has struggled to find rhythm week in and week out with his young receivers.

If the Bears manage to establish the run with an irregular Matt Forte, Cutler will be able to take advantage on the SF scheme ready to stop the run with huge plays down the field. Expect Cutler to look to Devin Hester and Johnny Knox.

Consider these NFL betting trends: Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road and San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home. Also if you’re thinking of betting on the game total keep in mind it has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games and it has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 6 games.

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Posted by Steve Janus · Filed Under Football Betting 

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