Free NFL Pick 11/23/2008

Today’s free play from Matt Fargo.

The Raiders have been hit or miss all season with covering and this looks like one of those spots where it will be a hit. It is a revenge spot but I don’t pay much attention to that. More importantly, it is a division game and a big rival on less so while Oakland has hung around the last two weeks, it should be even more ready this week. After getting absolutely dominated against Atlanta three weeks ago, kudos go out to the Raiders for not quitting and playing hard the last two weeks.
Denver has a two-game lead in the AFC West and while this is a division game, it does not see this as a game it needs to go out and dominate. The Broncos are coming off two road wins that were hard fought and were not decided until the final minutes so if anything, this is a letdown game and one that is going to be tough to get up for. Yes it is the Raiders but they are 2-8 and with the Jets on deck, I totally see Denver sitting back and just trying to coast this one out.
The Raiders rushing defense has been a mess all season but it may finally catch a break here. The last five games they have been hit hard against the run but those games were against the Jets, Baltimore, Atlanta, Carolina and Miami who are ranked 9th, 3rd, 2nd, 6th and 12th respectively in the NFL in rushing offense. Denver is 18th in rushing offense but it is down to fourth string backs and recent acquisitions to carry the ball. Last week against Atlanta, three backs combined for 121 yards against the 22nd ranked defense.
The Oakland offense has been worse than the defense but again, a lot of that comes down to the defenses it has faced. The Raiders have gone against the 14th, 8th, 23rd, 3rd and 15th ranked defense in their last five games. There was no excuse for that game against Atlanta (23rd) but the rest have been solid units to face. Now Oakland goes up against the 29th ranked defense in the NFL as the Broncos have been a sieve all season and even more so at home where it is allowing 404.4 ypg.
The Raiders are 4-6 against the numbers this season which is better than Denver’s 3-6-1 ATS mark. They are coming off a cover in Miami last week and that sets up a solid situation in their favor. Play on road teams that have won fewer than 25 percent of their games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -2.3 ppg. 3* Oakland Raiders
Fargo bounced back with a winning NFL Week 11 after the Week 10 Sunday debacle! Since that Sunday, he has gone 7-2 (77.8%) to extend his season long NFL record to 43-32-3 (57.3%)! He keeps rolling along with his biggest report this Sunday as he has a 9* Non-Conference BLOWOUT! It is backed by a 25-8 ATS (75.8%) Power Situation! It all falls into place for a rout!

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