Merril’s Dolphins at Panthers Picks

November 25, 2009

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Miami is playing just about average football on offense so far this season.  The Dolphins are averaging 24 points per game (versus teams that allow 21 ppg).  Their strength is their running game (156 yards per game), but their passing game behind second-year quarterback Chad Henne is extremely weak.  Henne is completing only 58.2% of his passes while averaging 166 yards on 6.2 yards per pass attempt (versus teams that allow 204 pypg, and 6.2 yppa).

But the Dolphins’ running game will face a stiff test tonight against a Panthers’ defensive line that has played well this year.  Carolina has held four of their last six opponents to 94 rushing yards or less, and overall, their defensive rushing numbers are pretty good.  They allow 128 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush (versus teams that average 4.4 ypr).

The Dolphins’ defense is very good against the run which is key when facing the solid ground attack of Carolina.  They are allowing 98 rushing yards per game on just 3.7 yards per rush (versus teams that average 122 rypg on 4.3 ypr).  Their secondary has been terrible as they allow 239 yards per game through the air on 7.7 yards per pass attempt (versus teams that average 6.9 yppa).

But the Dolphins are facing a weak Carolina passing attack under quarterback Jake Delhomme.  He is a big step down in class for a Dolphins’ defense that has already faced Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.  The Panthers only throw for an average of 175 yards per game on 6.0 yards per pass attempt.  Those numbers are extremely weak, and an indication that Carolina cannot take advantage of Miami’s defensive weakness of defending the pass.  With both teams much better at running the ball, we’ll see a low-scoring game tonight.

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Posted by Steve Janus · Filed Under Football Picks 

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