Free NFL Picks: 49ers at Colts

October 30, 2009

Widow’s NFL Free Pick for Sunday is 1* on Indianapolis Colts -11.5:  The Colts have everything figured out right now, while the 49ers are still searching for answers. San Francisco won’t find those answers in time for Sunday’s meeting with one of the hottest teams in the league this year, and the hottest team in the league stemming back to last season. Indy has now won 15 consecutive regular season games since beating the Patriots on 11/02/08. This team only knows one thing, and that’s winning football games. The 49ers are trying to figure out how to win, and now they will be doing it with a new starting quarterback in Alex Smith. They have tried Smith in the past, only to come up with disappointing results. He did throw 3 touchdown passes against Houston last week after coming in for Shaun Hill in his benching. But that was a Texans’ defense that is terrible against the pass, and the Colts happen to have one of the best passing defenses in the league. Indy is giving up just 12.8 points/game this season thanks in large part to their pass defense, which is giving up just 180 passing yards/game and 4.9 yards/attempt. The 49ers do have a good run defense, but that does them no good against Peyton Manning and the Colts, who average 29.2 points/game, 311 passing yards/game and 8.7 yards/pass attempt. The 49ers’ weakness defensively is against the pass, where they allow 236 passing yards/game and 6.5 yards/attempt. Indy has won 4 straight games by 17 or more points, and you can chalk up a 5th straight once this one goes final Sunday. Alex Smith is not the answer to the 49ers’ problems, and he’ll struggle against the Colts’ excellent pass defense. The Colts are 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a road blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Indy is an UNBEATEN 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Colts and lay the points.

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Posted by Steve Janus · Filed Under Football Picks 

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