Ben Burns Monday Night Football Pick

Nobody does totals better than Ben Burns does.  On Monday Night he cashed in for his clients on the UNDER between the Titans and Texans, giving them just another easy winner.  Read his analysis below and see just how confident Burns is in the selections he offers.  Want another great deal?  Check out the $100 match bonus offered by Bodog to our readers.

I’m playing on Houston and Tennessee to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a very close and very high-scoring game against each other earlier in the season. That 9/20 meeting at Tennessee finished with a whopping 65 points, a 34-31 Houston victory. I had the Texans in that game, so wasn’t surprised to see them score the ‘upset.’ Looking back on it, getting seven points with the Texans was excellent value. In this evening’s rematch, thanks in part to the earlier result, I feel that the value now lies with the UNDER.

Looking back at the earlier meeting and we find that the over/under line opened at 41.5 and closed at just 40.5. This evening’s number is more than a touchdown higher, which is extremely significant. We’re now getting several key o/u numbers (41, 44, 47 etc) to work with, which weren’t available for the game two months ago.

Those backing the ‘over’ will point out that the Titans have been scoring a lot more points in recent weeks, since Vince Young took over at quarterback. That is true and Young has clearly provided a spark. However, a closer look shows that the Titans haven’t exactly been airing it out. Over the last three games, they threw the ball 15, 12 and 17 times. That resulted in 125, 163 and 210 total yards. That’s 498 in three games. To give that some perspective, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford – a rookie – threw for 422 yards, yesterday alone. He and Brady Quinn combined for 726 passing yards in that game.

Of course, if you’re running the ball really well, there’s no need to throw very often – the Titans have been putting up major yards on the ground. They have had quite a few big runs recently. But mostly, the success on the ground has been a result of constantly pounding the ball on the ground. Over their last three games, they’ve run the ball 49, 34 and 35 times. As you know, running the ball frequently helps to keep the clock moving, which is generally a good thing for those betting on the ‘under.’

The Titans recent winning streak has also seen a big improvement in their defense. Since giving up a whopping 59 points to the Patriots, they’ve allowed just 13, 27 and 17 points, an average of 19 per game.

Speaking of improved defense, the Texans have been quietly playing MUCH better defense than many people probably realize. Last time out, prior to their bye, they went into Indianapolis and limited Peyton Manning and the Colts to a mere 20 points. That marked the fourth straight time that they’d held their opponents to 21 points or less and the sixth straight time that they’d held their opponents to 28 points or less. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a profitable 5-1 in those games.

Looking at some o/u stats and we find that the Titans have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They’ve also seen the UNDER go 6-1 the last seven times that they played a game with a total in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

Last season, these teams combined for 43 points when they met in September, eclipsiing the total of 40. Many expected a high-scoring rematch and the o/u line for the game at Houston was higher, at 45. Yet, the teams combined for only 25 points, a 13-12 Houston victory. I look for this year’s rematch to also prove significantly lower-scoring than the earlier meeting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. *10 Top Nov. AFC South Total.

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